• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stock Price Analysis

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A Study on Reversals after Stock Price Shock in the Korean Distribution Industry

  • Jeong-Hwan, LEE;Su-Kyu, PARK;Sam-Ho, SON
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to confirm whether stocks belonging to the distribution industry in Korea have reversals, following large daily stock price changes accompanied by large trading volumes. Research design, data, and methodology: We examined whether there were reversals after the event date when large-scale stock price changes appeared for the entire sample of distribution-related companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index from January 2004 to July 2022. In addition, we reviewed whether the reversals differed depending on abnormal trading volume on the event date. Using multiple regression analysis, we tested whether high trading volume had a significant effect on the cumulative rate of return after the event date. Results: Reversals were confirmed after the stock price shock in the Korean distribution industry and the return after the event date varied depending on the size of the trading volume on the event day. In addition, even after considering both company-specific and event-specific factors, the trading volume on the event day was found to have significant explanatory power on the cumulative rate of return after the event date. Conclusions: Reversals identified in this paper can be used as a useful tool for establishing a trading strategy.

Developing Pairs Trading Rules for Arbitrage Investment Strategy based on the Price Ratios of Stock Index Futures (주가지수 선물의 가격 비율에 기반한 차익거래 투자전략을 위한 페어트레이딩 규칙 개발)

  • Kim, Young-Min;Kim, Jungsu;Lee, Suk-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.202-211
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    • 2014
  • Pairs trading is a type of arbitrage investment strategy that buys an underpriced security and simultaneously sells an overpriced security. Since the 1980s, investors have recognized pairs trading as a promising arbitrage strategy that pursues absolute returns rather than relative profits. Thus, individual and institutional traders, as well as hedge fund traders in the financial markets, have an interest in developing a pairs trading strategy. This study proposes pairs trading rules (PTRs) created from a price ratio between securities (i.e., stock index futures) using rough set analysis. The price ratio involves calculating the closing price of one security and dividing it by the closing price of another security and generating Buy or Sell signals according to whether the ratio is increasing or decreasing. In this empirical study, we generate PTRs through rough set analysis applied to various technical indicators derived from the price ratio between KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 index futures. The proposed trading rules for pairs trading indicate high profits in the futures market.

A Study on the Operation of Distribution System for the Rationalization of Safety Stock under the Price Discount (가격할인하 안전재고 합리화를 위한 분배시스템 운영에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Byeong-Chan;Kim, Hong-Ki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this was to improve a transportation cost relation between Central Distribution Centers(CDCs) and Regional Distribution Centers(RDCs), to control inventory cost concerning safety stock for each service level, by reviewing distribution steps connecting CDCs and RDCs under the price discount. It was also to examine and compare operating costs for the following two alternative suggestions for setting the service standard as a counter measure for a stock-out of the distribution network system management. First, provision by dispersing the safety stock to the CDCs and RDCs; and second, exclusive provision of the safety stock only to the RDCs. The cost comparison analysis was made for each category of purchase costs, regular transportation costs, express transportation costs, and inventory holding costs.

Predicting stock movements based on financial news with systematic group identification (시스템적인 군집 확인과 뉴스를 이용한 주가 예측)

  • Seong, NohYoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2019
  • Because stock price forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, research in stock price prediction has been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into using structured data and using unstructured data. With structured data such as historical stock price and financial statements, past studies usually used technical analysis approach and fundamental analysis. In the big data era, the amount of information has rapidly increased, and the artificial intelligence methodology that can find meaning by quantifying string information, which is an unstructured data that takes up a large amount of information, has developed rapidly. With these developments, many attempts with unstructured data are being made to predict stock prices through online news by applying text mining to stock price forecasts. The stock price prediction methodology adopted in many papers is to forecast stock prices with the news of the target companies to be forecasted. However, according to previous research, not only news of a target company affects its stock price, but news of companies that are related to the company can also affect the stock price. However, finding a highly relevant company is not easy because of the market-wide impact and random signs. Thus, existing studies have found highly relevant companies based primarily on pre-determined international industry classification standards. However, according to recent research, global industry classification standard has different homogeneity within the sectors, and it leads to a limitation that forecasting stock prices by taking them all together without considering only relevant companies can adversely affect predictive performance. To overcome the limitation, we first used random matrix theory with text mining for stock prediction. Wherever the dimension of data is large, the classical limit theorems are no longer suitable, because the statistical efficiency will be reduced. Therefore, a simple correlation analysis in the financial market does not mean the true correlation. To solve the issue, we adopt random matrix theory, which is mainly used in econophysics, to remove market-wide effects and random signals and find a true correlation between companies. With the true correlation, we perform cluster analysis to find relevant companies. Also, based on the clustering analysis, we used multiple kernel learning algorithm, which is an ensemble of support vector machine to incorporate the effects of the target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with features of financial news of the target firm and its relevant firms. The results of this study are as follows. The results of this paper are as follows. (1) Following the existing research flow, we confirmed that it is an effective way to forecast stock prices using news from relevant companies. (2) When looking for a relevant company, looking for it in the wrong way can lower AI prediction performance. (3) The proposed approach with random matrix theory shows better performance than previous studies if cluster analysis is performed based on the true correlation by removing market-wide effects and random signals. The contribution of this study is as follows. First, this study shows that random matrix theory, which is used mainly in economic physics, can be combined with artificial intelligence to produce good methodologies. This suggests that it is important not only to develop AI algorithms but also to adopt physics theory. This extends the existing research that presented the methodology by integrating artificial intelligence with complex system theory through transfer entropy. Second, this study stressed that finding the right companies in the stock market is an important issue. This suggests that it is not only important to study artificial intelligence algorithms, but how to theoretically adjust the input values. Third, we confirmed that firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard (GICS) might have low relevance and suggested it is necessary to theoretically define the relevance rather than simply finding it in the GICS.

A Research on stock price prediction based on Deep Learning and Economic Indicators (거시지표와 딥러닝 알고리즘을 이용한 자동화된 주식 매매 연구)

  • Hong, Sunghyuck
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.11
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    • pp.267-272
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    • 2020
  • Macroeconomics are one of the indicators that are preceded and analyzed when analyzing stocks because it shows the movement of a country's economy as a whole. The overall economic situation at the national level, such as national income, inflation, unemployment, exchange rates, currency, interest rates, and balance of payments, has a great affect on the stock market, and economic indicators are actually correlated with stock prices. It is the main source of data for analysts to watch with interest and to determine buy and sell considering the impact on individual stock prices. Therefore, economic indicators that impact on the stock price are analyzed as leading indicators, and the stock price prediction is predicted through deep learning-based prediction, after that the actual stock price is compared. If you decide to buy or sell stocks by analysis of stock prediction, then stocks can be investments, not gambling. Therefore, this research was conducted to enable automated stock trading by using macro-indicators and deep learning algorithms in artificial intelligence.

Online news-based stock price forecasting considering homogeneity in the industrial sector (산업군 내 동질성을 고려한 온라인 뉴스 기반 주가예측)

  • Seong, Nohyoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • Since stock movements forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, studies related to stock price prediction have been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into structured data and unstructured data, and it is divided into technical analysis, fundamental analysis and media effect analysis in detail. In the big data era, research on stock price prediction combining big data is actively underway. Based on a large number of data, stock prediction research mainly focuses on machine learning techniques. Especially, research methods that combine the effects of media are attracting attention recently, among which researches that analyze online news and utilize online news to forecast stock prices are becoming main. Previous studies predicting stock prices through online news are mostly sentiment analysis of news, making different corpus for each company, and making a dictionary that predicts stock prices by recording responses according to the past stock price. Therefore, existing studies have examined the impact of online news on individual companies. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with only online news of Samsung Electronics. In addition, a method of considering influences among highly relevant companies has also been studied recently. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with news of Samsung Electronics and a highly related company like LG Electronics.These previous studies examine the effects of news of industrial sector with homogeneity on the individual company. In the previous studies, homogeneous industries are classified according to the Global Industrial Classification Standard. In other words, the existing studies were analyzed under the assumption that industries divided into Global Industrial Classification Standard have homogeneity. However, existing studies have limitations in that they do not take into account influential companies with high relevance or reflect the existence of heterogeneity within the same Global Industrial Classification Standard sectors. As a result of our examining the various sectors, it can be seen that there are sectors that show the industrial sectors are not a homogeneous group. To overcome these limitations of existing studies that do not reflect heterogeneity, our study suggests a methodology that reflects the heterogeneous effects of the industrial sector that affect the stock price by applying k-means clustering. Multiple Kernel Learning is mainly used to integrate data with various characteristics. Multiple Kernel Learning has several kernels, each of which receives and predicts different data. To incorporate effects of target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously, we used Multiple Kernel Learning. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with variables of financial news of the industrial group divided by the target firm, K-means cluster analysis. In order to prove that the suggested methodology is appropriate, experiments were conducted through three years of online news and stock prices. The results of this study are as follows. (1) We confirmed that the information of the industrial sectors related to target company also contains meaningful information to predict stock movements of target company and confirmed that machine learning algorithm has better predictive power when considering the news of the relevant companies and target company's news together. (2) It is important to predict stock movements with varying number of clusters according to the level of homogeneity in the industrial sector. In other words, when stock prices are homogeneous in industrial sectors, it is important to use relational effect at the level of industry group without analyzing clusters or to use it in small number of clusters. When the stock price is heterogeneous in industry group, it is important to cluster them into groups. This study has a contribution that we testified firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard have heterogeneity and suggested it is necessary to define the relevance through machine learning and statistical analysis methodology rather than simply defining it in the Global Industrial Classification Standard. It has also contribution that we proved the efficiency of the prediction model reflecting heterogeneity.

Time-Invariant Stock Movement Prediction After Golden Cross Using LSTM

  • Sumin Nam;Jieun Kim;ZoonKy Lee
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.8
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2023
  • The Golden Cross is commonly seen as a buy signal in financial markets, but its reliability for predicting stock price movements is limited due to market volatility. This paper introduces a time-invariant approach that considers the Golden Cross as a singular event. Utilizing LSTM neural networks, we forecast significant stock price changes following a Golden Cross occurrence. By comparing our approach with traditional time series analysis and using a confusion matrix for classification, we demonstrate its effectiveness in predicting post-event stock price trends. To conclude, this study proposes a model with a precision of 83%. By utilizing the model, investors can alleviate potential losses, rather than making buy decisions under all circumstances following a Golden Cross event.

Competition between Online Stock Message Boards in Predictive Power: Focused on Multiple Online Stock Message Boards

  • Kim, Hyun Mo;Park, Jae Hong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.526-541
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    • 2016
  • This research aims to examine the predictive power of multiple online stock message boards, namely, NAVER Finance and PAXNET, which are the most popular stock message boards in South Korea, in stock market activities. If predictive power exists, we then compare the predictive power of multiple online stock message boards. To accomplish the research purpose, we constructed a panel data set with close price, volatility, Spell out acronyms at first mention.PER, and number of posts in 40 companies in three months, and conducted a panel vector auto-regression analysis. The analysis results showed that the number of posts could predict stock market activities. In NAVER Finance, previous number of posts positively influenced volatility on the day. In PAXNET, previous number of posts positively influenced close price, volatility, and PER on the day. Second, we confirmed a difference in the prediction power for stock market activities between multiple online stock message boards. This research is limited by the fact that it only considered 40 companies and three stock market activities. Nevertheless, we found correlation between online stock message board and stock market activities and provided practical implications. We suggest that investors need to focus on specific online message boards to find interesting stock market activities.

Analysis and Design of Stock Item Buy/Sell Recommend System using AI Machine Learning Technology (인공지능 머신러닝 기술을 이용한 주식 종목 매수/매도 추천시스템의 분석 및 설계)

  • Cho, Byung-Ho
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.103-108
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    • 2021
  • It is difficult to predict an increase or decrease of stock price because of uncertainty. Researches for prediction of stock price using AI technology have been done for a long time. Recently stock buy/sell recommend programs called by Robot Advisor using AI machine learning technology are used. In this paper, to develop a stock buy/sell recommend system using AI technology, an core engine of this system is designed. An analysis and design method of a stock buy/sell recommend system software using AI machine learning technology will be presented by showing user requirement analysis using object-oriented analysis method, flowchart and screen design.

New Approaches for Evaluation of Brand Valuation Using Internet Data (인터넷 자료를 활용한 브랜드가치 평가의 새로운 접근)

  • 변종석
    • Survey Research
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.49-71
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    • 2003
  • The main purpose of this study was to propose new approaches for brand valuation using internet data. Data, which are necessary to evaluate the brand power, were consisted of the brand stock price data and the surveyed data through the internet. In this paper we examined the applicability of the internet data using correlation analysis between the brand stock price and the real stock price. We proposed new methods for relative evaluation of the brand power combining the brand stock price data with the surveyed data.

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