• Title/Summary/Keyword: Subsurface prediction

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Effect of subsurface flow and soil depth on shallow landslide prediction

  • Kim, Minseok;Jung, Kwansue;Son, Minwoo;Jeong, Anchul
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.281-281
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    • 2015
  • Shallow landslide often occurs in areas of this topography where subsurface soil water flow paths give rise to excess pore-water pressures downslope. Recent hillslope hydrology studies have shown that subsurface topography has a strong impact in controlling the connectivity of saturated areas at the soil-bedrock interface. In this study, the physically based SHALSTAB model was used to evaluate the effects of three soil thicknesses (i.e. average soil layer, soil thickness to weathered soil and soil thickness to bedrock soil layer) and subsurface flow reflecting three soil thicknesses on shallow landslide prediction accuracy. Three digital elevation models (DEMs; i.e. ground surface, weathered surface and bedrock surface) and three soil thicknesses (average soil thickness, soil thickness to weathered rock and soil thickness to bedrock) at a small hillslope site in Jinbu, Kangwon Prefecture, eastern part of the Korean Peninsula, were considered. Each prediction result simulated with the SHALSTAB model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for modelling accuracy. The results of the ROC analysis for shallow landslide prediction using the ground surface DEM (GSTO), the weathered surface DEM and the bedrock surface DEM (BSTO) indicated that the prediction accuracy was higher using flow accumulation by the BSTO and weathered soil thickness compared to results. These results imply that 1) the effect of subsurface flow by BSTO on shallow landslide prediction especially could be larger than the effects of topography by GSTO, and 2) the effect of weathered soil thickness could be larger than the effects of average soil thickness and bedrock soil thickness on shallow landslide prediction. Therefore, we suggest that using BSTO dem and weathered soil layer can improve the accuracy of shallow landslide prediction, which should contribute to more accurately predicting shallow landslides.

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Three-dimensional geostatistical modeling of subsurface stratification and SPT-N Value at dam site in South Korea

  • Mingi Kim;Choong-Ki Chung;Joung-Woo Han;Han-Saem Kim
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2023
  • The 3D geospatial modeling of geotechnical information can aid in understanding the geotechnical characteristic values of the continuous subsurface at construction sites. In this study, a geostatistical optimization model for the three-dimensional (3D) mapping of subsurface stratification and the SPT-N value based on a trial-and-error rule was developed and applied to a dam emergency spillway site in South Korea. Geospatial database development for a geotechnical investigation, reconstitution of the target grid volume, and detection of outliers in the borehole dataset were implemented prior to the 3D modeling. For the site-specific subsurface stratification of the engineering geo-layer, we developed an integration method for the borehole and geophysical survey datasets based on the geostatistical optimization procedure of ordinary kriging and sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) by comparing their cross-validation-based prediction residuals. We also developed an optimization technique based on SGS for estimating the 3D geometry of the SPT-N value. This method involves quantitatively testing the reliability of SGS and selecting the realizations with a high estimation accuracy. Boring tests were performed for validation, and the proposed method yielded more accurate prediction results and reproduced the spatial distribution of geotechnical information more effectively than the conventional geostatistical approach.

철도차륜의 구름접촉피로에 의한 수명예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Life Span Prediction of Railroad Wheels caused by Rolling Contact Fatigue)

  • 전종균;양진승;박삼진;이규세;마양수
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제7권6호
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    • pp.1012-1020
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    • 2006
  • 철도차량의 차륜에서 발생하는 크랙은 표면으로부터 개시하는 표면크랙, 내부에서 개시하는 내부크랙으로 나눌 수 있고, 이들 크랙은 철도의 안전운행에 위험요소가 된다. 그러므로 이들 크랙의 성장수명 판단은 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 철도차륜의 표면크랙 및 내부크랙의 응력분포상태, 변위 및 성장수명을 연구하였다. 특히 내부 및 표면크랙에 대해 유한요소해석을 실시하여 크랙선단의 응력상태, 변위, 응력확대계수를 찾아내었고, 이를 바탕으로 Paris 공식을 사용하여 성장수명을 예측하였다.

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히스토리매칭 기법을 이용한 비모수 지구통계 모사 예측성능 향상 예비연구 (A Preliminary Study of Enhanced Predictability of Non-Parametric Geostatistical Simulation through History Matching Technique)

  • 정진아;프라딥 포디얄;박은규
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제17권5호
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    • pp.56-67
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    • 2012
  • In the present study, an enhanced subsurface prediction algorithm based on a non-parametric geostatistical model and a history matching technique through Gibbs sampler is developed and the iterative prediction improvement procedure is proposed. The developed model is applied to a simple two-dimensional synthetic case where domain is composed of three different hydrogeologic media with $500m{\times}40m$ scale. In the application, it is assumed that there are 4 independent pumping tests performed at different vertical interval and the history curves are acquired through numerical modeling. With two hypothetical borehole information and pumping test data, the proposed prediction model is applied iteratively and continuous improvements of the predictions with reduced uncertainties of the media distribution are observed. From the results and the qualitative/quantitative analysis, it is concluded that the proposed model is good for the subsurface prediction improvements where the history data is available as a supportive information. Once the proposed model be a matured technique, it is believed that the model can be applied to many groundwater, geothermal, gas and oil problems with conventional fluid flow simulators. However, the overall development is still in its preliminary step and further considerations needs to be incorporated to be a viable and practical prediction technique including multi-dimensional verifications, global optimization, etc. which have not been resolved in the present study.

Predicting the Impact of Subsurface heterogeneous Hydraulic Conductivity on the Stochastic Behavior of Well Draw down in a Confined Aquifer Using Artificial Neural Networks

  • Abdin Alaa El-Din;Abdeen Mostafa A. M.
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • 제19권8호
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    • pp.1582-1596
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    • 2005
  • Groundwater flow and behavior have to be investigated based on heterogeneous subsurface formation since the homogeneity assumption of this formation is not valid. Over the past twenty years, stochastic approach and Monte Carlo technique have been utilized very efficiently to understand the groundwater flow behavior. However, these techniques require lots of computational and numerical efforts according to the various researchers' comments. Therefore, utilizing new techniques with much less computational efforts such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in the prediction of the stochastic behavior for the groundwater based on heterogeneous subsurface formation is highly appreciated. The current paper introduces the ANN technique to investigate and predict the stochastic behavior of a well draw down in a confined aquifer based on subsurface heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity. Several ANN models are developed in this research to predict the unsteady two dimensional well draw down and its stochastic characteristics in a confined aquifer. The results of this study showed that ANN method with less computational efforts was very efficiently capable of simulating and predicting the stochastic behavior of the well draw down resulted from the continuous constant pumping in the middle of a confined aquifer with subsurface heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity.

비균질재료의 3차원 균열에 대한 응력확대계수 해석 (Stress Intensity factor Analysis for Three-Dimensional Cracks in Inhomogeneous Materials)

  • 김준수;이준성
    • 한국정밀공학회지
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.197-203
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    • 2003
  • Accurate stress intensity factor analyses and crack growth rate of surface -cracked components in inhomogeneous materials are needed fur reliable prediction of their fatigue life and fracture strengths. This paper describes an automated stress intensity factor analysis of three-dimensional (3D) cracks in inhomogeneous materials. 3D finite element method (FEM) was used to obtain the stress intensity factor fur subsurface cracks and surface cracks existing in inhomogeneous materials. To examine accuracy and efficiency of the present system, the stress intensity factor for a semi-elliptical surface crack in a plate subjected to uniform tension is calculated, and compared with Raju-Newman's solutions. Then the system is applied to analyze cladding effect of subsurface cracks in inhomogeneous materials. The results were compared with those surface cracks in homogeneous materials. It is clearly demonstrated from these analyses that the stress intensity factors for subsurface cracks are less than those of surface cracks. Also, this system is applied to analyze cladding effect of surface cracks in inhomogeneous materials.

비균질재료의 표면균열에 대한 응력확대계수 해석 (Stress Intensity Factor Analysis for Surface Crack in Inhomogeneous Materials)

  • 김준수;이준성
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2002년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.816-819
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    • 2002
  • Accurate stress intensity factor analyses and crack growth rate of surface-cracked components in inhomogeneous materials are needed for reliable prediction of their fatigue lift and fracture strengths. This paper describes an automated system for analyzing the stress intensity factors of three-dimensional (3D) cracks in inhomogeneous materials. 3D finite element method (FEM) was used to obtain the stress intensity factor for subsurface cracks and surface cracks existing in inhomogeneous materials. To examine accuracy and efficiency of the present system, the stress intensity factor for a semi-elliptical surface crack in a plate subjected to uniform tension is calculated, and compared with Raju-Newman's solutions. Then the system is applied to analyze cladding effect of subsurface cracks in inhomogeneous materials. The results were compared with those surface cracks in homogeneous materials. It is clearly demonstrated from these analyses that the stress intensity factors for subsurface cracks are less than those of surface cracks.

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대규모 육지수문모형에서 사용 가능한 지표면 및 지표하 연계 물흐름 모형의 개발: I. 모형설명 (Development of a Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Flow Model for Use in Land Surface Models at a Large Scale: Part I. Model Description)

  • 최현일
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.59-63
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    • 2008
  • 지표수 흐름은 육지 물수지 계산에 중요한 요소중에 하나이다. 그러나, 기상변화의 예측과 그로 인한 방재대책수립을 위한 대규모의 기상모형과 연계되는 육지수문모형(Land Surface Model, LSM)들은 지표수 흐름을 토양수분수지로부터 간단하게 산정하고 있다. 침투계산에서 지표수 흐름깊이를 무시하는 것은 지표면 및 지표하 물흐름 모두에 계산상 오류를 초래할 수 있다. 그러므로, 육지수문모형에서 종합적인 물과 에너지 순환 예측을 하기 위해, 지표수 흐름을 위한 1차원 확산모형과 지표하 물흐름을 위한 계산망 체적평균 토양수분이송(Volume Averaged Soil-moisture Transport Model, VAST)모형을 연계하는 대규모 지표면 및 지표하 연계 물흐름 모형이 개발되었다. 이 논문에서는, 최첨단 육지수문모형중 하나인 CLM(Common Land Model)내의 지표수리수문 모의를 위한 주요부분을 비롯하여, 지형특성에 따른 지표수 흐름과 공간적 토양수분 분포의 예측개선을 위한 새로운 지표면 및 지표하 연계 물흐름 모형에 대해 기술하였다.

스퍼기어의 피팅 수명 예측 및 실험 (Experiments and Prediction of Pitting Life in Spur Gears)

  • 김종성;주진욱;이상돈;조용주
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.399-403
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this paper is to predict pitting initiation by using a contact analysis and subsurface stress. Contact stresses are obtained by contact analysis of a semi-infinite solid based on the use of influence functions. Subsurface stress field is obtained using rectangular patch solutions. It is used Mesoscopic multiaxial fatigue criterion to predict contact fatigue life. It is important to predict pitting initiation to enhance reliability of the mechanical elements. Pitting life prediction in the spur gears which are fundamental mechanical element is presented in this paper.

고주기 피로 모델을 이용한 타원 접촉시 피로 수명에 관한 연구 (A Study on Fatigue Life under Elliptical Contact using High Cycle Fatigue Models)

  • 조용주;김태완;구영필
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.252-258
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    • 2004
  • In this study, using high cycle fatigue (HCF) criteria, the simulation of rolling contact fatigue is conducted under elliptical contact. The HCF criteria fall into three categories: the critical plane approach, the stress invariant approach and the approach based on the mesoscopic scale. The accurate calculation of contact stresses and subsurface stresses is essential to the prediction of crack initiation life. Contact stresses are obtained by contact analysis of a semi-infinite solid based on the use of influence functions and the subsurface stress field is obtained using rectangular patch solutions. The simulation results show that the critical load is decreasing rapidly and the site of crack initiation also moves rapidly to the surface from the subsurface when the friction coefficient exceeds a specific value for all of three fatigue criteria.