• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stock Market Index

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Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price Uncertainty on Industrial Stock Market -A Quantile Regression Approach - (분위수회귀분석을 이용한 유가 변동성에 대한 산업별 주식시장의 이질적 반응 분석)

  • Joo, Young-Chan;Park, Sung-Yong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2019
  • This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of crude oil price uncertainty on industrial stock returns under different market conditions (bearish and bullish stock markets). We consider a quantile regression method using monthly oil volatility index, KOSPI and 22 industrial stock indices from May 2007 to February 2019. Especially, we take care of the positive and negative changes of the oil volatility index to analyze asymmetric effects of the oil price uncertainty for the bearish and bullish stock market conditions. During the bearish markets, the oil volatility index has relatively strong statistically significant negative effects on the industrial stock returns. These effects gradually decrease when the market conditions became more bullish markets. In particular, positive changes in the oil volatility index yields a further significant decrease in 12 industrial stock returns during the extreme bearish markets. Moreover, during the bullish markets, negative changes in the oil volatility index have statistically significant negative effects on the 12 industrial stock returns. From the empirical results, we see that participants of the Korean stock market are sensitive to bad news in a recession.

Country-Level Governance Quality and Stock Market Performance of GCC Countries

  • MODUGU, Kennedy Prince;DEMPERE, Juan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.185-195
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    • 2020
  • This study examines the association between governance quality at country level and stock market performance. Specifically, the study investigates the influence of control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence, rule of law, regulatory quality, and voice and accountability on all-share index of the stock markets of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This study is anchored on two theories - the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and Institutional Theory. The study employs panel data spanning from 2006 to 2017. The findings show that political stability and absence of violence and rule of law exhibit a significant positive impact on stock market performance, while regulatory quality and voice and accountability have a significant, but negative relationship with stock market performance. The results imply that quality of governance in terms of rule of law and political stability devoid of violence have strong impact on stock market returns. Similarly, improved stock market returns are largely dependent on the efficiency of the institutional environment of market as investors are always wary of the inherent risks associated with the uncertainty of the market. This study has crucial policy implications for the government of the GCC countries and stock market participants.

Macro-Economic Factors Affecting the Vietnam Stock Price Index: An Application of the ARDL Model

  • DAO, Hoang Tuan;VU, Le Hang;PHAM, Thanh Lam;NGUYEN, Kim Trang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2022
  • Using the ARDL approach, this study examined the impact of macro factors on Vietnam's stock market in the short and long run from 2010 to 2021. The State Bank of Vietnam and the International Monetary Fund provided time series data for this study. Research results show that in the long run, money supply and exchange rate respectively affect the stock market. The money supply had a positive effect on the VN-Index, while the exchange rate showed the opposite effect. However, the study did not find a relationship between world oil price and interest rates on VN-Index in the long run. On the other hand, in the short term, there are relationships between variables; specifically, interest rates and exchange rates have a negative impact on the VN-Index, while the world oil price and the fluctuation of money supply M2 of the previous one and two months showed an impact in the same direction on this index. The differences in the regression results on the impact of exchange rate and oil price on the VN-Index compared to previous studies come from the characteristics of Vietnam's stock market, with the large capitalization of companies in the oil and gas sector, and the structure of Vietnam's economy with export heavily depends on FDI sector.

Empirical Analysis on Profit and Stability of Korean Reverse Convertible Funds

  • Shin, Yang-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.1073-1080
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    • 2008
  • Reverse convertible fund is a method of investment assuring both profit and stability in an unstable stock market, and shares characteristics of a hedge fund and derivative securities. This study analyzes empirically whether reverse convertible funds can indeed serve as a new method in variable stock market environment to provide high profit with low risks especially in the Korean stock market.

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Expiration-Day Effects: The Korean Evidence (주가지수 선물과 옵션의 만기일이 주식시장에 미치는 영향: 개별 종목 분석을 중심으로)

  • Choe, Hyuk;Eom, Yun-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.41-79
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    • 2007
  • This study examines the expiration-day effects of stock index futures and options in the Korean stock market. The so-called 'expiration-day effects', which are the abnormal stock price movements on derivatives expiration days, arise mainly from cash settlement. Index arbitragers have to bear the risk of their positions unless they liquidate their index stocks on the expiration day. If many arbitragers execute large buy or sell orders on the expiration day, abnormal trading volumes are likely to be observed. If a lot of arbitragers unwind positions in the same direction, temporary trading imbalances induce abnormal stock market volatility. By contrast, if some information arrives at market, the abnormal trading activity must be considered a normal process of price discovery. Stoll and Whaley(1987) investigated the aggregate price and volume effects of the S&P 500 index on the expiration day. In a related study, Stoll and Whaley(1990) found a similarity between the price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading and of the stocks that are not. Thus far, there have been few studies about the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market. While previous Korean studies use the KOSPI 200 index data, we analyze the price and trading volume behavior of individual stocks as well as the index. Analyzing individual stocks is important for two reasons. First, stock index is a market average. Consequently, it cannot reflect the behavior of many individual stocks. For example, if the expiration-day effects are mainly related to a specific group, it cannot be said that the expiration of derivatives itself destabilizes the stock market. Analyzing individual stocks enables us to investigate the scope of the expiration-day effects. Second, we can find the relationship between the firm characteristics and the expiration-day effects. For example, if the expiration-day effects exist in large stocks not belonging to the KOSPI 200 index, program trading may not be related to the expiration-day effects. The examination of individual stocks has led us to the cause of the expiration-day effects. Using the intraday data during the period May 3, 1996 through December 30, 2003, we first examine the price and volume effects of the KOSPI 200 and NON-KOSPI 200 index following the Stoll and Whaley(1987) methodology. We calculate the NON-KOSPI 200 index by using the returns and market capitalization of the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 index. In individual stocks, we divide KOSPI 200 stocks by size into three groups and match NON-KOSPI 200 stocks with KOSPI 200 stocks having the closest firm characteristics. We compare KOSPI 200 stocks with NON-KOSPI 200 stocks. To test whether the expiration-day effects are related to order imbalances or new information, we check price reversals on the next day. Finally, we perform a cross-sectional regression analysis to elaborate on the impact of the firm characteristics on price reversals. The main results seem to support the expiration-day effects, especially on stock index futures expiration days. The price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading is shown to have price effects, abnormal return volatility, and large volumes during the last half hour of trading on the expiration day. Return reversals are also found in the KOSPI 200 index and stocks. However, there is no evidence of abnormal trading volume, or price reversals in the NON-KOSPI 200 index and stocks. The expiration-day effects are proportional to the size of stocks and the nearness to the settlement time. Since program trading is often said to be concentrated in high capitalization stocks, these results imply that the expiration-day effects seem to be associated with program trading and the settlement price determination procedure. In summary, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market do not exist in all stocks, but in large capitalization stocks belonging to the KOSPI 200 index. Additionally, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market are generally due, not to information, but to trading imbalances.

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A Prediction of Stock Price Through the Big-data Analysis (인터넷 뉴스 빅데이터를 활용한 기업 주가지수 예측)

  • Yu, Ji Don;Lee, Ik Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.154-161
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    • 2018
  • This study conducted to predict the stock market prices based on the assumption that internet news articles might have an impact and effect on the rise and fall of stock market prices. The internet news articles were tested to evaluate the accuracy by comparing predicted values of the actual stock index and the forecasting models of the companies. This paper collected stock news from the internet, and analyzed and identified the relationship with the stock price index. Since the internet news contents consist mainly of unstructured texts, this study used text mining technique and multiple regression analysis technique to analyze news articles. A company H as a representative automobile manufacturing company was selected, and prediction models for the stock price index of company H was presented. Thus two prediction models for forecasting the upturn and decline of H stock index is derived and presented. Among the two prediction models, the error value of the prediction model (1) is low, and so the prediction performance of the model (1) is relatively better than that of the prediction model (2). As the further research, if the contents of this study are supplemented by real artificial intelligent investment decision system and applied to real investment, more practical research results will be able to be developed.

The Effect of Non-Oil Diversification on Stock Market Performance: The Role of FDI and Oil Price in the United Arab Emirates

  • BANERJEE, Rachna;MAJUMDAR, Sudipa
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2021
  • UAE has rapidly developed into one of the leading global financial hubs, with significant transformations in its stock exchanges. In its attempt at economic diversification in the last two decades, the country has also taken a lead in the GCC region in introducing extensive reforms to attract FDI to the Emirates. However, oil price volatilities have posed a significant challenge to all oil-exporting countries. The main aim of this study is to explore the impact of economic diversification and oil price on the UAE stock market. The study applies Granger Causality and Vector Autoregressive Model on monthly Abu Dhabi stock exchange index, Dubai Fateh crude oil spot price, and FDI inflows during 2001-19. The short-term interbank rate has been included as a monetary policy variable. The results show a substantial difference between the two phases of reforms. Oil price and Abu Dhabi stock index show bidirectional relationship during 2001-09 but no causality was found during 2010-19. Furthermore, the second phase was characterized by unidirectional causation from FDI to ADX index. This study highlights FDI inflows as a key driver of stock market performance during the last decade and emphasizes the success of the intense reforms in the UAE initiated for the diversification of its economy.

The Introduction of KOSPI 200 Stock Price Index Futures and the Asymmetric Volatility in the Stock Market (KOSPI 200 주가지수선물 도입과 주식시장의 비대칭적 변동성)

  • Byun, Jong-Cook;Jo, Jung-Il
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.191-212
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    • 2003
  • Recently, there is a growing body of literature that suggests that information inefficiency is one of the causes of the asymmetric volatility. If this explanation for the asymmetric volatility is appropriate, then innovations, such as the introduction of futures, may be expected to impact the asymmetric volatility of stock market. As transaction costs and margin requirements in the futures market are lower than those in the spot market, new information is transmitted to futures prices more quickly and affects spot prices through arbitrage trading with spots. Also, the merit of the futures market may attract noise traders away from the spot market to the futures market. This study examines the impact of futures on the asymmetry of stock market volatility. If the asymmetric volatility is significant lower post-futures and exist in the futures market, it has validity that the asymmetric volatility is caused by information inefficiency in the spot market. The data examined are daily logarithmic returns on KOSPI 200 stock price index from January 4, 1993 to December 26, 2000. To examine the existence of the asymmetric volatility in the futures market, logarithmic returns on KOSPI 200 futures are used from May 4, 1996 to December 26, 2000. We used a conditional mode of TGARCH(threshold GARCH) of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkel(1993). Pre-futures the spot market exhibits significant asymmetric responses of volatility to news and post-futures asymmetries are significantly lower, irrespective of bear market and bull market. The results suggest that the introduction of stock index futures has an effect on the asymmetric volatility of the spot market and are inconsistent with leverage being the sole explanation of asymmetry. However, it is found that the volatility of futures is not so asymmetric as expected.

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Two-Stage Forecasting Using Change-Point Detection and Artificial Neural Networks for Stock Price Index (주가지수예측에서의 변환시점을 반영한 이단계 신경망 예측모형)

  • Oh, Kyong-Joo;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.99-111
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    • 2001
  • The prediction of stock price index is a very difficult problem because of the complexity of stock market data. It has been studied by a number of researchers since they strongly affect other economic and financial parameters. The movement of stock price index has a series of change points due to the strategies of institutional investors. This study presents a two-stage forecasting model of stock price index using change-point detection and artificial neural networks. The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to use them in stock price index forecasting. First, the proposed model tries to detect successive change points in stock price index. Then, the model forecasts the change-point group with the backpropagation neural network(BPN). Finally, the model forecasts the output with BPN. This study then examines the predictability of the integrated neural network model for stock price index forecasting using change-point detection.

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An Empirical Inquiry into Psychological Heuristics in the Context of the Korean Distribution Industry within the Stock Market

  • Jeong-Hwan LEE;Se-Jun LEE;Sam-Ho SON
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This paper aims to assess psychological heuristics' effectiveness on cumulative returns after significant stock price changes. Specifically, it compares availability and anchoring heuristics' empirical validity due to conflicting stock return predictions. Research Design, Data, and Methodology: This paper analyzes stock price changes of Korean distribution industry stocks in the KOSPI market from January 2004 to July 2022, where daily fluctuations exceed 10%. It evaluates availability heuristics using daily KOSPI index changes and tests anchoring heuristics using 52-week high and low stock prices as reference points. Results: As a result of the empirical analysis, stock price reversals did not consistently appear alongside changes in the daily KOSPI index. By contrast, stock price drifts consistently appeared around the 52-week highest stock price and 52-week lowest stock price. The result of the multiple regression analysis which controlled for both company-specific and event-specific variables supported the anchoring heuristics. Conclusions: For stocks related to the Korean distribution industry in the KOSPI market, the anchoring heuristics theory provides a consistent explanation for stock returns after large-scale stock price fluctuations that initially appear to be random movements.