• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.152-152
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• 2022

Only employing historical data limits the estimation of the full distribution of probable Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk due to the insufficiency of samples. Addressing this limitation, this study introduces a semi-physical TC rainfall model that produces spatially and temporally resolved TC rainfall data to improve TC risk assessments. The model combines a statistical-based track model based on the Markov renewal process to produce synthetic TC tracks, with a physics-based model that considers the interaction between TC and the atmospheric environment to estimate TC rainfall. The simulated data from the combined model are then fitted to a probability distribution function to compute the spatially heterogeneous risk brought by landfalling TCs. The methodology is employed in South Korea as a case study to be able to implement a country-scale-based vulnerability inspection from damaging TC impacts. Results show that the proposed model can produce TC tracks that do not only follow the spatial distribution of past TCs but also reveal new paths that could be utilized to consider events outside of what has been historically observed. The model is also found to be suitable for properly estimating the total rainfall induced by landfalling TCs across various points of interest within the study area. The simulated TC rainfall data enable us to reliably estimate extreme rainfall from higher return periods that are often overlooked when only the historical data is employed. In addition, the model can properly describe the distribution of rainfall extremes that show a heterogeneous pattern throughout the study area and that vary per return period. Overall, results show that the proposed approach can be a valuable tool in providing sufficient TC rainfall samples that could be an aid in improving TC risk assessment.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제36권5호
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• pp.460-475
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• 2015

A number of heavy rainfall events on the Korean Peninsula are indirectly influenced by tropical cyclones (TCs) when they are located in southeastern China. In this study, a heavy rainfall case in the middle Korean region is selected to examine the influence of typhoon simulation performance on predictability of remote rainfall over Korea as well as direct rainfall over Taiwan. Four different numerical experiments are conducted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, toggling on and off two different improvements on typhoon in the model initial condition (IC), which are TC bogussing initialization and dropwindsonde observation data assimilation (DA). The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory TC initialization algorithm is implemented to generate the bogused vortex instead of the initial typhoon, while the airborne observation obtained from dropwindsonde is applied by WRF Three-dimensional variational data assimilation. Results show that use of both TC initialization and DA improves predictability of TC track as well as rainfall over Korea and Taiwan. Without any of IC improvement usage, the intensity of TC is underestimated during the simulation. Using TC initialization alone improves simulation of direct rainfall but not of indirect rainfall, while using DA alone has a negative impact on the TC track forecast. This study confirms that the well-suited TC simulation over southeastern China improves remote rainfall predictability over Korea as well as TC direct rainfall over Taiwan.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.121-121
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• 2020

Varying dominant processes, including Tropical Cyclone (TC) and non-TC rainfall events, have been known to drive the occurrence of precipitation in South Korea. With the changes in the pattern of the Earth's climate due to anthropogenic activities, nonstationarity or changes in the magnitude and frequency of these dominant processes have been separately observed for the past decades and are expected to continue in the coming years. These changes often cause unprecedented hydrologic events such as extreme flooding which pose a greater risk to the society. This study aims to take into account a more reliable future climate condition with two dominant processes. Diverse statistical models including the hidden markov chain, K-nearest neighbor algorithm, and quantile mappings are utilized to mimic future rainfall events based on the recorded historical data with the consideration of the varying effects of TC and non-TC events. The data generated is then utilized to the hydrologic model to conduct a flood frequency analysis. Results in this study emphasize the need to consider the nonstationarity of design rainfalls to fully grasp the degree of future flooding events when designing urban water infrastructures.

• 한국관개배수논문집
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.87-100
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• 2011

This study is to delineate the watershed hydrological parameters such as area, slope, rain gauge weight, NRCS-CN and time of concentration (Tc) by using the Geographic Information Sytem (GIS) technique, and estimation of design flood for an ungauged watershed. Especially, we attempted to determine the Tc of ungauged watershed and develop simple program using the cell-based algorithm to calculates upstream or downstream flow time along a flow path for each cell. For a $19km^2$ watershed of tributary of Nakdong river (Seupmoon), the parameters including flow direction, flow accumulation, watershed boundary, stream network and Tc map were extracted from 30m Agreeburn DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and landcover map. And NRCS-CN was extracted from 30m landcover map and soil map. Design rainfall estimation for two rainfall gauge which are Sunsan and Jangcheon using FARD2006 that developed by National Institute for Disaster Prevention (NIDP). Using the parameters as input data of HEC-l model, the design flood was estimated by applying Clark unit hydrograph method. The results showed that the design flood of 50 year frequency of this study was $8m^3/sec$ less than that of the previous fundamental plan in 1994. The value difference came from the different application of watershed parameter, different rainfall distribution (Huff quartile vs. Mononobe) and critical durations. We could infer that the GIS-based parameter preparation is more reasonable than the previous hand-made extraction of watershed parameters.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제25권9호
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• pp.5-14
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• 2024

우리나라는 최근 5년(2019년~2023년)간 발생한 강우의 모든 기록이 경신 될 만큼 집중호우의 발생빈도와 강도가 급증하고 있다. 소규모 산지 유역은 수문분석에 필요한 관측시설의 미비로 자료확보가 어려워 국지성 집중호우로 인한 돌발홍수에 대한 사전 대비가 어려운 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 국내 소규모 산지유역인 충청북도 괴산군에 위치한 비도교 유역을 대상으로 최적화된 매개변수와 홍수량산정 표준지침에서 제시한 매개변수를 활용하여 산출된 설계홍수량을 비교하였다. 강우-유출모형은 HEC-HMS를 활용하여 모의하였으며, 모형 구축을 위한 유역특성인자는 Q-GIS를 활용하여 수치표고모형(DEM)을 바탕으로 산출하였다. 호우사상은 국가수자원관리종합정보시스템에서 제공하는 수문기상자료를 이용하여 5개의 호우사상을 선정하였다. 모형구동에 필요한 도달시간(Tc)과 저류상수(K)는 홍수량산정 표준지침에서 제시하는 서경대 공식과 강우-유출모형의 최적화를 통해 각각 산정하였다. 모의한 호우사상을 비교한 결과 연구유역인 소규모 산지유역의 경우 서경대 공식으로 산출한 매개변수보다 최적화된 매개변수로 산출된 홍수 사상의 목적함수 값이 높은 것을 확인하였다. 또한, 최적화된 매개변수를 바탕으로 비도교 유역의 설계홍수량을 산정하여 전국하천유역 홍수량 산정보고서의 결과와 비교한 결과, 보고서에서 산정한 값과 최적화 매개변수로 산정한 값이 -10.7%~17.3% 차이로 산정되었다. 소규모 산지 유역인 비도교 유역에 두 매개변수로 산출된 홍수량값을 관측값과 비교했을때, 최적화된 매개변수로 산출된 값이 관측값과 더 유사한 것으로 보아, 홍수량산정 표준지침에서 권장하는 서경대 공식을 국내 모든 유역에 일괄적으로 적용하기에는 한계점이 존재한다고 판단된다. 추가적인 연구를 통해 국내 소규모 산지유역에 적합한 매개변수 산정기법을 개발하고자 한다.

• 한국관개배수논문집
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.105-114
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• 2010

Tidal land reclamation provided water resources and land for agriculture and contributed stable crop production. However, climate change by global warming disrupts the hydrologic circulatory system of the earth resulting in sea level rise and more frequent flood for reclaimed arable land. Recently, Suyu reclaimed paddy field in Jindo-gun experienced prolonged inundation after heavy rainfall and there is a growing risk of flood damage. Onsite survey and flood analysis using GATE_Pro model of Korea Rural Corporation were conducted to investigate causes of flooding. To perform the analysis, input data such as inflow hydrograph, the lowest elevation of paddy field, neap tide level, management level of Gunnae estuary lake at the time of the flood were collected. Flood analysis confirmed that current drainage facilities are not enough to prevent 20year return period flood. The result of analysis showed flooding more than 24hours. Therefore, flood mitigation alternatives such as sluice gate expansion, installation drainage pumping station, refill paddy land, and catch canal were studied. Replacing drainage culvert of Suyu dike to sluice gate and installing drainage pumping station at the Gunne lake were identified as an effective flood control measures. Furthermore, TM/TC (SCADA) system and expert for gate management are required for the better management of drainage for estuary dam and flood mitigation.

• 대한환경공학회지
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• 제37권8호
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• pp.465-471
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• 2015

불포화대 암반 단열에서 방사성 핵종인 $^3H$, $^{90}Sr$ and $^{99}Tc$의 흡착실험이 진행되었다. 천층처분시설의 인공방벽을 통과해 누출된 방사성 핵종은 빗물이나 공극수에 의해 불포화대 암반 단열을 통하여 지하수로 도달하게 된다. 그러므로 처분장의 장기간 안전점검을 위해, 불포화대 암반 단열을 통한 방사성 핵종의 거동을 연구하는 것이 중요하다. 천층처분주변에서 채취된 불포화대 암반 단열 샘플을 이용하여 X-ray microtomography 분석을 수행하였고, 회분식 흡착실험을 이용하여 방사성 핵종인 $^3H$, $^{90}Sr$ and $^{99}Tc$의 흡착실험이 진행되었다. 암반 단열의 충전물질로 불석광물 및 점토광물 존재 시 중흡착성 핵종인 $^{90}Sr$의 흡착 분배계수 값이 충전물질이 존재하지 않을 때 보다 높게 나타내었다. 본 연구를 통해, 암반 단열 특성화 및 방사성 핵종의 흡착분배계수를 구했으며, 불포화대 암반 단열을 통한 핵종의 거동이 지연됨을 이해할 수 있었다.