• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.35-48
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• 2014

According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.472-480
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• 1998

We reviewed the surgical results of intracardiac lateral tunnel Fontan procedure for the repair of functional single ventricles. Between 1990 and 1996, 104 patients underwent total cavopulmonary anastomosis. Patients' age and body weight averaged 35.9(range 10 to 173) months and 12.8(range 6.5 to 37.8) kg. Preoperative diagnoses included 18 tricuspid atresias and 53 double inlet ventricles with univentricular atrioventricular connection and 33 other complex lesions. Previous palliative operations were performed in 50 of these patients, including 37 systemic to pulmonary artery shunts, 13 pulmonary artery bandings, 15 surgical atrial septectomies, 2 arterial switch procedures, 2 resections of subaortic conus, 2 repairs of total anomalous pulmonary venous connection and 1 Damus-Stansel-Kaye procedure. In 19 patients bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt operation was performed before the Fontan procedure and in 1 patient a Kawashima procedure was required. Preoperative hemodynamics revealed a mean pulmonary artery pressure of 14.6(range 5 to 28) mmHg, a mean pulmonary vascular resistance of 2.2(range 0.4 to 6.9) wood-unit, a mean pulmonary to systemic flow ratio of 0.9(range 0.3 to 3.0), a mean ventricular end-diastolic pressure of 9.0 (range 3.0 to 21.0) mmHg, and a mean arterial oxygen saturation of 76.0(range 45.6 to 88.0)%. The operative procedure consisted of a longitudinal right atriotomy 2cm lateral to the terminal crest up to the right atrial auricle, followed by the creation of a lateral tunnel connecting the orifices of either the superior caval vein or the right atrial auricle to the inferior caval vein, using a Gore-Tex vascular graft with or without a fenestration. Concomitant procedures at the time of Fontan procedure included 22 pulmonary artery angioplasties, 21 atrial septectomies, 4 atrioventricular valve replacements or repairs, 4 corrections of anomalous pulmonary venous connection, and 3 permanent pacemaker implantations. In 31, a fenestration was created, and in 1 an adjustable communication was made in the lateral tunnel pathway. One lateral tunnel conversion was performed in a patient with recurrent intractable tachyarrhythmia 4 years after the initial atriopulmonary connection. Post-extubation hemodynamic data revealed a mean pulmonary artery pressure of 12.7(range 8 to 21) mmHg, a mean ventricular end-diastolic pressure of 7.6(range 4 to 12) mmHg, and a mean room-air arterial oxygen saturation of 89.9(range 68 to 100) %. The follow-up duration was, on average, 27(range 1 to 85) months. Post-Fontan complications included 11 prolonged pleural effusions, 8 arrhythmias, 9 chylothoraces, 5 of damage to the central nervous system, 5 infectious complications, and 4 of acute renal failure. Seven early(6.7%) and 5 late(4.8%) deaths occured. These results proved that the lateral tunnel Fontan procedure provided excellent hemodynamic improvements with acceptable mortality and morbidity for hearts with various types of functional single ventricle.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.69-76
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• 2013

The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.