• 지역연구
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.41-51
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• 1995

It has been estimated the total factor productivity(TFP)of the city of Seoul. Average TFP growth rate during 1974-1992 has been estimated as 0.0602. TFP growth rate has been decreased from 0.0804 of 1970's to 0.0561 of 1980 and 1990's Factsro affecting the TFP are found to be core infrastructure, capital stock and land price growth rate. High land price growth rate depresses the TFP growth rate. During 1989, due to the high land price growth rate and extremely low building costruction permit TFP rate has been estimated as negative.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.135-157
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• 2019

The linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes are long-standing issue to both economists and monetary authorities. This paper explores the impact of asset prices on output and price in China. It focuses on the impacts of asset prices on the low quantiles of GDP gap and high quantiles of price gaprespectively. The main findings are the following: the influence of stock price gap, stock returns, and money growth on the different quantile of GDP gap and price gap are noticeable different, and there are significant impacts on the left tail of GDP gap distribution and on the right tail of price gap distribution. This implies that the results coming from simple regression will underestimate the economic risk imposed by asset price volatility. Moreover, these results also provide the caveat that one should cautiously distinguish the meaning of asset price gap and asset price growth rate and use them, through their contents are similar in some sense. One implication for monetarypolicy is that authority should interpret the relationship between asset prices and macro-economy in wider perspectives, and make the policy decision taking the impacts of asset prices on the tails of economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.37-43
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• 2019

The research aims to study the relationship between export performance and stock return of Vietnamese fishery companies. To conduct this study, quarterly data was collected for period from 2010-2018 of 13 fishery companies listing in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Ha Noi Stock Exchange (HNX). The export performance was measured by export intensity, export growth and export market coverage. In addition, interest rate, exchange rate, GDP, firm size, profitability, and financial leverage were considered as the control variables in the research model. Panel data analysis with Generalized Least Squares model was employed to estimate the predictive regression. The findings indicated that export intensity and export growth have a significant and positive relationship with stock returns. However, export market coverage has not a significant relationship with stock return at the 0.05 level. Profitability, financial leverage, and exchange rate have a positive relationship, while interest rate and GDP have no relation to stock return at the 0.05 significance level. The findings imply that investors should consider the export intensity instead of export growth and export market coverage as selecting stock of fishery exports firms to invest; managers should increase export intensity to increase company's stock price or firm market value.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제18권7호
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• pp.223-228
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• 2020

주가는 사람들의 심리를 반영하고 있으며, 주식시장 전체에 영향을 미치는 요인으로는 경제성장률, 경제지료, 이자율, 무역수지, 환율, 통화량 등이 있다. 국내 주식시장은 전날 미국 및 주변 국가들의 주가지수에 영향을 많이 받고 있으며 대표적인 주가지수가 다우지수, 나스닥, S&P500이다. 최근 주가뉴스를 이용한 주가분석 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있으며, 인공지능 기반한 분석을 통하여 과거 시계열 데이터를 기반으로 미래를 예측하는 연구가 진행 중에 있다. 하지만, 주식시장은 예측시스템에 의해서 단기간 적중이 되더라도, 시장은 더 이상의 단기 전략대로 움직여지지 않고, 새롭게 변할 수밖에 없다. 따라서, 본 모델을 삼성전자 주식데이터와 뉴스 정보를 텍스트 마이닝으로 모니터링하여 분석한 결과를 나타내어 예측이 가능한 모델을 제시하였으며, 향후 종목별 예측을 통하여 실제 예측이 정확한지 확인하여 발전시켜 나갈 예정임.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.149-182
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• 2007

본 연구는 한국유가증권시장(거래소시장)에 상장된 기업 중 1997년부터 2002년까지 스톡옵션을 부여한 기업을 소유경영기업과 전문경영기업으로 분류하여 스톡옵션 도입 후 장기성과에 영향을 주는 요인을 분석한다. 스톡옵션 제도의 도입목적이 주주와 경영자 사이의 대리인비용 절감이라면, 소유경영기업보다는 전문경영기업이 스톡옵션 도입 후 장기성과를 분석하는데 적합할 것이다. 선행연구에서는 주주와 경영자 사이의 대리인비용은 경영자지분과 시가장부가비율이 낮을수록, 현금흐름률, 매출성장률이 높을수록 높다고 주장하였다. 본 연구는 다양한 대리인비용의 대용치를 사용하여 스톡옵션 부여 후 장기주가성과를 분석하였다. 연구결과 전문경영기업의 장기주가성과는 경영자지분 및 시가장부가비율과는 음의관계를, 매출 성장률, 일인당 옵션규모와는 양의 관계를 갖는다. 반면에 소유경영기업의 장기주가성과는 현금흐름률 및 매출성장률과는 음의관계를, 자산규모와는 양의관계를 갖는다. 이러한 결과는 전문경영기업에서는 주주와 경영자 사이의 대리인비용이 스톡옵션 도입 후 성과를 결정하는 중요한 요소임을 의미한다. 그러나 소유경영기업에서는 스톡옵션이 주주와 경영자 사이의 대리인비용 절감 보다는 비현금보상, 신호, 기업 내 대리인비용 절감 등의 목적으로 이용된다는 가능성을 제시한다. 본 연구는 기업특성과 목적에 부합하도록 스톡옵션을 활용하는 것이 기업 성과 향상에 기여한다는 해석과 일관성이 있다.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제49권8호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2011

Using the 1987-2008 quarterly aggregated data of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, this study investigated the factors influencing household saving rate. The independent variables in the AR regression model were the GDP growth rate, shares of the total household expenditure allocated to tax & social insurance, and education, the variables reflecting the conditions of the asset market including interest rate, stock market index, and real estate price index, and the variables representing the social economic conditions including the index of aging and income inequality. Among the independent variables interest rate, stock market index, and income inequality were found to be significantly associated with the household saving rate. These results suggested that the redistribution and financial market policies favorable to savers may be effective for raising the household saving rate.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.17-29
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• 2021

Purpose: The aim of this study is to explore the dynamic linkage between conditional stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty of Bangladesh. Research design, data, and methodology: This study uses monthly data covering the time period from January 2005 to December 2018. A comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IP), consumer price index (CPI), broad money supply (M2), 91-day treasury bill rate (TB), treasury bond yield (GB), exchange rate (EX), inflow of foreign remittance (RT) and stock market index of DSEX are used for analysis. Symmetric and asymmetric univariate GARCH family of models and multivariate VAR model, along with block exogeneity and impulse response functions, are implemented on conditional volatility series to discover the possible interactions and causal relations between macroeconomic forces and stock return. Results: The analysis of the study exhibits time-varying volatility and volatility persistence in all the variables of interest. Moreover, the asymmetric effect is found significant in the stock return and most of the growth series of macroeconomic fundamentals. Results from the multivariate VAR model indicate that only short-term interest rate significantly influence the stock market volatility, while conditional stock return volatility is significant in explaining the volatility of industrial production, inflation, and treasury bill rate. Conclusion: The findings suggest an increasing interdependence between the money market and equity market as well as the macroeconomic fundamentals of Bangladesh.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.134-141
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• 2019

The objective of this study was to establish whether global macroeconomic indicators affect the profitability of Korean shipping companies by using panel regression analysis. OROA (operating return on assets) and ROA (ratio of net profit to assets) were selected as proxy variables for profitability. OROA and ROA were used as dependent variables. The world GDP growth rate, interest rate, exchange rate, stock index, bunker price, freight, demand and supply of the world shipping market were set as independent variables. The size of the firm was added to the control variable. For small-sized firms, OROA was not affect by macroeconomic indicators. However, ROA was affected by variables such as interest rates, bunker prices, and size of firms. For medium-sized firms, OROA was affected by demand, supply, GDP, freight, and asset variables. However, macroeconomic indicators did not affect ROA. For large-sized firms, freight, GDP, and stock index (SCI; Shanghai Composite Index) have an effect on OROA. ROA was analyzed to be influenced by bunker price and SCI.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.59-74
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• 2015

This study aims to estimate optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caught by the offshore Stow Net and the offshore Gill Net fisheries using the current value Hamiltonian method and the surplus production model. As analyzing processes, firstly, this study uses the Gavaris general linear model to estimate standardized fishing efforts of yellow croaker caught by the above multiple fisheries. Secondly, this study applies the Clarke Yoshimoto Pooley(CY&P) model among the various exponential growth models to estimate intrinsic growth rate(r), environmental carrying capacity(K), and catchability coefficient(q) of yellow croaker which inhabits in offshore area of Korea. Thirdly, the study determines optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker using the current value Hamiltonian method which is including average landing price of yellow croaker, average unit cost of fishing efforts, and social discount rate based on standard of the Korean Development Institute. Finally, this study tries sensitivity analysis to understand changes in optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caused by changes in economic and biological parameters. As results drawn by the current value Hamiltonian model, the optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caught by the multiple fisheries were estimated as 19,173 ton, 101,644 horse power, and 146,144 ton respectively. In addition, as results of sensitivity analysis, firstly, if the social discount rate and the average landing price of yellow croaker continuously increase, the optimal harvesting production of yellow croaker increases at decreasing rate and then finally slightly decreases due to decreases in stock levels of yellow croaker. Secondly, if the average unit cost of fishing efforts continuously increases, the optimal fishing efforts of the multiple fisheries decreases, but the optimal stock level of yellow croaker increases. The optimal harvest starts climbing and then continuously decreases due to increases in the average unit cost. Thirdly, when the intrinsic growth rate of yellow croaker increases, the optimal harvest, fishing efforts, and stock level all continuously increase. In conclusion, this study suggests that the optimal harvesting production and fishing efforts were much less than actual harvesting production(35,279 ton) and estimated standardized fishing efforts(175,512 horse power) in 2013. This result implies that yellow croaker has been overfished due to excessive fishing efforts. Efficient management and conservative policy on stock of yellow croaker need to be urgently implemented.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.5-9
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper examines whether fiscal and monetary expansion would affect output in Australia. Research design, data, and methodology - An extended IS-LM model which describes the equilibrium in the goods market and the money market is applied. The real effective exchange rate and the real stock price are included in order to determine whether there may be any substitution or wealth effect. The sample consists of Annual data ranging from 1990 to 2018. The GARCH process is used in empirical work to correct for potential autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Results - Expansionary fiscal policy reduces output; whereas, expansionary monetary policy raises output. In addition, real appreciation of the Australian dollar, a lower U.S. interest rate, a higher real stock price or a lower expected inflation would increase output. The finding that expansionary fiscal policy has a negative impact on real GDP suggests that the negative crowding-out effect on private spending dominates the positive impact. Conclusions - Fiscal prudence needs to be pursued. Real depreciation of the Australian dollar hurts output. Monetary tightening in the U.S. generates a negative effect on Australia's output. A healthy stock market is conducive to economic growth as higher stock prices tend to result in the wealth and other positive effects, increasing consumption and business spending.