• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stochastic order

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Development of High-Precision Hybrid Geoid Model in Korea (한국의 고정밀 합성지오이드 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Dong-Ha;Yun, Hong-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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    • 2010.04a
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    • pp.429-431
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    • 2010
  • The hybrid geoid model should be determined by fitting the gravimetric geoid to the geometric geoid which were presented the local vertical level. Therefore, it is necessary to find firstly the optimal scheme for improving the accuracy of gravimetric geoid in order to development the high-precision hybrid geoid model. Through finding the optimal scheme for determining the each part of gravimetric geoid, the most accurate gravimetric geoid model in Korea will be developed when the EIGEN-CG03C model to degree 360, 4-band spherical FFT and RTM reduction methods were used for determining the long, middle and short-frequency part of gravimetric geoid respectively. Finally, we developed the hybrid geoid model around Korea by correcting to gravimetric geoid with the correction term. The correction term is modelled using the difference between GPS/Levelling derived geoidal heights and gravimetric geoidal heights. The stochastic model used in the calculation of correction term is the LSC technique based on second-order Markov covariance function. 503 GPS/Levelling data were used to model the correction term. The degree of LSC fitting to the final hybrid geoid model in Korea was evaluated as 0.001m ${\pm}0.054m$.

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A Study on the Analysis of Operation Reliability of Fire Doors and Fire Shutters Using Fire Statistical Data (화재통계자료를 활용한 방화문, 방화셔터 작동신뢰성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Jin, Seung-hyeon;Kim, Hye-Won;Seo, Dong-Goo;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2020.11a
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    • pp.119-120
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    • 2020
  • In order to establish an evaluation method that can quantitatively evaluate the fire safety of existing buildings in Korea, a stochastic approach is needed to consider the extent of damage in the event of actual fire, along with the operation and installation of facilities. Accordingly, as a basic study for the establishment of fire safety assessment methods for buildings, this study aims to analyze the results of safety inspection and the degree of damage caused by the operation of fire doors and fire shutters in order to derive the reliability of fire doors and fire shutters. As a result, the results of inspection of fire shutters and fire doors and the results of operation using fire statisticians are as follows. As a result of the inspection, the positive rate of fire doors was about 82% and 98% of normal operation was derived from the fire investigation.

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Study on Applicability of Frequency Domain-Based Fatigue Analysis for Wide Band Gaussian Process I : Rayleigh PDF (광대역 정규 프로세스에 대한 주파수 영역 기반 피로해석법의 적용성에 관한 연구 I : 레일리 PDF)

  • Choung, Joon-Mo;Kim, Kyung-Su;Nam, Ji-Myung;Koo, Jeong-Bon;Kim, Min-Soo;Shim, Yong-Lae;Urm, Hang-Sub
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.350-358
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    • 2012
  • This paper deals with accuracy of accumulated fatigue damage estimation using stochastic fatigue analysis method based on Rayleigh PDF. From full scale measurement data on an 8100TEU container vessel, zero-order spectral moments for wave- and vibration-induced energy spectral densities are determined on the probability level of 99%. 80 simulation cases in total are prepared according to the variation of ratio of zero-order spectral moments and center frequency of vibration ESD. By using inverse Fourier transformation and rainflow cycle counting for the combined ESD of wave and vibration, exact fatigue damages are derived. Fatigue damages in frequency domain based on Rayleigh PDF show large conservativeness compared to exact fatigue damages in times domain. The main cause of the excessive conservativeness is analyzed by two aspects: ratio of zero crossing and peak frequencies and ratio of initial zero order spectral moments and zero order spectral moments from rainflow stress range distributions. Finally, a guideline of applicability of Rayleigh PDF is proposed for wide band processes.

GPS Network Adjustment for Determining KGD2002 Coordinates of the $2^{nd}$ Order Geodetic Control Points (GPS망조정에 의한 2등측지기준점의 세계측지계 성과산정)

  • Lee, Young-Jin;Lee, Hyung-Kyu;Jeong, Gwang-Ho;Lee, Jun-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.451-463
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    • 2007
  • This paper describes issues of GPS network adjustment to determine coordinate sets of the $2^{nd}$ order national geodetic control points based on the Korean Geodetic Datum (KGD2002) which has been newly adopted in 2003, After outlining theoretical background of the GPS network processing, the adjustment procedure applied for this project is detailed. Throughout performing a series of minimally constrained adjustments, some outliers have been removed and magnitude of absolute and relative error for a stochastic modeling has been determined as 4mm+0.4ppm and 8mm+0.8ppm in the horizontal and vertical component, respectively. The over constrained adjustment by fixing the $1^{st}$ order control points was performed to derive final solution, indicating that the accuracy of the estimated coordinates was 2cm and 4cm in the horizontal and vertical component.

An Inventory Problem with Lead Time Proportional to Lot Size and Space Constraint (로트크기에 비례하는 리드타임과 공간 제약을 고려한 재고관리 정책)

  • Lee, Dongju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2015
  • This paper is concerned with the single vendor single buyer integrated production inventory problem. To make this problem more practical, space restriction and lead time proportional to lot size are considered. Since the space for the inventory is limited in most practical inventory system, the space restriction for the inventory of a vendor and a buyer is considered. As product's quantity to be manufactured by the vendor is increased, the lead time for the order is usually increased. Therefore, lead time for the product is proportional to the order quantity by the buyer. Demand is assumed to be stochastic and the continuous review inventory policy is used by the buyer. If the buyer places an order, then the vendor will start to manufacture products and the products will be transferred to the buyer with equal shipments many times. The mathematical formulation with space restriction for the inventory of a vendor and a buyer is suggested in this paper. This problem is constrained nonlinear integer programming problem. Order quantity, reorder points for the buyer, and the number of shipments are required to be determined. A Lagrangian relaxation approach, a popular solution method for constrained problem, is developed to find lower bound of this problem. Since a Lagrangian relaxation approach cannot guarantee the feasible solution, the solution method based on the Lagrangian relaxation approach is proposed to provide with a good feasible solution. Total costs by the proposed method are pretty close to those by the Lagrangian relaxation approach. Sensitivity analysis for space restriction for the vendor and the buyer is done to figure out the relationships between parameters.

Analysis of Accounts Receivable Aging Using Variable Order Markov Model (가변 마코프 모델을 활용한 매출 채권 연령 분석)

  • Kang, Yuncheol;Kang, Minji;Chung, Kwanghun
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2019
  • An accurate prediction on near-future cash flows plays an important role for a company to attenuate the shortage risk of cash flow by preparing a plan for future investment in advance. Unfortunately, there exists a high level of uncertainty in the types of transactions that occur in the form of receivables in inter-company transactions, unlike other types of transactions, thereby making the prediction of cash flows difficult. In this study, we analyze the trend of cash flow related to account receivables that may arise between firms, by using a stochastic approach. In particular, we utilize Variable Order Markov (VOM) model to predict how future cash flows will change based on cash flow history. As a result of this study, we show that the average accuracy of the VOM model increases about 12.5% or more compared with that of other existing techniques.

Korean Sentence Generation Using Phoneme-Level LSTM Language Model (한국어 음소 단위 LSTM 언어모델을 이용한 문장 생성)

  • Ahn, SungMahn;Chung, Yeojin;Lee, Jaejoon;Yang, Jiheon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2017
  • Language models were originally developed for speech recognition and language processing. Using a set of example sentences, a language model predicts the next word or character based on sequential input data. N-gram models have been widely used but this model cannot model the correlation between the input units efficiently since it is a probabilistic model which are based on the frequency of each unit in the training set. Recently, as the deep learning algorithm has been developed, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model and a long short-term memory (LSTM) model have been widely used for the neural language model (Ahn, 2016; Kim et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016). These models can reflect dependency between the objects that are entered sequentially into the model (Gers and Schmidhuber, 2001; Mikolov et al., 2010; Sundermeyer et al., 2012). In order to learning the neural language model, texts need to be decomposed into words or morphemes. Since, however, a training set of sentences includes a huge number of words or morphemes in general, the size of dictionary is very large and so it increases model complexity. In addition, word-level or morpheme-level models are able to generate vocabularies only which are contained in the training set. Furthermore, with highly morphological languages such as Turkish, Hungarian, Russian, Finnish or Korean, morpheme analyzers have more chance to cause errors in decomposition process (Lankinen et al., 2016). Therefore, this paper proposes a phoneme-level language model for Korean language based on LSTM models. A phoneme such as a vowel or a consonant is the smallest unit that comprises Korean texts. We construct the language model using three or four LSTM layers. Each model was trained using Stochastic Gradient Algorithm and more advanced optimization algorithms such as Adagrad, RMSprop, Adadelta, Adam, Adamax, and Nadam. Simulation study was done with Old Testament texts using a deep learning package Keras based the Theano. After pre-processing the texts, the dataset included 74 of unique characters including vowels, consonants, and punctuation marks. Then we constructed an input vector with 20 consecutive characters and an output with a following 21st character. Finally, total 1,023,411 sets of input-output vectors were included in the dataset and we divided them into training, validation, testsets with proportion 70:15:15. All the simulation were conducted on a system equipped with an Intel Xeon CPU (16 cores) and a NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 GPU. We compared the loss function evaluated for the validation set, the perplexity evaluated for the test set, and the time to be taken for training each model. As a result, all the optimization algorithms but the stochastic gradient algorithm showed similar validation loss and perplexity, which are clearly superior to those of the stochastic gradient algorithm. The stochastic gradient algorithm took the longest time to be trained for both 3- and 4-LSTM models. On average, the 4-LSTM layer model took 69% longer training time than the 3-LSTM layer model. However, the validation loss and perplexity were not improved significantly or became even worse for specific conditions. On the other hand, when comparing the automatically generated sentences, the 4-LSTM layer model tended to generate the sentences which are closer to the natural language than the 3-LSTM model. Although there were slight differences in the completeness of the generated sentences between the models, the sentence generation performance was quite satisfactory in any simulation conditions: they generated only legitimate Korean letters and the use of postposition and the conjugation of verbs were almost perfect in the sense of grammar. The results of this study are expected to be widely used for the processing of Korean language in the field of language processing and speech recognition, which are the basis of artificial intelligence systems.

A Study on the Design Value Analysis Methodology for Bridge Structure Using Reliability Analysis (신뢰성 해석을 이용한 교량구조물의 설계VA기법 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Il;Lee, Kwang-Mo;Choi, Suk-Won;Jung, Jun-Hwa;Kim, Seong-Il
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.114-125
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    • 2009
  • In this study, a design value analysis technique that considered stochastic LCC and stochastic performance evaluation was proposed, and by introducing the concept of reliability analysis, a decision making that secured reliability was supported. The results of this study, which was carried out according to the above objectives and methods, are summarized as follows: 1) The design value analysis procedures and value state function, improved in order to carry out a reliable analysis when evaluating alternate proposals that were extracted after the function definition was complete, were formalized, and in order to secure consistency and efficiency for value evaluation procedures, an evaluation index scheme was proposed; 2) Database collection and analysis were done for a bridge's LCC analysis. As for the collection scope of data, literature of previous research done on a bridge's LCC analysis was used as the basis for analysis, and for securing reliability regarding analysis results and dealing with uncertainty of collected data, the MCS technique was applied; 3) Weights and evaluation ranks for performance evaluation of each of the alternate proposals, as well as LCC analysis model, analysis period, discount rate, user expense, safety inspection and safety diagnosis expense conditions for LCC analysis were proposed. Lastly, a feasibility study was done and conclusion was made about "OO grand bridge and connecting road construction work execution design" project centered on value analysis execution case.

Development of a Stochastic Precipitation Generation Model for Generating Multi-site Daily Precipitation (다지점 일강수 모의를 위한 추계학적 강수모의모형의 구축)

  • Jeong, Dae-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.5B
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    • pp.397-408
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    • 2009
  • In this study, a stochastic precipitation generation framework for simultaneous simulation of daily precipitation at multiple sites is presented. The precipitation occurrence at individual sites is generated using hybrid-order Markov chain model which allows higher-order dependence for dry sequences. The precipitation amounts are reproduced using Anscombe residuals and gamma distributions. Multisite spatial correlations in the precipitation occurrence and amount series are represented with spatially correlated random numbers. The proposed model is applied for a network of 17 locations in the middle of Korean peninsular. Evaluation statistics are reported by generating 50 realizations of the precipitation of length equal to the observed record. The analysis of results show that the model reproduces wet day number, wet and dry day spell, and mean and standard deviation of wet day amount fairly well. However, mean values of 50 realizations of generated precipitation series yield around 23% Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of the average value of observed maximum numbers of consecutive wet and dry days and 17% RMSE of the average value of observed annual maximum precipitations for return periods of 100 and 200 years. The provided model also reproduces spatial correlations in observed precipitation occurrence and amount series accurately.

A Study on the Distinct Element Modelling of Jointed Rock Masses Considering Geometrical and Mechanical Properties of Joints (절리의 기하학적 특성과 역학적 특성을 고려한 절리암반의 개별요소모델링에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Seok-Bu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 1998.05a
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    • pp.35-81
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    • 1998
  • Distinct Element Method(DEM) has a great advantage to model the discontinuous behaviour of jointed rock masses such as rotation, sliding, and separation of rock blocks. Geometrical data of joints by a field monitoring is not enough to model the jointed rock mass though the results of DE analysis for the jointed rock mass is most sensitive to the distributional properties of joints. Also, it is important to use a properly joint law in evaluating the stability of a jointed rock mass because the joint is considered as the contact between blocks in DEM. In this study, a stochastic modelling technique is developed and the dilatant rock joint is numerically modelled in order to consider th geometrical and mechanical properties of joints in DE analysis. The stochastic modelling technique provides a assemblage of rock blocks by reproducing the joint distribution from insufficient joint data. Numerical Modelling of joint dilatancy in a edge-edge contact of DEM enable to consider not only mechanical properties but also various boundary conditions of joint. Preprocess Procedure for a stochastic DE model is composed of a statistical process of raw data of joints, a joint generation, and a block boundary generation. This stochastic DE model is used to analyze the effect of deviations of geometrical joint parameters on .the behaviour of jointed rock masses. This modelling method may be one tool for the consistency of DE analysis because it keeps the objectivity of the numerical model. In the joint constitutive law with a dilatancy, the normal and shear behaviour of a joint are fully coupled due to dilatation. It is easy to quantify the input Parameters used in the joint law from laboratory tests. The boundary effect on the behaviour of a joint is verified from shear tests under CNL and CNS using the numerical model of a single joint. The numerical model developed is applied to jointed rock masses to evaluate the effect of joint dilation on tunnel stability.

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