• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.9
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• pp.263-269
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• 2022

The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2019 along with the slow and unstable recovery of the global economy have raised concerns about the impact of global uncertainty on the macroeconomics of the countries. The paper used the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to examine the impact of global uncertainty shocks on Vietnam's economy from the period 2008-2022. We found that Vietnam's output dropped following the shock of global uncertainty, the peak was in the third month, and lasted for one year. Inflation in Vietnam had a rapid downturn in the first month, peaked in the seventh month, and took a long time to cease. When the economy experienced the shock of increased global uncertainty, Vietnam's policy interest rate was adjusted downward. Additionally, we included a long-term interest rate to consider the overall impact of monetary policy into account. A decreasing trend was also found with this rate. The global uncertainty shock effects acted as the aggregate demand shocks, reducing output and inflation as the uncertainty increases and vice versa, thus monetary policy can be used to regulate Vietnam's economy to deal with negative shocks without the trade-offs between output and inflation as aggregate supply shocks.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 2021

Purpose - The global trend of protectionism has expanded since the onset of US President Donald Trump's administration in 2017. This global phenomenon has led to a significant reduction in world trade volume and a negative impact on economic development in some countries where the external sector accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Although Korea is a country vulnerable to this deteriorating trade environment, few studies have examined the relationship between protectionism and its business cycles based on Korean data. Thus, this paper investigates the impact of protectionism on Korea's business cycle. Design/methodology - To identify future implications, we conduct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis using monthly Korean data from 1994 to 2015. Macroeconomic variables in the model include the industrial production index, inflation rates, exports (or net exports), interest rates, and exchange rates. For the identification of the shock reflecting the expansion of protectionism, we use an antidumping investigation (ADI) data. Since ADIs are followed generally by the imposition of antidumping tariffs, they have no contemporaneous impact on tariffs and are also contemporaneously exogenous to other endogenous variables in the VAR model. We examine two kinds of ADI shocks i) shocks on Korean exports imposed by Korea's trading partners (ADI-imposed shocks) and ii) shocks on imports imposed by the Korean government (ADI-imposing shocks). Findings - We find that Korea's exports decline sharply due to ADI-imposed shocks; the lowest point at the third month after the initial shock; and do not recover until 24 months later. Simultaneously, the inflation rate decreases. Therefore, the ADI-imposed shock can be regarded as a negative shock on the demand curve where both production and price decrease. In contrast, the ADI-imposing shock generates a different response. The net exports decline, but the inflation rate increases. These can be seen as standard responses with respect to the negative shock on the supply curve. Originality/value - We shed light on the relationship between protectionism and Korea's economic fluctuations, which is rarely addressed in previous studies. We also consider the effects of both protective policy measures on imports to Korea imposed by the Korean government and on policy measures imposed by Korea's trading partner countries on its exports.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.1-22
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• 2016

We analyzed the international comovements and structural changes in the quarterly real GDP by the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR) from 1971(1) to 2016(1). The main results of this study were as follows. First, the business cycle phenomenon that occurs in the models or individual time series in real GDP has been grasped through the MS-VAR models. Unlike previous studies, this study showed the significant comovements, asymmetry and structural changes in the MS-VAR model using a real GDP across countries. Second, even if there was a partial difference, there were remarkable structural changes in the economy contraction regime(recession), such as 1988(2) ending the global oil shock crisis and 2007(3) starting the global financial crisis by the MS-VAR model. Third, large-scale structural changes were generated in the economic expansion and/or contraction regime simultaneously among countries. We found that the second world oil shocks that occurred after the first global oil shocks of 1973 and 1974 were the main reasons that caused the large-scale comovements of the international real GDP among countries. In addition, the spillover between Korea and 5 countries has been weak during the Asian currency crisis from 1997 to 1999, but there was strong transmission between Korea and 5 countries at the end of 2007 including the period of the global financial crisis. Fourth, it showed characteristics that simultaneous correlation appeared to be high due to the country-specific shocks generated for each country with the regime switching using real GDP since 1973. Thus, we confirmed that conclusions were consistent with a number of theoretical and empirical evidence available, and the macro-economic changes were mainly caused by the global shocks for the past 30 years. This study found that the global business cycles were due to large-scale asymmetric shocks in addition to the general changes, and then showed the main international comovements and/or structural changes through country-specific shocks.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.146-154
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• 2009

Dynamic response of a hull mounted sonar(HMS) to shocks transmitted through hull structures is analyzed and then the structural reliability of the sonars is evaluated. Finite element model of the hull mounted sonar is established and the transient responses to the shock is calculated using MSC.NASTRAN. According to BV043, the maximum allowable accelerations at the foundation of the sonar are converted from the shock spectra allowable for HMS. They are applied vertically and horizontally, respectively, using the large mass method. The structural reliability is evaluated by comparing the von-Mises stresses with the material yield stress. The drum for sensors shows a high reliability owing to mounts by which the shock waves from the base structure are well protected. However, the mounts between the base structure and the drum to mount sensors show a high stress intensity. The base structure also reveals a high stress intensity at the connection points to the hull.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.11
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• pp.2638-2651
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• 2020

Nozzle corner cracks present at the intersection of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) and inlet or outlet nozzles have been a persistent problem for a number of years. The fracture analysis of such nozzle corner cracks is very important and critical for the efficient design and assessment of the structural integrity of RPVs. This paper aims to perform an engineering critical assessment of RPVs with nozzle corner cracks subjected to several transients accompanied by pressurized thermal shocks. The critical crack size of the RPV model with nozzle corner cracks under transient loading is evaluated on failure assessment curve. In particular, the influence of cladding on the crack initiation of nozzle corner crack under thermal transients is studied. The influence of primary internal pressure and secondary thermal stress on the stress field at nozzle corner and SIF at crack front is analyzed. Finally, the influence of different crack size and crack shape on the final critical crack size is analyzed.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.323-344
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• 2023

This study investigates the resilient structural characteristics of a region by assessing the impact of the financial crisis. Utilizing panel data at the prefecture level for metropolitan cities across pre-shock (2006-2008), shock (2009), and post-shock (2010-2019) periods, we calculated an employment resilience index by combining the resistance and recovery indices. The panel logit regression measures the influences of the region's industrial structure and external economic factors in response to the global financial crisis. The results revealed that the diversity index of industries contributed to the post-shock recovery bounce-back. Additionally, the presence of large firms and industrial clusters within the region positively contributed to economic resilience. The specialization and the proportion of manufacturing industries showed negative effects, suggesting that regions overly reliant on manufacturing-centered specialization might be vulnerable to external shocks. Furthermore, excessive capital outflows for market expansion were found to have a detrimental impact on regional economic recovery.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.14-21
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• 2020

The automotive seat appropriately absorbs the vibrations or shocks transmitted through a vehicle when it is in operation so as to provide a comfortable ride for passengers. In this study, the structural strength and durability of each model were investigated using structural analysis. The natural and critical frequencies at the seat were analyzed through vibration analysis. Through the results of this study on automotive seat frame models, the durability against the load and vibration is shown to be dependent on the configuration of the model.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.485-492
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• 1998

Most forecasting models often fail to produce appropriate forecasts because we build a model based on the assumption of the data being generated from the only one stochastic process. However, in many real problems, the time series data are generated from one stochastic process for a while and then abruptly undergo certain structural changes. In this paper, we assume the basic underlying process is the simple state-space model with random level and deterministic drift but interrupted by three types of exogenous shocks: level shift, drift change, outlier. A Bayesian procedure to detect, estimate and adapt to the structural changes is developed and compared with simple, double and adaptive exponential smoothing using simulated data and the U.S. leading composite index.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.40-46
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• 2021

At launch, satellites are exposed to various types of structural loads, such as quasi-static loads, sinusoidal vibrations, acoustic/random vibrations, and shocks. The launch environment test is aimed at verifying the structural stability of the test object against the launch environment. Various types of launch environments are simulated by simple vibration, acoustic, and shock tests considering possible test conditions in ground. However, the difference between the launch environment and the test environment is one of the causes of excessive testing. To prevent overtesting, a notching technique that adjusts the frequency range and the input load considering the design load is applied. For notching, specific procedures are established considering the satellite development concept, selected launch vehicle, higher system requirements, and test target level. In this study, the notching method, established procedure, and development of a notching toolkit for efficient testing are described.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.113-124
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• 2021

The study investigates how financial markets respond to a shock to tone and semantic similarity of the Bank of Thailand press releases. The techniques in natural language processing are employed to quantify the tone and the semantic similarity of 69 press releases from 2010 to 2018. The corpus of the press releases is accessible to the general public. Stock market returns and bond yields are measured by logged return on SET50 and short-term and long-term government bonds, respectively. Data are daily from January 4, 2010, to August 8, 2019. The study uses the Structural Vector Auto Regressive model (SVAR) to analyze the effects of unanticipated and temporary shocks to the tone and the semantic similarity on bond yields and stock market returns. Impulse response functions are also constructed for the analysis. The results show that 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year bond yields significantly increase in response to a positive shock to the tone of press releases and 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year and 25-year bond yields significantly increase in response to a positive shock to the semantic similarity. Interestingly, stock market returns obtained from the SET50 index insignificantly respond to the shocks from the tone and the semantic similarity of the press releases.