• 제목/요약/키워드: Stock-Flow Models

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Setting limits for water use in the Wairarapa Valley, New Zealand

  • Mike, Thompson
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.227-227
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    • 2015
  • The Wairarapa Valley occupies a predominantly rural area in the lower North Island of New Zealand. It supports a mix of intensive farming (dairy), dry stock farming (sheep and beef cattle) and horticulture (including wine grapes). The valley floor is traversed by the Ruamahanga River, the largest river in the Wellington region with a total catchment area of 3,430 km2. Environmental, cultural and recreational values associated with this Ruamahanga River are very high. The alluvial gravel and sand aquifers of the Wairarapa Valley, support productive groundwater aquifers at depths of up to 100 metres below ground while the Ruamahanga River and its tributaries present a further source of water for users. Water is allocated to users via resource consents by Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC). With intensifying land use, demand from the surface and groundwater resources of the Wairarapa Valley has increased substantially in recent times and careful management is needed to ensure values are maintained. This paper describes the approach being taken to manage water resources in the Wairarapa Valley and redefine appropriate limits of sustainable water use. There are three key parts: Quantifying the groundwater resource. A FEFLOW numerical groundwater flow model was developed by GWRC. This modelling phase provided a much improved understanding of aquifer recharge and abstraction processes. It also began to reveal the extent of hydraulic connection between aquifer and river systems and the importance of moving towards an integrated (conjunctive) approach to allocating water. Development of a conjunctive management framework. The FEFLOW model was used to quantify the stream flow depletion impacts of a range of groundwater abstraction scenarios. From this, three abstraction categories (A, B and C) that describe diminishing degrees of hydraulic connection between ground and surface water resources were mapped in 3 dimensions across the Valley. Interim allocation limits have been defined for each of 17 discrete management units within the valley based on both local scale aquifer recharge and stream flow depletion criteria but also cumulative impacts at the valley-wide scale. These allocation limits are to be further refined into agreed final limits through a community-led decision making process. Community involvement in the limit setting process. Historically in New Zealand, limits for sustainable resource use have been established primarily on the basis of 'hard science' and the decision making process has been driven by regional councils. Community involvement in limit setting processes has been through consultation rather than active participation. Recent legislation in the form of a National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management (2011) is reforming this approach. In particular, collaborative consensus-based decision making with active engagement from stakeholders is now expected. With this in mind, a committee of Wairarapa local people with a wide range of backgrounds was established in 2014. The role of this committee is to make final recommendations about resource use limits (including allocation of water) that reflect the aspirations of the communities they represent. To assist the committee in taking a holistic view it is intended that the existing numerical groundwater flow models will be coupled with with surface flow, contaminant transport, biological and economic models. This will provide the basis for assessing the likely outcomes of a range of future land use and resource limit scenarios.

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지역전략산업육성사업과 지역경제성장 파급효과: 충북 사례를 중심으로 (Regional Strategic Industry (RSI) Promotion Projects and Their Impact on Regional Economic Growth: Focused on Chungbuk Province Cases)

  • 최남희;조병설;안유정;이만형
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.5-29
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    • 2013
  • This study tries to measure the direct and indirect effects of the Regional Strategic Industry (RSI) promotion projects in Chungbuk Province in Korea. In specific, it critically examines whether there exists policy consistency and connectivity between the hardware-oriented Stage I (2002~2007) and the software-centered Stage II (2008~2012) RSI promotion projects. Applying System Dynamics (SD) techniques, this study examines complex system characteristics of RSI promotion projects, all of which have been derived from the causal and stock-flow models and their simulated results. Major findings are as follows: Firstly, 'the continuous investment' is regarded as the most crucial policy leverage for the strategic industry promotion and regional economic growth. Secondly, without exceptions, the RSI promotion projects should switch their evaluation criteria to performance-oriented ones. Thirdly, in selecting their subprojects, the RSI promotion projects should pay due attention to evaluating technology value and marketability. Fourthly, it should put policy priority in strengthening cluster networking and interconnectivity among projects, inevitably supporting a selective number of virtuous network systems. Fifthly, auxiliary projects such as marketing, technology aid, and knowledge-based services should not be overlooked.

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Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosures on Bankruptcy Risk of Vietnamese Firms

  • NGUYEN, Soa La;PHAM, Cuong Duc;NGUYEN, Anh Huu;DINH, Hung The
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권5호
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the nexus between the level of Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosures (CSRD) and Risk of Bankruptcy of companies that are listing in the Stock Exchanges of Vietnam. To investigate that relationship, this study collected secondary data from annual audited financial statements from 2014 to 2018 of listing companies. Applying two different regression models with two dependent variables and six independent and control variables, we find out that Vietnamese firms with higher level of CSRD performance can rapidly reduce their risk of bankruptcy. This phenomenon happens in the current year and in the coming years in all firms in the research sample. This result may be that the disclosures of social responsibility information can bring financial and non-financial benefits to the firms. In addition, the results also point out that there is a difference in risk of bankruptcy between the group of companies, which discloses and the one which does not disclose corporate social responsibility on their annual reports. This might be from the effects of various factors such as business size, financial leverage, market to book ratio, return on assets, cash flow from operations, etc. Our research results can be applied to other firms in Vietnam and in other similar jurisdictions.

Influence of Ownership Structure on Voluntary Accounting Information Disclosure: Evidence from Top 100 Vietnamese Companies

  • TRAN, Quoc Thinh;NGUYEN, Ngoc Khanh Dung;LE, Xuan Thuy
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.327-333
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    • 2021
  • Accounting information disclosure by enterprises is important for third-party entities (suppliers, creditors, banks, regulators, etc.). Voluntary accounting information disclosure (VAID) refers to additional information related to business activities shown on the annual report above and beyond the required information about business results and financial position as well as cash flow. This supports the stakeholders gaining useful information to make proper business decisions. The article examines the influence of ownership structure on the voluntary accounting information disclosure of the top 100 Vietnamese listed companies (VN100). Data collected by authors on regular annual reports totaled 425 observations from 2015 to 2019. The article uses OLS to test multivariate regression models with time-series data. The research results show that there are three variables affecting voluntary accounting information disclosure, of which foreign ownership and institution ownership have a positive impact, while concentration ownership has an opposite impact. Accordingly, the managers of VN100 should raise awareness in order to demonstrate the obligation of information providers to users to ensure clarity and completeness. The state agencies should encourage VN100 to enhance voluntary accounting information disclosure. This contributes to improve the information level of Vietnamese listed companies to embrace the trend of international economic integration.

전염병 구획 모형에 대한 시스템다이내믹스 접근법: 국내 MERS 전염 SEIR 모형의 해석 및 변환 (System Dynamics Approach to Epidemic Compartment Model: Translating SEIR Model for MERS Transmission in South Korea)

  • 정재운
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제16권7호
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    • pp.259-265
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    • 2018
  • 수학모형의 한 유형인 구획모형은 전염병의 확산처럼 순차적인 이벤트나 프로세스로 구성된 동적 시스템의 변화를 분석하는 데 폭넓게 활용되어 왔다. 구획모형은 상자와 화살표로 표현되는 구획과 구획 간 관계로 구성된다. 이러한 원리는 stock과 flow로 구성되는 시스템다이내믹스(SD)의 모델링 원리와 비슷하다. 두 모형 모두 미분방정식을 이용하여 구조화된다. 이와 같은 두 모형 간 변환 가능성을 이용하여 국내 MERS 전염의 특징을 분석한 최근 연구의 SEIR 참조모형을 SD 관점에서 해석 변환한다. 변환된 SEIR 모형(Model 2)은 참조모형(Model 1)의 재현 결과와 비교하여 동일한 시뮬레이션 결과를 나타내었다. 본 연구는 전염병 구획모형의 구축에 도식과 미분방정식을 이용한 SD 방법론의 활용에 대한 인사이트를 제공하며, 변환된 SD 모형은 다른 전염병을 위한 참조모형으로 활용 가능하다.

이중 바닥 온돌 시스템의 응용에 관한 이론적 분석 (Theoretical Analysis on the Applications of the Double-Floor Ondol System)

  • 최원기;이강영;이현근;서승직
    • 설비공학논문집
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.355-363
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    • 2007
  • The Korean traditional 'Ondol' system has been a target for innovation to meet the requirements of sustainable domestic building and low carbon emission energy utilization. Simulation techniques provide designers and researchers with powerful tools to predict heating load and thermal behaviour of Ondol systems installed in various contexts. However, there are few studies on Ondol models, especially associated with multi-stories buildings of which type covers about 50% of Korean housing stock. In this study, we analyzed the double floor Ondol system on the multi-stories buildings using the ESP-r program. On the basis of the double floor Ondol system, we suggested the new modelling method that is composed of the Vent zone and Ondol zone. Using the this model, sensitivity analysis was carried out to refine the applicability of the model taking account of control conditions, constructions, air change and air flow network method and CFD analysis using the FLUENT. The air layer has enough temperature to use in heating zone. It is suggested that the simplicity of the model will allow building designers and mechanical engineers easily to implement scenario-based assessments of design options as well as control strategies. Later, we will simulate the real buildings and analyze the air distributions using the Fluent according to the various conditions.

KOSDAQ 시장의 관리종목 지정 탐지 모형 개발 (Development of a Detection Model for the Companies Designated as Administrative Issue in KOSDAQ Market)

  • 신동인;곽기영
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.157-176
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    • 2018
  • 관리종목은 상장폐지 가능성이 높은 기업들을 즉시 퇴출하기 보다는 시장 안에서 일정한 제약을 부여하고, 그러한 기업들에게 상장폐지 사유를 극복할 수 있는 시간적 기회를 주는 제도이다. 뿐만 아니라 이를 투자자 및 시장참여자들에게 공시하여 투자의사결정에 주의를 환기시키는 역할을 한다. 기업의 부실화로 인한 부도 예측에 관한 연구는 많이 있으나, 부실화 가능성이 높은 기업에 대한 사회, 경제적 경보체계라 할 수 있는 관리종목에 관한 연구는 상대적으로 매우 부족하다. 이에 본 연구는 코스닥 기업들 가운데 관리종목 지정 기업과 비관리종목 기업을 표본으로 삼아 로지스틱 회귀분석과 의사결정나무 분석을 이용하여 관리종목 지정 예측 모형을 개발하고 검증하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 로지스틱 회귀분석 모형은 ROE(세전계속사업이익), 자기자본현금흐름률, 총자산회전율을 사용하여 관리종목 지정을 예측하였으며, 전체 평균 예측 정확도는 검증용 데이터셋에 대해 86%의 높은 성능을 보여주었다. 의사결정나무 모형은 현금흐름/총자산과 ROA(당기순이익)를 통한 분류규칙을 적용하여 약 87%의 예측 정확도를 보여주었다. 로지스틱 회귀분석 기반의 관리종목 탐지 모형의 경우 ROE(세전계속사업이익)와 같은 구체적인 관리종목 지정 사유를 반영하면서 기업의 활동성에 초점을 맞추어 관리종목 지정 경향성을 설명하는 반면, 의사결정 관리종목 탐지 모형은 기업의 현금흐름을 중심으로 하여 관리종목 지정을 예측하는 것으로 나타났다.

뉴럴 텐서 네트워크 기반 주식 개별종목 지식개체명 추출 방법에 관한 연구 (A Study on Knowledge Entity Extraction Method for Individual Stocks Based on Neural Tensor Network)

  • 양윤석;이현준;오경주
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2019
  • 정보화 시대의 넘쳐나는 콘텐츠들 속에서 사용자의 관심과 요구에 맞는 양질의 정보를 선별해내는 과정은 세대를 거듭할수록 더욱 중요해지고 있다. 정보의 홍수 속에서 사용자의 정보 요구를 단순한 문자열로 인식하지 않고, 의미적으로 파악하여 검색결과에 사용자 의도를 더 정확하게 반영하고자 하는 노력이 이루어지고 있다. 구글이나 마이크로소프트와 같은 대형 IT 기업들도 시멘틱 기술을 기반으로 사용자에게 만족도와 편의성을 제공하는 검색엔진 및 지식기반기술의 개발에 집중하고 있다. 특히 금융 분야는 끊임없이 방대한 새로운 정보가 발생하며 초기의 정보일수록 큰 가치를 지녀 텍스트 데이터 분석과 관련된 연구의 효용성과 발전 가능성이 기대되는 분야 중 하나이다. 따라서, 본 연구는 주식 관련 정보검색의 시멘틱 성능을 향상시키기 위해 주식 개별종목을 대상으로 뉴럴 텐서 네트워크를 활용한 지식 개체명 추출과 이에 대한 성능평가를 시도하고자 한다. 뉴럴 텐서 네트워크 관련 기존 주요 연구들이 추론을 통해 지식 개체명들 사이의 관계 탐색을 주로 목표로 하였다면, 본 연구는 주식 개별종목과 관련이 있는 지식 개체명 자체의 추출을 주목적으로 한다. 기존 관련 연구의 문제점들을 해결하고 모형의 실효성과 현실성을 높이기 위한 다양한 데이터 처리 방법이 모형설계 과정에서 적용되며, 객관적인 성능 평가를 위한 실증 분석 결과와 분석 내용을 제시한다. 2017년 5월 30일부터 2018년 5월 21일 사이에 발생한 전문가 리포트를 대상으로 실증 분석을 진행한 결과, 제시된 모형을 통해 추출된 개체명들은 개별종목이 이름을 약 69% 정확도로 예측하였다. 이러한 결과는 본 연구에서 제시하는 모형의 활용 가능성을 보여주고 있으며, 후속 연구와 모형 개선을 통한 성과의 제고가 가능하다는 것을 의미한다. 마지막으로 종목명 예측 테스트를 통해 본 연구에서 제시한 학습 방법이 새로운 텍스트 정보를 의미적으로 접근하여 관련주식 종목과 매칭시키는 목적으로 사용될 수 있는 가능성을 확인하였다.

운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여- (The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions)

  • 최성진
    • 한국문헌정보학회지
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    • 제4권
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

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Evaluation of Cardiac Function Analysis System Using Magnetic Resonance Images

  • Tae, Ki-Sik;Suh, Tae-Suk;Choe, Bo-Young;Lee, Hyoung-Koo;Shinn, Kyung-Sub;Jung, Seung-Eun;Lee, Jae-Moon
    • 한국의학물리학회지:의학물리
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.159-168
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    • 1999
  • Cardiac disease is one of the leading causes of death in Korea. In quantitative analysis of cardiac function and morphological information by three-dimensional reconstruction of magnetic resonance images, left ventricle provides an important role functionally and physiologically. However, existing procedures mostly rely on the extensive human interaction and are seldom evaluated on clinical applications. In this study, we developed a system which could perform automatic extraction of enpicardial and endocardial contour and analysis of cardiac function to evaluate reliability and stability of each system comparing with the result of ARGUS system offered 1.5T Siemens MRI system and manual method performed by clinicians. For various aspects, we investigated reliability of each system by compared with left ventricular contour, end-diastolic volume (EDV), end-systolic volume (ESV), stock volume (SV), ejection fraction (EF), cardiac output (CO) and wall thickness (WT). When comparing with manual method, extracted results of developed process using minimum error threshold (MET) method that automatically extracts contour from cardiac MR images and ARGUS system were demonstrated as successful rate 90% of the contour extraction. When calculating cardiac function parameters using MET and comparing with using correlation coefficients analysis method, the process extracts endocardial and epicardial contour using MET, values from automatic and ARGUS method agreed with manual values within :t 3% average error. It was successfully demonstrated that automatic method using threshold technique could provide high potential for assessing of each parameters with relatively high reliability compared with manual method. In this study, the method developed in this study could reduce processing time compared with ARGUS and manual method due to a simple threshold technique. This method is useful for diagnosis of cardiac disease, simulating physiological function and amount of blood flow of left ventricle. In addition, this method could be valuable in developing automatic systems in order to apply to other deformable image models.

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