• Title/Summary/Keyword: Technology Forecast

Search Result 644, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Using Classification function to integrate Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression and Backpropagation Neural Networks for Interest Rates Forecasting

  • Oh, Kyong-Joo;Ingoo Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
    • /
    • 2000.11a
    • /
    • pp.417-426
    • /
    • 2000
  • This study suggests integrated neural network models for Interest rate forecasting using change-point detection, classifiers, and classification functions based on structural change. The proposed model is composed of three phases with tee-staged learning. The first phase is to detect successive and appropriate structural changes in interest rare dataset. The second phase is to forecast change-point group with classifiers (discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and backpropagation neural networks) and their. combined classification functions. The fecal phase is to forecast the interest rate with backpropagation neural networks. We propose some classification functions to overcome the problems of two-staged learning that cannot measure the performance of the first learning. Subsequently, we compare the structured models with a neural network model alone and, in addition, determine which of classifiers and classification functions can perform better. This article then examines the predictability of the proposed classification functions for interest rate forecasting using structural change.

  • PDF

Real-Time Volt/VAr Control Based on the Difference between the Measured and Forecasted Loads in Distribution Systems

  • Park, Jong-Young;Nam, Soon-Ryul;Park, Jong-Keun
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.2 no.2
    • /
    • pp.152-156
    • /
    • 2007
  • This paper proposes a method for real-time control of both capacitors and ULTC in a distribution system to reduce the total power loss and to improve the voltage profile over the course of a day. The multi-stage consists of the off-line stage to determine dispatch schedule based on a load forecast and the on-line stage generates the time and control sequences at each sampling time. It is then determined whether one of the control actions in the control sequence is performed at the present sampling time. The proposed method is presented for a typical radial distribution system with a single ULTC and capacitors.

A Study on Trend Impact Analysis Based of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

  • Yong-Gil Kim;Kang-Yeon Lee
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.199-207
    • /
    • 2023
  • Trend Impact Analysis is a prominent hybrid method has been used in future studies with a modified surprise- free forecast. It considers experts' perceptions about how future events may change the surprise-free forecast. It is an advanced forecasting tool used in futures studies for identifying, understanding and analyzing the consequences of unprecedented events on future trends. In this paper, we propose an advanced mechanism to generate more justifiable estimates to the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as a function of time with different degrees of severity using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The key idea of the paper is to enhance the generic process of reasoning with fuzzy logic and neural network by adding the additional step of attributes simulation, as unprecedented events do not occur all of a sudden but rather their occurrence is affected by change in the values of a set of attributes. An ANFIS approach is used to identify the occurrence and severity of an event, depending on the values of its trigger attributes.

Trends and Directions in the Development of Wastewater Reclamation and Reuse Technology for Alternative Water Resources (대체수자원 확보를 위한 하수 재이용 기술 동향과 발전방향)

  • Cho, Il Hyoung;Lee, Si Jin;Kim, Ji Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.127-137
    • /
    • 2013
  • Reuse of wastewater will intensify in the coming decades due to water shortage, the change of climatic conditions, the need for industrial and agricultural use and the necessity of improving health and environmental conditions for the growing population. This paper considers (a) the status and trends of wastewater reuse and reclamation in the world, (b) case studies of wastewater reuse projects, (c) analysis of technology level, (d) forecast of global market, and (e) the future views and directions in development of wastewater reuse technologies. Based on the available documented literature, this paper provides a review assessment of the current status of the wastewater treatment processes including potential applications for reuse. Key challenges for both wastewater treatment and reuse are also discussed in the paper and include recommendations, e.g. cost, effluent water quality, energy use and technical solutions, for future developments.

Capability Assessment on Meteorological Technology - Comparative Study of Technological Prowess on Korea, U.S., and Japan - (국가 기상기술력 수준 평가 - 한국, 미국, 일본을 대상으로 한 비교 연구 -)

  • Kim, Se-Won;Park, Gil-Un;Cho, Changbum;Lee, Young-Gon;Yim, Deok-Bin
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.319-336
    • /
    • 2011
  • The objective of this study was to assess the meteorological capability of Korea by comparing with that of the U.S. and Japan as of 2010. The research was conducted based on various indices and surveys, and quantified the results using the Gordon's scoring model. The index assessment used 11 items derived from 9 segments - surface observation, advanced observation and observations quality in the observation field; data assimilation, numerical model and infrastructure in the data processing field; forecast accuracy in the forecast field; climate prediction and climate change in the climate field - in this research, we classified the meteorological technology into four fields. In the survey assessment, another 10 items in addition to the above 11 ones (total 21 items) were used. In the field of climate, Korea was found to lag far behind the U.S. (96.5p) and Japan (90.5p) with 77.6 points out of 100, which is 18.9 and 12.9 points lower than them respectively. On the other hand, Korea showed the narrowest gap with Japan (95.3p) and the U.S. (94.2) in the forecasting field, recording 90.3 points. Particularly, in surface observation, infrastructure and forecast accuracy segment, Korea was on a par with the U.S. and Japan, boasting 100.5 percent compared to their counterparts. However, in advanced observation, data quality and climate change segment, Korea was only at the level of 81.5 percent compared to that of the U.S. and Japan. All in all, the technological prowess of Korea, scoring 84.6 points, stood at 89.7 percent of that of the U.S. (94.3p) and 91.9 percent of Japan (92.1p).

Discovering Promising Convergence Technologies Using Network Analysis of Maturity and Dependency of Technology (기술 성숙도 및 의존도의 네트워크 분석을 통한 유망 융합 기술 발굴 방법론)

  • Choi, Hochang;Kwahk, Kee-Young;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.101-124
    • /
    • 2018
  • Recently, most of the technologies have been developed in various forms through the advancement of single technology or interaction with other technologies. Particularly, these technologies have the characteristic of the convergence caused by the interaction between two or more techniques. In addition, efforts in responding to technological changes by advance are continuously increasing through forecasting promising convergence technologies that will emerge in the near future. According to this phenomenon, many researchers are attempting to perform various analyses about forecasting promising convergence technologies. A convergence technology has characteristics of various technologies according to the principle of generation. Therefore, forecasting promising convergence technologies is much more difficult than forecasting general technologies with high growth potential. Nevertheless, some achievements have been confirmed in an attempt to forecasting promising technologies using big data analysis and social network analysis. Studies of convergence technology through data analysis are actively conducted with the theme of discovering new convergence technologies and analyzing their trends. According that, information about new convergence technologies is being provided more abundantly than in the past. However, existing methods in analyzing convergence technology have some limitations. Firstly, most studies deal with convergence technology analyze data through predefined technology classifications. The technologies appearing recently tend to have characteristics of convergence and thus consist of technologies from various fields. In other words, the new convergence technologies may not belong to the defined classification. Therefore, the existing method does not properly reflect the dynamic change of the convergence phenomenon. Secondly, in order to forecast the promising convergence technologies, most of the existing analysis method use the general purpose indicators in process. This method does not fully utilize the specificity of convergence phenomenon. The new convergence technology is highly dependent on the existing technology, which is the origin of that technology. Based on that, it can grow into the independent field or disappear rapidly, according to the change of the dependent technology. In the existing analysis, the potential growth of convergence technology is judged through the traditional indicators designed from the general purpose. However, these indicators do not reflect the principle of convergence. In other words, these indicators do not reflect the characteristics of convergence technology, which brings the meaning of new technologies emerge through two or more mature technologies and grown technologies affect the creation of another technology. Thirdly, previous studies do not provide objective methods for evaluating the accuracy of models in forecasting promising convergence technologies. In the studies of convergence technology, the subject of forecasting promising technologies was relatively insufficient due to the complexity of the field. Therefore, it is difficult to find a method to evaluate the accuracy of the model that forecasting promising convergence technologies. In order to activate the field of forecasting promising convergence technology, it is important to establish a method for objectively verifying and evaluating the accuracy of the model proposed by each study. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for analysis of convergence technologies. First of all, through topic modeling, we derive a new technology classification in terms of text content. It reflects the dynamic change of the actual technology market, not the existing fixed classification standard. In addition, we identify the influence relationships between technologies through the topic correspondence weights of each document, and structuralize them into a network. In addition, we devise a centrality indicator (PGC, potential growth centrality) to forecast the future growth of technology by utilizing the centrality information of each technology. It reflects the convergence characteristics of each technology, according to technology maturity and interdependence between technologies. Along with this, we propose a method to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting model by measuring the growth rate of promising technology. It is based on the variation of potential growth centrality by period. In this paper, we conduct experiments with 13,477 patent documents dealing with technical contents to evaluate the performance and practical applicability of the proposed method. As a result, it is confirmed that the forecast model based on a centrality indicator of the proposed method has a maximum forecast accuracy of about 2.88 times higher than the accuracy of the forecast model based on the currently used network indicators.

Suggestion of nuclear hydrogen supply by analyzing status of domestic hydrogen demand (국내 수소 수요현황 파악을 통한 원자력 수소의 공급 용량 예측 안)

  • Lim, Mee-Sook;Bang, Jin-Hwan;Oh, Jeon-Keun;Yoon, Young-Seek
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.90-97
    • /
    • 2006
  • Hydrogen is used as a chemical feedstock in several important industrial processes, including oil refineries and petro-chemical production. But, nowadays hydrogen is focused as energy carrier on the rising of problems such as exhaustion of fossil fuel and environmental pollution. Thermochemical hydrogen production by nuclear energy has potential to efficiently produce large quantities of hydrogen without producing greenhouse gases, and research of nuclear hydrogen, therefore, has been worked with goal to demonstrate commercial production in 2020. The oil refineries and petro-chemical plant are very large, centralized producers and users of industrial hydrogen, and high-potential early market for hydrogen produced by nuclear energy. Therefore, it is essential to investigate and analyze for state of domestic hydrogen market focused on industrial users. Hydrogen market of petro-chemical industry as demand site was investigated and worked for demand forecast of hydrogen in 2020. Also we suggested possible supply plans of nuclear hydrogen considered regional characteristics and then it can be provided basis for determination of optimal capacity of nuclear hydrogen plant in 2020.