• Atmosphere
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.235-249
• /
• 2017

This paper describes methodology verifying near-surface predictability of numerical weather prediction models against the surface synoptic weather station network (SYNOP) observation. As verification variables, temperature, wind, humidity-related variables, total cloud cover, and surface pressure are included in this tool. Quality controlled SYNOP observation through the pre-processing for data assimilation is used. To consider the difference of topographic height between observation and model grid points, vertical inter/extrapolation is applied for temperature, humidity, and surface pressure verification. This verification algorithm is applied for verifying medium-range forecasts by a global forecasting model developed by Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems to measure the near-surface predictability of the model and to evaluate the capability of the developed verification tool. It is found that the verification of near-surface prediction against SYNOP observation shows consistency with verification of upper atmosphere against global radiosonde observation, suggesting reliability of those data and demonstrating importance of verification against in-situ measurement as well. Although verifying modeled total cloud cover with observation might have limitation due to the different definition between the model and observation, it is also capable to diagnose the relative bias of model predictability such as a regional reliability and diurnal evolution of the bias.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.153-162
• /
• 2018

The statistical prediction model for wintertime surface air temperature, that is based on snow cover extent and Arctic sea ice concentration, is updated by considering $El-Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). These additional factors, representing leading modes of interannual variability in the troposphere and stratosphere, enhance the seasonal prediction over the Northern Hemispheric surface air temperature, even though their impacts are dependent on the predicted month and region. In particular, the prediction of Korean surface air temperature in midwinter is substantially improved. In December, ENSO improved about 10% of prediction skill compared without it. In January, ENSO and QBO jointly helped to enhance prediction skill up to 36%. These results suggest that wintertime surface air temperature in Korea can be better predicted by considering not only high-latitude surface conditions (i.e., Eurasian snow cover extent and Arctic sea ice concentration) but also equatorial sea surface temperature and stratospheric circulation.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.162-167
• /
• 2017

The tensile surface residual stress in the multi-pass drawn wire deteriorates the mechanical properties of the wire. Therefore, the evaluation of the residual stress is very important. Especially, the axial residual stress on the wire surface is the highest. Therefore, the objective of this study was to propose an axial surface residual stress prediction model of the multi-pass drawn steel wire. In order to achieve this objective, an elastoplastic finite element (FE) analysis was carried out to investigate the effect of semi-die angle and reduction ratio of the axial surface residual stress. By using the results of the FE analysis, a surface residual stress prediction model was proposed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the prediction model, the predicted residual stress was compared to that of a wire drawing experiment.

• Design & Manufacturing
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.1-7
• /
• 2023

In the fabrication of curved multi-display glass for automotive use, the surface roughness of the mold is a critical quality factor. However, the difficulty in detecting micro-cutting signals in a micro-machining environment and the absence of a standardized model for predicting micro-cutting forces make it challenging to intuitively infer the correlation between cutting variables and actual surface roughness under machining conditions. Consequently, current practices heavily rely on machining condition optimization through the utilization of cutting models and experimental research for force prediction. To overcome these limitations, this study employs a surface roughness prediction formula instead of a cutting force prediction model and converts the surface roughness prediction formula into experimental data. Additionally, to account for changes in surface roughness during machining runtime, the theory of position variables has been introduced. By leveraging artificial neural network technology, the accuracy of the surface roughness prediction formula model has improved by 98%. Through the application of artificial neural network technology, the surface roughness prediction formula model, with enhanced accuracy, is anticipated to reliably perform the derivation of optimal machining conditions and the prediction of surface roughness in various machining environments at the analytical stage.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
• /
• v.16 no.8
• /
• pp.1536-1544
• /
• 1992

A relatively simple prediction method is proposed for initially semicircular surface crack growth under axial loading. The method takes into account the difference in surface crack closure behavior at the depth point and at the surface intersection point, and also the relationship of crack closure for surface crack and through-thickness crack. The prediction method provides conservative estimation for fatigue life within factor of two, and the predicted crack geometry variations agree well with the observed results. As a result, the prediction method proposed here is considered to be useful for engineering application.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.9 no.1
• /
• pp.25-37
• /
• 2015

To predict the surface subsidence of salt rock storage, a new surface subsidence basin model is proposed based on the Logistic function from the phenomenological perspective. Analysis shows that the subsidence curve on the main section of the model is S-shaped, similar to that of the actual surface subsidence basin; the control parameter of the subsidence curve shape can be changed to allow for flexible adjustment of the curve shape. By using this model in combination with the MMF time function that reflects the single point subsidence-time relationship of the surface, a new dynamic prediction model of full section surface subsidence for salt rock storage is established, and the numerical simulation calculation results are used to verify the availability of the new model. The prediction results agree well with the numerical simulation results, and the model reflects the continued development of surface subsidence basin over time, which is expected to provide some insight into the prediction and visualization research on surface subsidence of salt rock storage.

• Journal of the korean Society of Automotive Engineers
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.65-75
• /
• 1992

An analytical scheme for predicting the crack aspect pattern of materials which contain twin surface cracks was developed. Fatigue tests were performed on twin surface cracked PMMA plate specimens to obtain the interaction factor accounting for the interference effect of adjacent cracks. Here, the interaction factor is defined as the ratio of the stress intensity factor for twin surface cracks to that for a single surface crack. From the analysis of the fatigue test result, the interaction factor was presented as the ninth-order polynomial expression having a function of dimensionless crack spacing ratio. Then the polynomial expression was incorporated into the prediction program of the crack aspect pattern for twin surface cracked materials. And, the interaction effect and the coalescence condition of adjacent cracks were simplified in the newly developed prediction scheme of the crack aspect pattern. The predicted crack growth pattern using the prediction scheme was compared with test data from PMMA specimen. The predicted pattern agreed well with the test data.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
• /
• 2006.05a
• /
• pp.15-16
• /
• 2006

In-process surface roughness prediction is studied in this research. To implement in-process prediction, spindle displacement is introduced. Machined surface's roughness is assumed to be expressed in terms of spindle displacement. In-process measurement of spindle displacement is conducted using CCDS (cylindrical capacitive displacement sensor). Two prediction models are developed. One is simple linear model between measured surface roughness and values by spindle displacement. The other is multiple regression model including machining parameters like spindle speed, fee rate and radial depth of cut. Relation between machined surface roughness and roughness by spindle displacement are verified.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2015.05a
• /
• pp.281-281
• /
• 2015

Shallow landslide often occurs in areas of this topography where subsurface soil water flow paths give rise to excess pore-water pressures downslope. Recent hillslope hydrology studies have shown that subsurface topography has a strong impact in controlling the connectivity of saturated areas at the soil-bedrock interface. In this study, the physically based SHALSTAB model was used to evaluate the effects of three soil thicknesses (i.e. average soil layer, soil thickness to weathered soil and soil thickness to bedrock soil layer) and subsurface flow reflecting three soil thicknesses on shallow landslide prediction accuracy. Three digital elevation models (DEMs; i.e. ground surface, weathered surface and bedrock surface) and three soil thicknesses (average soil thickness, soil thickness to weathered rock and soil thickness to bedrock) at a small hillslope site in Jinbu, Kangwon Prefecture, eastern part of the Korean Peninsula, were considered. Each prediction result simulated with the SHALSTAB model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for modelling accuracy. The results of the ROC analysis for shallow landslide prediction using the ground surface DEM (GSTO), the weathered surface DEM and the bedrock surface DEM (BSTO) indicated that the prediction accuracy was higher using flow accumulation by the BSTO and weathered soil thickness compared to results. These results imply that 1) the effect of subsurface flow by BSTO on shallow landslide prediction especially could be larger than the effects of topography by GSTO, and 2) the effect of weathered soil thickness could be larger than the effects of average soil thickness and bedrock soil thickness on shallow landslide prediction. Therefore, we suggest that using BSTO dem and weathered soil layer can improve the accuracy of shallow landslide prediction, which should contribute to more accurately predicting shallow landslides.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.85-99
• /
• 2024

Ocean surface currents have an essential role in the Earth's climate system and significantly impact the marine ecosystem, weather patterns, and human activities. However, predicting ocean surface currents remains challenging due to the complexity and variability of the oceanic processes involved. This review article provides an overview of the current research status, challenges, and opportunities in the prediction of ocean surface currents. We discuss the various observational and modelling approaches used to study ocean surface currents, including satellite remote sensing, in situ measurements, and numerical models. We also highlight the major challenges facing the prediction of ocean surface currents, such as data assimilation, model-observation integration, and the representation of sub-grid scale processes. In this article, we suggest that future research should focus on developing advanced modeling techniques, such as machine learning, and the integration of multiple observational platforms to improve the accuracy and skill of ocean surface current predictions. We also emphasize the need to address the limitations of observing instruments, such as delays in receiving data, versioning errors, missing data, and undocumented data processing techniques. Improving data availability and quality will be essential for enhancing the accuracy of predictions. The future research should focus on developing methods for effective bias correction, a series of data preprocessing procedures, and utilizing combined models and xAI models to incorporate data from various sources. Advancements in predicting ocean surface currents will benefit various applications such as maritime operations, climate studies, and ecosystem management.