• 물과 미래
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.99-107
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• 1990

수자원 개발계획 및 목공구조물의 합리적 설계를 위해서는 과거의 수문관측자료에 의거한 해석이 필요하며, 일반적인 수문현상은 무작위적인 인자가 포함되기 때문에 이를 고려한 통계적 기법, 즉 추계학적 해석기법이 필요하다고 하겠다. 본 연구에서는 남한강 상류의 동일유역 4개 지점(단양, 정선, 영월, 평창)의 월유량 자료를 일변량 AR(1), AR(2)모형과 다변량 AR(1), AR(2)모형에 적용하여 각 모형의 통계적 특성치를 분석하고, 월유량을 모의발생시켜, 일변량 모형과 다변량 모형을 비교하였다. 각각의 모형에 의한 모의발생 계열의 비교, 분석을 통하여 볼 때, 단일지점만을 고려하는 일변량 모형에 비해 지점간의 공선형성을 고려하는 다변량 모형이 동일유역의 월유량 해석에 있어서 더 적합함을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제16권10호
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• pp.992-1000
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• 1991

현대는 생산성 향상을 위하여 이런 방법이 사용되는데 그중 공장 측면에서는 공장 자동화를 함으로서 생산성 향상을 기하는 방법을 사용하고 있다. 공장 자동화의 첫 단계는 각 단위 공장의 자동화이다. 우리나라 현황을 보면 소수의 발전된 공장의 경우 라인의 자동화가 구축되어 있으며 대다수의 기업은 단위 공정의 자동화 장치가 설치되고 있다. 그러나 현재 설치된 장비로서 더 이상의 생산성을 높이기 위해서는 각 단위 공정간의 협력 또는 공조체계 및 사무자동화와의 인계가 이루어져야 한다. 이에 본 논문에서 제시된 공정 감시 제어 SYSTEM은 각 공정의 자동화를 이루고 각 단위 공장의 자동화를 이루고 각 단위 공정을 MAIN COMPUTER와 연결하여 모든 공정을 MASTER SYSTEM화하여 통계처리 및 감시 기능을 하고자 하여 생산성을 향상시키고자 한다.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.1154-1162
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• 2014

In the restructured electricity market, Performance-Based Regulation (PBR) regime has been introduced to the distribution network. To ensure the network stability, this regime is used along with quality regulations. Quality regulation impose new financial risks on distribution system operators (DSOs). The poor quality of the network will result in reduced revenues for DSOs. The mentioned financial risks depend on the quality indices of the system. Based on annual variation of these indices, the cost of quality regulation will also vary. In this paper with regard to reclosing fault in distribution network, we develop a risk-based method to assess the financial risks caused by quality regulation for DSOs. Furthermore, in order to take the stochastic behavior of the distribution network and quality indices variations into account, time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used. Using the proposed risk method, the effect of taking reclosing time into account will be examined on system quality indicators and the cost of quality regulation in Swedish rural reliability test system (SRRTS). The results show that taking reclosing fault into consideration, affects the system quality indicators, particularly annual average interruption frequency index of the system (SAIFI). Moreover taking reclosing fault into consideration also affects the quality regulations cost. Therefore, considering reclosing time provides a more realistic viewpoint about the financial risks arising from quality regulation for DSOs.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제32권11호
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• pp.989-995
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• 2015

In the literature, various stochastic anomaly detection methods, such as limit checking and PCA-based approaches, have been applied to weld defect detection. However, it is still a challenge to identify meaningful defect patterns from very limited sensor signals of laser welding, characterized by intermittent, discontinuous, very short, and non-stationary random signals. In order to effectively analyze the physical characteristics of laser weld signals: plasma intensity, weld pool temperature, and back reflection, we first transform the raw data of laser weld signals into the form of event logs. This is done by multidimensional discretization and event-codification, after which the event logs are decoded to extract weld defect patterns by $Na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayes classifier. The performance of the proposed method is examined in comparison with the commercial solution of PRECITEC's LWM$^{TM}$ and the most recent PCA-based detection method. The results show higher performance of the proposed method in terms of sensitivity (1.00) and specificity (0.98).

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.15-38
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• 2010

In order to predict the shear strengths of reinforced concrete beams, many deterministic models have been developed based on rules of mechanics and on experimental test results. While the constant and variable angle truss models are known to provide reliable bases and to give reasonable predictions for the shear strengths of members with shear reinforcement, in the case of members without shear reinforcement, even advanced models with complicated procedures may show lack of accuracy or lead to fairly different predictions from other similar models. For this reason, many research efforts have been made for more accurate predictions, which resulted in important recent publications. This paper develops probabilistic shear strength models for reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement based on deterministic shear strength models, understanding of shear transfer mechanisms and influential parameters, and experimental test results reported in the literature. Using a Bayesian parameter estimation method, the biases of base deterministic models are identified as algebraic functions of input parameters and the errors of the developed models remaining after the bias-correction are quantified in a stochastic manner. The proposed probabilistic models predict the shear strengths with improved accuracy and help incorporate the model uncertainties into vulnerability estimations and risk-quantified designs.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.344-352
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• 2019

Marine production strings are continuously affected by unstable internal fluid during operation. In this paper, the structural governing equation for marine production string self-induced vibration is constructed. A finite element analysis model is established based on Euler-Bernoulli theory and solved by the Newmark method. Furthermore, based on reliability theory, a self-design procedure is developed to determine the operability envelope for marine production string self-induced vibration. Case studies show: the response frequency of the production strings is consistent with the excitation frequency under harmonic fluctuation and mainly determined by the first-order natural frequency under stochastic fluctuation. The operability envelope for marine production string self-induced vibration is a near symmetrical trapezium. With the increasing of natural gas output, the permissible fluctuation coefficient dramatically decreases. A reasonable centralizer spacing, increasing top tension, and controlling natural gas output are of great significance to the risk control in marine production string operation.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.65-74
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• 2020

Many of companies have made significant improvements for globalization and competitive business environment The supply chain management has received many attentions in the area of that business environment. The purpose of this study is to generate realistic production and distribution planning in the supply chain network. The planning model determines the best schedule using operation sequences and routing to deliver. To solve the problem a hybrid approach involving a genetic algorithm (GA) and computer simulation is proposed. This proposed approach is for: (1) selecting the best machine for each operation, (2) deciding the sequence of operation to product and route to deliver, and (3) minimizing the completion time for each order. This study developed mathematical model for production, distribution, production-distribution and proposed GA-Simulation solution procedure. The results of computational experiments for a simple example of the supply chain network are given and discussed to validate the proposed approach. It has been shown that the hybrid approach is powerful for complex production and distribution planning in the manufacturing supply chain network. The proposed approach can be used to generate realistic production and distribution planning considering stochastic natures in the actual supply chain and support decision making for companies.

• 한국추진공학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.42-49
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• 2021

얼마나 쉽게 연소불안정 해지는지에 대한 척도로서, 작동 안정성 여유를 예측하기 위해 로켓연소기시스템의 열음향 불안정을 검토하였다. 연소기 시스템의 동적거동 특성파악을 위해 연소성능시험 중 측정한 연소기의 동압 데이터를 바탕으로 시간이 지남에 따라 시스템이 안정해지는지를 결정하는 파라미터로서 성장속도 계수를 구하였다. 파라미터 추출은 시계열 압력데이터를 주파수 도메인으로 전환하여 관심모드의 성장속도나 감쇠계수를 도출하는 방법을 우선 검토하였으며, 스토캐스틱 해석의 경우에는 압력진동의 진폭 엔벨롭으로 부터 압력진폭 PDF를 추출했다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.641-652
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• 2022

High-rise structures prone to large vibrations under the action of strong winds, resulting in fatigue damage of the structural components and the foundation. A novel compound damping cable system (CDCS) is proposed to suppress the excessive vibrations. CDCS uses tailored double cable system with increased tensile stiffness as the connecting device, and makes use of the relative motion between the high-rise structure and the ground to drive the damper to move back-and-forth, dissipating the vibration mechanical energy of the high-rise structure so as to decaying the excessive vibration. Firstly, a third-order differential equation for the free vibration of high-rise structure with CDCS is established, and its closed form solution is obtained by the root formulas of cubic equation (Shengjin's formulas). Secondly, the analytical solution is validated by a laboratory model experiment. Thirdly, parametric analysis is conducted to investigate how the parameters affect the vibration control performance. Finally, the dynamic responses of the high-rise structure with CDCS under harmonic and stochastic excitations are calculated and its vibration mitigation performance is further evaluated. The results show that the CDCS can provide a large equivalent additional damping ratio for the vibrating structures, thus suppressing the excessive vibration effectively. It is anticipated that the CDCS can be used as a good alternative energy dissipation system for vibration control of high-rise structures.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.222-229
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• 2022

Although stochastic programming and feedback control approaches could efficiently mitigate the overdue risks caused by inherent uncertainties in ground conditions, the lack of formal representations of planners' rationales for resource allocation still prevents planners from applying these approaches due to the inability to consider comprehensive resource allocation policies for hard rock tunnel projects. To overcome the limitations, the authors developed an ontology that represents the project duration estimation rationales, considering the impacts of ground conditions, excavation methods, project states, resources (i.e., given equipment fleet), and resource allocation policies (RAPs). This ontology consists of 5 main classes with 22 subclasses. It enables planners to explicitly and comprehensively represent the necessary information to rapidly and consistently estimate the excavation durations during construction. 10 rule sets (i.e., policies) are considered and categorized into two types: non-progress-related and progress-related policies. In order to provide simplified information about the remaining durations of phases for progress-related policies, the ontology also represents encoding principles. The estimation of excavation schedules is carried out based on a hypothetical example considering two types of policies. The estimation results reveal the feasibility, potential for flexibility, and comprehensiveness of the developed ontology. Further research to improve the duration estimation methodology is warranted.