• Title/Summary/Keyword: Thompson model

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AN INVESTIGATION OF THE KOREAN GENERAL INSURANCE INDUSTRY: EVIDENCE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND IMPACT OF MACRO-ECONOMIC FACTORS ON LOSS RATIOS

  • Thompson, Ephraim Kwashie;Kim, So-Yeun
    • East Asian mathematical journal
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.617-641
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we first present a brief overview of the Korean general insurance market. We then explore the characteristics of the loss ratios of the Korean general insurance industry and apply Markov regime-switching methodology to model the loss ratios of these insurance companies by line of business based on changes in economic regimes. This study applies a number of confirmatory tests such as Zivot-Andrews test (2002), the Chow (1960) test and the Bai and Perron (1998) to confirm the presence of structural breaks in the time series of the loss ratios by line of business. Then, we employ Markov regime-switching methodology to model these loss ratios. We find empirical evidence that the loss ratios reported by insurance companies in Korea is characterized by two distinct regimes; a regime with high volatility and a regime with low volatility, except for vehicle insurance. Our analyses suggest that macro-economic conditions have significant explanatory effect on loss ratios but the direction of effect differs based on the line of business and the regime. Unlike previous studies that have applied linear regressions or divided the samples into different periods and then apply linear regressions to model loss ratios, we argue for the application of Markov regime-switching methodology, which are able to automatically distinguish the different regimes that may be associated with the movements of loss ratios based on differing economic conditions and regulatory upheavals. This study provides a more in depth understanding of loss ratios in the general insurance industry and will be of value to insurance practitioners in modelling the loss ratios associated with their businesses to aid in their decision making. The results may also provide a basis for further studies in other markets apart from Korea as well as for shaping policy decisions related to loss ratios.

Thin Layer Drying Model of Sorghum

  • Kim, Hong-Sik;Kim, Oui-Woung;Kim, Hoon;Lee, Hyo-Jai;Han, Jae-Woong
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.357-364
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study was performed to define the drying characteristics of sorghum by developing thin layer drying equations and evaluating various grain drying equations. Thin layer drying equations lay the foundation characteristics to establish the thick layer drying equations, which can be adopted to determine the design conditions for an agricultural dryer. Methods: The drying rate of sorghum was measured under three levels of drying temperature ($40^{\circ}C$, $50^{\circ}C$, and $60^{\circ}C$) and relative humidity (30%, 40%, and 50%) to analyze the drying process and investigate the drying conditions. The drying experiment was performed until the weight of sorghum became constant. The experimental constants of four thin layer drying models were determined by developing a non-linear regression model along with the drying experiment results. Result: The half response time (moisture ratio = 0.5) of drying, which is an index of the drying rate, was increased as the drying temperature was high and relative humidity was low. When the drying temperature was $40^{\circ}C$ at a relative humidity (RH) of 50%, the maximum half response time of drying was 2.8 h. Contrastingly, the maximum half response time of drying was 1.2 h when the drying temperature was $60^{\circ}C$ at 30% RH. The coefficient of determination for the Lewis model, simplified diffusion model, Page model, and Thompson model was respectively 0.9976, 0.9977, 0.9340, and 0.9783. The Lewis model and the simplified diffusion model satisfied the drying conditions by showing the average coefficient of determination of the experimental constants and predicted values of the model as 0.9976 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.0236. Conclusion: The simplified diffusion model was the most suitable for every drying condition of drying temperature and relative humidity, and the model for the thin layer drying is expected to be useful to develop the thick layer drying model.

Ozone Damage Assessment of Aspen at the Five Sites in Seoul Using a Computer Simulation Model of Individual Tree Growth, TREGRO

  • Yun, Sung-Chul;John A. Laurence;Park, Eun-Woo
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.210-216
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    • 1999
  • TREGRO, a computer simulation model of individual tree growth, was applied to estimate ozone ($\textrm{O}_3$) effects on aspen(Populus tremuloides) growth under ambient and 1.7 times ambient $\textrm{O}_3$ of Seoul in 1996. The three highest $\textrm{O}_3$ (Kuui-dong, Ssangmun-dong, Sungsoo-dong) and the two lowest $\textrm{O}_3$ sites (Mapo-dong, Namgajwa-dong) were evaluated. The current ambient $\textrm{O}_3$ did not affect aspen growth compared to simulation without $\textrm{O}_3$. The only effect was 6.6 percent of total assimilated carbonloss at Ssangmun-dong where the level of $\textrm{O}_3$ was greatest among the 21 sites examined. Decrease as much as 50 percent of total carbon gain was calculated at 1.7 times ambient $\textrm{O}_3$ of the three highest sites. The carbon loss by $\textrm{O}_3$ came from biomass of tissues and total nonstructural cabron (TNC) such as starch and sugar. The most sensitive fraction was TNC and the next was root biomass. Foliage mass was not affected by $\textrm{O}_3$. Structural biomass loss was at best 1 to 3 percent at 1.7 times ambient $\textrm{O}_3$ at the two lowest sites. The daily carbon simulation was affected by $\textrm{O}_3$ mainly during Growth Period 4 (Jul. 21-Oct. 26). Correlations between site, dose, and the simulated responses of aspen (tissue biomass, TNC, respiration, and senescence) ranged from -0.703 to -0.973 depending on the plant responses. The ozone effects on poplar in Seoul are not severe currently, but are probably measurable at Ssangmun-dong. However, severe $\textrm{O}_3$ effects on biomass would occur if $\textrm{O}_3$ levels increase to 1.7 times ambient $\textrm{O}_3$ in Seoul. In addition, v could weaken the trees thus increasing susceptibility to pathogens or insects.

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How User's Participation in Feasibility Study Enhances Use of Business Intelligence Systems

  • Kim, Nam Gyu;Kim, Sung Kun
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2017
  • Business Intelligence (BI) system is a strategic tool that presents an analytical perspective about business and external environments. Even though its strategic value was well known, users often avoid using it or adopt it ceremonially. In fact, over 50 per cent of BI projects worldwide are reported to end in failure. Such an unexpectedly lower success rate has been a key issue in BI studies. In order to enhance a proper use of information systems, MIS field provided a number of theoretical constructs. One example is Goodhue & Thompson's Task-Technology Fit (TTF). In addition, internalization, the degree to which people make their own effort to modify behavior, was recently suggested as another important determinant of use. Though in MIS community both TTF and internalization proved to be a key determinant of system use, there has been not much study aiming to discover antecedents influencing these constructs. In this study we assert that user participation should be highlighted in BI projects. Especially, we emphasize user participation at the phase of feasibility study that is mainly conducted to determine whether a BI system is essentially necessary and practicable. Our research model employs participative feasibility study as a major antecedent for TTF and internalization that consequently will lead to user satisfaction and actual use. This model was empirically tested on 121 BI system users. The result shows that user participation in feasibility study is positively associated with TTF and internalization, each being related to user satisfaction and system use. It implies that, if an organization has BI users get involved in strategic feasibility study phase, the BI system would turn out to fit users' tasks and, furthermore, users would put more efforts spontaneously in order to use it properly.

MODELING ACCURATE INTEREST IN CASH FLOWS OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS TOWARD IMPROVED FORECASTING OF COST OF CAPITAL

  • Gunnar Lucko;Richard C. Thompson, Jr.
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.467-474
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    • 2013
  • Construction contactors must continuously seek to improve their cash flows, which reside at the heart of their financial success. They require careful planning, analysis, and optimization to avoid the risk of bankruptcy, remain profitable, and secure long-term growth. Sources of cash include bank loans and retained earnings, which are conceptually similar in that they both incur a cost of capital. Financial management therefore requires accurate yet customizable modeling capabilities that can quantify all expenses, including said cost of capital. However, currently existing cash flow models in construction engineering and management have strongly simplified the manner in which interest is assessed, which may even lead to overstating it at a disadvantage to contractors. The variable nature of cash balances, especially in the early phases of construction projects, contribute to this challenging issue. This research therefore extends a new cash flow model with an accurate interest calculation. It utilizes singularity functions, so called because of their ability to flexibly model changes across any number of different ranges. The interest function is continuous for activity costs of any duration and allows the realistic case that activities may begin between integer time periods, which are often calendar months. Such fractional interest calculation has hitherto been lacking from the literature. It also provides insights into the self-referential behavior of compound interest for variable cash balances. The contribution of this study is twofold; augmenting the corpus of financial analysis theory with a new interest formula, whose strengths include its generic nature and that it can be evaluated at any fractional value of time, and providing construction managers with a tool to help improve and fine-tune the financial performance of their projects.

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Thin Layer Drying and Quality Characteristics of Ainsliaea acerifolia Sch. Bip. Using Far Infrared Radiation (원적외선을 이용한 단풍취의 박층 건조 및 품질 특성)

  • Ning, Xiao Feng;Li, He;Kang, Tae Hwan;Lee, Jun Soo;Lee, Jeong Hyun;Ha, Chung Su
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.884-892
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the drying characteristics and drying models of Ainsliaea acerifolia Sch. Bip. using far-infrared thin layer drying. Far-infrared thin layer drying test on Ainsliaea acerifolia Sch. Bip. was conducted at two air velocities of 0.6 and 0.8 m/sec, as well as three drying temperatures of 40, 45, and $50^{\circ}C$ respectively. The drying models were estimated using coefficient of determination and root mean square error. Drying characteristics were analyzed based on factors such as drying rate, leaf color changes, antioxidant activity, and contents of polyphenolics and flavonoids. The results revealed that increases in drying temperature and air velocity caused a reduction in drying time. The Thompson model was considered suitable for thin layer drying using far-infrared radiation for Ainsliaea accerifolia Sch. Bip. Greenness and yellowness values decreased and lightness values increased after far-infrared thin layer drying, and the color difference (${\Delta}E$) values at $40^{\circ}C$ were higher than those at $45^{\circ}C$ and $50^{\circ}C$. The antioxidant properties of Ainsliaea acerifolia Sch. Bip. decreased under all far-infrared thin layer drying conditions, and the highest polyphenolic content (37.9 mg/g), flavonoid content (22.7 mg/g), DPPH radical scavenging activity (32.5), and ABTS radical scavenging activity (31.1) were observed at a drying temperature of $40^{\circ}C$ with an air velocity of 0.8 m/sec.

Setting limits for water use in the Wairarapa Valley, New Zealand

  • Mike, Thompson
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.227-227
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    • 2015
  • The Wairarapa Valley occupies a predominantly rural area in the lower North Island of New Zealand. It supports a mix of intensive farming (dairy), dry stock farming (sheep and beef cattle) and horticulture (including wine grapes). The valley floor is traversed by the Ruamahanga River, the largest river in the Wellington region with a total catchment area of 3,430 km2. Environmental, cultural and recreational values associated with this Ruamahanga River are very high. The alluvial gravel and sand aquifers of the Wairarapa Valley, support productive groundwater aquifers at depths of up to 100 metres below ground while the Ruamahanga River and its tributaries present a further source of water for users. Water is allocated to users via resource consents by Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC). With intensifying land use, demand from the surface and groundwater resources of the Wairarapa Valley has increased substantially in recent times and careful management is needed to ensure values are maintained. This paper describes the approach being taken to manage water resources in the Wairarapa Valley and redefine appropriate limits of sustainable water use. There are three key parts: Quantifying the groundwater resource. A FEFLOW numerical groundwater flow model was developed by GWRC. This modelling phase provided a much improved understanding of aquifer recharge and abstraction processes. It also began to reveal the extent of hydraulic connection between aquifer and river systems and the importance of moving towards an integrated (conjunctive) approach to allocating water. Development of a conjunctive management framework. The FEFLOW model was used to quantify the stream flow depletion impacts of a range of groundwater abstraction scenarios. From this, three abstraction categories (A, B and C) that describe diminishing degrees of hydraulic connection between ground and surface water resources were mapped in 3 dimensions across the Valley. Interim allocation limits have been defined for each of 17 discrete management units within the valley based on both local scale aquifer recharge and stream flow depletion criteria but also cumulative impacts at the valley-wide scale. These allocation limits are to be further refined into agreed final limits through a community-led decision making process. Community involvement in the limit setting process. Historically in New Zealand, limits for sustainable resource use have been established primarily on the basis of 'hard science' and the decision making process has been driven by regional councils. Community involvement in limit setting processes has been through consultation rather than active participation. Recent legislation in the form of a National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management (2011) is reforming this approach. In particular, collaborative consensus-based decision making with active engagement from stakeholders is now expected. With this in mind, a committee of Wairarapa local people with a wide range of backgrounds was established in 2014. The role of this committee is to make final recommendations about resource use limits (including allocation of water) that reflect the aspirations of the communities they represent. To assist the committee in taking a holistic view it is intended that the existing numerical groundwater flow models will be coupled with with surface flow, contaminant transport, biological and economic models. This will provide the basis for assessing the likely outcomes of a range of future land use and resource limit scenarios.

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The Effects of In-service Education of Newborn's Behavior Response on the Nurse-Newborn Play Interaction (신생아의 행동반응에 대한 실무교육이 간호사와 신생아와의 유희적 상호작용에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Young-Ok
    • Korean Parent-Child Health Journal
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to find out the effect of in-service education on the nurse-newborn play interaction. The research design adopted the pre-experimental design applied only for one pretest-posttest group and Barnard's mother-infant interaction model was used as a conceptual framework. The subjects were 26 nurses who were selected from 2 nurseries in general hospital in Pusan, and 52 healthy newborns who were after 4 days from birth during data collection period at the same hospital. The data were collected from June 1st to October 5th in 2001, by video-taping for the interactive behaviors between the nurse and the newborn, played for 5 minutes in nurseries 2 weeks before and after in-service education. The in-service education consisted of the newborn's behavior responses focused on the newborn baby's states, behavior, cues and state modulation, 3 times per 1 week, 90 minutes per 1 time, lecture, demonstration and hand out project. The experimental tool used for this research was Ha Young-Soo's Korean translation of the Maternal-Infant Play Interaction Scale by Thompson, Jody Baird, Sara Gordman, Bryant(1982), some parts of which were adapted to be suitable for the purpose of this research. Mother and baby scale by Wolke & James-Roberts(1987) was also modified and used as the criterion of nurse's perception of a newborn baby. The results of this study were as follows: 1. This result supported the major hypothesis : After the intervention of in-service education, the nurse and newborn play interaction was promoted. 2. After intervention of in-service education, the nurse perception of newborn, especially the criteria of newborn's reaction was promoted., The results of this research confirm that in-service education on the newborn's behavior responses such as states, behavior, cues and state modulation is an effective way to improve the interaction between the nurse and the baby. It elevated the nurse's sensitivities to the baby's needs. Therefore, in-service education can change the conditions of current nursing practice mostly centered on physical care into a better one in which nurses consider the emotional, social, and intellectual development stages of babies. Accordingly, in-service education contributed to promoting the effective nurse-newborn play interaction so positively.

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