• Title/Summary/Keyword: Task completion probability

Search Result 13, Processing Time 0.018 seconds

RISK ANALYSIS FOR INDUSTRIAL PROJECT IN CONSTRUCTION PHASE: A MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION APPROACH

  • Soo-Yong Kim;Luu Truong Van;Han-Ki Ha;Nguyen Quoc Tuan
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
    • /
    • 2007.03a
    • /
    • pp.130-139
    • /
    • 2007
  • This paper presents a study on risk analysis in terms of contractor's costs in construction phase in which Crystal ball (software of Decisioneering, UK) has been utilized as a main tool. To realize it, a questionnaire survey has been carried out to identify the dominant factors that strongly influence contractor costs in Vietnam. Based on results of questionnaire investigation, the survey identified three factors which were duration of each construction task, costs of reinforcing steel, and cement. Then a spreadsheet model was created in order to analyze risks. The study also indicates that the cost of reinforcing steel and cement are the cause of risks for contractors. According to the suggested model, contractors may foresee the probability of completion within the approved budget, and the possibility of earning in accordance with owner's payment conditions.

  • PDF

Buffer Sizing Method of CCPM Technique Using Statistical Analysis (통계분석을 이용한 CCPM 기법에서의 버퍼 산정방법)

  • Liu, Jing-Chao;WhangBo, Taeg-Keun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.12 no.8
    • /
    • pp.29-36
    • /
    • 2012
  • In CCPM Technique, as the buffer size calculation method, the Cut and Paste(C&P) method and the Root Square Error (RSE) method for all tasks carried out the same treatment, without considering the actual situation and characteristics of the task, the lack of reasonable judgment, is too simple and hasty. In this paper, taking into account the limitations of existing methods, a new method of buffer sizing method based on statistical analysis was introduced. It makes statistical analysis for the relationship between each worker and a variety of tasks, and use the information to predict the next task time. In order to verify the effectiveness of the new method, according to different task difficulty and the number of tasks set up the project. Use C&P, RSE method and new methods to predict the time of the project. Through Monte Carlo Simulation to simulate the project time, a comparison of three methods of performance. The results show that the new method can achieve the managers expect the probability of completion, and for those tasks can be completed ahead of schedule, the new method can save project time.

Using the METHONTOLOGY Approach to a Graduation Screen Ontology Development: An Experiential Investigation of the METHONTOLOGY Framework

  • Park, Jin-Soo;Sung, Ki-Moon;Moon, Se-Won
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.125-155
    • /
    • 2010
  • Ontologies have been adopted in various business and scientific communities as a key component of the Semantic Web. Despite the increasing importance of ontologies, ontology developers still perceive construction tasks as a challenge. A clearly defined and well-structured methodology can reduce the time required to develop an ontology and increase the probability of success of a project. However, no reliable knowledge-engineering methodology for ontology development currently exists; every methodology has been tailored toward the development of a particular ontology. In this study, we developed a Graduation Screen Ontology (GSO). The graduation screen domain was chosen for the several reasons. First, the graduation screen process is a complicated task requiring a complex reasoning process. Second, GSO may be reused for other universities because the graduation screen process is similar for most universities. Finally, GSO can be built within a given period because the size of the selected domain is reasonable. No standard ontology development methodology exists; thus, one of the existing ontology development methodologies had to be chosen. The most important considerations for selecting the ontology development methodology of GSO included whether it can be applied to a new domain; whether it covers a broader set of development tasks; and whether it gives sufficient explanation of each development task. We evaluated various ontology development methodologies based on the evaluation framework proposed by G$\acute{o}$mez-P$\acute{e}$rez et al. We concluded that METHONTOLOGY was the most applicable to the building of GSO for this study. METHONTOLOGY was derived from the experience of developing Chemical Ontology at the Polytechnic University of Madrid by Fern$\acute{a}$ndez-L$\acute{o}$pez et al. and is regarded as the most mature ontology development methodology. METHONTOLOGY describes a very detailed approach for building an ontology under a centralized development environment at the conceptual level. This methodology consists of three broad processes, with each process containing specific sub-processes: management (scheduling, control, and quality assurance); development (specification, conceptualization, formalization, implementation, and maintenance); and support process (knowledge acquisition, evaluation, documentation, configuration management, and integration). An ontology development language and ontology development tool for GSO construction also had to be selected. We adopted OWL-DL as the ontology development language. OWL was selected because of its computational quality of consistency in checking and classification, which is crucial in developing coherent and useful ontological models for very complex domains. In addition, Protege-OWL was chosen for an ontology development tool because it is supported by METHONTOLOGY and is widely used because of its platform-independent characteristics. Based on the GSO development experience of the researchers, some issues relating to the METHONTOLOGY, OWL-DL, and Prot$\acute{e}$g$\acute{e}$-OWL were identified. We focused on presenting drawbacks of METHONTOLOGY and discussing how each weakness could be addressed. First, METHONTOLOGY insists that domain experts who do not have ontology construction experience can easily build ontologies. However, it is still difficult for these domain experts to develop a sophisticated ontology, especially if they have insufficient background knowledge related to the ontology. Second, METHONTOLOGY does not include a development stage called the "feasibility study." This pre-development stage helps developers ensure not only that a planned ontology is necessary and sufficiently valuable to begin an ontology building project, but also to determine whether the project will be successful. Third, METHONTOLOGY excludes an explanation on the use and integration of existing ontologies. If an additional stage for considering reuse is introduced, developers might share benefits of reuse. Fourth, METHONTOLOGY fails to address the importance of collaboration. This methodology needs to explain the allocation of specific tasks to different developer groups, and how to combine these tasks once specific given jobs are completed. Fifth, METHONTOLOGY fails to suggest the methods and techniques applied in the conceptualization stage sufficiently. Introducing methods of concept extraction from multiple informal sources or methods of identifying relations may enhance the quality of ontologies. Sixth, METHONTOLOGY does not provide an evaluation process to confirm whether WebODE perfectly transforms a conceptual ontology into a formal ontology. It also does not guarantee whether the outcomes of the conceptualization stage are completely reflected in the implementation stage. Seventh, METHONTOLOGY needs to add criteria for user evaluation of the actual use of the constructed ontology under user environments. Eighth, although METHONTOLOGY allows continual knowledge acquisition while working on the ontology development process, consistent updates can be difficult for developers. Ninth, METHONTOLOGY demands that developers complete various documents during the conceptualization stage; thus, it can be considered a heavy methodology. Adopting an agile methodology will result in reinforcing active communication among developers and reducing the burden of documentation completion. Finally, this study concludes with contributions and practical implications. No previous research has addressed issues related to METHONTOLOGY from empirical experiences; this study is an initial attempt. In addition, several lessons learned from the development experience are discussed. This study also affords some insights for ontology methodology researchers who want to design a more advanced ontology development methodology.