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낙동강 하구 모래 자갈 및 자갈층에 시공된 현장타설말뚝의 주면마찰력 평가 (Evaluation on Side Resistance of Drilled Shafts Constructed on Sandy Gravel and Gravel Layers in Nakdong River Estuary )

  • 최동노;김태형;전병한;전준서;김채민
    • 한국지반신소재학회논문집
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • 최근 낙동강 하구에 많은 구조물이 건설되고 있으며 말뚝기초는 모래층 및 자갈층에 시공되고 있다. 이 연구에서는 낙동강 하구의 모래 자갈층 및 자갈층에 시공된 6개의 현장타설말뚝의 정재하시험 및 양방향재하시험 결과를 통해 비점성토층의 주면마찰력을 분석하였다. 또한 국·내외 설계기준인 FHWA(1999), KDS(2021), AIJ(2004)에 따라 계산된 주면마찰력과 실험값을 비교하였다. 6개 말뚝의 재하시험 결과를 통해 확인된 주면마찰력은 120~444kPa로 나타났다. 설계기준에 따라 산정한 주면마찰력은 69.3~170kPa이었으며 시험값 대비 50% 수준으로 나타났으며 이를 통해 설계기준들이 비점성토층에 근입된 현장타설말뚝의 주면마찰력을 상당히 보수적으로 평가하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 국내 낙동강 하구 모래 자갈층 및 자갈층의 주면마찰력 산정을 위한 적절한 국내 제안식이 개발되어야 할 것으로 판단되었다.

미하마 원전경험에 대한 SGTR 사고해석 (Analyses of SGTR Accident With Mihama Unit Experience)

  • 이석호;김갑;김효정;은영수
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1994
  • 1991년 2월 미하마원전에서 발생한 증기발생기 세관 파열사고에 대한 경험을 바탕으로, 본 사고에 대한 고리 1호기의 대처능력을 평가하기 위하여 해석을 수행하였다. 고리 1호기의 계통설계 및 운전조건은 미하마 2호기와 아주 유사하기 때문에 고리 1호기에서 발생한 가상의 증기발생기 세관 파열사고시의 사고경위 및 전개에 대한 평가가 필요하였다. 해석은 고리 1호기 EOP를 근거로 현실적으로 가능하게 수행되었다. 해석결과, 파열된 세관을 통한 누출은 사고후 약 40분 후에 정지되었으며, 고리 1호기는 유사한 증기발생기 세관 파열사고의 경우 충분한 대처능력이 있음을 보였다. 그러나, SI 신호작동후 소외전원으로 부터의 비안전등급 AC전원으로 단절되는 설계에 대한 재고가 필요하며, EOP의 운전절차가 운전원의 적절한 판단을 요구하기에는 다소 충분치 못함을 보였다. 또한 미하마 원전의 사고를 실험적으로 모사한 LSTF의 실험결과를 이용 해석코드인 RELAP5/MOD3의 평가능력에 대하여 해석을 수행하였다. 해석결과 코드는 사고 초기의 누설량 예측을 제외하고는 일반적으로 실험결과와 잘 일치하고 있음을 보였다.

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유방암 환자 사망의 역학적 특성과 건강증진 방안 : 국가 암등록 자료를 이용하여 (Epidemiologic Characteristics of Death in Breast Cancer Patients and Health Promotion Plans : Using Korean Cancer Registry data)

  • 남영희
    • 한국학교ㆍ지역보건교육학회지
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to identify the major influencing factors of breast cancer death and to suggest policy measures to promote the health of breast cancer patients. Methods: The method of this study performed statistical analysis by applying weights to 2,300 cases of breast cancer registration statistics in Korea collected in 2018 due to the relatively small number of mortality data compared to survival. Statistical processing of the collected data was analyzed using SPSS 26.0. Results: The epidemiologic characteristics of death in breast cancer patients were 31.8% in those aged 70 years or older, and the mortality rate was 5.25 times higher in patients aged 70 years or older than those aged 39 years or younger. The anatomical site code was 36.4% in C50.4~C50.6, and the mortality rate was 1.82 times higher in C50.4~C50.6 than in C50.0~C50.1. The tumor size was 40.4% and larger than 4cm, and the mortality rate was 4.53 times higher in tumors larger than 4cm than those smaller than 1cm. The degree of differentiation was 13.9% in the poorly differentiated group, and the mortality rate was 4.38 times higher in the poorly differentiated group than in the highly differentiated group. In the hormone receptor test, non-triple negative cases were 59.6%, and the mortality rate was 0.57 times lower in non-triple negative cases than in triple negative cases. As for lymph node involvement, the presence or absence of lymph node involvement was 78.8%, and the mortality rate with lymph node involvement was 1.36 times higher than that without lymph node involvement. The survival period of 13 to 24 months was the highest at 26.5%, and the average survival period was 25.68 months (±14.830). Conclusion: A policy to advance the timing of national health examinations for early detection of breast cancer is necessary. In addition, a bill for the mandatory placement of health educators in medical institutions for patients with special diseases such as breast cancer should be prepared.

Three-dimensional thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling analysis on the full-scale module of helium-cooled tritium-breeding blanket

  • Qiang Lian;Simiao Tang;Longxiang Zhu;Luteng Zhang;Wan Sun;Shanshan Bu;Liangming Pan;Wenxi Tian;Suizheng Qiu;G.H. Su;Xinghua Wu;Xiaoyu Wang
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제55권11호
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    • pp.4274-4281
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    • 2023
  • Blanket is of vital importance for engineering application of the fusion reactor. Nuclear heat deposition in materials is the main heat source in blanket structure. In this paper, the three-dimensional method for thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling analysis is developed and applied for the full-scale module of the helium-cooled ceramic breeder tritium breeding blanket (HCCB TBB) designed for China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR). The explicit coupling scheme is used to support data transfer for coupling analysis based on cell-to-cell mapping method. The coupling algorithm is realized by the user-defined function compiled in Fluent. The three-dimensional model is established, and then the coupling analysis is performed using the paralleled Coupling Analysis of Thermal-hydraulics and Neutronics Interface Code (CATNIC). The results reveal the relatively small influence of the coupling analysis compared to the traditional method using the radial fitting function of internal heat source. However, the coupling analysis method is quite important considering the nonuniform distribution of the neutron wall loading (NWL) along the poloidal direction. Finally, the structure optimization of the blanket is carried out using the coupling method to satisfy the thermal requirement of all materials. The nonlinear effect between thermal-hydraulics and neutronics is found during the blanket structure optimization, and the tritium production performance is slightly reduced after optimization. Such an adverse effect should be thoroughly evaluated in the future work.

Evaluation of the CNESTEN's TRIGA Mark II research reactor physical parameters with TRIPOLI-4® and MCNP

  • H. Ghninou;A. Gruel;A. Lyoussi;C. Reynard-Carette;C. El Younoussi;B. El Bakkari;Y. Boulaich
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제55권12호
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    • pp.4447-4464
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    • 2023
  • This paper focuses on the development of a new computational model of the CNESTEN's TRIGA Mark II research reactor using the 3D continuous energy Monte-Carlo code TRIPOLI-4 (T4). This new model was developed to assess neutronic simulations and determine quantities of interest such as kinetic parameters of the reactor, control rods worth, power peaking factors and neutron flux distributions. This model is also a key tool used to accurately design new experiments in the TRIGA reactor, to analyze these experiments and to carry out sensitivity and uncertainty studies. The geometry and materials data, as part of the MCNP reference model, were used to build the T4 model. In this regard, the differences between the two models are mainly due to mathematical approaches of both codes. Indeed, the study presented in this article is divided into two parts: the first part deals with the development and the validation of the T4 model. The results obtained with the T4 model were compared to the existing MCNP reference model and to the experimental results from the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Different core configurations were investigated via simulations to test the computational model reliability in predicting the physical parameters of the reactor. As a fairly good agreement among the results was deduced, it seems reasonable to assume that the T4 model can accurately reproduce the MCNP calculated values. The second part of this study is devoted to the sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) studies that were carried out to quantify the nuclear data uncertainty in the multiplication factor keff. For that purpose, the T4 model was used to calculate the sensitivity profiles of the keff to the nuclear data. The integrated-sensitivities were compared to the results obtained from the previous works that were carried out with MCNP and SCALE-6.2 simulation tools and differences of less than 5% were obtained for most of these quantities except for the C-graphite sensitivities. Moreover, the nuclear data uncertainties in the keff were derived using the COMAC-V2.1 covariance matrices library and the calculated sensitivities. The results have shown that the total nuclear data uncertainty in the keff is around 585 pcm using the COMAC-V2.1. This study also demonstrates that the contribution of zirconium isotopes to the nuclear data uncertainty in the keff is not negligible and should be taken into account when performing S/U analysis.

Field Studios of In-situ Aerobic Cometabolism of Chlorinated Aliphatic Hydrocarbons

  • Semprini, Lewts
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지하수토양환경학회 2004년도 총회 및 춘계학술발표회
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    • pp.3-4
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    • 2004
  • Results will be presented from two field studies that evaluated the in-situ treatment of chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs) using aerobic cometabolism. In the first study, a cometabolic air sparging (CAS) demonstration was conducted at McClellan Air Force Base (AFB), California, to treat chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs) in groundwater using propane as the cometabolic substrate. A propane-biostimulated zone was sparged with a propane/air mixture and a control zone was sparged with air alone. Propane-utilizers were effectively stimulated in the saturated zone with repeated intermediate sparging of propane and air. Propane delivery, however, was not uniform, with propane mainly observed in down-gradient observation wells. Trichloroethene (TCE), cis-1, 2-dichloroethene (c-DCE), and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration levels decreased in proportion with propane usage, with c-DCE decreasing more rapidly than TCE. The more rapid removal of c-DCE indicated biotransformation and not just physical removal by stripping. Propane utilization rates and rates of CAH removal slowed after three to four months of repeated propane additions, which coincided with tile depletion of nitrogen (as nitrate). Ammonia was then added to the propane/air mixture as a nitrogen source. After a six-month period between propane additions, rapid propane-utilization was observed. Nitrate was present due to groundwater flow into the treatment zone and/or by the oxidation of tile previously injected ammonia. In the propane-stimulated zone, c-DCE concentrations decreased below tile detection limit (1 $\mu$g/L), and TCE concentrations ranged from less than 5 $\mu$g/L to 30 $\mu$g/L, representing removals of 90 to 97%. In the air sparged control zone, TCE was removed at only two monitoring locations nearest the sparge-well, to concentrations of 15 $\mu$g/L and 60 $\mu$g/L. The responses indicate that stripping as well as biological treatment were responsible for the removal of contaminants in the biostimulated zone, with biostimulation enhancing removals to lower contaminant levels. As part of that study bacterial population shifts that occurred in the groundwater during CAS and air sparging control were evaluated by length heterogeneity polymerase chain reaction (LH-PCR) fragment analysis. The results showed that an organism(5) that had a fragment size of 385 base pairs (385 bp) was positively correlated with propane removal rates. The 385 bp fragment consisted of up to 83% of the total fragments in the analysis when propane removal rates peaked. A 16S rRNA clone library made from the bacteria sampled in propane sparged groundwater included clones of a TM7 division bacterium that had a 385bp LH-PCR fragment; no other bacterial species with this fragment size were detected. Both propane removal rates and the 385bp LH-PCR fragment decreased as nitrate levels in the groundwater decreased. In the second study the potential for bioaugmentation of a butane culture was evaluated in a series of field tests conducted at the Moffett Field Air Station in California. A butane-utilizing mixed culture that was effective in transforming 1, 1-dichloroethene (1, 1-DCE), 1, 1, 1-trichloroethane (1, 1, 1-TCA), and 1, 1-dichloroethane (1, 1-DCA) was added to the saturated zone at the test site. This mixture of contaminants was evaluated since they are often present as together as the result of 1, 1, 1-TCA contamination and the abiotic and biotic transformation of 1, 1, 1-TCA to 1, 1-DCE and 1, 1-DCA. Model simulations were performed prior to the initiation of the field study. The simulations were performed with a transport code that included processes for in-situ cometabolism, including microbial growth and decay, substrate and oxygen utilization, and the cometabolism of dual contaminants (1, 1-DCE and 1, 1, 1-TCA). Based on the results of detailed kinetic studies with the culture, cometabolic transformation kinetics were incorporated that butane mixed-inhibition on 1, 1-DCE and 1, 1, 1-TCA transformation, and competitive inhibition of 1, 1-DCE and 1, 1, 1-TCA on butane utilization. A transformation capacity term was also included in the model formation that results in cell loss due to contaminant transformation. Parameters for the model simulations were determined independently in kinetic studies with the butane-utilizing culture and through batch microcosm tests with groundwater and aquifer solids from the field test zone with the butane-utilizing culture added. In microcosm tests, the model simulated well the repetitive utilization of butane and cometabolism of 1.1, 1-TCA and 1, 1-DCE, as well as the transformation of 1, 1-DCE as it was repeatedly transformed at increased aqueous concentrations. Model simulations were then performed under the transport conditions of the field test to explore the effects of the bioaugmentation dose and the response of the system to tile biostimulation with alternating pulses of dissolved butane and oxygen in the presence of 1, 1-DCE (50 $\mu$g/L) and 1, 1, 1-TCA (250 $\mu$g/L). A uniform aquifer bioaugmentation dose of 0.5 mg/L of cells resulted in complete utilization of the butane 2-meters downgradient of the injection well within 200-hrs of bioaugmentation and butane addition. 1, 1-DCE was much more rapidly transformed than 1, 1, 1-TCA, and efficient 1, 1, 1-TCA removal occurred only after 1, 1-DCE and butane were decreased in concentration. The simulations demonstrated the strong inhibition of both 1, 1-DCE and butane on 1, 1, 1-TCA transformation, and the more rapid 1, 1-DCE transformation kinetics. Results of tile field demonstration indicated that bioaugmentation was successfully implemented; however it was difficult to maintain effective treatment for long periods of time (50 days or more). The demonstration showed that the bioaugmented experimental leg effectively transformed 1, 1-DCE and 1, 1-DCA, and was somewhat effective in transforming 1, 1, 1-TCA. The indigenous experimental leg treated in the same way as the bioaugmented leg was much less effective in treating the contaminant mixture. The best operating performance was achieved in the bioaugmented leg with about over 90%, 80%, 60 % removal for 1, 1-DCE, 1, 1-DCA, and 1, 1, 1-TCA, respectively. Molecular methods were used to track and enumerate the bioaugmented culture in the test zone. Real Time PCR analysis was used to on enumerate the bioaugmented culture. The results show higher numbers of the bioaugmented microorganisms were present in the treatment zone groundwater when the contaminants were being effective transformed. A decrease in these numbers was associated with a reduction in treatment performance. The results of the field tests indicated that although bioaugmentation can be successfully implemented, competition for the growth substrate (butane) by the indigenous microorganisms likely lead to the decrease in long-term performance.

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프리캐스트 PSC 곡선 거더교의 구조거동에 대한 실험적 연구 (Experimental Study on Structural Behavior of Precast PSC Curved Girder Bridge)

  • 김성재;김성배;엄기하;김장호
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제34권6호
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    • pp.1731-1741
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    • 2014
  • 교통수요의 증가에 따른 교통혼잡을 피하기 위하여 고가도로와 고속도로, 경전철 등이 활발히 건설되고 있으며, 이에 따라 접속부 등과 같은 곡률반경이 작은 곡선교 구간의 발생이 증가하고 있다. 초기에는 직선형의 주형을 연결하여 곡선을 이루는 방법을 사용하였으나, 공사비의 증가와 미관성 측면에서 용이하지 않아 강재를 사용한 곡선주형이 개발되어 적용되고 있다. 강재의 특성상 기하학적인 형상을 구현하는데 상대적으로 손쉽기 때문에 대부분의 곡선교에서는 강재를 이용한 강박스 거더교를 주로 사용하고 있다. 그러나 강박스 거더교는 초기 공사비가 고가이고, 도장과 같은 지속적인 유지관리가 필요한 문제점을 가지고 있다. 최근에는 I형 강재 플레이트 거더를 사용하는 방법이 활발히 연구되고 있으나 곡선 I형상의 특성상 개단면이고 얇은 플레이트를 사용하기 때문에 비틀림 강성이 매우 작아 안전성에 문제가 있는 것으로 지적되고 있다. 이러한 곡선강교의 대안으로 경제성과 안전성이 확보되는 프리캐스트 PSC 곡선거더가 제시되고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 프리캐스트 PSC 곡선거더를 효율적으로 제작할 수 있는 스마트 몰드 시스템을 개발하고 이를 적용한 2주형 40m 실물교량의 정적 휨 파괴 실험을 통하여 안전성을 확인하고자 한다. 제작단계에서 단일 거더는 곡률반경에 의해 거더의 전도에 대한 안정성이 문제가 있으나 가로보로 연결된 멀티거더는 하중분배가 적절히 이루어지며 안정성이 확보되는 것으로 나타났다. 정적구조 실험결과에서는 균열하중(1,400 kN)이 설계하중(450 kN)의 약 3배 이상 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 허용처짐량에 해당하는 하중은 설계하중의 4배인 1,800 kN에서 발생하여 사용성과 안전성이 모두 확보되는 것으로 나타났다.

건설 현장 악력 작업안전 기준 설정에 관한 실험적 연구 (An Experimental Study on Establishing Criteria of Gripping Work in Construction Site)

  • 손기상;이인홍;최만진;안병준
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.81-95
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    • 1995
  • Now, safety assurance in construction sites should be accomplished by its own organization rather than control of the code or government. It is believed that the safety assurance can be considerably improved by a lecture or an education using the existing theories or literatures up to now, but it is thought that fundamental safety assurance we not able to be accomplished without developing safety devices '||'&'||' equipment or taking fundamental measures, based on the result analyzed from workers behaviors. There are various behaviors of the workers showed in construction site, but only tests for hammerusing works such as form, re-bar, stone workers directly related to the grip strength are mainly performed, investigated and measured here for the study. The above works are similar to power grip, 7th picture on seven items which are categorized for hand grip types(Ammermin 1956 ; Jones ; Kobrick 1958). Measurements of grip strength are commonly taken in anthropometric surveys. They are easy to administer but unfortunately it is rather dubious whether they yield any data that are of interest to the engineer. Very fewer controls of tools are grasped and squeesed studies showed very little overall correlation between grip strength and other measures of bodily strength (Laubach, Kromer, and Thordsen 1972), but hammer-using work which is practically progressed in construction site are mainly influenced with grip strength. According to the investigation on work measurement, it is shown that 77% of form worker are using hammer to be related to grip strength. In this study, it is particularly noticed that wearing safety gloves in construction site is required for workers safety but 20% difference between grip strength with safety gloves and without ones are commonly neglected in the site(Fig. 1). Nevertheless, safety operation with consideration of the above 20% difference is not considered in the construction site. Factors of age, kinds of work, working time, with or without safety gloves are in vestigated '||'&'||' collected at the sites for this study. Test, not at each working hour but at 14 : 00 when the almost all of the workers think the most tired, resulting from the questionaires, also when it is shown on the research report has been performed and compared for main kinds of works : form '||'&'||' re-bar work. Tests were performed with both left SE rightand of the workers simultaneously in construction site using Rand Dynamometer(Model 78010, Lafayette Instrument Co., Indiana, U.S.A) by reading grip strength on the gauge while they are pulling, and then by interviewing on their ages, works, experiences and etc., directly. The above tests have been performed for the dates of 15th march-26th May '95 with consideration of site condition. And even if various factors of ambient temperature on the testing date, working condition, individual worker's habit and worker's condition of the previous ate are concerned with the study. Those are considered as constants in this study. Samples are formwork 53, rebar 62, electrician 5, plumber 4, welding 1 from D construction Co., Ltd, ; formwork 12, re-bar 5, electrician 2, from S construction Co., Ltd, , formwork 78, re-bar 18, plumber 31, electrician 13, labor 48, plumber 31, plasterer 15, concrete placer 6, water proof worker 3, maisony 5 from B construction Co., Ltd. As In the previously mentioned, main aspect to be investigated in this study will be from '||'&'||' re-bar work because grip strength will be directly applied to these two kinds of works ; form '||'&'||' re-bar work, eventhough there are total 405 samples taken. It is thought that a frequency of accident occurrence will be mainly two work postures "looking up '||'&'||' looking down" to be mainly sorted, but this factor is not clarified in this study because It will be needed a lot of work more. Tests has been done at possible large scale of horizontally work-extended sites within one hour in order to prevent or decrease errors '||'&'||' discrepancies from time lag of the test. Additionally, the statistical package computer program SPSS PC+has been used for the study.

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방사성동위원소를 이용한 비파괴 검사 시 작업환경 내 공간선량률 평가 (Evaluation of Spatial Dose Rate in Working Environment during Non-Destructive Testing using Radioactive Isotopes)

  • 조용인;김정훈;배상일
    • 한국방사선학회논문지
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.373-379
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    • 2022
  • 비파괴 검사에 사용되는 방사선원은 투과력이 높고 주변 물질과의 충돌을 통해 산란선을 야기하며 이는 주변 공간선량 변화를 발생시킨다. 이에 본 연구는 몬테카를로 모의 모사를 활용하여 비파괴 검사 시 작업환경 내 선원별 공간선량 분포를 평가 및 분석하고자 하였다. 본 연구는 모의 모사 코드인 FLUKA를 활용하여 비파괴 검사에서 사용되는 60Co(3,700 GBq), 192Ir(1,850 GBq), 75Se(2,960 GBq) 선원을 모의모사하고, 산출된 선량률을 보건물리학회 자료와 비교하여 선원항의 신뢰성을 확보하였다. 이후 방사선안전시설(RT-room) 내 비파괴 검사를 설계하여 선원으로부터 거리에 따른 공간선량률을 평가하였다. 공간선량률 평가 결과, 75Se 선원이 정면 위치에서 가장 낮은 선량 분포를 보였으며, 60Co는 75Se에 비해 약 15배, 192Ir 보다 약 2배 높은 선량을 나타내었다. 또한 거리에 따른 공간선량 분포는 선원과의 거리가 증가할수록 거리 역자승 법칙에 따라 감소되는 경향을 나타내었다. 예외적으로 60Co, 192Ir, 75Se 선원 모두 2 m 지점 이내에서 선량이 다소 증가하는 것을 확인하였다. 방사성동위원소를 이용한 비파괴 검사 시 작업환경 내 피폭선량 관리를 위해 75Se 선원과 같은 낮은 에너지를 방출하는 선원의 사용과 작업 시 방사선안전시설 내 선원과의 거리를 4 m 이상으로 유지한다면, 방사선작업종사자의 피폭선량 최적화에 도움 될 것으로 판단된다. 추후 본 연구 결과를 토대로 비파괴 검사 시 방사선안전시설 내 종사자의 안전관리를 위한 보조자료로서 활용될 것으로 사료된다.

경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발 (Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique)

  • 김명균;조윤호
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • 기업의 성장성, 수익성, 안정성, 활동성, 생산성 등에 대한 다양한 분석이 은행, 신용평가기관, 투자자 등 많은 이해관계자에 의해 실시되고 있고, 이에 대한 다양한 경영분석 지표들 또한 정기적으로 발표되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 경영분석 지표를 이용하여 어떤 기업이 가까운 미래에 유상증자를 실시하는지를 데이터마이닝을 통해 예측하고자 한다. 본 연구를 통해 어떠한 지표가 유상증자 여부를 예측하는데 도움이 되는가를 살펴 볼 것이며, 그 지표들을 이용하여 예측할 경우 그 예측의 정확도가 어느 정도인지를 분석하고자 한다. 특히 1997년 IMF 금융위기 전후로 유상증자를 결정하는 변수들이 변화하는지, 그리고 예측의 정확성에 분명한 차이가 존재하는지 분석한다. 또한 유상증자 실시 시기를 경영분석 지표 발표 후 1년 내, 1~2년 내, 2~3년 내로 나누어 예측 시기에 따라 예측의 정확성과 결정 변수들의 차이가 존재하는지도 분석한다. 658개의 유가증권상장법인의 경영분석 데이터를 이용하여 실증 분석한 결과, IMF 이후의 유상증자 예측모형이 IMF 이전의 예측모형에 비해 예측 정확도가 높았고, 학습용 데이터의 예측 정확도와 검증용 데이터의 예측 정확도 차이도 IMF 이후가 낮게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 IMF 이후 재무자료의 정확도가 높아졌고, 기업에게 유상증자의 목적이 더욱 명확해졌다고 해석될 수 있다. 또한 예측기간이 단기인 경우 경영분석 지표 중 안전성에 관련된 지표들의 중요성이 부각되었고, 장기인 경우에는 수익성과 안전성뿐만 아니라 활동성과 생산성 관련지표도 유상증자를 예측하는 데 중요한 것으로 파악되었다. 그리고 모든 예측모형에서 산업코드가 유상증자를 예측하는 중요변수로 포함되었는데 이는 산업별로 서로 다른 유상증자 유형이 존재한다는 점을 시사한다. 본 연구는 투자자나 재무담당자가 유상증자 여부를 장단기 시점에서 예측하고자 할 때 어떠한 경영분석지표를 고려하여 분석하는 것이 바람직한지에 대한 지침을 제공하는데 그 의의가 있다.