• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.18-28
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• 2013

It was compared the estimated parameters by the surplus production from three different models, i.e., three types (Schaefer, Gulland, and Schnute) of the traditional surplus production models, a stock production model incorporating covariates (ASPIC) model and a maximum entropy (ME) model. We also evaluated the performance of models in the estimation of their parameters. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of small yellow croaker (Pseudosciaena polyactis) in Korean waters ranged from 35,061 metric tons (mt) by Gulland model to 44,844mt by ME model, and fishing effort at MSY ($f_{MSY}$) ranged from 262,188hauls by Schnute model to 355,200hauls by ME model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) for small yellow croaker was obtained from the Gulland surplus production model, while the highest RMSE was from Schnute model. However, the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was from the ME model, but the ASPIC model yielded the lowest coefficient. On the other hand, the MSY of Kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon) ranged from 16,880 mt by ASPIC model to 25,373mt by ME model, and $f_{MSY}$, from 94,580hauls by ASPIC model to 225,490hauls by Schnute model. In this case, both the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) were obtained from the ME model, which showed relatively better fits of data to the model, indicating that the ME model is statistically more stable and robust than other models. Moreover, the ME model could provide additional ecologically useful parameters such as, biomass at MSY ($B_{MSY}$), carrying capacity of the population (K), catchability coefficient (q) and the intrinsic rate of population growth (r).

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.19-30
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• 2006

For fishery stock assessment and optimum sustainable yield of anchovy in Korea, surplus production(SP) models and a maximum entropy(ME) model are employed in this paper. For determining appropriate models, five traditional SP models-Schaefer model, Schnute model, Walters and Hilborn model, Fox model, and Clarke, Yoshimoto and Pooley (CYP) model- are tested for effort and catch data of anchovy that occupies 7% in the total fisheries landings of Korea. Only CYP model of five SP models fits statistically significant at the 10% level. Estimated intrinsic growth rates are similar in both CYP and ME models, while environmental carrying capacity of the ME model is quite greater than that of the CYP model. In addition, the estimated maximum sustainable yield(MSY), 213,287 tons in the ME model is slightly higher than that of CYP model (198,364 tons). Biomass for MSY in the ME model, however, is calculated 651,000 tons which is considerably greater than that of the CYP model (322,881 tons). It is meaningful in that two models are compared for noting some implications about any significant difference of stock assessment and their potential strength and weakness.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.139-152
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• 2021

The main purpose of this study is to fit catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data about Korea chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) stock with a state-space production (SSP) model, and to provide stock assessment results. We chose a surplus production model for the chub mackerel data, namely annual yield and CPUE. Then we employed a state-space layer for a production model to consider two sources of variability arising from unmodelled factors (process error) and noise in the data (observation error). We implemented the model via script software ADMB-RE because it reduces the computational cost of high-dimensional integration and provides Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, which is required for Bayesian approaches. To stabilize the numerical optimization, we considered prior distributions for model parameters. Applying the SSP model to data collected from commercial fisheries from 1999 to 2017, we estimated model parameters and management references, as well as uncertainties for the estimates. We also applied various production models and showed parameter estimates and goodness of fit statistics to compare the model performance. This study presents two significant findings. First, we concluded that the stock has been overexploited in terms of harvest rate from 1999 to 2017. Second, we suggest a SSP model for the smallest goodness of fit statistics among several production models, especially for fitting CPUE data with fluctuations.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.216-224
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• 2009

In Japan, since rice consumption has been decreasing with the westernization of Japanese eating habits, surplus paddy fields have been increasing. If these surplus paddy fields can be utilized for forage rice production as feed for animal production and excretions (feces and urine) from animal production can be applied to the paddy fields as manure, then the problems of surplus paddy fields and excretions from animal production may be solved, and the environment kept sustainable. The objectives of the present study were to apply a bio-economic model to dairy and forage rice integration systems in Japan and to examine the merit of introducing whole crop rice silage (WCRS), as well as economic and environmental effects of various economic and management options in the systems. Five simulations were conducted using this model. The use of WCRS as a home-grown feed increased environmental loads and decreased economic benefit because of the higher amount of purchased feed, when compared to the use of typical crops such as maize, alfalfa and timothy silage (simulation 1). Higher economic benefits from higher forage rice yields and higher milk production of a dairy cow were obtained (simulations 2, 3). There were no economic and environmental incentives for utilizing crude protein (CP) rich WCRS, because an increase in the CP content in WCRS led to the use of more chemical fertilizers, resulting in high production costs and nitrogen outputs (simulation 4). When evaluated under the situation of a fixed herd size, increasing forage rice yields decreased the total benefit of the production, in spite of the fact that the amount of subsidies per unit of land increased (simulation 5). It was indicated that excess subsidy support may not promote yield of forage rice. It was, however, observed in most cases that dairy and forage rice integration systems could not be economically established without subsidies.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.54 no.1
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• pp.38-53
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to estimate potential yield (PY) for Korean west coast fisheries using the holistic production method (HPM). HPM involves the use of surplus production models to apply input data of catch and standardized fishing efforts. HPM compared the estimated parameters of the surplus production from four different models: the Fox model, CYP model, ASPIC model, and maximum entropy model. The PY estimates ranged from 174,232 metric tons (mt) using the CYP model to 238,088 mt using the maximum entropy model. The highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$), the lowest root mean square error (RMSE), and the lowest Theil's U statistic (U) for Korean west coast fisheries were obtained from the maximum entropy model. The maximum entropy model showed relatively better fits of data, indicating that the maximum entropy model is statistically more stable and accurate than other models. The estimate from the maximum entropy model is regarded as a more reasonable estimate of PY. The quality of input data should be improved for the future study of PY to obtain more reliable estimates.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.183-191
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• 2019

This study sought to find which model is most appropriate for estimating potential yield in the East Sea, Republic of Korea. For comparison purposes, the Process-error model, ASPIC model, Maximum entropy model, Observation-error model, and Bayesian state-space model were applied using data from catch amounts and total efforts of the whole catchable fishes in the East Sea. Results showed that the Bayesian state-space model was estimated to be the most reliable among the models. Potential yield of catchable species was estimated to be 227,858 tons per year. In addition, it was analyzed that the amount of fishery resources in 2016 was about 63% of the biomass that enables a fish stock to deliver the maximum sustainable yield.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.183-188
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• 2022

It is a difficult task to estimate parameters in even a simple stock assessment model such as a surplus production model, using only data about temporal catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) (or survey index) and fishery yields. Such difficulty is exacerbated when time-varying parameters are treated as random effects (aka state variables). To overcome the difficulty, previous studies incorporated somewhat subjective assumptions (e.g., B₁=K) or informative priors of parameters. A key is how to build an objective joint prior of parameters, reducing subjectivity. Given the limited data on temporal CPUEs and fishery yields from 1999-2020 for common squid Todarodes pacificus, we built a joint prior of only two parameters, intrinsic growth rate (r) and carrying capacity (K), based on the resilience level of the population (Froese et al., 2017), and used a Bayesian state-space production assessment model. We used template model builder (TMB), a R package for implementing the assessment model, and estimating all parameters in the model. The predicted annual biomass was in the range of 0.76×10⁶ to 4.06×10⁶ MT, the estimated MSY was 0.13×10⁶ MT, the estimated r was 0.24, and the estimated K was 2.10×10⁶ MT.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.15-33
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• 2016

This study aims to analyze effectiveness of the resource use under the total allowable catch system (TACs) of Comb pen shell, a species among TAC targeting ones through its stock assessment based on the surplus production model such as the Clark Yoshimoto Pooley (CYP) model. Particularly, this study is separated into five analysis periods in order to understand changes in Comb pen shell resource and its efficient use after TAC system implemented in 2001. The results of this study are as follows. First, five sustainable yield curves (SYCs) and exponential growth functions (EGFs) produced by the surplus production model based on Gompertz growth function to compare before and after implementation of the Korean TAC system show that the TAC system has generated a positive stock rebuilding effect for Comb pen shell caught by the diver fishery since 2001. Secondly, five profits based on differences between the sustainable total revenue (STR) and the total cost (TC) with respect to fishing efforts present that the TAC system has increased efficiency of resource use of Comb pen shell caught by the diver fishery after implementation of the Korean TAC system. In conclusion, the Korean TAC system has increased efficiency of resource use as well as has led a positive stock rebuilding effect for Comb pen shell.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.31-39
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• 2022

This study empirically analyzed the welfare effect of the military purveyance program, which plays an important role in maintaining the sales channel and demand base in Korea's agricultural and livestock industry, as well as the stable supply of safe ingredients for military meals essential for the morale and combat power of soldiers. The military purveyance program causes additional demand for domestic livestock products, affecting the trading volumes and price levels in the market. This will change the welfare of producers and consumers, and affect the welfare of soldiers who are subject to military meals. The analysis results obtained through a simulation method based on the equilibrium displacement model are as follows. In the case of pork delivered for military service, producer surplus increased by KRW 55.3-62.2 billion and consumer surplus decreased by KRW 55.1~62.0 billion based on pork production in 2021. It wad analyzed that the consumer surplus in the military supply market, rather than the conventional market, increased by KRW 96.9 billion won, resulting in a total welfare gain of KRW 97.1 billion.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.363-388
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• 2020

The purposes of this study are to not only estimate optimal harvests and efforts using the surplus production methods for Spanish mackerel caught by multiple fishing gears, but provide dynamic optimal fisheries management for these gears using the current value Hamiltonian method. To achieve the above purposes this study uses several models such as Gavaris's general linear model for standardizing fishing efforts, surplus production method for estimating biological and technological coefficients, current value Hamiltonian method for estimating dynamic optimal harvest and efforts, and sensitivity analysis for diagnosing economic influences of these fisheries. As a result, this study showed that Spanish mackerel was overfished by multiple fishing gears based on surplus production method and the current value Hamiltonian method. Also, this study found that when the price and cost proportionally changed, the optimal harvest and fishing effort sensitively responded to the stock level of Spanish mackerel. Next, this study suggested that the multiple fishing gears for Spanish mackerel should reduce unnecessary costs such as operating time or inefficient fuel consumption. Finally, this study provided reasons Spanish mackerel should be included in the TAC system in a view of profit maximization based on sustainable use of the Spanish mackerel.