• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.205-230
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• 2021

This study examines the impact of the number of coronavirus cases on regime-switching in stock return volatility. This study documents the empirical evidence that the COVID-19 cases had an asymmetric effect on the regime of stock return volatility. When the stock return is in the low volatility regime, the probability of switching to the high volatility regime in the next trading day increases as the number of cumulative cases increases. In contrast, in the high volatility regime, the effect of cumulative cases on the transition probability is not statistically significant. This study also documents the evidence that the government measures against the pandemic contribute to promoting the high volatility regime of the KOSPI during the pandemic. Besides, this study projects future stock prices through the Monte Carlo simulation based on the estimated parameters and the predicted number of the COVID-19 new cases. Under a scenario where the number of new cases rapidly increases, stock price indices in Korea are expected to be in a downward trend over the next three months. On the other hand, under the moderate scenario and the best scenario, the stock indices are likely to continue to rise.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.195-202
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• 2022

This study investigates whether institutional investors increase or decrease the volatility of stock returns in the Thai stock market. For the purpose we used the data from SETSMART, a database provided by the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Our sample is a balanced panel data covering 3,160 firm-year observations from 316 nonfinancial firms listed on the SET from 2011 to 2020. We analyze the link between institutional holdings and the volatility of stock returns by the pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model, the fixed effects model, and the random-effects model. In particular, we regress the stock return volatility on institutional ownership while controlling for firm size, financial leverage, growth opportunities, and stock turnover and accounting for industry effects and year effects. Our results indicate institutional investors' positive and significant influence on the volatility of the stock returns. Additionally, we performed the dynamic Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator to alleviate concerns of possible endogeneity. The result still shows a positive impact of institutional investors on the volatility in stock returns. Overall, the findings of this study suggest that an increase in the volatility of stock returns in the Thai stock market may stem from a higher proportion of equity held by the institutional investors.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.275-322
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• 2015

The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS) market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1) model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.17-29
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• 2021

Purpose: The aim of this study is to explore the dynamic linkage between conditional stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty of Bangladesh. Research design, data, and methodology: This study uses monthly data covering the time period from January 2005 to December 2018. A comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IP), consumer price index (CPI), broad money supply (M2), 91-day treasury bill rate (TB), treasury bond yield (GB), exchange rate (EX), inflow of foreign remittance (RT) and stock market index of DSEX are used for analysis. Symmetric and asymmetric univariate GARCH family of models and multivariate VAR model, along with block exogeneity and impulse response functions, are implemented on conditional volatility series to discover the possible interactions and causal relations between macroeconomic forces and stock return. Results: The analysis of the study exhibits time-varying volatility and volatility persistence in all the variables of interest. Moreover, the asymmetric effect is found significant in the stock return and most of the growth series of macroeconomic fundamentals. Results from the multivariate VAR model indicate that only short-term interest rate significantly influence the stock market volatility, while conditional stock return volatility is significant in explaining the volatility of industrial production, inflation, and treasury bill rate. Conclusion: The findings suggest an increasing interdependence between the money market and equity market as well as the macroeconomic fundamentals of Bangladesh.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.3015-3024
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• 2018

This study investigates the recent asymmetric effect of news on stock return volatility in Asian five stock markets - Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia - since 2000. This study uses the GJR-M model which shows a different effect of a good and bad news on volatility. Empirical results show that the unexpected negative return has a more crucial effect on stock return volatility than the unexpected positive one does in all five stock markets. This implies that the bad news of the stock markets gives a more remarkable effect on volatility than good news does. This study finds that it is very important for market participants and regulation practitioners to distinguish between positive and negative return shocks in the stock markets since bad news might have a larger impacts on volatility than good news.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.153-167
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• 1997

There have been many studies concerning the relationships between stock returns and volatilities. Their positive relationship is well known from the theoretical point of view, but not empirically shown. Franch, Schwert and Stambaugh [11] has empirically provided the indirect evidence of the positive relationship betwen expected stock return and expected volatility. However, their study lacks some statistical validity. This study reexamines the relationship using regression diagnostics and GARCH model from an international point of view. The empirical results fall to show the positive relationship between expected stock return and expected volaiility, which contradicts those of France, Schwert and Stambangh [1].

• Advanced Industrial SCIence
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.22-28
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• 2023

In this study, we conducted research on the automated trading of U.S. stocks through a volatility strategy using the Fear and Greed index. Volatility in the stock market is a common phenomenon that can lead to fluctuations in stock prices. Investors can capitalize on this volatility by implementing a strategy based on it, involving the buying and selling of stocks based on their expected level of volatility. The goal of this thesis is to investigate the effectiveness of the volatility strategy in generating profits in the stock market.This study employs a quantitative research methodology using secondary data from the stock market. The dataset comprises daily stock prices and daily volatility measures for the S&P 500 index stocks. Over a five-year period spanning from 2016 to 2020, the stocks were listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The strategy involves purchasing stocks from the low volatility group and selling stocks from the high volatility group. The results indicate that the volatility strategy yields positive returns, with an average annual return of 9.2%, compared to the benchmark return of 7.5% for the sample period. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that the strategy outperforms the benchmark return in four out of the five years within the sample period. Particularly noteworthy is the strategy's performance during periods of high market volatility, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, where it generated a return of 14.6%, as opposed to the benchmark return of 5.5%.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.535-555
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• 2021

This study empirically analyzes the effects of international oil prices on domestic stock market volatility. The data used for the analysis are 10-minute high-frequency data of the KOSPI index and WTI futures price from January 2, 2015, to July 30, 2021. For using the high-frequency data, a heterogeneous autoregression (HAR) model is employed. The analysis model utilizes the advantages of high frequency data to observe the impact of international oil prices through realized volatility, realized skewness, and kurtosis as well as oil price return. In the estimation, the Box-Cox transformation is applied in consideration of the distribution of realized volatility with high skewness. As a result, it finds that the daily return fluctuation of the WTI price has a statistically significant positive (+) effect on the volatility of the KOSPI return. However, the volatility, skewness, and kurtosis of the WTI return do not appear to affect the volatility of the KOSPI return. This result is believed to be because the volatility of the KOSPI return reflects the daily change in the WTI return, but does not reflect the intraday trading behavior of investors.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.45-66
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper examines whether overnight returns and idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) jointly affects the cross-section of expected stock returns in the Korean stock market. Design/methodology/approach - Constructing 5×5 bivariate monthly portfolios independently sorted on overnight returns and IVOL, this paper tests whether overpricing of stocks with high overnight returns is more pronounced for the stocks that also have high IVOL. In addition, we also investigate whether time-variation in the degree of overpricing for those stocks can be explained by market volatility. Findings - Our results show that stocks having both high overnight returns and high IVOL exhibit strong negative returns in the future. In contrast, we are unable to observe such negative returns for the stocks that have high overnight returns and low IVOL. This suggests that overpricing of stocks with high overnight returns is concentrated for the stocks having high IVOL. Moreover, we also find that the degree to which such stocks are overpriced is negatively related to market volatility. Research implications or Originality - his paper is the first attempt to explore whether degree of overpricing of stocks having high overnight returns is related to IVOL. We also discover time-varying property of overpricing is jointly driven by overnight returns and IVOL. Our results indicate that IVOL might help explain other previously documented stock return anomalies, suggesting interesting topics for future research.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.67-88
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• 2014

The Chinese stock market has increasingly strengthened its market power on other stock markets due to rapid growth of its economy. In this context, this study investigated return spillover effect as well as asymmetric volatility spillover effect using a VAR-Bivariate EGARCH model among stock markets(China, US, Japan, Korea). Furthermore, we conjectured the impact of 2008 global financial crisis on the spillover effect of the Chinese stock market. In our empirical results, the Chinese stock market has a weak return spillover effect to other markets(US, Japan, Korea), but after the global financial crisis, its return spillover effect becomes stronger among other stock markets. In addition, the Chinese stock market have strengthened its asymmetric volatility spillover effect on other stock markets after the Global financial crisis. As a result, the Chinese stock market has an strong influence on other stock markets.