• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.111-128
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• 2014

The stochastic response surface method (SRSM) and the response surface method (RSM) are often used for structural reliability analysis, especially for reliability problems with implicit performance functions. This paper aims to compare these two methods in terms of fitting the performance function, accuracy and efficiency in estimating probability of failure as well as statistical moments of system output response. The computational procedures of two response surface methods are briefly introduced first. Then their capabilities are demonstrated and compared in detail through two examples. The results indicate that the probability of failure mainly reflects the accuracy of the response surface function (RSF) fitting the performance function in the vicinity of the design point, while the statistical moments of system output response reflect the accuracy of the RSF fitting the performance function in the entire space. In addition, the performance function can be well fitted by the SRSM with an optimal order polynomial chaos expansion both in the entire physical and in the independent standard normal spaces. However, it can be only well fitted by the RSM in the vicinity of the design point. For reliability problems involving random variables with approximate normal distributions, such as normal, lognormal, and Gumbel Max distributions, both the probability of failure and statistical moments of system output response can be accurately estimated by the SRSM, whereas the RSM can only produce the probability of failure with a reasonable accuracy.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.336-345
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• 2012

In crack growth life, uncertainties are caused by variance of geometry, applied loads and material properties. Therefore, the reliability estimation for these uncertainties is required to keep the robustness of calculated life. The stress intensity factors are the most important variable in crack growth life calculation, but its equation is hard to know for complex geometry, therefore they are processed by the finite element analysis which takes long time. In this paper, the response surface is considered to increase efficiency of the reliability analysis for crack growth life of a turbine wheel. The approximation model of the stress intensity factors is obtained by the regression analysis for FEA data and the response surface of crack growth life is generated for selected factors. The reliability analysis is operated by the Monte Carlo Simulation for the response surface. The results indicate that the response surface could reduce computations that need for reliability analysis for the turbine wheel, which is hard to derive stress intensity factor equation, successfully.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.62 no.2
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• pp.125-138
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• 2017

Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is a powerful tool for design optimization when considering probabilistic characteristics of design variables. However, it is often computationally intensive because of the coupling of reliability analysis and cost minimization. In this study, the concept of reliability mapping function is defined based on the relationship between the reliability index obtained by using the mean value first order reliability method and the failure probability obtained by using an improved response surface method. Double-loop involved in the classical RBDO can be converted into single-loop by using the reliability mapping function. Since the computational effort of the mean value first order reliability method is minimal, RBDO by using reliability mapping functions should be highly efficient. Engineering examples are given to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. Numerical results indicated that the proposed method has the similar accuracy as Monte Carlo simulation, and it can obviously reduce the computational effort.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.407-413
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• 2011

Reliability analysis of pile type quaywalls were done by using response surface method. Pier structures have implicit form of limit state function since they are flexible in motion, which is different from gravity type quaywalls. To solve a reliability analysis problem with implicit limit state function, response surface method was applied. Reliability indices of structure under seismic load were found for pier structures Then, they were compared with those found by simulation method. In numerical analysis, both the inclined type and vertical type were analyzed.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.609-630
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• 2005

A reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper through a combination of the advantages of the response surface method (RSM), finite element method (FEM), first order reliability method (FORM) and the importance sampling updating method. The accuracy and efficiency of the method is demonstrated through several numerical examples. Then the method is used to estimate the serviceability reliability of cable-stayed bridges. Effects of geometric nonlinearity, randomness in loading, material, and geometry are considered. The example cable-stayed bridge is the Second Nanjing Bridge with a main span length of 628 m built in China. The results show that the cable sag that is part of the geometric nonlinearities of cable-stayed bridges has a major effect on the reliability of cable-stayed bridge. Finally, the most influential random variables on the reliability of cable-stayed bridges are identified by using a sensitivity analysis.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.28 no.10
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• pp.1458-1466
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• 2004

Deterministic optimum designs that are obtained without consideration of uncertainties could lead to unrealiable designs. Such deterministic engineering optimization tends to promote the structural system with less reliability redundancy than obtained with conventional design procedures using the factor of safety. Consequently, deterministic optimized structures will usually have higher failure probabilities than unoptimized structures. This paper proposes the reliability based design optimization technique fur apressure tank considering temperature effect. This paper presents an efficient and stable reliability based design optimization method by using the advanced first order second moment method, which evaluates a probabilistic constraint for more accuracy. In addition, the response surface method is utilized to approximate the performance functions describing the system characteristics in the reliability based design optimization procedure.

• Journal of KSNVE
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.735-747
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• 1996

In this paper, buckling reliability analyses of stiffened cylinder with random initial geometric imperfection under axial impact load are performed by the combined response surface method. The effect of random geometric imperfection on the failure probability and reliability is recognized quantitatively. Buckling reliability decreases with the increase of mean value, cov of initial geometric imperfection under the same external load. Buckling probability under impact load is greater than those under static load with the same condition. From the probabilistic characteristics of imapct buckling load, relation between reliability index and safety parameter can be obtained in addition to the relation between load and reliability index. And those results can be used to determine the range of required safety parameter and acceptable imperfaction.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.1-8
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• 2016

PURPOSES : This study evaluates the reliability of the patterns of changes in the road surface temperature during winter using a statistical technique. In addition, a flexible road segmentation method is developed based on the collected road surface temperature data. METHODS : To collect and analyze the data, a thermal mapping system that could be attached to a survey vehicle along with various other sensors was employed. We first selected the test route based on the date and the weather and topographical conditions, since these factors affect the patterns of changes in the road surface temperature. Each route was surveyed a total of 10 times on a round-trip basis at the same times (5 AM to 6 AM). A correlation analysis was performed to identify whether the weather conditions reported for the survey dates were consistent with the actual conditions. In addition, we developed a method for dividing the road into sections based on the consecutive changes in the road surface temperature for use in future applications. Specifically, in this method, the road surface temperature data collected using the thermal mapping system was compared continuously with the average values for the various road sections, and the road was divided into sections based on the temperature. RESULTS : The results showed that the comparison of the reported and actual weather conditions and the standard deviation in the observed road surface temperatures could produce a good indicator of the reliability of the patterns of the changes in the road surface temperature. CONCLUSIONS : This research shows how road surface temperature data can be evaluated using a statistical technique. It also confirms that roads should be segmented based on the changes in the temperature and not using a uniform segmentation method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.587-602
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• 2016

In structural reliability analysis, the response surface method is widely adopted because of its numerical efficiency. It should be understood that the response function must approximate the actual limit state function accurately in the main region influencing failure probability where it is evaluated. However, the size of main region influencing failure probability was not defined clearly in current response surface methods. In this study, the concept of sub-region of interest is constructed, and an improved response surface method is proposed based on the sub-region of interest. The sub-region of interest can clearly define the size of main region influencing failure probability, so that the accuracy of the evaluation of failure probability is increased. Some examples are introduced to demonstrate the efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed method for both numerical and implicit limit state functions.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.37-46
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• 2004

Coil spring of automobile suspension system is very important to safety and dynamics of passenger car and requires a highly advanced quality control during manufacturing processes. Surface cracks on the coil spring rod produced by mechanical machining and heat treatment may cause a severe accident and large cost to the manufacturer. In order to detect surface cracks of the rod, guided wave technique is applied for a fast total volumetric inspection. Pochhammer equation is studied to investigate the dispersion characteristics of the guided wave in the spring rod and optimal wave modes sensitive to the surface crack are selected experimentally to design the experimental arrangement for the generation of guided wave. Rod samples with different size of artificial axial EDM notch on the surface ranging from 50${\mu}{\textrm}{m}$ to 1 mm are examined by guided wave and inspection results discussed.