• Title/Summary/Keyword: Technology Forecasting

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A Study on Technology Forecasting of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) Using TFDEA (TFDEA를 이용한 무인항공기 기술예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Byungki;Kim, H.C.;Lee, Choonjoo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.799-821
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    • 2016
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are essential systems for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) operations in current battlespace. And its importance will be getting extended because of complexity and uncertainty of battlespace. In this study, we forecast the advancement of 96 UAVs during the period of 32 years from 1982 to 2014 using TFDEA. TFDEA is a quantitative technology forecasting method which is characterized as non-parametric and non-statistical mathematical programming. Inman et al. (2006) showed that TFDEA is more accurate in forecasting compared with classical econometrics (e.g. regression). This study got 4.06% point of annual technological rate of change (RoC) for UAVs by applying TFDEA. And most UAVs in the period are inefficient according to the global SOA frontiers. That is because the countries which develop UAVs are in the middle class of technological level, so more than 60% of world UAVs markets are shared by North America and Europe which are advanced countries in terms of technological maturity level. This study could give some insights for UAVs development and its advancement. And also can be used for evaluating the adequacy of Required Operational Capability (ROC) of suggested future systems and managing the progress of Research and Development (R&D).

Advances in Hydrological Science of China

  • Cheng, Lin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.111-114
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    • 2010
  • In this report, introduction will be made in 5 respects including hydrometry technology, hydrological simulation, hydrometeorological research, hydrological analysis, and operational forecasting.

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A Study on Forecast of the Promising Fusion Technology by US Patent Analysis (특허분석을 통한 유망융합기술의 예측)

  • Gang, Hui-Jong;Eom, Mi-Jeong;Kim, Dong-Myeong
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.93-116
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    • 2006
  • This study provides a quantitative forecasting method to identify promising fusion technology and it also applies the method based on patent analysis to IT. This study defines fusion technology, promising technology, fusion index, promising index and promising fusion technology. From the analysis, this study found that the next generation computer network is the most promising in IT area. This result is consistent with the forecasts made by the interviews and discussion of experts.

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Predictive Analysis of Traffic Accidents caused by Negligence of Safe Driving in Elderly using Seasonal ARIMA (계절 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 고령운전자의 안전운전불이행에 의한 교통사고건수 예측분석)

  • Kim, Jae-Moon;Chang, Sung-Ho;Kim, Sung-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 2017
  • Even though cars have a good effect on modern society, traffic accidents do not. There are traffic laws that define the regulations and aim to reduce accidents from happening; nevertheless, it is hard to determine all accident causes such as road and traffic conditions, and human related factors. If a traffic accident occurs, the traffic law classifies it as 'Negligence of Safe Driving' for cases that are not defined by specific regulations. Meanwhile, as Korea is already growing rapidly elderly population with more than 65 years, so are the number of traffic accidents caused by this group. Therefore, we studied predictive and comparative analysis of the number of traffic accidents caused by 'Negligence of Safe Driving' by dividing it into two groups : All-ages and Elderly. In this paper, we used empirical monthly data from 2007 to 2015 collected by TAAS (Traffic Accident Analysis System), identified the most suitable ARIMA forecasting model by using the four steps of the Box-Jenkins method : Identification, Estimation, Diagnostics, Forecasting. The results of this study indicate that ARIMA $(1, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)_{12}$ is the most suitable forecasting model in the group of All-ages; and ARIMA $(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)_{12}$ is the most suitable in the group of Elderly. Then, with this fitted model, we forecasted the number of traffic accidents for 2 years of both groups. There is no large fluctuation in the group of All-ages, but the group of Elderly shows a gradual increase trend. Finally, we compared two groups in terms of the forecast, suggested a countermeasure plan to reduce traffic accidents for both groups.

Survey for Technology Forecasting for Crop Production using Delphi Method (경종작물분야의 델파이 기술예측조사)

  • Young-Am Chae
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.261-270
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    • 2004
  • The study was designed to forecast and derive future core technologies using Delphi method in Korea agriculture. Based on the technologies, agriculture in Korea will be expected to improve as a core and strategic industry producing high value added in 21 century. Questions were given to specialists by each technology in order to survey importance, realization time, level of R&D in Korea and the leading country, leading group of R&D, effective policy, etc. for each technology. The survey for Delphi was confined to the specialists in the area of crop production. The 44 core technologies were derived and 39 specialists answered the survey.

International Comparative Analysis for Korean, Japanese, German and French Delphi Forecasting in Information and Communication (정보통신분야의 델파이 기술예측 국제비교분석-한국.일본.프랑스.독일)

  • 홍순기;오정묵
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.223-248
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    • 1997
  • In this study the comparative analysis of four nations' Delphi technological forecasts in information and communication industry was carried out. The nations were Korea, Japan, Germany and France. The reliability test of realization time forecast was also conducted. There were some technologies of which four nations forecast almost same realization time whereas other technologies which four nations showed large variance in forecasting realization time. This means that experts from different nations had different views and prospects on the same technology. It is expected that prospecting international technological trend from this study will contribute to formulating long-range plan for technological development in information and communication in Korea. The result of the comparative analysis of four nations' forecasts in information and communication technology can be summarized as follows. a)As for the realization time, most of the technologies were forecast by four nations to be similar, the differences ranging from one to three years. It was found that on the whole, the longer the time of the forecast, the bigger the variance. The German forecast showed the biggest variance. b)In reliability test Korean was found to be the most reliable and Japan, France and Germany were in descending order. The response of all panel members was found to be more reliable than that of the panel members with high expertise, which means that there were substantially different views among panel members with high expertise on the realization time of the same technology.

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