• Atmosphere
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.1-15
• /
• 2014

This study compared ensemble mean and probability forecasts of snow depth amount associated with winter storm over South Korea on 28 December 2012 at five operational forecast centers (CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, KMA, and UMKO). And cause of difference in predicted snow depth at each Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was investigated by using THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data. This snowfall event occurred due to low pressure passing through South Sea of Korea. Amount of 6 hr accumulated snow depth was more than 10 cm over southern region of South Korea In this case study, ECMWF showed best prediction skill for the spatio-temporal distribution of snow depth. At first, ECMWF EPS has been consistently enhancing the indications present in ensemble mean snow depth forecasts from 7-day lead time. Secondly, its ensemble probabilities in excess of 2~5 cm/6 hour have been coincided with observation frequencies. And this snowfall case could be predicted from 5-day lead time by using 10-day lag ensemble mean 6 hr accumulated snow depth distribution. In addition, the cause of good performances at ECMWF EPS in predicted snow depth amounts was due to outstanding prediction ability of forming inversion layer with below $0^{\circ}C$ temperature in low level (below 850 hPa) according to $35^{\circ}N$ at 1-day lead time.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.13 no.6
• /
• pp.2168-2177
• /
• 2018

The unavoidable forecast error of wind power is one of the biggest obstacles for wind farms to participate in day-ahead electricity market. To mitigate the deviation from forecast, installation of energy storage system (ESS) is considered. An accurate model of wind power forecast error is fundamental for ESS sizing. However, previous study shows that the error distribution has variable kurtosis and fat tails, and insufficient measurement data of wind farms would add to the difficulty of modeling. This paper presents a comprehensive way that makes the use of mixed skewness model (MSM) and copula theory to give a better approximation for the distribution of forecast error, and it remains valid even if the dataset is not so well documented. The model is then used to optimize the ESS power and capacity aiming to pay the minimal extra cost. Results show the effectiveness of the new model for finding the optimal size of ESS and increasing the economic benefit.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.56 no.8
• /
• pp.521-528
• /
• 2023

An approach for producing a rip current risk index using the rip current likelihood distribution obtained through the FUNWAVE simulations was applied to a rip current forecast system. The approach originally developed for an observation-based real-time rip current warning system was utilized with wave forecast data instead of observations for the rip current forecast system. The availability of the present approach was checked by comparing the observation-based rip current risk index and the wave forecast-based rip current risk index of the Haeundae Beach in 2021.

• IE interfaces
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.47-60
• /
• 1992

Korean government plans to expand R & D expenditures to 39.8 billion dollars (5 percent of GNP) and to secure 150,000 R & D manpower (30 per 10,000 population) until 2001. This paper deals with industrial research and development manpower and is to forecast the demand of science and technology manpower to keep pace with the economic development goals which includes advancement of science and technology. This is composed of two parts. The first part is the review of the basic concepts of this research while the second one projects and overall future demand of science and technology manpower.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.469-477
• /
• 2015

In this study, the characteristics of main wind direction, vertical temperature and wind speed profile near the Moseulpo airfield for HALE UAV(High Altitude Long Endurance Unmaned Aerial Vehicle) is investigated. The results are summarized as follows, main wind direction is governed by air mass according to season and local wind such as land-sea breeze. The directions of landing and take-off of HALE UAV will be selected as the south-east direction in June ~ August, north-west direction in October ~ March, and south-east direction at daytime in April ~ May, September. Annual variation of temperature at 100 hPa showed that temperature in summer season is lower than winter season. On the other hands, wind speed at 250 hPa in winter season is higher than summer season. The threshold values of temperature and wind speed for HALE UAV flight are $-75^{\circ}C$ and $90ms^{-1}$, which were determined by 5 % frequency value($1.96{\sigma}$), respectively.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
• /
• v.23 no.6
• /
• pp.125-135
• /
• 2020

The uncontrolled urban expansion causes various social, economic problems and natural/environmental problems. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast urban expansion by identifying various factors related to urban expansion. This study aims to forecast it using a decision tree that is widely used in various areas. The study used geographic data such as the area of use, geographical data like elevation and slope, the environmental conservation value assessment map, and population density data for 2006 and 2018. It extracted the new urban expansion areas by comparing the residential, industrial, and commercial zones of the zoning in 2006 and 2018 and derived a decision tree using the 2006 data as independent variables. It is intended to forecast urban expansion in 2030 by applying the data for 2018 to the derived decision tree. The analysis result confirmed that the distance from the green area, the elevation, the grade of the environmental conservation value assessment map, and the distance from the industrial area were important factors in forecasting the urban area expansion. The AUC of 0.95051 showed excellent explanatory power in the ROC analysis performed to verify the accuracy. However, the forecast of the urban area expansion for 2018 using the decision tree was 15,459.98㎢, which was significantly different from the actual urban area of 4,144.93㎢ for 2018. Since many regions use decision tree to forecast urban expansion, they can be useful for identifying which factors affect urban expansion, although they are not suitable for forecasting the expansion of urban region in detail. Identifying such important factors for urban expansion is expected to provide information that can be used in future land, urban, and environmental planning.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.11 no.6
• /
• pp.1548-1555
• /
• 2016

This paper presents an application of time series analysis in hourly wind speed simulation and forecast in Jeju Island, Korea. Autoregressive - moving average (ARMA) model, which is well in description of random data characteristics, is used to analyze historical wind speed data (from year of 2010 to 2012). The ARMA model requires stationary variables of data is satisfied by power law transformation and standardization. In this study, the autocorrelation analysis, Bayesian information criterion and general least squares algorithm is implemented to identify and estimate parameters of wind speed model. The ARMA (2,1) models, fitted to the wind speed data, simulate reference year and forecast hourly wind speed in Jeju Island.

• MALSORI
• /
• no.51
• /
• pp.137-149
• /
• 2004

A weather forecast service with speech recognition is described. This service allows users to get the weather information of all the cities by saying the city names with just one phone call, which was not provided in the previous weather forecast service. Speech recognition is implemented in the intelligent peripheral (IP) of the advanced intelligent network (AIN). The AIN is a telephone network architecture that separates service logic from switching equipment, allowing new services to be added without having to redesign switches to support new services. Experiments in speech recognition show that the recognition accuracy is 90.06% for the general users' speech database. For the laboratory members' speech database, the accuracies are 95.04% and 93.81%, respectively in simulation and in the test on the developed system.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2004.05b
• /
• pp.111-123
• /
• 2004

Recently, though damage caused by intensive rainfall and typhoon happens frequently, we could not forecast or predict a disaster, due to the difficulty of obtaining exact information about it. For efficient disaster management, the most urgent need is the preparation of a flood forecast-warning system. Therefore, we need to provide a program that has the ability of inundation analysis and flood forecast-warning using a geographic information system, and using domestic technology rather than that from foreign countries. In this research, we constructed a FDMS(Flood Disaster Management System) that is able to analyze real-time inundation data, and usins the GIS(Ceographic Information System) with prompt analyzing of hydrologic-topographical parameters and runoff-computation. Moreover, by expressing inundation analysis in three-dimensions, we were able to get to the inundation area with ease. Finally, we expect that the application of this method in the (food forecast-warning system will have great role in reducing casualties and damage.

• Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.253-258
• /
• 1999

This paper is written for the purpose of obtaining the information about the weather easily by the development of weather forecast system sensing temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure as key information. For this, data is obtained from the Weather Bureau, and analyzed in order to set a standard of weather forecast from the collected data. The pressure sensor and temperature-humidity sensor are fabricated using the piezoresistive effect of semiconductor, which are used to collect data. The weather forecast system is made using microprocessor.