• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.17 no.E4
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• pp.163-168
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• 2001

Estimating the emission rate of VOCs from a gasoline industry at national level can be a challenging take even though the estimation is mean-based. However, using the procedures in the US EPA AP-42 guidelines, it is possible to approximate the mean industry emission rate once enough data are available. However, this estimate can be misled in the sense that there exist many stochastic factors in the EPA\\`s estimation procedures and also throughout the marketing channels of gasoline industry. Addressing the stochasticity problem in EPA\\`s procedure is hard to tackle because the detailed data needed to execute the estimation are not usually available even from refiners. Instead, this research tries to stay focused on the second type of stochasticity issue, raised from the mean0based metrological and marketing practice data collected from the 4 major refiners. To do so emission raters from each marketing channels (8 marketing points by 3 transportation types and by storage facilities of 4 refiners) are estimated monthly, following AP-42 procedures and using Tank 4.0. Once these estimates are acquired, the distribution of VOC emission rate for each marketing channel of all 4 refiners is estimated through simulation method using @Risk. The mean-based emission rates are weighted by company quantities to estimate the emission rate from the whole gasoline industry. Simple economic implication is provided, based on the result. This study found that, on the mean-bases, about 0.66% of gasoline marketed are evaporated into air. Considering the stochasticity in the estimation, about 90% of simulation results fell into the range of 0.65 to 0.68%. For 90% chance, the estimated economic loss is $54.65 million to $57.17 million, not counting the cost caused by air quality degradation and associated health impact.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.25 no.10
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• pp.869-873
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• 2024

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.103-107
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• 2009

We investigated colonization and extinction patterns in a meta population of the gold-spotted pond frog (Rana planeyi ehoseniea) near the Korea National University of Education, Chungbuk, Korea, by surveying the frogs in the nine occupied habitat patches in the study area four times per breeding season for three years (2006$\sim$2008) and recording whether the patches were occupied by frogs as well as how many frogs were calling in the patches. We then developed five a priori year-specific models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The models predicted that: 1) probabilities of colonization and local extinction of the frogs were better explained by year-dependent models than by constant models, 2) there are high local extinction and low colonization probabilities, 3) approximately 31% number of patches will be occupied at equilibrium, and 4) that considerable variation in occupation rate should occur over a 30-year period, due to demographic stochasticity (in our model, the occupation rate ranged from 0.222 to 0.889). Our results suggest that colonization is important in this metapopulation system, which is governed by mainly stochastic components, and that more constructive conservation effects are needed to increase local colonization rates.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.71 no.2
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• pp.197-210
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• 2019

Probabilistic buckling behavior of sandwich panel considering random system parameters using a radial basis function (RBF) approach is presented in this paper. The random system properties result in an uncertain response of the sandwich structure. The buckling load of laminated sandwich panel is obtained by employing higher-order-zigzag theory (HOZT) coupled with RBF and probabilistic finite element (FE) model. The in-plane displacement variation of core as well as facesheet is considered to be cubic while transverse displacement is considered to be quadratic within the core and constant in the facesheets. Individual and combined stochasticity in all elemental input parameters (like facesheets thickness, ply-orientation angle, core thickness and properties of material) are considered to know the effect of different degree of stochasticity, ply- orientation angle, boundary conditions, core thickness, number of laminates, and material properties on global response of the structure. In order to achieve the computational efficiency, RBF model is employed as a surrogate to the original finite element model. The stiffness matrix of global response is stored in a single array using skyline technique and simultaneous iteration technique is used to solve the stochastic buckling equations.

• Journal of the Korean Physical Society
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• v.73 no.11
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• pp.1774-1786
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• 2018

Phenotypic variation among clones (individuals with identical genes, i.e. isogenic individuals) has been recognized both theoretically and experimentally. We investigate the effects of phenotypic variation on evolutionary dynamics of a population. In a population, the individuals are assumed to be haploid with two genotypes : one genotype shows phenotypic variation and the other does not. We use an individual-based Moran model in which the individuals reproduce according to their fitness values and die at random. The evolutionary dynamics of an individual-based model is formulated in terms of a master equation and is approximated as the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) and the coupled non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with multiplicative noise. We first analyze the deterministic part of the SDEs to obtain the fixed points and determine the stability of each fixed point. We find that there is a discrete phase transition in the population distribution when the probability of reproducing the fitter individual is equal to the critical value determined by the stability of the fixed points. Next, we take demographic stochasticity into account and analyze the FPE by eliminating the fast variable to reduce the coupled two-variable FPE to the single-variable FPE. We derive a quasi-stationary distribution of the reduced FPE and predict the fixation probabilities and the mean fixation times to absorbing states. We also carry out numerical simulations in the form of the Gillespie algorithm and find that the results of simulations are consistent with the analytic predictions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.419-422
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• 2005

Global bifurcations and chaos in modal interactions of an imperfect circular plate with one-to-one internal resonance are investigated. The case of primary resonance, in which an excitation frequency is near natural frequencies, is considered. The damping force is not included in the analysis. The renormalization-group technique for KAM tori is used to obtain the criteria for large-scale stochasticity in the system.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.162-177
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• 2020

Background: Ecologists have achieved much progress in the study of mechanisms that maintain species coexistence and diversity. In this paper, we reviewed a wide range of past research related to these topics, focusing on five theoretical bodies: (1) coexistence by niche differentiation, (2) coexistence without niche differentiation, (3) coexistence along environmental stress gradients, (4) coexistence under non-equilibrium versus equilibrium conditions, and (5) modern perspectives. Results: From the review, we identified that there are few models that can be generally and confidently applicable to different ecological systems. This problem arises mainly because most theories have not been substantiated by enough empirical research based on field data to test various coexistence hypotheses at different spatial scales. We also found that little is still known about the mechanisms of species coexistence under harsh environmental conditions. This is because most previous models treat disturbance as a key factor shaping community structure, but they do not explicitly deal with stressful systems with non-lethal conditions. We evaluated the mainstream ideas of niche differentiation and stochasticity for the coexistence of plant species across salt marsh creeks in southwestern Denmark. The results showed that diversity indices, such as Shannon-Wiener diversity, richness, and evenness, decreased with increasing surface elevation and increased with increasing niche overlap and niche breadth. The two niche parameters linearly decreased with increasing elevation. These findings imply a substantial influence of an equalizing mechanism that reduces differences in relative fitness among species in the highly stressful environments of the marsh. We propose that species evenness increases under very harsh conditions if the associated stress is not lethal. Finally, we present a conceptual model of patterns related to the level of environmental stress and niche characteristics along a microhabitat gradient (i.e., surface elevation). Conclusions: The ecology of stressful systems with non-lethal conditions will be increasingly important as ongoing global-scale climate change extends the period of chronic stresses that are not necessarily fatal to inhabiting plants. We recommend that more ecologists continue this line of research.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.31 no.3_4
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• pp.457-467
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• 2013

There exist many deterministic models for signaling pathways in systems biology. However the models do not consider the stochastic properties of the pathways, which means the models fit well with experimental data in certain situations but poorly in others. Incorporating stochasticity into deterministic models is one way to handle this problem. In this paper the way is used to produce stochastic models based on the deterministic differential equations for the published extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway. We consider strong convergence and stability of the numerical approximations for the stochastic models.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.767-785
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• 2015

The stochastic finite element method is employed to obtain a stochastic dynamic model of angled beams subjected to impact loads when uncertain material properties are described by random fields. Using the perturbation technique in conjunction with a precise time integration method, a random analysis approach is developed for efficient analysis of random elastic waves. Formulas for the mean, variance and covariance of displacement, strain and stress are introduced. Statistics of displacement and stress waves is analyzed and effects of bend angle and material stochasticity on wave propagation are studied. It is found that the elastic wave correlation in the angled section is the most significant. The mean, variance and covariance of the stress wave amplitude decrease with an increase in bend angle. The standard deviation of the beam material density plays an important role in longitudinal displacement wave covariance.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.381-394
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• 2003

While constructing multistorey buildings with reinforced concrete framed structures it is a common practice to provide parking space for vehicles at the ground floor level. This floor will generally consist of open frames without any infilled walls and is called an open-storey. From a post disaster damage survey carried out, it was noticed that during the January 26, 2001 Bhuj (Gujarat, India) earthquake, a large number of reinforced concrete framed buildings with open-storey at ground floor level, suffered extensive damage and in some cases catastrophic collapse. This has brought into sharp focus the need to carry out systematic studies on the seismic vulnerability of such buildings. Determination of vulnerability requires realistic structural response estimations taking into account the stochasticity in the loading and the system parameters. The stochastic finite element method can be effectively used to model the random fields while carrying out such studies. This paper presents the details of stochastic finite element analysis of a five-storey three-bay reinforced concrete framed structure with open-storey subjected to standard seismic excitation. In the present study, only the stochasticity in the system parameters is considered. The stochastic finite element method used for carrying out the analysis is based on perturbation technique. Each random field representing the stochastic geometry/material property is discretised into correlated random variables using spatial averaging technique. The uncertainties in geometry and material properties are modelled using the first two moments of the corresponding parameters. In evaluating the stochastic response, the cross-sectional area and Young' modulus are considered as independent random fields. To study the influence of correlation length of random fields, different correlation lengths are considered for random field discretisation. The spatial expectations and covariances for displacement response at any time instant are obtained as the output. The effect of open-storey is modelled by suitably considering the stiffness of infilled walls in the upper storey using cross bracing. In order to account for changes in soil conditions during strong motion earthquakes, both fixed and hinged supports are considered. The results of the stochastic finite element based seismic analysis of reinforced concrete framed structures reported in this paper demonstrate the importance of considering the effect of open-storey with appropriate support conditions to estimate the realistic response of buildings subjected to earthquakes.