• Title/Summary/Keyword: Surrogate model

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Rational Building Energy Assessment using Global Sensitivity Analysis (전역 민감도 분석을 이용한 건물 에너지 성능평가의 합리적 개선)

  • Yoo, Young-Seo;Yi, Dong-Hyuk;Kim, Sun-Sook;Park, Cheol-Soo
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2020
  • The building energy performance indicator, called Energy Performance Index (EPI), has been used for the past decades in South Korea. It has a list of design variables assigned with weighting factors (a, b). Unfortunately, the current EPI method is not performance-based but very close to a prescriptive rating. With this in mind, this study aims to propose a new performance-based EPI method. For this purpose, a global sensitivity analysis method, Sobol, is employed. The Sobol method is suitable for complex nonlinear models and can decompose all the output variance due to every input. The Sobol sensitivity index of each variable is defined as 0 to 1 (0 to 100%), and the sum of all sensitivity indices is equal to 1 (100%). In this study, an office building was modeled using EnergyPlus and then the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) was conducted to generate a surrogate model to EnergyPlus. The sensitivity index was suggested to replace weight (a) in the existing EPI. In addition, the discrete weight (b) in the existing EPI was replaced by a set of continuous regression functions. Due to the introduction of the sensitivity index and the continuous regression functions, the new proposed approach can provide far more accurate outcome than the existing EPI (R2: 0.83 vs. R2: 0.01 for cooling, R2: 0.66 vs. R2: 0.01 for total energy). The new proposed approach proves to be more rational, objective and performance-based than the existing EPI method.

Visualization of Doublet Impinging Jet Spray in Supercritical Mixed Hydrocarbon Fluid (초임계 탄화수소계열 혼합유체의 이중 충돌 제트 분무 가시화)

  • Song, Juyeon;Choi, Myeung Hwan;An, Jeongwoo;Koo, Jaye
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2021
  • Based on surrogate model, a hydrocarbon mixture was analyzed by visualizing the impinging break up mechanism in subcritical and supercritical conditions. Decane and methylcyclohexane with different critical pressures and temperatures were selected as experimental fluids. The impinging injector was installed inside the chamber, and the spray was visualized through a speed camera in subcritical and supercritical conditions. The injection condition of the mixture and chamber was kept constant at Pr(P/Pc) = 1, and Tr(T/Tc) was increased from 0.48 to 1.02. As Tr increased, the spray angle increased, and the sheet length decreased as the properties of the mixture reached each critical point. In addition, when the mixture approached the near critical point, it was shown that the change in density gradient was largely observed out of the impinging break up mechanism.

Linear Model Predictive Control of an Entrained-flow Gasifier for an IGCC Power Plant (석탄 가스화 복합 발전 플랜트의 분류층 가스화기 제어를 위한 선형 모델 예측 제어 기법)

  • Lee, Hyojin;Lee, Jay H.
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.592-602
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    • 2014
  • In the Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC), the stability of the gasifier has strong influences on the rest of the plant as it supplies the feed to the rest of the power generation system. In order to ensure a safe and stable operation of the entrained-flow gasifier and for protection of the gasifier wall from the high internal temperature, the solid slag layer thickness should be regulated tightly but its control is hampered by the lack of on-line measurement for it. In this study, a previously published dynamic simulation model of a Shell-type gasifier is reproduced and two different linear model predictive control strategies are simulated and compared for multivariable control of the entrained-flow gasifier. The first approach is to control a measured secondary variable as a surrogate to the unmeasured slag thickness. The control results of this approach depended strongly on the unmeasured disturbance type. In other words, the slag thickness could not be controlled tightly for a certain type of unmeasured disturbance. The second approach is to estimate the unmeasured slag thickness through the Kalman filter and to use the estimate to predict and control the slag thickness directly. Using the second approach, the slag thickness could be controlled well regardless of the type of unmeasured disturbances.

A Numerical Study on the Extinguishing Effects of CO2 in Counterflow Diffusion Flames with the Concept of Local Application System (국소방출방식 개념의 대향류 확산화염에서 CO2 소화효과에 관한 수치해석 연구)

  • Mun, Sun-Yeo;Park, Chung-Hwa;Hwang, Cheol-Hong;Oh, Chang-Bo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2012
  • The suppression mechanisms of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) as a representative fire suppression agent were revisited using a counterflow diffusion flame which could be applied the concept of a local application system. To end this, the low strain rate $CH_4$/air counterflow diffusions with $CO_2$ addition in either fuel or oxidizer stream were examined numerically using detailed-kinetic chemistry. Radiative heat loss due to radiating gas species including $CO_2$ added was considered by the optically thin model (OTM). As a result, the critical $CO_2$ volume fractions in the oxidizer stream required to extinguish the flame were in good agreement with the experimental data reported in the literature, while somewhat under-prediction was observed with $CO_2$ added in the fuel stream. The surrogate agents were adopted to estimate the quantitative contribution with changing in global strain rate ($a_g$) on the flame extinguishment among pure dilution effect, thermal effects including radiation heat loss and chemical effect due to the $CO_2$ fire suppression agent.

Health and Economic Burden Attributable to Particulate Matter in South Korea: Considering Spatial Variation in Relative Risk (지역간 상대위험도 변동을 고려한 미세먼지 기인 질병부담 및 사회경제적 비용 추정 연구)

  • Byun, Garam;Choi, Yongsoo;Gil, Junsu;Cha, Junil;Lee, Meehye;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.486-495
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    • 2021
  • Background: Particulate matter (PM) is one of the leading causes of premature death worldwide. Previous studies in South Korea have applied a relative risk calculated from Western populations when estimating the disease burden attributable to PM. However, the relative risk of PM on health outcomes may not be the same across different countries or regions. Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the premature deaths and socioeconomic costs attributable to long-term exposure to PM in South Korea. We considered not only the difference in PM concentration between regions, but also the difference in relative risk. Methods: National monitoring data of PM concentrations was obtained, and missing values were imputed using the AERMOD model and linear regression model. As a surrogate for relative risk, hazard ratios (HRs) of PM for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were estimated using the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort. The nation was divided into five areas (metropolitan, central, southern, south-eastern, and Gangwon-do Province regions). The number of PM attributable deaths in 2018 was calculated at the district level. The socioeconomic cost was derived by multiplying the number of deaths and the statistical value of life. Results: The average PM10 concentration for 2014~2018 was 45.2 ㎍/m3. The association between long-term exposure to PM10 and mortality was heterogeneous between areas. When applying area-specific HRs, 23,811 premature deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease in 2018 were attributable to PM10 (reference level 20 ㎍/m3). The corresponding socioeconomic cost was about 31 trillion won. These estimated values were higher than that when applying nationwide HRs. Conclusions: This study is the first research to estimate the premature mortality caused by long-term exposure to PM using relative risks derived from the national population. This study will help precisely identify the national and regional health burden attributed to PM and establish the priorities of air quality policy.

Development of a surrogate model based on temperature for estimation of evapotranspiration and its use for drought index applicability assessment (증발산 산정을 위한 온도기반의 대체모형 개발 및 가뭄지수 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Ho-Jun;Kim, Kyoungwook;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.969-983
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    • 2021
  • Evapotranspiration, one of the hydrometeorological components, is considered an important variable for water resource planning and management and is primarily used as input data for hydrological models such as water balance models. The FAO56 PM method has been recommended as a standard approach to estimate the reference evapotranspiration with relatively high accuracy. However, the FAO56 PM method is often challenging to apply because it requires considerable hydrometeorological variables. In this perspective, the Hargreaves equation has been widely adopted to estimate the reference evapotranspiration. In this study, a set of parameters of the Hargreaves equation was calibrated with relatively long-term data within a Bayesian framework. Statistical index (CC, RMSE, IoA) is used to validate the model. RMSE for monthly results reduced from 7.94 ~ 24.91 mm/month to 7.94 ~ 24.91 mm/month for the validation period. The results confirmed that the accuracy was significantly improved compared to the existing Hargreaves equation. Further, the evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) based on the evaporative demand (E0) was proposed. To confirm the effectiveness of the EDDI, this study evaluated the estimated EDDI for the recent drought events from 2014 to 2015 and 2018, along with precipitation and SPI. As a result of the evaluation of the Han-river watershed in 2018, the weekly EDDI increased to more than 2 and it was confirmed that EDDI more effectively detects the onset of drought caused by heatwaves. EDDI can be used as a drought index, particularly for heatwave-driven flash drought monitoring and along with SPI.

Development of Optimal Antiviral Coating Method for the Air Filtration System of Subway Station (지하역사 승강장 공조 시스템 필터용 항바이러스 코팅 성능 및 재생 성능 평가)

  • Park, Dae Hoon;Hwang, Jungho;Shin, Dongho;Kim, Younghun;Lee, Gunhee;Park, Inyong;Kim, Sang Bok;Hong, Keejung;Han, Bangwoo
    • Particle and aerosol research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.9-21
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    • 2022
  • In this study, a novel antiviral coating method for the air filtration system of subway station was investigated. Using dry aerosol coating process, we developed a high-performance antiviral air filter with spark discharger and carbon brush type ionizer. Silver nanoparticles were produced by a spark discharge generation system with ion injection system and were used as antiviral agents coated onto a medium grade air filter. The pressure drop, filtration efficiency, and antiviral ability of the filter against aerosolized MS2 virus particles as a surrogate of SARS-CoV-2 virus were tested with dust contamination. Dust contamination caused the increase of the filtration efficiency and pressure drop, while the antiviral agents (in this study, silver nanoparticles) coating did not have any significant effect on the filtration efficiency and pressure drop. Using these properties, we suggested a novel method to maximize the antiviral performance of the antiviral air filter that was contaminated by dust particles. Moreover theoretical analysis of antiviral ability with dust contamination and re-coated antiviral agents was carried out using a mathematical model to calculate the time-dependent antiviral effect of the filter under actual conditions of subway station. Our model can be used to apply on antiviral air filtration system of subway station for prevention of pandemic diffusion, and predict the life cycle of an antiviral filter.

CT Based 3-Dimensional Treatment Planning of Intracavitary Brachytherapy for Cancer of the Cervix : Comparison between Dose-Volume Histograms and ICRU Point Doses to the Rectum and Bladder

  • Hashim, Natasha;Jamalludin, Zulaikha;Ung, Ngie Min;Ho, Gwo Fuang;Malik, Rozita Abdul;Ee Phua, Vincent Chee
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.13
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    • pp.5259-5264
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    • 2014
  • Background: CT based brachytherapy allows 3-dimensional (3D) assessment of organs at risk (OAR) doses with dose volume histograms (DVHs). The purpose of this study was to compare computed tomography (CT) based volumetric calculations and International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) reference-point estimates of radiation doses to the bladder and rectum in patients with carcinoma of the cervix treated with high-dose-rate (HDR) intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT). Materials and Methods: Between March 2011 and May 2012, 20 patients were treated with 55 fractions of brachytherapy using tandem and ovoids and underwent post-implant CT scans. The external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose was 48.6Gy in 27 fractions. HDR brachytherapy was delivered to a dose of 21 Gy in three fractions. The ICRU bladder and rectum point doses along with 4 additional rectal points were recorded. The maximum dose ($D_{Max}$) to rectum was the highest recorded dose at one of these five points. Using the HDRplus 2.6 brachyhtherapy treatment planning system, the bladder and rectum were retrospectively contoured on the 55 CT datasets. The DVHs for rectum and bladder were calculated and the minimum doses to the highest irradiated 2cc area of rectum and bladder were recorded ($D_{2cc}$) for all individual fractions. The mean $D_{2cc}$ of rectum was compared to the means of ICRU rectal point and rectal $D_{Max}$ using the Student's t-test. The mean $D_{2cc}$ of bladder was compared with the mean ICRU bladder point using the same statistical test. The total dose, combining EBRT and HDR brachytherapy, were biologically normalized to the conventional 2 Gy/fraction using the linear-quadratic model. (${\alpha}/{\beta}$ value of 10 Gy for target, 3 Gy for organs at risk). Results: The total prescribed dose was $77.5Gy{\alpha}/{\beta}10$. The mean dose to the rectum was $4.58{\pm}1.22Gy$ for $D_{2cc}$, $3.76{\pm}0.65Gy$ at $D_{ICRU}$ and $4.75{\pm}1.01Gy$ at $D_{Max}$. The mean rectal $D_{2cc}$ dose differed significantly from the mean dose calculated at the ICRU reference point (p<0.005); the mean difference was 0.82 Gy (0.48-1.19Gy). The mean EQD2 was $68.52{\pm}7.24Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ for $D_{2cc}$, $61.71{\pm}2.77Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ at $D_{ICRU}$ and $69.24{\pm}6.02Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ at $D_{Max}$. The mean ratio of $D_{2cc}$ rectum to $D_{ICRU}$ rectum was 1.25 and the mean ratio of $D_{2cc}$ rectum to $D_{Max}$ rectum was 0.98 for all individual fractions. The mean dose to the bladder was $6.00{\pm}1.90Gy$ for $D_{2cc}$ and $5.10{\pm}2.03Gy$ at $D_{ICRU}$. However, the mean $D_{2cc}$ dose did not differ significantly from the mean dose calculated at the ICRU reference point (p=0.307); the mean difference was 0.90 Gy (0.49-1.25Gy). The mean EQD2 was $81.85{\pm}13.03Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ for $D_{2cc}$ and $74.11{\pm}19.39Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ at $D_{ICRU}$. The mean ratio of $D_{2cc}$ bladder to $D_{ICRU}$ bladder was 1.24. In the majority of applications, the maximum dose point was not the ICRU point. On average, the rectum received 77% and bladder received 92% of the prescribed dose. Conclusions: OARs doses assessed by DVH criteria were higher than ICRU point doses. Our data suggest that the estimated dose to the ICRU bladder point may be a reasonable surrogate for the $D_{2cc}$ and rectal $D_{Max}$ for $D_{2cc}$. However, the dose to the ICRU rectal point does not appear to be a reasonable surrogate for the $D_{2cc}$.

A Study on Effectiveness of Safety Barriers Restraining Illegal Pedestrian Crossing on Exclusive Median Bus Corridor - Case Study at Sookmyung Women's University Bus Station - (중앙버스전용차로 분리형 횡단보도 무단횡단 억제시설 효과평가 - 숙명여대 입구 중앙버스정류소 횡단보도부를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jin-Tae;Kim, Jun-Young;Bae, Hyun-Sik;Lee, Dong-Il
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2014
  • It has reported that a median bus-stop island on an exclusive median bus lane (EMBL) has shortened a crossing distance unit, encouraged a pedestrian's illegal crossing, and increased the number of accidents in the area. This study presents (1) the analysis of inappropriate pedestrian crossing patterns collected on exclusive median bus corridors and (2) the estimated performance of safety barriers restraining the occurrence of those. Total 19,649 pedestrian crossing data collected at the 'Sookmyung-university' median bus-stop, and the inappropriate pedestrian crossing patterns among those were grouped in terms of time and space violations. Physical safety barriers restraining illegal pedestrian crossings were considered as an alternative, and its performance in safety was quantified through microscopic simulation with conflict analyses by using surrogate safety assessment model. The findings suggest the number of conflicts reduced be 24.9 percentages compared to the one of the present condition when the physical safety barriers are placed at each of the eight ends of the EMBL pedestrian crossing.

Comparison of Microbiological Risks in Hand-Contact Surfaces of Items in Cafeteria versus Items in Other Facilities in a College Campus (대학 구내 시설물과 급식소 집기의 접촉에 의한 미생물학적 위해성의 정량비교)

  • Zo, Young-Gun
    • Korean Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2013
  • As facilities and equipments for learning activities in college campuses are handled by mass public, their contact surfaces may function as major routes of cross-infection of microbial pathogens. However, unlike items in cafeteria which is the typical target for campus hygiene, those surfaces are not under regular surveillance or sanitary maintenance. In this study, I made a quantitative comparison of the risk of being exposed to microbial pathogens from use of learning facilities such as classrooms and library to the risk from use of cafeteria, for about 1,500 students in a college. Regarding total coliforms as surrogate model of bacterial pathogens, exposure rates were estimated for each item in learning facilities and cafeterias by devising deterministic exposure algorithms based on bacterial abundance, contract rates and transfer rates. The exposure rate in cafeterias was 1.0 CFU/day while learning facilities imposed the rate of 0.5 CFU/day, which reaches a half of the exposure rate in cafeterias. However, 70% of students were exposed more in learning facilities than cafeteria because individuals had different frequencies in using cafeteria. Based on the results, some human-contact surfaces of learning facilities, including elevator buttons, may require regular sanitary maintenance. An efficient sanitary maintenance considering seasonality in diversity of pathogens involved with cross-infections is suggested besides improvement of personal hygiene among students.