• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.61-66
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• 2022

Purpose: Predicting the financial distress distribution of an enterprise is important to warn enterprises about their future. Predicting the possibility of financial distress helps companies have action plans to avoid the possibility of bankruptcy. In this study, the author conducted a forecast of the financial distress distribution of enterprises. Research design, data and methodology: The forecasting method is based on Logit and Discriminant analysis models. The data was collected from companies listed on Vietnam Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2020. In which there are both companies suffer from financial distress and non-financial distress. Results: The forecast analysis results show that the Logistic model has better predictability than the Discriminant analysis model. At the same time, the results also indicate three main factors affecting the financial distress of enterprises at all three research stages: (1) Liquidity, (2) Interest payment, and (3) firm size. In addition, at each stage, the impact of factors on financial distress differs. Conclusions: From the results of this study, the author also made several recommendations to help companies better control company operations to avoid falling into financial distress. Adjustments to current assets, debt, and company expansion considerations are the most important factors for companies.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.271-291
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• 2023

Settlement estimation in cohesion materials is a crucial topic to tackle because of the complexity of the cohesion soil texture, which could be solved roughly by substituted solutions. The goal of this research was to implement recently developed machine learning features as effective methods to predict settlement (S_m) of shallow foundations over cohesion soil properties. These models include hybridized support vector regression (SVR), random forests (RF), and coot optimization algorithm (COM), and black widow optimization algorithm (BWOA). The results indicate that all created systems accurately simulated the S_m, with an R² of better than 0.979 and 0.9765 for the train and test data phases, respectively. This indicates extraordinary efficiency and a good correlation between the experimental and simulated S_m. The model's results outperformed those of ANFIS - PSO, and COM - RF findings were much outstanding to those of the literature. By analyzing established designs utilizing different analysis aspects, such as various error criteria, Taylor diagrams, uncertainty analyses, and error distribution, it was feasible to arrive at the final result that the recommended COM - RF was the outperformed approach in the forecasting process of S_m of shallow foundation, while other techniques were also reliable.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 2020

Leading the fourth industrial revolution era requires science and technology strategies that establish original research directions at the national level. To this end, it is necessary to look at the research and development activities for the fourth industrial revolution of technology-leading countries. In this study, the research programs of the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity(IARPA), an organization focusing on cutting edge research on science and technology information such as artificial intelligence, are investigated by using network analysis. The findings show that, resolving around the information identification and forecasting, decision making and cybersecurity clusters, IARPA's research programs largely focus on finding hidden information and predicting specific events, supporting decision making by considering changes in and outside organizations or establishing cybersecurity. Also, this study finds that China and Japan, representative technology-leading Asian countries, refer to the research programs of IARPA to establish their science and technology policies. The results of this study suggest implications for Korea's science and technology policies in response to the fourth industrial revolution era.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.407-438
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• 2013

Current status and future direction of air quality modeling for monitoring and forecasting air quality in East Asia were discussed in this paper. An integrated air quality modeling system, combining (1) emission processing and modeling, (2) meteorological model simulation, (3) chemistry-transport model (CTM) simulation, (4) ground-based and satellite-retrieved observations, and (5) data assimilation, was introduced. Also, the strategies for future development of the integrated air quality modeling system in East Asia was discussed in this paper. In particular, it was emphasized that the successful use and development of the air quality modeling system should depend on the active applications of the data sets from incumbent and upcoming LEO/GEO (Low Earth Orbit/Geostationary Earth Orbit) satellites. This is particularly true, since Korea government successfully launched Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) in June, 2010 and has another plan to launch Geostationary Environmental Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) in 2018, in order to monitor the air quality and emissions in/around the Korean peninsula as well as over East Asia.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.497-514
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• 2017

This study quantitatively analyzes the effects of emission inventory choices on the simulated particulate matter (PM) concentrations and the domestic/foreign contributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) with an air quality forecasting system. The forecasting system is composed of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Different domestic and foreign emission inventories were selectively adopted to set up four sets of emissions inputs for air quality simulations in this study. All modeling cases showed that model performance statistics satisfied the criteria levels (correlation coefficient >0.7, fractional error <50%) suggested by previous studies. Notwithstanding the apparently good model performance of total PM concentrations by all emission cases, annual average concentrations of simulated total PM concentrations varied up to $20{\mu}g/m^3$ (160%) depending on the combination of emission inventories. In detail, the difference in simulated annual average concentrations of the primary PM coarse (PMC) was up to $25.2{\mu}g/m^3$ (6.5 times) compared with other cases. Furthermore, model performance analyses on PM species showed that the difference in the simulated primary PMC led to gross model overestimation in general, which indicates that the primary PMC emissions need to be improved. The contribution analysis using model direct outputs indicated that the domestic contributions to the annual average PM concentrations in the SMA vary from 44% to 67%. To account for the uncertainty of the simulated concentration, the contribution correction factor method proposed by Bae et al. (2017) was applied, which resulted in converged contributions(from 48% to 57%). We believe this study shows that it is necessary to improve the simulated concentrations of PM components in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting model. It is deemed that these improvements will provide more accurate contribution results.

• Journal of radiological science and technology
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.353-359
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• 2016

This study were to evaluate risk factors of GB polpy in Busan and Gyeongnam area. This study was performed with patients by abdominal ultrasonography among the patients who came to the P hospital from January to May 2016. Among them, risk factors were analyzed on 399 people at the same time when abdominal ultrasonography and hematological test. The statistical analysis of risk factors related to the GB ployp was performed by independent t-test and chi-square test. In consider of difference verification result for calculations odds ratio about independent variables, multiple logistic regression analysis to conduct verify adequacy by calculating forecasting model from variable. As a result, GB polyp risk factors have relevance to male, HBsAg positive, triglyceride. GB polyp risk factors confirmed to male, HBsAg positive, triglyceride were calculated forecasting model and forecasting probability value. Forecasting probability sensitivity 61.0%, specificity 76.8%, ROC area under curve 0.735 showed, it confirmed validity of forecasting model. When analyzing the GB polyps morphologically, among the GB polyp types observed from abdominal ultrasonography, the hyperechoic and homogeneous pattern with neck was the largest as shown from 27.5% and two GB polyps were shown most from 38%, sizes were shown most by maximum diameter, 5 to 10mm from 53%. As a disease accompany with GB polyp showed mild fatty liver(23%), diffuse hepatopathy(21%).

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.12
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• pp.1249-1263
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• 2013

In order to minimize the damages caused by long-term drought, appropriate drought management plans of the basin should be established with the drought forecasting technology. Further, in order to build reasonable adaptive measurement for future drought, the duration and severity of drought must be predicted quantitatively in advance. Thus, this study, attempts to forecast drought in Korea by using an Artificial Neural Network Model, and drought index, which are the representative statistical approach most frequently used for hydrological time series forecasting. SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) for major weather stations in Korea, estimated using observed historical precipitation, was used as input variables to the MLP (Multi Layer Perceptron) Neural Network model. Data set from 1976 to 2000 was selected as the training period for the parameter calibration and data from 2001 to 2010 was set as the validation period for the drought forecast. The optimal model for drought forecast determined by training process was applied to drought forecast using SPI (3), SPI (6) and SPI (12) over different forecasting lead time (1 to 6 months). Drought forecast with SPI (3) shows good result only in case of 1 month forecast lead time, SPI (6) shows good accordance with observed data for 1-3 months forecast lead time and SPI (12) shows relatively good results in case of up to 1~5 months forecast lead time. The analysis of this study shows that SPI (3) can be used for only 1-month short-term drought forecast. SPI (6) and SPI (12) have advantage over long-term drought forecast for 3~5 months lead time.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.395-408
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• 2020

This paper aims to develop and apply three different machine learning approaches (i.e., artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), and wavelet-based neural networks (WNN)) combined with an evolutionary optimization algorithm and the k-fold cross validation for multi-step (days) streamflow forecasting at the catchment located in Algeria, North Africa. The ANN and ANFIS models yielded similar performances, based on four different statistical indices (i.e., root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient (R), and peak flow criteria (PFC)) for training and testing phases. The values of RMSE and PFC for the WNN model (e.g., RMSE = 8.590 ㎥/sec, PFC = 0.252 for (t+1) day, testing phase) were lower than those of ANN (e.g., RMSE = 19.120 ㎥/sec, PFC = 0.446 for (t+1) day, testing phase) and ANFIS (e.g., RMSE = 18.520 ㎥/sec, PFC = 0.444 for (t+1) day, testing phase) models, while the values of NSE and R for WNN model were higher than those of ANNs and ANFIS models. Therefore, the new approach can be a robust tool for multi-step (days) streamflow forecasting in the Seybous River, Algeria.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.67-74
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• 2023

High waves and storm surges due to tropical cyclones cause great damage in coastal areas; therefore, accurately predicting storm surges and high waves before a typhoon strike is crucial. Meteorological forcing is an important factor for predicting these catastrophic events. This study presents an improved methodology for determining accurate meteorological forcing. Typhoon Chaba, which caused serious damage to the south coast of South Korea in 2016, was selected as a case study. In this study, symmetric and asymmetric parametric vortex models based on the typhoon track forecasted by the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) were used to create meteorological forcing and were compared with those models based on the best track. The meteorological fields were also created by blending the meteorological field from the symmetric / asymmetric parametric vortex models based on the MPAS-forecasted typhoon track and the meteorological field generated by the forecasting model (MPAS). This meteorological forcing data was then used given to two-way coupled tide-surge-wave models: Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN). The modeled storm surges and waves correlated well with the observations and were comparable to those predicted using the best track. Based on our analysis, we propose using the parametric model with the MPAS-forecasted track, the meteorological field from the same forecasting model, and blending them to improve storm surge and wave prediction.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.12
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• pp.1329-1338
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• 2021

Rain radar provides high spatio-temporal radar rainfall that can be used as input data to short-term precipitation forecasting models. Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT) has developed a flash flood forecasting system that is providing flash flood forecasting based on short-term rainfall forecasts estimated by the radar rainfall. Accuracy of the radar rainfall as well as the short-term rainfall forecasts, however, can deteriorate when radar polarimetric variables have error. In this study, we develope real-time program that can correct the error inherent in the radar polarimetric variables. First, effect according to the correction of the error was verified using 363 rainfall events on non real-time. The accuracy (1-NE) of the radar rainfall was approximately 70% and correlation coefficient was higher than 0.8 after correcting the error on non real-time. The accuracy (1-NE) using the real-time program was also approximately 70% after correcting the error.