• ETRI Journal
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• 제44권6호
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• pp.977-990
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• 2022

This study proposes a novel method for identifying the primary conspirators involved in terrorist activities. To map the information related to terrorist activities, we gathered information from different sources of real cases involving terrorist attacks. We extracted useful information from available sources and then mapped them in the form of terrorist networks, and this mapping provided us with insights in these networks. Furthermore, we came up with a novel centrality measure for identifying the primary conspirators of a terrorist attack. Because the leaders of terrorist attacks usually direct conspirators to conduct terrorist activities, we designed a novel algorithm that can identify such leaders. This algorithm can identify terrorist attack leaders even if they have less connectivity in networks. We tested the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms on four real-world datasets and conducted an experimental evaluation, and the proposed algorithms could correctly identify the primary conspirators and leaders of the attacks in the four cases. To summarize, this work may provide information support for security agencies and can be helpful during the trials of the cases related to terrorist attacks.

• 안보군사학연구
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• 통권2호
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• pp.201-235
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• 2004

This paper provides a simple microeconomic model of terrorist attcks and anti-terrorism policies. The terrorists can be characterised as rational actors, choosing between legal activities and terrorist activities to promote their political goals. Since their resources are limited, one can think of anti-terrorist policies by examining how such policies affect the objectives and constraints of terrorists. Deterrence policy seeks to reduce terrorist attacks by raising the cost of undertaking terrorist acts. Proactive policy aims at preventing attacks by destroying terrorists' resources (fund, personnel, leadership). This paper suggests another type of anti-terrorist policy which is to reduce the benefits of (or in other words, raising the opportunity costs of) terrorist acts. Such a policy is based on decentralisation in political decision-making and economic power.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제21권12호
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• pp.213-218
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• 2016

China is defending the terrorist crime through the Anti-Terror Law and anti-terrorism criminal legislation. China's Anti-Terror Law and the Criminal Code Amendment (9), which were promulgated in 2015, provide legal grounds for preventing and hurting ever-growing terrorist crimes. In particular, China's amendment to the Criminal Code (9) is designed to rigorously enforce the legal framework for terrorist crimes, protect prejudicial rights that might be violated by serious terrorist crimes, and protect the penalties for terrorist crimes. However, China's anti-terrorism legislation still has drawbacks such as lack of systematicity, limited regulatory boundaries, and lack of rigorous penalties for the establishment of anti-terrorism legislation. To counter this, China's anti-terrorism legislation must strictly regulate the legal system of terrorist crimes, secure penalties, and prescribe anti-terrorism laws as professional chapters.

• 수완나부미
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.101-132
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• 2019

Why do some local rebel groups choose to form asymmetric alliances with large transnational terrorist organizations? This paper examines asymmetric terrorist alliance patterns by studying the international ties of domestic insurgencies in Southeast Asia. It uses data from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand to construct a theory defining the determinants of the choice of alliance strategies by terrorist groups. The findings conclude that rebels with limited aims prefer to act alone out of fear of entrapment. They are cautious of becoming associated with the struggle of transnational radical groups and provoking organized response from international and regional counterterrorism authorities. Local groups are more likely to seek alliance with an established movement when they have ambitious final objectives, challenging the core interests of the target state. In this case, the benefits of training and logistic support provided by an experienced organization outweigh the costs of becoming a target for coordinated counterterrorist campaign.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.31-37
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• 2020

The purpose of this research study is to examine the stock market's response to terrorist attacks. The study uses data of terrorist attacks in different parts of the country (Pakistan) from June 1, 2014 to May 31, 2017. The event window procedure applies to a 16-day window in which 5 days before and 10 days after the attack. In addition, several event windows have been built to test the response of the Pakistan Stock Exchange. KSE-100 index is taken as proxy of response. The total terrorist attacks are classified into four categories: attacks on law enforcement agencies, attacks on civilians, attacks on special places and attacks on politicians, government employees and bureaucrats. The standard market model is used to estimate the abnormal return of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, which takes 252 business days each year. Furthermore, BMP test is used to check statistical significance of cumulative abnormal rate of return (CAAR). The results of this study reveal that total number of terrorist attacks and attacks on law enforcement agencies show long-term effects on Pakistan stock exchange. However, attacks on civilians, attacks on special places and attacks on politicians, government employees and bureaucrats have little effect on the Pakistan Stock Exchange.

• 시큐리티연구
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• 제1호
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• pp.351-370
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• 1997

This study concerns possible measures to prevent separatists' terrorist acts against overseas Korean businessmen. Of late, many Korean enterprises are helping a number of foreign countries develop their economy, by building factories and manning regional offices in those countries. But recent development of terrorism especially against Korean businessmen is alarming. This report discusses the need for Korean enterprises heading overseas to prepare themselves with awareness of terrorism and possible protective measures against it, besides their routine pursuance of profits; and for the government and prospective enterprises to refrain from investing in those countries having active separatist movements. If an investment has become inevitable, a careful survey of the region in conflict should be conducted and self-protective measures should be put in place through security information exchange, emergency coordination and training of personnel, etc. This study will first review the past terrorist incidents involving employees of overseas Korean enterprises, and then will focuss on seeking effective measures on the basis of the reported incidents. In carrying out the study, related literature from both home and abroad have been used along with the preliminary materials reported and known on the Internet from recent incidents. 1. The separatist movements of minority groups Lately, minority separatist groups are increasingly resorting to terrorism to draw international attention with the political aim of gaining extended self rule or independence. 2. The state of terrorism against overseas Korean enterprises and Koreans Korean enterprises are now operating businesses, and having their own personnel stationed, in 85 countries including those in South East Asia and Middle East regions. In Sri Lanka, where a Korean enterprise recently became a target of terrorist bombing, there are 75 business firms from Korea and some 700 Korean employees are stationed as of August 1996. A total of 19 different terrorist incidents have taken place against Koreans abroad since 1990. 3. Terrorism preventive measures Terrorism preventive measures are discussed in two ways: measures by the government and by the enterprises. ${\blacktriangleleft}$ Measures by the government - Possible measures at governmental level can include collection and dissemination of terrorist activity information. Emphasis should be given to the information on North Korean activities in particular. ${\blacktriangleleft}$ Measures by individual enterprises - Organizational security plan must be established by individual enterprises and there should also be an increase of security budget. A reason for reluctant effort toward positive security plan is the perception that the security budget is not immediately linked to an increment of profit gain. Ensuring safety for overseas personnel is a fundamental obligation of an enterprise. Consultation and information exchange on security plan, and an emergency support system at a threat to security must be sought after and implemented. 4. Conclusion Today's terrorism varies widely depending on reasons and causes, and its means has become increasingly informationalized and scientific as well while its method is becoming more clandestine and violent. Terrorist organizations are increasingly aiming at enterprises for acquisition of budgets needed for their activities. Korean enterprises have extended their business realm to foreign countries since 1970, exposing themselves to terrorism. Enterprises and their employees, therefore, should establish their own security measures on the one hand while the government must provide general measures, on the other, for the protection of the life and property of Korean residents abroad from terrorist attacks. In this regard, set-up of a counter terrorist organization that coordinates the efforts of government authorities in various levels in planning and executing counter terrorist measures is desired. Since 1965, when the hostile North Korea began to step up its terrorist activities against South Koreans, there have been 7 different occasions of assassination attempt on South Korean presidents and some 500 cases of various kidnappings and attempted kidnappings. North Korea, nervous over the continued economic growth and social stabilization of South Korea, is now concentrating its efforts in the destruction and deterioration of the national power of South Korea for its earlier realization of reunification by force. The possibility of North Korean terrorism can be divided into external terrorist acts and internal terrorist acts depending on the nationality of the terrorists it uses. The external terrorist acts include those committed directly by North Korean agents in South Korea and abroad and those committed by dissident Koreans, hired Korean residents, or international professionals or independent international terrorists bought or instigated by North Korea. To protect the life and property of Korean enterprises and their employees abroad from the threat of terrorism, the government's administrative support and the organizational efforts of enterprises should necessarily be directed toward the planning of proper security measures and training of employees. Also, proper actions should be taken against possible terrorist acts toward Korean business employees abroad as long as there are ongoing hostilities from minority groups against their governments.

• 시큐리티연구
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• 제42호
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• pp.277-308
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• 2015

최근 일본인 인질사태와 시리아 조종사의 화형, 우리나라 김군의 IS테러단체의 가입과 같은 사건이 발생하면서 우리나라도 IS테러와 관련하여 더 이상 예외가 아니라고 할 수 없을 것이다. 또한 IS테러집단은 전 세계인을 상대로 특히 영웅이 되고 싶고 비판력이 약하며 소외되어 있는 10대 청소년을 대상으로 대화나 게임 등의 SNS를 통한 IS가입을 권유하면서 자국 내 국민은 물론 다른 나라의 불만세력이 있거나 운둔형인 국민들까지 언제든지 테러단체에 가입 할 수 있는 환경을 만들면서 IS테러단체의 테러행위는 자국 내 국민에 의해서도 외국인이나 이주민에 의해서도 발생될 수 있는 상황이 되었다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 이러한 IS테러단체의 테러행위에 대한 심각성을 인식하고, IS테러단체의 공습확대에 따른 자국 내 테러발생 위험성에 대해 외국의 사건사례 등을 검토하여 이를 예방하고 대응할 수 있는 방안을 모색해 보고자 하였다. 그 결과 IS테러단체의 공습확대에 따른 자국 내 테러발생 위험성성은 존재하며 그 원인에 대한 대응 방안은 다음과 같다. 우선, IS테러단체의 사이트에 대한 내국인의 접근을 막기 위한 대테러방지법이 마련되어져야 하며, 다음으로는 각 기관과의 테러정보에 대한 교류와 협력 그리고 이를 통한 역할분담이 이루어져 테러가 발생했을 경우 신속하면서도 적절한 대책이 이우어져야 한다. 마지막으로 자국민 특히 10대 청소년에 대한 테러관련 교육과 테러에 대비한 안전강화프로그램이 개발 및 실행되어야 할 것이다.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.694-701
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• 2021

Catastrophic events cause casualties, damage property, and lead to huge social impacts. To build common standards and facilitate international communications regarding disasters, the relevant authorities in social management rank them in subjectively imposed terms such as direct economic losses and loss of life. Terrorist attacks involving uncertain human factors, which are roughly graded based on the rule of property damage, are even more difficult to interpret and assess. In this paper, we collected 114 183 open-source records of terrorist attacks and used a machine learning method to grade them synthetically in an automatic and objective way. No subjective claims or personal preferences were involved in the grading, and each derived common factor contains the comprehensive and rich information of many variables. Our work presents a new automatic ranking approach and is suitable for a broad range of gradation problems. Furthermore, we can use this model to grade all such attacks globally and visualize them to provide new insights.

• 시큐리티연구
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• 제36호
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• pp.317-347
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• 2013

이 연구는 계량분석을 통해 아프가니스탄 지역에서 발생한 폭탄테러 사건의 주요한 특성을 살펴보고 빈도수와 사상자 수에 영향을 미치는 주요한 요인을 탐구한다. 이를 위해 미국 START 프로그램의 Global Terrorism Database의 폭탄테러사건 데이터 중 아프가니스탄에서 2002년 1월 1일에서 2011년 12 월 31일 사이에 발생한 케이스들을 분석했다. 기술적 통계분석과 카이제곱 검증, 그리고 로지스틱 회귀분석기법을 사용하여 폭탄테러 사건을 계량 분석하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 테러사건의 경향성이 뚜렷이 나타난다. 이를 유추하면 테러리스트는 무작위가 아니라 어떤 상황조건의 영향을 받아 합리적 사고를 통해 폭탄테러를 수행한다. 예를 들면, 폭탄테러 사건은 최근으로 올수록 더 증가하였으며 특히 시골지역과 비파슈툰 부족지역에서 더욱 가파르게 증가하였다. 한편, 테러사건이 최근 들어 증가하는 추세에 반해 사건 당 사상자수는 오히려 감소하는 경향을 보여주었다. 이 밖에도 마약생산수준이 높은 지역에서는 사상자수가 낮게 나타났으나 마약생산지역이라도 파슈툰 부족지역에서는 사상자수가 더 높게 나타났다. 또한, 정부와 군, 경찰 같은 적대적인 목표물에 대한 공격사건에서는 사상자가 더 높게 나타났다. 결국 이러한 분석결과는 폭탄테러가 어떤 특성과 경향성을 띠며 빈도수와 사상자수에 영향을 미치는 주요한 예측요인들이 존재한다는 가설을 지지한다.

• 시큐리티연구
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• 제52호
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• pp.73-91
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• 2017

본 연구는 각각의 정치 경제적 입장에 따라 적아가 수시로 변화하는 국제질서 속에서 첨단 장비를 사용하여 광범위한 피해를 유발시키는 뉴테러리즘을 사전에 억제하고, 테러발생시 효과적으로 대응하여 피해를 최소화시키고 우리나라의 실정에 맞는 테러 대응 위기관리 방안을 수립하기 위해서 전문가 집단을 통한 한국의 테러환경 진단과 테러 요인별 SWOT 분석을 실시하였다. 첫째, 한국의 테러 환경 내부적인 강점요인으로는 안정된 치안 상황, 종교 인종적 갈등요소의 미약, 총기에 대한 강력한 규제와 관리, 주요 국제행사를 개최하면서 축적한 대테러 역량과 노하우 등으로 나타났다. 둘째, 한국의 테러 환경에 대한 내부적인 약점요인을 살펴보면 국민의 테러 불감증, 북한과의 군사적 대치상황에 따른 불안요소, 인터넷과 IT기술 발달에 의한 테러통제와 관리의 어려움 등으로 나타났다. 셋째, 한국의 테러 환경에 대한 외부적인 기회요인을 살펴보면 외국의 테러 실패 사례를 통한 보완과 학습의 용이, 높아진 테러 이슈로 테러 예산 및 지원증가 용이, 동맹국가와의 군사적 협력을 통한 테러 대응 강화 등으로 나타났다. 넷째, 한국의 테러 환경에 대한 외부적인 위협요인은 탈북자와 외국인 노동자의 지속적인 유입에 따른 사회 불만계층의 증가, 미국과의 동맹으로 국제 테러 단체로부터 테러의 목표화, 해외경제 활동 증가에 따른 국제테러 발생 빈도 증가, IS등에 의한 전 세계를 대상으로 하는 테러범위의 확대 등으로 나타났다. 그리고 전문가 집단의 테러 환경에 대한 SWOT 심층면담을 실시하여 한국의 테러환경에 있어 문제점과 테러인식 및 법제에 대한 현황진단 및 분석을 실시하였다. 이와 같이 연구한 결과를 종합하여 우리나라의 실정에 맞는 테러 대응 위기관리 방안을 제시하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 통합적인 테러대응 기구의 구축이다. 둘째, 테러 대응관련 전문 인력 확보와 양성이다.