• Title/Summary/Keyword: Structure and Performance Analysis

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A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs (비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측 모델)

  • Won, Ha-Ram;Shim, Jae-Seung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2019
  • Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

Development of a complex failure prediction system using Hierarchical Attention Network (Hierarchical Attention Network를 이용한 복합 장애 발생 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Park, Youngchan;An, Sangjun;Kim, Mintae;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 2020
  • The data center is a physical environment facility for accommodating computer systems and related components, and is an essential foundation technology for next-generation core industries such as big data, smart factories, wearables, and smart homes. In particular, with the growth of cloud computing, the proportional expansion of the data center infrastructure is inevitable. Monitoring the health of these data center facilities is a way to maintain and manage the system and prevent failure. If a failure occurs in some elements of the facility, it may affect not only the relevant equipment but also other connected equipment, and may cause enormous damage. In particular, IT facilities are irregular due to interdependence and it is difficult to know the cause. In the previous study predicting failure in data center, failure was predicted by looking at a single server as a single state without assuming that the devices were mixed. Therefore, in this study, data center failures were classified into failures occurring inside the server (Outage A) and failures occurring outside the server (Outage B), and focused on analyzing complex failures occurring within the server. Server external failures include power, cooling, user errors, etc. Since such failures can be prevented in the early stages of data center facility construction, various solutions are being developed. On the other hand, the cause of the failure occurring in the server is difficult to determine, and adequate prevention has not yet been achieved. In particular, this is the reason why server failures do not occur singularly, cause other server failures, or receive something that causes failures from other servers. In other words, while the existing studies assumed that it was a single server that did not affect the servers and analyzed the failure, in this study, the failure occurred on the assumption that it had an effect between servers. In order to define the complex failure situation in the data center, failure history data for each equipment existing in the data center was used. There are four major failures considered in this study: Network Node Down, Server Down, Windows Activation Services Down, and Database Management System Service Down. The failures that occur for each device are sorted in chronological order, and when a failure occurs in a specific equipment, if a failure occurs in a specific equipment within 5 minutes from the time of occurrence, it is defined that the failure occurs simultaneously. After configuring the sequence for the devices that have failed at the same time, 5 devices that frequently occur simultaneously within the configured sequence were selected, and the case where the selected devices failed at the same time was confirmed through visualization. Since the server resource information collected for failure analysis is in units of time series and has flow, we used Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm that can predict the next state through the previous state. In addition, unlike a single server, the Hierarchical Attention Network deep learning model structure was used in consideration of the fact that the level of multiple failures for each server is different. This algorithm is a method of increasing the prediction accuracy by giving weight to the server as the impact on the failure increases. The study began with defining the type of failure and selecting the analysis target. In the first experiment, the same collected data was assumed as a single server state and a multiple server state, and compared and analyzed. The second experiment improved the prediction accuracy in the case of a complex server by optimizing each server threshold. In the first experiment, which assumed each of a single server and multiple servers, in the case of a single server, it was predicted that three of the five servers did not have a failure even though the actual failure occurred. However, assuming multiple servers, all five servers were predicted to have failed. As a result of the experiment, the hypothesis that there is an effect between servers is proven. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that the prediction performance was superior when the multiple servers were assumed than when the single server was assumed. In particular, applying the Hierarchical Attention Network algorithm, assuming that the effects of each server will be different, played a role in improving the analysis effect. In addition, by applying a different threshold for each server, the prediction accuracy could be improved. This study showed that failures that are difficult to determine the cause can be predicted through historical data, and a model that can predict failures occurring in servers in data centers is presented. It is expected that the occurrence of disability can be prevented in advance using the results of this study.

Ontology-based Course Mentoring System (온톨로지 기반의 수강지도 시스템)

  • Oh, Kyeong-Jin;Yoon, Ui-Nyoung;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.149-162
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    • 2014
  • Course guidance is a mentoring process which is performed before students register for coming classes. The course guidance plays a very important role to students in checking degree audits of students and mentoring classes which will be taken in coming semester. Also, it is intimately involved with a graduation assessment or a completion of ABEEK certification. Currently, course guidance is manually performed by some advisers at most of universities in Korea because they have no electronic systems for the course guidance. By the lack of the systems, the advisers should analyze each degree audit of students and curriculum information of their own departments. This process often causes the human error during the course guidance process due to the complexity of the process. The electronic system thus is essential to avoid the human error for the course guidance. If the relation data model-based system is applied to the mentoring process, then the problems in manual way can be solved. However, the relational data model-based systems have some limitations. Curriculums of a department and certification systems can be changed depending on a new policy of a university or surrounding environments. If the curriculums and the systems are changed, a scheme of the existing system should be changed in accordance with the variations. It is also not sufficient to provide semantic search due to the difficulty of extracting semantic relationships between subjects. In this paper, we model a course mentoring ontology based on the analysis of a curriculum of computer science department, a structure of degree audit, and ABEEK certification. Ontology-based course guidance system is also proposed to overcome the limitation of the existing methods and to provide the effectiveness of course mentoring process for both of advisors and students. In the proposed system, all data of the system consists of ontology instances. To create ontology instances, ontology population module is developed by using JENA framework which is for building semantic web and linked data applications. In the ontology population module, the mapping rules to connect parts of degree audit to certain parts of course mentoring ontology are designed. All ontology instances are generated based on degree audits of students who participate in course mentoring test. The generated instances are saved to JENA TDB as a triple repository after an inference process using JENA inference engine. A user interface for course guidance is implemented by using Java and JENA framework. Once a advisor or a student input student's information such as student name and student number at an information request form in user interface, the proposed system provides mentoring results based on a degree audit of current student and rules to check scores for each part of a curriculum such as special cultural subject, major subject, and MSC subject containing math and basic science. Recall and precision are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed system. The recall is used to check that the proposed system retrieves all relevant subjects. The precision is used to check whether the retrieved subjects are relevant to the mentoring results. An officer of computer science department attends the verification on the results derived from the proposed system. Experimental results using real data of the participating students show that the proposed course guidance system based on course mentoring ontology provides correct course mentoring results to students at all times. Advisors can also reduce their time cost to analyze a degree audit of corresponding student and to calculate each score for the each part. As a result, the proposed system based on ontology techniques solves the difficulty of mentoring methods in manual way and the proposed system derive correct mentoring results as human conduct.

A Study on the recognition and Attitude of Home Health Nursing System (가정간호사 제도에 대한 인식 및 태도 조사연구)

  • Lee Sung Ja
    • Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.132-146
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    • 1998
  • This Study was attempted to provide the basic data necessary in the development and introduction of Home Health Nursing System by investigating the recognition and attitude level of Home Health Nursing System. The data were collected by means of questionaires presented to 74 patients who had been admitted in C general hospital in Chon Ju, from June 30, 1997. As the tool for this study, the questionares developed by Kim Yong. Soon, et al (1990) and Han Bok Hee(1993) were modified and supplemented for the aim of this study. The computer was used for data analysis. The items about the charateristics of the subjects and the attitude to the management plan of Home Health Nursing System were represented as the frequency and percentage. The standard deviation and calculation average were produced on the items related to definition, recognition, necessity, expected effect of the attitude of Home Health Nursing System and the items related to admission. The ANOVA test was .used according to the characteristics of variables to analyze the necessity and difference of Home Health Nursing System. The results of this study were as follows 1) The general characteristics of the subjects were as follows ; for sex, man, $58.1\%$ ; for age, 50-59 years, $29.7\%$ ; for the level of education, high school, $51.4\%$ ; $79.7\%$ of them were married; for the family forms, small family, $73.0\%$ ; and $68.9\%$ of them take the monthly income over 100 million won. 2) The characteristics related to admissions of the subjects were as follows ; for clinic, surgical department, $78.4\%$ ; addmission not more then 7days, $47.3\%$ ; for the operation-performance $71.6\%$ of them were experienced; for the admission route, via outpatients clinic, $54.1\%$ ; for waiting period to the admission day, 1-2 days, $71.6\%$. 3) The difficulties comming from the hospitalization were related mostly to the factor that they felt hospital life more inconvenient than home.(3.66) The reasons for the difficulties in the admission which was due to insufficient beds in the hospital was related to the concentration to the general hospital because of 'The Whole National Medical Insurance System'(4.05). 4) On the previous informations about the Home Health Nursing System, those who have heard of only the name were 42 $(56.8\%)$, and on the recognition of it, they thought that it is periodic treatment by the licenced nurses for the recovering pateints after early discharge(3.73). On the attitude about the necessity of Home Health Nursing System, they thought that it is necessary because of the increasing trend of a psychological disease by the change of environment and complexity of the social structure(4.24). On the expected effect of Home Health Nursing System, they answered that it is convinient for the family of the patient to take care of them(4.l8). 5) On the attitude to the management plan of the Home Health Nursing System, those who had intention to participate in the system in the case of systemic support were 42(56.8). In the visiting time, 'visit periodically' and 'visit when the patient needs' were $28(37.8\%)$ respectively. For the application of medical insurance, if possoble, they will use $(91.9\%)$; for the method of payment for the treatment, 'pay by the time required' was $23(31.1\%)$, for the subject of management, 'National public institute must operate' was $33(44.6\%)$. 6) The relationship between the general characteristics of the subjects and the necessity of Home Health Nursing System showed the notable difference in the age (F=3.508, P<0.05) and marrage state (F=5.402, P<.023).

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A Study of Properties and Coating Natural Mineral Pumice Powder of in Korea (한국산 천연 광물 부석 파우더 코팅 및 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, In-Young;Noh, Ji-Min;Nam, Eun-Hee;Shin, Moon-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.498-506
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    • 2019
  • This study is based on a coating method that provides utilization value as a micronised powder for cosmetic raw materials using natural minerals buried in Bonghwa, Gyeongsangbuk-do in Korea. The mineral powder name is called Buseok, and chemical name is pumice powder. The results of a study on the efficacy of cosmetics are reported by the development of particulate powder to assess the performance of this powder. First of all, in order to coat the surface of this powder with oil, aluminum hydroxide was coated on the particulate surface and then coated with alkylsilan. In addition, it was coated with vegetable oil to prevent condensation of the powder and increase the dispersion in the oil phase. First; the particle size of pumice powder was from 10 to 50mm having porous holes on the surface of the particles. Second; The components of this powder contained $SiO_2$, $Al_2O_3$, $Fe_2O_3$, MgO, CaO, $K_2O_2$, $Na_2O$, $TiO_2$, $TiO_2$, MnO, $Cr_2O_3$, $V_2O_5$. Third: The particles of this powder have a planetary structure and are reddish-brown with porosity through SEM and TEM analysis. Fourth; the far-infrared radiation rate of this parabolic powder was $0.924{\mu}m$, and the radiative energy was $3.72{\times}102W/m^2$ and ${\mu}m$. In addition, the anion emission is 128 ION/cc, which shows that the coating remains unchanged. Based on these results, it is expected to be widely applied to basic cosmetics such as BB cream, cushion foundation, powderfect, and other color-coordinated cosmetics, sunblock cream, wash-off massage pack as an application of cosmetics. (Small and Medium Business Administration: S2601385)

A Polarization-based Frequency Scanning Interferometer and the Measurement Processing Acceleration based on Parallel Programing (편광 기반 주파수 스캐닝 간섭 시스템 및 병렬 프로그래밍 기반 측정 고속화)

  • Lee, Seung Hyun;Kim, Min Young
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.253-263
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    • 2013
  • Frequency Scanning Interferometry(FSI) system, one of the most promising optical surface measurement techniques, generally results in superior optical performance comparing with other 3-dimensional measuring methods as its hardware structure is fixed in operation and only the light frequency is scanned in a specific spectral band without vertical scanning of the target surface or the objective lens. FSI system collects a set of images of interference fringe by changing the frequency of light source. After that, it transforms intensity data of acquired image into frequency information, and calculates the height profile of target objects with the help of frequency analysis based on Fast Fourier Transform(FFT). However, it still suffers from optical noise on target surfaces and relatively long processing time due to the number of images acquired in frequency scanning phase. 1) a Polarization-based Frequency Scanning Interferometry(PFSI) is proposed for optical noise robustness. It consists of tunable laser for light source, ${\lambda}/4$ plate in front of reference mirror, ${\lambda}/4$ plate in front of target object, polarizing beam splitter, polarizer in front of image sensor, polarizer in front of the fiber coupled light source, ${\lambda}/2$ plate between PBS and polarizer of the light source. Using the proposed system, we can solve the problem of fringe image with low contrast by using polarization technique. Also, we can control light distribution of object beam and reference beam. 2) the signal processing acceleration method is proposed for PFSI, based on parallel processing architecture, which consists of parallel processing hardware and software such as Graphic Processing Unit(GPU) and Compute Unified Device Architecture(CUDA). As a result, the processing time reaches into tact time level of real-time processing. Finally, the proposed system is evaluated in terms of accuracy and processing speed through a series of experiment and the obtained results show the effectiveness of the proposed system and method.

Isolation, Quality Evaluation, and Seasonal Changes of Bakkenolide B in Petasites japonicus by HPLC (머위로부터 Bakkenolide B의 순수분리, HPLC분석 방법 및 채취 시기별 함량 분석)

  • Kim, Tae Hoon;Kim, Do Youn;Jung, Won Jung;Nagaiya, Ravichandran;Son, Beung Gu;Park, Young Hoon;Kang, Jum Soon;Lee, Young Jae;Im, Dong-Soon;Lee, Young-Geun;Choi, Yung Hyun;Choi, Young-Whan
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.252-259
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    • 2014
  • The leaves of Peatasites japonicus are a traditional oriental medicine with diverse biological activities. A simple and specific analytical method for the quantitative determination of bakkenolide B constituents from methanolic extract of the leaves of P. japonicus was developed. Bakkenolide B was isolated from the leaves of P. japonicus, and its structure was elucidated based on 1D, 2D NMR, and GC-MS spectral data. A liquid chromatographic method was developed to evaluate the quality of P. japonicus through determination of major active compound, bakkenolide B. The wavelengths at 254 and 215 nm were chosen to determine bakkenolide B. The recovery of the method was in the range of 98.6 to 103.1%, and bakkenolide B showed good linearity ($r^2$=0.999) within test ranges. The developed method was applied to the determination of bakkenolide B in the plant part and seasonal changes. The results showed that the content of bakkenolide B in the leaf was higher than in the petiole and rhizome. In this study, a simple, rapid, and reliable high-performance liquid chromatography method was used to determine the percentage and composition of bakkenolide B in P. japonicus procured from different Petasites species plants in South Korea. The method can be employed in routine quantitative analysis and quality control of different products in the market.

Synthesis and Lubricating Properties of Succinic Acid Alkyl Ester Derivatives (숙신산 알킬 에스테르 유도체의 합성 및 윤활특성)

  • Baek, Seung-Yeob;Kim, Young-Wun;Chung, Keun-Wo;Yoo, Seung-Hyun;Park, Su-Jin
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.196-202
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, a series of alkyl succinic acid esters for base oil were synthesized by condensation reaction of succinic anhydride and fatty alcohol. The structures of the synthesized esters were confirmed by $^1H-NMR$, FT-IR spectrum and GC analysis. Basic properties of esters such as kinematic viscosity (KV), refractive index (RI), total acid number (TAN) and pour points were measured and lubricating properties such as SRV wear scar diameter (SRV WSD), fraction coefficient (COF) and 4-ball wear (4-ball WSD) were also evaluated. As the results of basic properties, KV, RI and pour point of synthetic esters increased as the carbon chain of the esters increased. Measurement value of total acid number (TAN) was indicated between 0.2~4 mgKOH/g, and that metal working fluids and pressure working oils are acceptable to use as base oil. Also, lubricating properties of the esters showed as follows: 0.391~0.689 mm of SRV WSD, 0.110~0.138 of SRV COF and 0.49~0.55 mm of 4-ball WSD depended on the structure of the esters. In a comparison on the lubrication capacity of the SRV test based on polyester TMPTO, SRV WSD result showed that a better performance caused by the alkyl group. On the other hand, SRV COF test was not influenced of the alkyl group which the capacity of the lubricant was sightly diminished than the comparison material, regardless of the alkyl group.

Estimation of the Korean Yield Curve via Bayesian Variable Selection (베이지안 변수선택을 이용한 한국 수익률곡선 추정)

  • Koo, Byungsoo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.84-132
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    • 2020
  • A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.

Antecedents of Manufacturer's Private Label Program Engagement : A Focus on Strategic Market Management Perspective (제조업체 Private Labels 도입의 선행요인 : 전략적 시장관리 관점을 중심으로)

  • Lim, Chae-Un;Yi, Ho-Taek
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.65-86
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    • 2012
  • The $20^{th}$ century was the era of manufacturer brands which built higher brand equity for consumers. Consumers moved from generic products of inconsistent quality produced by local factories in the $19^{th}$ century to branded products from global manufacturers and manufacturer brands reached consumers through distributors and retailers. Retailers were relatively small compared to their largest suppliers. However, sometime in the 1970s, things began to slowly change as retailers started to develop their own national chains and began international expansion, and consolidation of the retail industry from mom-and-pop stores to global players was well under way (Kumar and Steenkamp 2007, p.2) In South Korea, since the middle of the 1990s, the bulking up of retailers that started then has changed the balance of power between manufacturers and retailers. Retailer private labels, generally referred to as own labels, store brands, distributors own private-label, home brand or own label brand have also been performing strongly in every single local market (Bushman 1993; De Wulf et al. 2005). Private labels now account for one out of every five items sold every day in U.S. supermarkets, drug chains, and mass merchandisers (Kumar and Steenkamp 2007), and the market share in Western Europe is even larger (Euromonitor 2007). In the UK, grocery market share of private labels grew from 39% of sales in 2008 to 41% in 2010 (Marian 2010). Planet Retail (2007, p.1) recently concluded that "[PLs] are set for accelerated growth, with the majority of the world's leading grocers increasing their own label penetration." Private labels have gained wide attention both in the academic literature and popular business press and there is a glowing academic research to the perspective of manufacturers and retailers. Empirical research on private labels has mainly studies the factors explaining private labels market shares across product categories and/or retail chains (Dahr and Hoch 1997; Hoch and Banerji, 1993), factors influencing the private labels proneness of consumers (Baltas and Doyle 1998; Burton et al. 1998; Richardson et al. 1996) and factors how to react brand manufacturers towards PLs (Dunne and Narasimhan 1999; Hoch 1996; Quelch and Harding 1996; Verhoef et al. 2000). Nevertheless, empirical research on factors influencing the production in terms of a manufacturer-retailer is rather anecdotal than theory-based. The objective of this paper is to bridge the gap in these two types of research and explore the factors which influence on manufacturer's private label production based on two competing theories: S-C-P (Structure - Conduct - Performance) paradigm and resource-based theory. In order to do so, the authors used in-depth interview with marketing managers, reviewed retail press and research and presents the conceptual framework that integrates the major determinants of private labels production. From a manufacturer's perspective, supplying private labels often starts on a strategic basis. When a manufacturer engages in private labels, the manufacturer does not have to spend on advertising, retailer promotions or maintain a dedicated sales force. Moreover, if a manufacturer has weak marketing capabilities, the manufacturer can make use of retailer's marketing capability to produce private labels and lessen its marketing cost and increases its profit margin. Figure 1. is the theoretical framework based on a strategic market management perspective, integrated concept of both S-C-P paradigm and resource-based theory. The model includes one mediate variable, marketing capabilities, and the other moderate variable, competitive intensity. Manufacturer's national brand reputation, firm's marketing investment, and product portfolio, which are hypothesized to positively affected manufacturer's marketing capabilities. Then, marketing capabilities has negatively effected on private label production. Moderating effects of competitive intensity are hypothesized on the relationship between marketing capabilities and private label production. To verify the proposed research model and hypotheses, data were collected from 192 manufacturers (212 responses) who are producing private labels in South Korea. Cronbach's alpha test, explanatory / comfirmatory factor analysis, and correlation analysis were employed to validate hypotheses. The following results were drawing using structural equation modeling and all hypotheses are supported. Findings indicate that manufacturer's private label production is strongly related to its marketing capabilities. Consumer marketing capabilities, in turn, is directly connected with the 3 strategic factors (e.g., marketing investment, manufacturer's national brand reputation, and product portfolio). It is moderated by competitive intensity between marketing capabilities and private label production. In conclusion, this research may be the first study to investigate the reasons manufacturers engage in private labels based on two competing theoretic views, S-C-P paradigm and resource-based theory. The private label phenomenon has received growing attention by marketing scholars. In many industries, private labels represent formidable competition to manufacturer brands and manufacturers have a dilemma with selling to as well as competing with their retailers. The current study suggests key factors when manufacturers consider engaging in private label production.

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