• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.1-28
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• 2012

This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

• Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.432-441
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• 2010

The Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State University (CNS-ASU) is a Nano-scale Science and Engineering Center (NSEC) funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF). It implements an agenda of "real-time technology assessment" (RTTA) in pursuit of a strategic vision of the "anticipatory governance" of nanotechnologies. To achieve this vision, CNS-ASU unifies research programs not only across several universities but also across three critical, component activities: foresight (of plausible future scenarios), integration (of social science and humanities research with nano-scale science and engineering), and engagement (of publics in deliberations). CNS-ASU also performs educational and training activities as well as public outreach and informal science education. This paper elaborates the Center's strategic vision of anticipatory governance and its component activities, especially in the context of extending the concerns of societal dimensions research beyond the traditional risk paradigm.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.82-108
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• 2023

As tension escalates between the US and China, scenarios for maintaining peace in Northeast Asia imply that secondary powers will perceive increasing incentives to reappraise their respective international roles. This analysis proposes that an analysis of France's Cold War role in Europe and the world under President Charles de Gaulle provides insights into conflict management in an increasingly multipolar international political environment. Their respective interests in preventing a so-called new Cold War emerging between the US and China include avoiding its excessive economic costs, if only because China is a massive trade partner. This study engages in theoretical framework-informed process tracing of de Gaulle's role. It explicates the assumptions that functionally underpinned de Gaulle's policy of soft balancing between the US and China. The analysis explores de Gaulle's contribution to the decay of the Cold War. It illuminates de Gaulle's contribution to a regional international environment that made West German Chancellor Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik strategy more feasible politically. This study applies these findings in the formulation of strategy recommendations focusing on Japan. Valid inferences regarding the predominant motivations driving American and Chinese international interaction are necessary for this task. To the extent to which the US and China have entered into a conflict spiral, Japan's hedging towards Washington is further incentivized. Tokyo would necessarily need to convince the Chinese that Japan is no longer Washington's unsinkable aircraft carrier off its coast. Tokyo, like de Gaulle's France, would maintain close relations with Washington, but it would need to project to its interlocutors its commitment to its own strategic autonomy. Tokyo's emphasis on closer relations with liberal democratic Indo-Pacific actors would potentially fit well with a commitment to strategic autonomy to defend the global liberal order.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1105-1115
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• 2018

In Korea, there are only a few cases that quantitative evaluate the impacts of climate change on water supply. Therefore, to ensure stable water supply in the future, a water resources plan is needed to establish by analyzing the scenarios that take into consideration the various situations in the future. In this study, we analyzed the changes of various situations for the Nakdong River basin, and constructed it for the future scenario. The stability of the water supply was analyzed through the analysis of water supply and demand prospect for each scenario path. We selected the areas expected to experience difficulty in supplying water supply and analyzed the scenarios of future water shortage by region and water sector. Also, the effect of increasing water supply capacity through optimal integrated operation of water supply facilities was analyzed and presented. Analysis of the results shows that there is a difficulty in supplying water due to future climate change experienced in the Nakdong River basin. Therefore it is necessary to prepare various countermeasures in order to mitigate or solve this problem.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.861-872
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• 2022

The purpose of this study was to establish a complex disaster scenario that can comprehensively consider various disaster situations that may occur in the utility tunnel. Method: In order to comprehensively consider the correlation between disasters, a composite disaster scenario was derived from a combination of damage factors, respectively. A risk assessment was performed in order to derive the priorities of the scenarios. And based on the results, the priorities of complex disaster scenarios were set. Result: Based on the disaster cases in the utility tunnel, a plan was prepared for complex disaster scenarios centered on damage. A complex disaster scenario was specified using a semi-quantitative evaluation method for single and multiple disaster factors such as fire, flooding, and earthquake. Conclusion: The composite disaster scenario derived from this study can be used for the prevention and preparation of damage when the precursor symptoms of a disaster are detected. In addition, the results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for preparing strategic plans and preparing complex disaster response technologies to induce rapid response and recovery in case of emergency disasters.

• Proceedings of the Korea Port Economic Association Conference
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• 2006.08a
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• pp.1-12
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• 2006

As national economies globalize, demand for intercontinental container shipping services is growing rapidly, providing a potential economic boon for the countries and communities that provide port services. On the promise of profits, many governments are investing heavily in port infrastructure, leading to a possible glut in port capacity, driving down prices for port services and eliminating profits as ports compete for business. Further, existing ports are making strategic investments to protect their market share, increasing the chance new ports will be overcapitalized and unprofitable. Governments and port researchers need a tool for understanding how local competition in their region will affect demand for port services at their location, and thus better assess the profitability of a prospective port. We propose to develop such a tool by extending our existing simulation model of global container traffic to incorporate demand-side shipper preferences and supply-side strategic responses by incumbent ports to changes in the global port network, including building new ports, scaling up existing ports, and unexpected port closures. We will estimate shipper preferences over routes, port attributes and port services based on US and international shipping data, and redesign the simulation model to maximize the shipper's revealed preference functions rather than simply minimize costs. As demand shifts, competing ports will adjust their pricing (short term) and infrastructure (long term) to remain competitive or defend market share, a reaction we will capture with a game theoretic model of local monopoly that will predict changes in port characteristics. The model's hypotheses will be tested in a controlled laboratory experiment tailored to local port competition in Asia, which will also serve to demonstrate the subtle game theoretic concepts of imperfect competition to a policy and industry audience. We will apply the simulation model to analyze changes in global container traffic in three scenarios: addition of a new large port in the US, extended closure of an existing large port in the US, and cooperative and competitive port infrastructure development among Korean partner countries in Asia.

• Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.53-65
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• 2012

Objectives : This study aimed to analyze the fundamentals of a Korea-China FTA and suggest strategies for Korean medicine market that correspond with each scenario selected from foreseen circumstances after the conclusion of the FTA through the scenario planning, which is one of management techniques. Methods : Four scenarios have been established by means of key questions : the scope of FTA, health care policies, and the combination of western medicine(WM) and Korean medicine(KM). Each scenario is defined as the Maximized Competitive Market, Neutral Market, General Completive Market, and Conservative Market. This study suggests brand marketing, extending of health insurance coverage, launching local network, and strategy for Korean medicine based health promotion programs. Results and Conclusions : Although Korean medicine could be prompted by the trade policies between countries, related studies are very limited. Therefore, more research is needed to suggest the detailed strategies for change of Korean medicine market through various strategic analysis tools.

• Journal of the Korea Computer Graphics Society
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.9-17
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• 2009

Animating multiple characters to compete with each other is an important problem in computer games and animation films. However, it remains difficult to simulate strategic competition among characters because of its inherent complex decision process that should be able to cope with often unpredictable behavior of opponents. We adopt a reinforcement learning method in Markov games to action models built from captured motion data. This enables two characters to perform globally optimal counter-strategies with respect to each other. We also extend this method to simulate competition between two teams, each of which can consist of an arbitrary number of characters. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach through various competitive scenarios, including playing-tag, keeping-distance, and shooting.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.164-186
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• 2020

It is generally known that a Science and Technology Park - as a representative example of an Innovation Cluster - produces network synergy among industry, university, research institutes, and other innovation actors in a specific area, so that it has a competitive edge over other regions in technological innovation. However, as the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic unfolds, it has become necessary to reduce face-to-face contacts and this could lead to lesser network synergy being produced in an Innovation Cluster. With this background, this research was designed and conducted to evaluate how COVID-19 has changed the activities in Innovation Clusters and explore future development scenarios. In order to find out the changes occurring in an Innovation Cluster, a survey was conducted among the people in Science and Technology Parks. The survey result shows that people are experiencing difficulties in technological innovation and support activities, and face-to-face contacts have been reduced in the Innovation Cluster. A scenario planning sought to explore the future development of the Innovation Cluster. It suggests that the transformation into a Digital Innovation Cluster, which is less affected by physical distance, but can still maintain the effectiveness of the networks, can be the key strategy for the future Innovation Cluster.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.2139-2151
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• 2014

Embedded system testing, especially long-term reliability testing, of flash memory solutions such as embedded multi-media card, secure digital card and solid-state drive involves strategic decision making related to test sample size to achieve high test coverage. The test sample size is the number of flash memory devices used in a test. Earlier, there were physical limitations on the testing period and the number of test devices that could be used. Hence, decisions regarding the sample size depended on the experience of human testers owing to the absence of well-defined standards. Moreover, a lack of understanding of the importance of the sample size resulted in field defects due to unexpected user scenarios. In worst cases, users finally detected these defects after several years. In this paper, we propose that a large number of potential field defects can be detected if an adequately large test sample size is used to target weak features during long-term reliability testing of flash memory solutions. In general, a larger test sample size yields better results. However, owing to the limited availability of physical resources, there is a limit on the test sample size that can be used. In this paper, we address this problem by proposing a self-adaptive reliability testing scheme to decide the sample size for effective long-term reliability testing.