• Title/Summary/Keyword: Success and Failure Prediction

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A Basic Study on Sale Price Prediction Model of Apartment Building Projects using Machine Learning Technique (머신러닝 기반 공동주택 분양가 예측모델 개발 기초연구)

  • Son, Seung-Hyun;Kim, Ji-Myong;Han, Bum-Jin;Na, Young-Ju;Kim, Tae-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2021.05a
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    • pp.151-152
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    • 2021
  • The sale price of apartment buildings is a key factor in the success or failure of apartment projects, and the factors that affect the sale price of apartments vary widely, including location, environmental factors, and economic conditions. Existing methods of predicting the sale price do not reflect the nonlinear characteristics of apartment prices, which are determined by the complex impact factors of reality, because statistical analysis is conducted under the assumption of a linear model. To improve these problems, a new analysis technique is needed to predict apartment sales prices by complex nonlinear influencing factors. Using machine learning techniques that have recently attracted attention in the field of engineering, it is possible to predict the sale price reflecting the complexity of various factors. Therefore, this study aims to conduct a basic study for the development of a machine learning-based prediction model for apartment sale prices.

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Exploring the Predictive Factors of Passing the Korean Physical Therapist Licensing Examination (한국 물리치료사 국가 면허시험 합격 여부의 예측요인 탐색)

  • Kim, So-Hyun;Cho, Sung-Hyoun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2022
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to establish a model of the predictive factors for success or failure of examinees undertaking the Korean physical therapist licensing examination (KPTLE). Additionally, we assessed the pass/fail cut-off point. Methods : We analyzed the results of 10,881 examinees who undertook the KPTLE, using data provided by the Korea Health Personnel Licensing Examination Institute. The target variable was the test result (pass or fail), and the input variables were: sex, age, test subject, and total score. Frequency analysis, chi-square test, descriptive statistics, independent t-test, correlation analysis, binary logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed on the data. Results : Sex and age were not significant predictors of attaining a pass (p>.05). The test subjects with the highest probability of passing were, in order, medical regulation (MR) (Odds ratio (OR)=2.91, p<.001), foundations of physical therapy (FPT) (OR=2.86, p<.001), diagnosis and evaluation for physical therapy (DEPT) (OR=2.74, p<.001), physical therapy intervention (PTI) (OR=2.66, p<.001), and practical examination (PE) (OR=1.24, p<.001). The cut-off points for each subject were: FPT, 32.50; DEPT, 29.50; PTI, 44.50; MR, 14.50; and PE, 50.50. The total score (TS) was 164.50. The sensitivity, specificity, and the classification accuracy of the prediction model was 99 %, 98 %, and 99 %, respectively, indicating high accuracy. Area under the curve (AUC) values for each subject were: FPT, .958; DEPT, .968; PTI, .984; MR, .885; PE, .962; and TS, .998, indicating a high degree of fit. Conclusion : In our study, the predictive factors for passing KPTLE were identified, and the optimal cut-off point was calculated for each subject. Logistic regression was adequate to explain the predictive model. These results will provide universities and examinees with useful information for predicting their success or failure in the KPTLE.

Air Pressure Enema Reduction in Infant and Childhood Intussusception (장중첩증 환아의 공기압 정복)

  • Jun, Si-Youl
    • Advances in pediatric surgery
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.126-132
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    • 1997
  • Reduction of intussusception using air or oxygen has wide acceptance as an alternative to conventional hydrostatic reduction. This study was undertaken to evaluate the results and complications of air pressure enema in 948 pediatric intussusception. One hundred and twenty nine cases were operated on at the Department of Surgery, Masan Samsung Hospital from 1985 to 1996 because of air reduction failure. The success rate was 86.4 %. Twenty-one patients(2.2 %) showed perforation during air reduction. Risk prone factors of perforation were; age less than 3 months(42.9 % vs 11.1 %), duration of symptoms greater than 48 hours (66.7 % vs 33.3 %), and presence of pathologic leading point(28.6 % vs 3.7 %). Vomitting and spontaneous rectal bleeding revealed higher prediction to the complication. In nineteen cases, bowel infarction, coagulated necrosis and hemorrhage suggested that the cause of perforation was due to the preexisting strangulation. In conclusion, when doing an air pressure enema reduction, care must be taken if the patient is of a young age or the symptoms are of long duration.

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Machine Learning Based Neighbor Path Selection Model in a Communication Network

  • Lee, Yong-Jin
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.56-61
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    • 2021
  • Neighbor path selection is to pre-select alternate routes in case geographically correlated failures occur simultaneously on the communication network. Conventional heuristic-based algorithms no longer improve solutions because they cannot sufficiently utilize historical failure information. We present a novel solution model for neighbor path selection by using machine learning technique. Our proposed machine learning neighbor path selection (ML-NPS) model is composed of five modules- random graph generation, data set creation, machine learning modeling, neighbor path prediction, and path information acquisition. It is implemented by Python with Keras on Tensorflow and executed on the tiny computer, Raspberry PI 4B. Performance evaluations via numerical simulation show that the neighbor path communication success probability of our model is better than that of the conventional heuristic by 26% on the average.

Analysis of ROX Index, ROX-HR Index, and SpO2/FIO2 Ratio in Patients Who Received High-Flow Nasal Cannula Oxygen Therapy in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (고유량 비강 캐뉼라 산소요법을 받은 소아중환자실 환아의 ROX Index와 ROX-HR Index 및 SpO2/FIO2 Ratio분석)

  • Choi, Sun Hee;Kim, Dong Yeon;Song, Byung Yun;Yoo, Yang Sook
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.468-479
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the use of the respiratory rate oxygenation (ROX) index, ROX-heart rate (ROX-HR) index, and saturation of percutaneous oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio (SF ratio) to predict weaning from high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) in patients with respiratory distress in a pediatric intensive care unit. Methods: A total of 107 children admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit were enrolled in the study between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2021. Data on clinical and personal information, ROX index, ROX-HR index, and SF ratio were collected from nursing records. The data were analyzed using an independent t-test, χ2 test, Mann-Whitney U test, and area under the curve (AUC). Results: Seventy-five (70.1%) patients were successfully weaned from HFNC, while 32 (29.9%) failed. Considering specificity and sensitivity, the optimal cut off points for predicting treatment success and failure of HFNC oxygen therapy were 6.88 and 10.16 (ROX index), 5.23 and 8.61 (ROX-HR index), and 198.75 and 353.15 (SF ratio), respectively. The measurement of time showed that the most significant AUC was 1 hour before HFNC interruption. Conclusion: The ROX index, ROX-HR index, and SF ratio appear to be promising tools for the early prediction of treatment success or failure in patients initiated on HFNC for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. Nurses caring for critically ill pediatric patients should closely observe and periodically check their breathing patterns. It is important to continuously monitor three indexes to ensure that ventilation assistance therapy is started at the right time.

The Value of Ultrasonographic Endometrial Measurement in the Prediction of Pregnancy Outcome in In Vitro Fertilization (체외수정시술 주기에서 자궁내막발달과 착상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Haeng
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.117-123
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    • 1993
  • The condition of the endometrium is an important factor which may influence the success or failure in IVF-ET. This study was undertaken for evaluation of the value of endometrial growth as an early predictor for the success of IVF. Ultrasonographic endometrial measurement were performed in 43 IVF cycles that conceived, 101 cycles that did not with an IVF-ET There was no significant difference in the endometrial thickness and the serum concentration of estradiol in the pregnant versus nonpregnant group(10.4 vs. 9.9 mm: 2348 vs. 2017 pg/ml no hCG administration day). No correlation was found between the ultrasound image and serum estradiol levels around the time of hCG administration(r=0.54, p=0.13 no Day 2; r=0.45, p=0.14 no Day 1). The duration of gonadotropin treatment, number of follicles, number of oocytes retrieved, and fertilization rate were not statistically different in the two groups, however, there was a significant difference in the number of embryos in the pregnant versus nonpregnant group)p< 0.05). A higher pregnancy rate and ongoing pregnancy rate occured with an endometrial thickness over 11 mm compared with below 7mm(p< 0.05, p< 0.005). however, no significant differences were noted in the implantation rate and abortion rate among the groups that classified according to their endmetrial thickness. The endometrial growth(${\Delta}$) from hCG administration day(DO) to D6 was greater in the women who achieved pregnancy than in the nonpregnant group(p< 0.01). There were no significant differences in serum estradiol levels, implantation rate, pregnancy rate, and abortion rate among the groups that classified according to the pattern of echogenesity of endometrium, however, significantly higher ongoing pregnancy rate was noted in group A, B compared with group C.(p< 0.0001, p< 0.001) These results suggest that there were no ultrasonographically detectable differences in the patterns of endometrial growth and development around the time of hCG administration in patients who conceive versus those that do not in IVF-ET.

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Advanced In-Vessel Retention Design for Next Generation Risk Management

  • Kune Y. Suh;Hwang, Il-Soon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.713-718
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    • 1997
  • In the TMI-2 accident, approximately twenty(20) tons of molten core material drained into the lower plenum. Early advanced light water reactor (LWR) designs assumed a lower head failure and incorporated various measures for ex-vessel accident mitigation. However, one of the major findings from the TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project was that one part of the reactor lower head wall estimated to have attained a temperature of 1100$^{\circ}C$ for about 30 minutes has seemingly experienced a comparatively rapid cooldown with no major threat to the vessel integrity. In this regard, recent empirical and analytical studies have shifted interests to such in-vessel retention designs or strategies as reactor cavity flooding, in-vessel flooding and engineered gap cooling of the vessel Accurate thermohydrodynamic and creep deformation modeling and rupture prediction are the key to the success in developing practically useful in-vessel accident/risk management strategies. As an advanced in-vessel design concept, this work presents the COrium Attack Syndrome Immunization Structures (COASIS) that are being developed as prospective in-vessel retention devices for a next-generation LWR in concert with existing ex-vessel management measures. Both the engineered gap structures in-vessel (COASISI) and ex-vessel (COASISO) are demonstrated to maintain effective heat transfer geometry during molten core debris attack when applied to the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant(KSNPP) reactor. The likelihood of lower head creep rupture during a severe accident is found to be significantly suppressed by the COASIS options.

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Catch Predictions for Pacific Anchovy Engraulis japonicus Larvae in the Yellow Sea

  • Kwon, Dae-Hyeon;Hwang, Sun-Do;Lim, Donghyun
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2012
  • To predict catches of Pacific anchovy Engraulis japonicus larvae, anchovy eggs were collected in the coastal waters off Gunsan, Korea, in the Yellow Sea during the main spawning season (June to July) from 2003 to 2009. A ring net was repeatedly towed vertically at 10 stations during the daytime to sample eggs. Catch data estimated by auction sales were obtained from the Fisheries Cooperatives Union of Gunsan City and daily water temperature data in the outer harbor of Gunsan City during the survey periods were obtained from the National Oceanographic Research Institute. A significant relationship was found between anchovy egg density from June to July and larval catch from July to October in the same year. Catch of anchovy larvae in Gunsan were also high when optimal growth temperatures were recorded in the coastal waters off Gunsan in July. Although the recruitment success or failure of anchovy larvae can be predicted from variability in egg density, we suggest that mean daily water temperature is a more efficient indicator for predicting variability in catches of larval anchovy in the Yellow Sea.

On the Relationship between Evaluation Indexes and Firms' Performance: An Empirical Study on Venture Firms in Korea (중소벤처기업성과와 국내 지원기관들의 평가지표간의 상관관계에 관한 실증연구)

  • Choi, Jong-Yeon;Yang, Dong-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.812-841
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    • 2006
  • Previous studies have shown that the ex-ante financial ratios, mainly used by financial institutions for loan evaluation purpose, are related to the ex-post finn's performance of venture firm's. The main objective of this study is to examine whether non-financial variables such as 'technology', 'marketability', and 'other business indexes' have extra explanatory power in forecasting the ex-post firm's performance of small and medium size venture firm's in Korea. The implications and results of this study are expected to be useful in loan evaluation, investment decision and internal management decisions of venture firms. Among small and medium sized manufacturing firms funded in the year of 1999 through 2005, 416 firms are selected for our analysis. The relationship between evaluation indexes and firm's success/failure is investigated using binary logistic regression analysis and factor analysis with an aid of SPSS program. The summarized results are as follows. First, current evaluation model, used for loan evaluation purpose for small and medium size manufacturing firms show the same discriminatory power as previous prediction model. Second, among the tested additional variables, significant indices are 'technological capability of CEO', 'managerial capability of CEO', and 'business feasibility'. Third, while previous studies on evaluation structure had 3 factors, this study showed that valuation's structure has 6 factors.

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Differences in Ability to Predict the Success of Motor Action According to Dance Expertise - Focusing on Pirouette En Dehors (무용 숙련성에 따른 동작결과예측 능력의 차이: 삐루엣 앙 디올 동작을 중심으로)

  • Han, Siwan;Ryu, Je-Kwang;Yi, Woojong;Yang, Jonghyun
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.121-135
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    • 2018
  • Dancers' motions are perceived by observers through visual processes with visual information forming the basis for the observers' appreciation and evaluation of the dancers' motions. There have been many discussions as to whether or not observers' personal athletic capabilities form an essential basis for accurate assessment of the motions of others but, so far, no valid conclusions have been reached. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the ability to predict motions of others varies depending on the athletic expertise of the observers. Participants of this research were ballet dancers of varying athletic expertise. Twenty seven participants were divided into three groups with nine in each: beginners, intermediate experts and experts. The participants watched the same dance video and then evaluated whether the motion would be successful or not. The movement related visual information required to evaluate the success of the motion was systematically adjusted by controlling the length of the video. Using the temporal occlusion method, this study measured the response accuracy of the participants by category of expertise. Under the circumstance with insufficient visual information to utilize, the experts showed higher rates of correct response than the intermediate experts and the beginners. The beginners showed higher rates of wrong response than the experts and the intermediate experts. These results showed that the ability to predict success or failure of a dance motion varied depending on motion expertise of the observers, although they had similar level of expertise in perception. Participants considered to have high athletic expertise showed high prediction ability on the result of the motion. In addition, high expertise in perception reduced the likelihood that participants would make hasty responses under the circumstance with insufficient information and helped to reduce wrong response rate. In conclusion, this study showed that motor expertise and perceptual expertise contribute to prediction accuracy of observed motions.