• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stock Price Pattern

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Long-Term Forecasting by Wavelet-Based Filter Bank Selections and Its Application

  • Lee, Jeong-Ran;Lee, You-Lim;Oh, Hee-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.249-261
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    • 2010
  • Long-term forecasting of seasonal time series is critical in many applications such as planning business strategies and resolving possible problems of a business company. Unlike the traditional approach that depends solely on dynamic models, Li and Hinich (2002) introduced a combination of stochastic dynamic modeling with filter bank approach for forecasting seasonal patterns using highly coherent(High-C) waveforms. We modify the filter selection and forecasting procedure on wavelet domain to be more feasible and compare the resulting predictor with one that obtained from the wavelet variance estimation method. An improvement over other seasonal pattern extraction and forecasting methods based on such as wavelet scalogram, Holt-Winters, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) is shown in terms of the prediction error. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated by a simulation study and an application to the real stock price data.

The Multisector Model of the Korean Economy: Structure and Coefficients (한국경제(韓國經濟)의 다부문모형(多部門模型) : 모형구조(模型構造)와 추정결과(推定結果))

  • Park, Jun-kyung;Kim, Jung-ho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.3-20
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    • 1990
  • The multisector model is designed to analyze and forecast structural change in industrial output, employment, capital and relative price as well as macroeconomic change in aggregate income, interest rate, etc. This model has 25 industrial sectors, containing about 1,300 equations. Therefore, this model is characterized by detailed structural disaggregation at the sectoral level. Individual industries are based on many of the economic relationships in the model. This is what distinguishes a multisector model from a macroeconomic model. Each industry is a behavioral agent in the model for industrial investment, employment, prices, wages, and intermediate demand. The strength of the model lies in the simulating the interactions between different industries. The result of its simulation will be introduced in the next paper. In this paper, we only introduce the structure of the multisector model and the coefficients of the equations. The multisector model is a dynamic model-that is, it solves year by year into the future using its own solutions for earlier years. The development of a dynamic, year-by-year solution allows us to combine the change in structure with a consideration of the dynamic adjustment required. These dynamics have obvious advantages in the use of the multisector model for industrial planning. The multisector model is a medium-term and long-term model. Whereas a short-term model can taken the labor supply and capital stock as given, a long-term model must acknowledge that these are determined endogenously. Changes in the medium-term can be analyzed in the context of long-term structural changes. The structure of this model can be summarized as follow. The difference in domestic and world prices affects industrial structure and the pattern of international trade; domestic output and factor price affect factor demand; factor demand and factor price affect industrial income; industrial income and relative price affect industrial consumption. Technical progress, as measured in terms of total factor productivity and relative price affect input-output coefficients; input-output coefficients and relative price determine the industrial input cost; input cost and import price determine domestic price. The differences in productivity and wage growth among different industries affect the relative price.

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A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Smartphone Security Using Fingerprint Password (다중 지문 시퀀스를 이용한 스마트폰 보안)

  • Bae, Kyoung-Yul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2013
  • Thereby using smartphone and mobile device be more popular the more people utilize mobile device in many area such as education, news, financial. In January, 2007 Apple release i-phone it touch off rapid increasing in user of smartphone and it create new market and these broaden its utilization area. Smartphone use WiFi or 3G mobile radio communication network and it has a feature that can access to internet whenever and anywhere. Also using smartphone application people can search arrival time of public transportation in real time and application is used in mobile banking and stock trading. Computer's function is replaced by smartphone so it involves important user's information such as financial and personal pictures, videos. Present smartphone security systems are not only too simple but the unlocking methods are spreading out covertly. I-phone is secured by using combination of number and character but USA's IT magazine Engadget reveal that it is easily unlocked by using combination with some part of number pad and buttons Android operation system is using pattern system and it is known as using 9 point dot so user can utilize various variable but according to Jonathan smith professor of University of Pennsylvania Android security system is easily unlocked by tracing fingerprint which remains on the smartphone screen. So both of Android and I-phone OS are vulnerable at security threat. Compared with problem of password and pattern finger recognition has advantage in security and possibility of loss. The reason why current using finger recognition smart phone, and device are not so popular is that there are many problem: not providing reasonable price, breaching human rights. In addition, finger recognition sensor is not providing reasonable price to customers but through continuous development of the smartphone and device, it will be more miniaturized and its price will fall. So once utilization of finger recognition is actively used in smartphone and if its utilization area broaden to financial transaction. Utilization of biometrics in smart device will be debated briskly. So in this thesis we will propose fingerprint numbering system which is combined fingerprint and password to fortify existing fingerprint recognition. Consisted by 4 number of password has this kind of problem so we will replace existing 4number password and pattern system and consolidate with fingerprint recognition and password reinforce security. In original fingerprint recognition system there is only 10 numbers of cases but if numbering to fingerprint we can consist of a password as a new method. Using proposed method user enter fingerprint as invested number to the finger. So attacker will have difficulty to collect all kind of fingerprint to forge and infer user's password. After fingerprint numbering, system can use the method of recognization of entering several fingerprint at the same time or enter fingerprint in regular sequence. In this thesis we adapt entering fingerprint in regular sequence and if in this system allow duplication when entering fingerprint. In case of allowing duplication a number of possible combinations is $\sum_{I=1}^{10}\;{_{10}P_i}$ and its total cases of number is 9,864,100. So by this method user retain security the other hand attacker will have a number of difficulties to conjecture and it is needed to obtain user's fingerprint thus this system will enhance user's security. This system is method not accept only one fingerprint but accept multiple finger in regular sequence. In this thesis we introduce the method in the environment of smartphone by using multiple numbered fingerprint enter to authorize user. Present smartphone authorization using pattern and password and fingerprint are exposed to high risk so if proposed system overcome delay time when user enter their finger to recognition device and relate to other biometric method it will have more concrete security. The problem should be solved after this research is reducing fingerprint's numbering time and hardware development should be preceded. If in the future using fingerprint public certification becomes popular. The fingerprint recognition in the smartphone will become important security issue so this thesis will utilize to fortify fingerprint recognition research.

An empirical study of evaluating the Korean firm's technological knowledge assets (한국 기업의 기술지식자산 평가에 대한 실증연구)

  • 윤찬병;하형철;박용태
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 1999.06a
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    • pp.85-97
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    • 1999
  • Being the new paradigm of "knowledge based economy", knowledge asset get to be the key to evaluate the firm's value. For a instance, Scandia firstly informed the intellectual capital report with its own financial statements in 1994. Some financial institutions have emphasized the roles of knowledge assets in the evaluating firm's value, too. But the concept of knowledge asset is so extensively defined that the result of evaluation is not as much reliable as financial statements. As previous studies examined the firm-specific cases, the sectoral pattern of knowledge asset has been ignored and it cause the difficulty in the empirical study. Moreover, the objectivity of study is ambiguous. Therefore, we regards knowledge asset as a technological knowledge asset. Which is related to R&D(research & development) and technology. Because this definition is more measurable than others and can play a frontier role in evaluating the knowledge asset. We extract the criteria related to the technological knowledge asset through the survey of 'Scandia' and other previous studies and add other criteria, which explain the Korean-specific environments. We gather data from "Technological Innovation"(STEPI, 1997, 1999) and "The bibliography of Korean R&D institutes"(KITA,1998) and "the survey of listed company"(Daewoo Securities, 1998. 1999). As the results of empirical study, the variables which explain the financial value of firms do not reflect the 'technological knowledge asset' well. It results from the factors as followings. Firstly, instead of stock price the proxy measurement related to 'knowledge asset' is needed. Secondly, the sample is biased to the large scale firms so we'll collect samples more broadly. Finally, the concept of 'technological knowledge asset' is too narrow to explain the value of firm. We expect the result of this empirical study gives contribution to the evaluation of firms' value more exactly.

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