• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제67권2호
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• pp.112-118
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• 2018

In recent years, decentralized power have been increasing due to environmental problems, liberalization of electricity markets and technological developments. These changes have led to the evolution of power generation, transmission, and distribution into discrete sectors and the division of integrated power systems. Therefore, studies are underway to efficiently supply power and reduce losses to each sector's demand. This is a major concern for system planners and operators, as it accounts for a relatively high proportion of total power, with a transmission and distribution loss of 4-6%. Therefore, this paper analyzes the status of loss management based on the current transmission and distribution loss rate of each country and transmission loss management cases of each national power company, and proposes a loss rate prediction algorithm according to the long-term transmission system plan. The proposed algorithm predicts the demand-based long-term evolution and the loss rate of the grid to which the transmission plan is applied.

• 에너지공학
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.114-124
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• 2009

지식경제부(MKE)는 매2년마다 전력수급기본계획을 수립한다. 본 논문에서는 전력수급기본계획 수립시 전력수요를 과대 또는 과소로 예측한 것이 차기 전력수급기본계획 수립시 전원혼합(Energy Mix)에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 전력수요 자료는 2005년도에 예측한 제3차 전력수급기본계획의 전망치를 이용하였고 전원혼합을 도출하기 위하여 전력거래소(KPX)에서 활용하고 있는 WASP 전산모형을 단순화한 시뮬레이션 모형을 구축하였다. 2005년도 전력수요를 적정, 5% 과대 그리고 5% 과소 예측한 경우에 대하여 각각 단순화한 시뮬레이션 모형을 이용하여 2005년도 전력수급기본계획의 전원혼합을 도출하였다. 이 3가지 전원혼합을 초기조건으로 하여 2005년도의 적정 전력수요가 2007년 이후에 적용된다고 보고 2007년도에 차기 전력수급기본계획의 전원혼합을 도출하였다. 전력수요가 적정일 경우, 2005년도와 2007년도 전력수급 기본계획의 전력수요는 동일하므로 전원혼합에 변화가 없다. 전력수요를 5% 과대 또는 5% 과소 예측한 경우, 계획된 발전소 건설을 차기 전력수급기본계획 수립시 줄이거나 늘려야 하는데 건설기간이 짧은 LNG 발전소가 그 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• 제56권5호
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• pp.655-662
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• 2018

신 기후체제 출범에 따른 기후변화의 효율적 대응을 위해 정부는 분산형 전원의 확대를 모색하고 있다. 이 중 가스열병합발전(CHP)을 중심으로 하는 집단에너지 시스템이 가장 현실적인 대안으로써 받아들여지고 있다. 한편 최근 발표된 8차 전력수급 기본계획을 통해 정부는 기저 발전 중심에서 친환경 발전 위주로 에너지 패러다임의 변화를 공표하였다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 에너지 패러다임의 변화가 CHP의 열 생산 패턴을 변화시켜 집단에너지 공헌이익에 미칠 수 있는 정량적인 손익 효과를 분석하는 연구를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 먼저 상용화된 전력시장 종합분석 프로그램을 활용하여 7,8차 수급계획별 전력시장 장기 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다. 또한 현재 수도권에서 830 MW급 CHP를 운영 중인 사업자의 실적을 활용하여 CHP 운전 Mode별로 전력생산량과 열 생산량을 산정할 수 있는 CHP 운영모델을 구성하였다. 이를 바탕으로 상용화된 집단에너지 최적운영 프로그램을 통해 CHP의 Life-Cycle 동안의 최대의 운영수익을 실현할 수 있는 운전 최적화를 수행하였다. 그 결과 정부의 에너지 패러다임의 변화는 CHP의 급전지시량을 증가시키고 이로 인해 열 생산원가가 하락하여 사업자의 공헌이익이 30년 동안 909억 증가함을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2009년도 제40회 하계학술대회
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• pp.357_358
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• 2009

According to the 4th BPE(Basic Plan for long-term Electricity Supply and Demand), Electricity demand of Jeju island in 2012 will be reached to 682MW. Jeju island will be faced with severe shortage of electricty, also needed to find transport route to supply green energy which will be made from "Carbon free island" energy policy toward land at that time. For that reason, The plan which construct 400MW size HVDC connection line was decided for potential supply stabilization and transportation of green energy. KEPCO organized special construction office not only to observe the successful project completion which aims 2011 December but also to build up professional manpower. KEPCO is putting spur to the HVDC project these days. Construction site of converter stations has been already confirmed and contracts of cable, converter have done as per turn-key early this year. On this report, we would like to discuss about project scheme, main characteristics of system, and the furture progress plan of "Jindo~Jeju HVDC construction project expecially converter station part" which is being pushed by KEPCO.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제61권4호
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• pp.534-541
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• 2012

This paper tries to elicit an optimal generation mix of Korea. Two approaches, using the screening curve method and taking advantage of a generation expansion planning tool, WASP-IV, are applied in getting the mix. The data used in this study is based on the 5th basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand. The Load Duration Curve, that is needed for applying Screening Curve Method(SCM), is made based on the load profile in 2010. In our using SCM, the nuclear plant's operation characteristic, carbon emission cost and spinning reserve are considered. In using WASP-IV to get the adequate generation mix, the base and target demand forecasts in the 5th basic plan are used and the carbon emission cost is also considered. In this paper, It introduces the domestic adequacy generation mix in 2024 though SCM and WASP-IV.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제66권12호
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• pp.1712-1720
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• 2017

In South Korea, minimum reserve rate, which is to satisfy reliability standard, has been determined by simulation result using WASP. But, it is still controversial whether the level of minimum reserve rate is adequate. Thus, in this study, various analyses of minimum reserve rate are being conducted. WASP uses the probabilistic simulation technique to evaluate whether reliability standard is satisfied. In this process, forced outage rate and maintenance periods of each generator play important roles. Especially, the long-term plan can be varied depending on how maintenance periods deal with. In order to model maintenance periods in the probabilistic simulation technique, WASP uses derating method. However, broad analyses have to be conducted because there are various ways including derating method to model maintenance periods which result in different results. Therefore, in this paper, 3 different maintenance outage rate modeling methods are applied to arbitrarily modeled system based on the basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand of South Korea. Results show impact of each modeling method on minimum reserve rate.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.79-91
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• 2019

The capacity credit (CC) is a key metric for mid- to long-term power system capacity planning. The purpose of this study is to estimate the CCs of domestic wind turbines. Based on hourly capacity factor (CF) data during the seven years from 2011 to 2017, the new so-called probabilistic CF scheme is introduced to effectively reflect the variability of CFs on CC estimation. The CCs are then estimated through the CF-based method and the ELCC (Effective Load Carrying Capability) method reflecting the probabilistic CF scheme, and the results are compared. The results show that the CC value 0.019 for domestic wind turbines proposed in the $8^{th}$ Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand corresponds to the CC with a confidence level slightly lower than 95%.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권11호
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• pp.453-462
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• 2006

This paper evaluates the reliability of KEPCO system using TRELSS, which is a probabilistic reliability evaluation program for large-scaled power system. In order to reflect the characteristic of KEPCO system, the sensitivity of reliability indices such as LOLP, EDLC, EENS and Energy Curtailment for variations of TRELSS parameter and input data was analyzed. Additionally, probabilistic reliability of KEPCO system reflecting sensitivity analysis results was systematically evaluated and simulated. Finally, maximum acceptable FOR of KEPCO system to satisfy reliability criterion, which meet in process of establishing the basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand is suggested.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.231-233
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• 2007

구조개편 이후 전력수급계획 수립여건이 한전의 독점적 계책에서 사업자 건설의향으로 전환됨에 따라 신규설비 건설계획은 수익성 위주로 전환되었다. 이에 따라 본 논문에서는 기저선비(원자력, 석탄화력) 운전효율성 항상 차원에서 건설되던 양수설비의 적정 설비규모를 계통 공급신뢰도 측면, 에너지 이응 효율성 향상 측면, 전력시장에서의 경제성 측면에서 검토하여 최적전원구성(Best Fuel Mix) 유도론 위한 정책적 방향을 제시하였다.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.118-127
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• 2011

An IGCC was evaluated as one of the next generation technologies that would be able to substitute for coal-fired power plants. According to "The 4th Basic Plan of Long-term Electricity Supply & Demand" which is developed by the Electricity Business Acts, the first IGCC will be operated at 2015. Like other new and renewable energy such as solar PV, Fuel cell, The IGCC is considered as non-competitive generation technology because it is not maturity technology. Before the commercial operation of an IGCC in our electricity market, its economic feasibility under the Korean electricity market, which is cost-based trading system, is studied to find out institutional support system. The results of feasibility summarized that under the current electricity trading system, if the IGCC is considered like a conventional plant such as nuclear or coal-fired power plants, it will not be expected that its investment will be recouped within life-time. The reason is that the availability of an IGCC will plummet since 2016 when several nuclear and coal-fired power plants will be constructed additionally. To ensure the reasonable return on investment (NPV>0 IRR>Discount rate), the availability of IGCC should be higher than 77%. To do so, the current electricity trading system is amended that the IGCC generator must be considered as renewable generators to set up Price Setting Schedule and it should be considered as pick load generators, not Genco's coal fired-generators, in the Settlement Payment.