• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stock Movement Direction Prediction

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A Novel Parameter Initialization Technique for the Stock Price Movement Prediction Model

  • Nguyen-Thi, Thu;Yoon, Seokhoon
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.132-139
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    • 2019
  • We address the problem about forecasting the direction of stock price movement in the Korea market. Recently, the deep neural network is popularly applied in this area of research. In deep neural network systems, proper parameter initialization reduces training time and improves the performance of the model. Therefore, in our study, we propose a novel parameter initialization technique and apply this technique for the stock price movement prediction model. Specifically, we design a framework which consists of two models: a base model and a main prediction model. The base model constructed with LSTM is trained by using the large data which is generated by a large amount of the stock data to achieve optimal parameters. The main prediction model with the same architecture as the base model uses the optimal parameter initialization. Thus, the main prediction model is trained by only using the data of the given stock. Moreover, the stock price movements can be affected by other related information in the stock market. For this reason, we conducted our research with two types of inputs. The first type is the stock features, and the second type is a combination of the stock features and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) features. Empirical results conducted on the top five stocks in the KOSPI list in terms of market capitalization indicate that our approaches achieve better predictive accuracy and F1-score comparing to other baseline models.

Prediction of the Movement Directions of Index and Stock Prices Using Extreme Gradient Boosting (익스트림 그라디언트 부스팅을 이용한 지수/주가 이동 방향 예측)

  • Kim, HyoungDo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.623-632
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    • 2018
  • Both investors and researchers are attentive to the prediction of stock price movement directions since the accurate prediction plays an important role in strategic decision making on stock trading. According to previous studies, taken together, one can see that different factors are considered depending on stock markets and prediction periods. This paper aims to analyze what data mining techniques show better performance with some representative index and stock price datasets in the Korea stock market. In particular, extreme gradient boosting technique, proving itself to be the fore-runner through recent open competitions, is applied to the prediction problem. Its performance has been analyzed in comparison with other data mining techniques reported good in the prediction of stock price movement directions such as random forests, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. Through experiments with the index/price datasets of 12 years, it is identified that the gradient boosting technique is the best in predicting the movement directions after 1 to 4 days with a few partial equivalence to the other techniques.

Predicting The Direction of The Daily KOSPI Movement Using Neural Networks For ETF Trades (신경회로망을 이용한 일별 KOSPI 이동 방향 예측에 의한 ETF 매매)

  • Hwang, Heesoo
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2019
  • Neural networks have been used to predict the direction of stock index movement from past data. The conventional research that predicts the upward or downward movement of the stock index predicts a rise or fall even with small changes in the index. It is highly likely that losses will occur when trading ETFs by use of the prediction. In this paper, a neural network model that predicts the movement direction of the daily KOrea composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) to reduce ETF trading losses and earn more than a certain amount per trading is presented. The proposed model has outputs that represent rising (change rate in index ${\geq}{\alpha}$), falling (change rate ${\leq}-{\alpha}$) and neutral ($-{\alpha}$ change rate < ${\alpha}$). If the forecast is rising, buy the Leveraged Exchange Traded Fund (ETF); if it is falling, buy the inverse ETF. The hit ratio (HR) of PNN1 implemented in this paper is 0.720 and 0.616 in the learning and the evaluation respectively. ETF trading yields a yield of 8.386 to 16.324 %. The proposed models show the better ETF trading success rate and yield than the neural network models predicting KOSPI.

Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Predicting the Direction of KOSPI Securities (코스피 방향 예측을 위한 하이브리드 머신러닝 모델)

  • Hwang, Heesoo
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2021
  • In the past, there have been various studies on predicting the stock market by machine learning techniques using stock price data and financial big data. As stock index ETFs that can be traded through HTS and MTS are created, research on predicting stock indices has recently attracted attention. In this paper, machine learning models for KOSPI's up and down predictions are implemented separately. These models are optimized through a grid search of their control parameters. In addition, a hybrid machine learning model that combines individual models is proposed to improve the precision and increase the ETF trading return. The performance of the predictiion models is evaluated by the accuracy and the precision that determines the ETF trading return. The accuracy and precision of the hybrid up prediction model are 72.1 % and 63.8 %, and those of the down prediction model are 79.8% and 64.3%. The precision of the hybrid down prediction model is improved by at least 14.3 % and at most 20.5 %. The hybrid up and down prediction models show an ETF trading return of 10.49%, and 25.91%, respectively. Trading inverse×2 and leverage ETF can increase the return by 1.5 to 2 times. Further research on a down prediction machine learning model is expected to increase the rate of return.

The Analysis on the Relationship between Firms' Exposures to SNS and Stock Prices in Korea (기업의 SNS 노출과 주식 수익률간의 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Taehwan;Jung, Woo-Jin;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.233-253
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    • 2014
  • Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

Study on the factors that affect the fluctuations in the price of real estate for a digital economy (디지털 경제에 부동산 가격의 변동에 영향을 주는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il;Lee, Ok-Dong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.11
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2013
  • As people invest most of their asset in real estate, there is high interest in changing in housing and real estate prices in the future for a digital economy. Various variables are affecting the housing and real estate market. Among them, four variables : households, productive population, interest rate and index price are chosen and analyzed representatively. This study is aimed to build decision model of apartment prices in Seoul empirically. From the analysis result the stock index is the only variable which is significant statistically to apartments in Seoul. From this study, the households and productive population show the same direction as shown in the previous studies before but not significant statistically. Among the independent variables, the stock index is chosen as a major variable of determinant of Seoul apartment price. From the result of the research, prediction of stock market should be preceded to forecast the movement of housing and real estate market in the future.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.