• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.65-75
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• 2022

This study aims to forecast of Air Passenger Demand between South Korea and North Korea using the system dynamics analysis methodology that is based on the system thinking. System dynamics is not only a tool that makes the systematic thought to a model but also a computer program-based analysis methodology that mathematically models the system varying according to time variation. This study analyzed the causal relationship based on the interrelation among variables and structured them by considering various variables that affect aviation cooperation from the perspective of Air passenger demand forecasting. In addition, based on the causal relationship between variables, this study also completed the causal loop diagram that forms a feedback loop, constructed the stock-flow diagram of Inter-Korean model using Vensim program. In this study, Air passenger demand was using by the simulation variable value into System Dynamics. This study was difficult to reflect the various variables constituting the North Korea environment, and there is a limit to the occurrence of events in North Korea.

• 산학경영연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.61-86
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• 2009

본 연구의 목적은 이익의 구성요소인 현금흐름과 발생액 그리고 현금흐름 요소 및 발생액의 요소가 현금흐름의 지속성과 기업가치에 미치는 영향을 조사하였다. 차기의 현금흐름과 재무제표공시시점 월말의 종가 각각을 종속 변수로 하고 당기의 현금흐름과 현금흐름의 구성요소, 그리고 발생액과 발생액의 구성요소를 독립변수로 하는 4개의 모형에 대하여 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 1980년에서 2006까지 증권거래소에 상장된 12월 결산 제조기업을 대상으로 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 현금흐름과 발생액은 현금흐름의 지속성과 기업가치 평가에 유의적인 관계를 보이고 있으며 현금흐름이나 발생액 보다는 현금흐름의 요소나 발생액의 요소가 현금흐름의 지속성과 기업가치평가에 미치는 영향이 더 컸다. 그리고 현금흐름의 요소와 발생액의 요소 중 일부는 현금흐름의 지속성이나 기업가치평가에 있어서 서로 다른 영향을 미치는 결과를 보였다. 따라서 현금흐름과 발생액을 현금흐름의 지속성과 기업가치 평가와 관련된 의사결정에 활용할 경우 총액보다는 각 요소별로 고려할 필요가 있으며, 현금흐름 예측시와 기업가치 평가에 있어서 각 요소를 달리 고려할 필요가 있음을 보여준다.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.137-151
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• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate whether financial analysts' cash flow forecasts mitigate the accrual anomaly. In addition, we examine whether the more accurate analysts' cash flow forecasts are the greater the decline of the accrual anomaly. Design/methodology/approach - Data used in the empirical tests are extracted through KIS-VALUE and FN-GUIDE, and the sample consists of firms listed on Korea Stock Exchange for 7 years from 2005 to 2011. We test the hypotheses using multiple regression analysis and we also estimate the regressions with the decile ranks of the explanatory variables to minimize the influence of outliers. Findings - We have failed to capture evidence that the provision of financial analysts' cash flow forecasts itself reduces the accrual anomaly. However, we find the accrual anomaly to be less severe when financial analysts provide more accurate cash flow forecasts. The findings are consistent in the regression models with the decile ranks as well as in the robustness tests that controlled the accruals quality. Research implications or Originality - This study contributes to the expansion of related studies in the Korea by providing empirical evidence partially that the financial analysts' cash flow forecasts mitigate the accrual anomaly.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.63-92
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• 2011

The purpose of this paper is to investigate a possibility of applying multimethodological approach for solving a dilemma. The motivation of this attempt is that the two different approaches, the system dynamics and the theory of constraints, resemble each other in having mental models for describing the target system and using graphic tools for representing those mental models. After a brief discussion on the comparison of the two approaches, a combined method applying to the problem of dilemma is suggested. For an experimental example, the proposed approach is applied to the sales and finance conflict on an inventory issue. The study shows that the suggested approach is able to complement each other's drawbacks. Especially constructing a stock-and-flow model and implementing a computer simulation would be very useful for quantifying the system's behavior which is hardly tracked down when applying the theory of constraints alone.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.99-106
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• 2020

CEOs Overconfidence can bring potentially risky early decisions to businesses, along with large enterprise free cash flow that can bring different investment decisions with CEOs Overconfidence. Especially in the context of Vietnamese enterprises, CEOs are often influenced by behavioral psychology about overconfidence in investment decisions (due to individual cultural characteristics as well as operating financial markets also depend on many factors outside the market). Therefore, the authors study the impact of overconfidence and cash flow on investment in Vietnamese to find the internal relationship between these three factors in the financial environment in Vietnam. With 480 companies listed on the Vietnam Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2018 (companies have continuous reports), the regression analysis results with panel data (FEM, GLS models, correction of robust and GMM dealing with endogenous problems) have shown Overconfidence has a positive impact on investment. At the same time, the results also indicated that enterprises with overconfident CEOs and large cash flows tend to invest less than enterprises with low cash flow. The results of this study have shown the behavioral behavior of CEOs in Vietnamese enterprises that exist under both prospect theory and effective market theory.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.233-253
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• 2014

Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

• 한국펄프종이공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국펄프종이공학회 2003년도 추계학술발표논문집
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• pp.306-330
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• 2003

The wet-end dynamics of a paper mill was analyzed to characterize its dynamic behavior during the grade change. The model representing the wet-end section is developed based on the mass balance relationships written for the simplified wet-end white water network. From the linearization of the dynamic model, higher-order Laplace transfer functions were obtained followed by the reduction procedure to give simple lower-order models in the form of $1^{st}$-order or $2^{nd}$-order plus dead times. The dynamic response of the wet-end is influenced both by the white water volume and by the level of wire retention. Effects of key manipulated variables such as the thick stock flow rate, the ash flow rate and the retention aid flow rate on the major controlled variables were analyzed by numerical simulations. The simple dynamic model developed in the present study can be effectively used in the operation and control.

• 펄프종이기술
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.26-36
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• 2003

The wet-end dynamics of a paper mill was analyzed to characterize its dynamic behavior during the grade change of paper. The model representing the wet-end section is developed based on the mass balance relationships written for the simplified wet-end white water network. From the linearization of dynamic model, higher-order Laplace transfer functions were obtained followed by the reduction procedure to give simple lower-order models in the form of 1$^{st}$-order or 2$^{nd}$ -order plus dead times. The dynamic response of the wet-end is influenced both by the white water volume and by the level of wire retention. Effects of key manipulated variables such as the thick stock flow rate, the ash flow rate and the retention aid flow rate on the major controlled variables were analyzed by numerical simulations. The simple dynamic model developed in the present study can be effectively used in the operation and control of paper mills.s.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.176-186
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• 1999

This paper starts out by reviewing the literature that in different ways utilizes patent data as an output of Research ＆ Development (R&D) investment. The main focus, however, is an analysis of time-lag between industrial R&D input and its output. To achieve this research's purpose, the basic data associated with the industrial R&D input (expenditure, researchers) and output (applied patent and utilities) for the past 15 years, from 1980 to 1994, in the areas of electrical-electronic, mechanical and chemical industries have been collected. And the raw input data were altered into real flow data (but stock data) using Laspeyres approach and analyzed using multiple regression analysis, especially stepwise regression analysis. The result of this study can be summarized as follows: a) The time-lag; between industrial R&D input and its output is within 1 to 3 years. b) The time-lag: of patents was longer than that of utility models. c) The time-lag: in electrical-electronic, chemical industry was longer than that of the mechanical industry.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.67-95
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• 2007

This paper focuses on prototype management models of location conflict concerned with crematory facilities in Korea. Using causal loops and stock-flow diagrams, it examines behavioral patterns of key variables, which would contribute to developing objective evaluation criteria. After a series of simulation works, the paper finds that the top priority should be given to how to improve neighboring residents' perception, ahead of specific compensation issues. Otherwise, they are open to vicious cycles or impasse. Juxtaposing individual cases together, Pusan and Cheongju examples which experienced the extreme confrontation in the initial stage could succeed in resolving crematory location conflict, especially between local residents and the public authorities, as the latter has repeatedly guaranteed to the former higher standards of participation. The opposite was almost true for Seoul and Ulsan cases, both of which were drawn into a crematory location whirlpool, incrementally losing resident's participation base. These results imply that the proposed management models would enhance mutual understanding among major stake-holders in relatively a shorter time, not to mention the overall cost.