• IE interfaces
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.89-101
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• 1998

The randomness of the input variables in simulation experiments produce output responses which are also realizations of random variables. The random responses make necessary the use of statistical inferences to adequately describe the stochastic nature of the output. The analysis of the simulation output of non-terminating simulations is frequently complicated by the autocorrelation of the output data and the effect of the initial conditions that produces biased estimates. The regenerative method has been developed to deal with some of the problems created by the random nature of the simulation experiments. It provides a simple solution to some tactical problems and can produce valid statistical results. However, not all processes can he modeled using the regenerative method. Other processes modeled as regenerative may not return to a given demarcating state frequently enough to allow for adequate statistical analysis. This paper shows how the state transformation concept was successfully used in a queueing model and a job shop model. Although the first example can be analyzed using the regenerative method. it has the problem of too few recurrences under certain conditions. The second model has the problem of no recurrences. In both cases, the state transformation increase the frequency of the demarcating state. It was shown that time state transformations are regenerative and produce more cycles than the best typical discrete demarcating state in a given run length.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.469-478
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• 2020

This study aims to establish a new methodological framework for the evaluation of the evolution of the reliability of plain concrete for pavement vs number of cycles under flexural fatigue loading. According to the framework, a new method calculating the reliability was proposed through probability simulation in order to describe a random accumulation of fatigue damage, which combines reliability theory, one-to-one probability density functions transformation technique, cumulative fatigue damage theory and Weibull distribution theory. Then the statistical analysis of flexural fatigue performance of cement concrete tested was carried out utilizing Weibull distribution. Ultimately, the reliability for the tested cement concrete was obtained by the proposed method. Results indicate that the stochastic evolution behavior of concrete materials under fatigue loading can be captured by the established framework. The flexural fatigue life data of concrete at different stress levels is well described utilizing the two-parameter Weibull distribution. The evolution of reliability for concrete materials tested in this study develops by three stages and may corresponds to develop stages of cracking. The proposed method may also be available for the analysis of degradation behaviors under non-fatigue conditions.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.79-90
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• 2005

In this paper are reviewed the current status of nuclear fuel management and reactor operational aid tools. In addition, we indicate deficiencies in current capabilities and what future research is judged warranted. For the nuclear fuel management review the focus is on light water reactors and the utilization of stochastic optimization methods applied to the lattice, fuel bundle, core loading pattern, and for BWRs the control rod pattern/core flow design decision making problems. Significant progress in addressing separately each of these design problems on a single cycle basis is noted; however, the outstanding challenge of addressing the integrated design problem over multiple cycles under conditions of uncertainty remains to be addressed. For the reactor operational aid tools review the focus is on core simulators, used to both process core instrumentation signals and as an operator aid to predict future core behaviors under various operational strategies. After briefly reviewing the current status of capabilities, a more in depth review of adaptive core simulation capabilities, where core simulator input data are adjusted within their known uncertainties to improved agreement between prediction and measurement, is presented. This is done in support of the belief that further development of adaptive core simulation capabilities is required to further significantly advance the utility of core simulators in support of reactor operational aid tools.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.13 no.8
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• pp.3880-3899
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• 2019

Distributive desynchronization algorithms based on pulse-coupled oscillator (PCO) models have been proposed for achieving collision-free wireless transmissions. These algorithms do not depend on a global clock or infrastructure overheads. Moreover, they gradually converge to fair time-division multiple access (TDMA) scheduling by broadcasting a periodic pulse signal (called a 'firing') and adjusting the next firing time based on firings from other nodes. The time required to achieve constant spacing between phase neighbors is estimated in a closed form or via stochastic modeling. However, because these algorithms cannot guarantee the completion of desynchronization in a short and bounded timeframe, they are not practical. Motivated by the limitations of these methods, we propose a practical solution called PD-DESYNC that provides a short and deterministic convergence time using a flag firing to indicate the beginning of a cycle. We demonstrate that the proposed method guarantees the completion of desynchronization within three cycles, regardless of the number of nodes. Through extensive simulations and experiments, we confirm that PD-DESYNC not only outperforms other algorithms in terms of convergence time but also is a practical solution.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.225-238
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• 2019

In this paper a novel and efficient computational framework to estimate the stress range versus number of cycles curves experienced by a cable due to external excitations (e.g., seismic excitations, traffic and wind-induced vibrations, among others) is proposed. This study is limited to the wind-cable interaction governed by the Vortex Shedding mechanism which mainly rules cables vibrations at low amplitudes that may lead to their failure due to bending fatigue damage. The algorithm relies on a stochastic approach to account for the uncertainties in the cable properties, initial conditions, damping, and wind excitation which are the variables that govern the wind-induced vibration phenomena in cables. These uncertainties are propagated adopting Monte Carlo simulations and the concept of importance sampling, which is used to reduce significantly the computational costs when new scenarios with different probabilistic models for the uncertainties are evaluated. A high fidelity cable model is also proposed, capturing the effect of its internal wires distribution and helix angles on the cables stress. Simulation results on a 15 mm diameter high-strength steel strand reveal that not accounting for the initial conditions uncertainties or using a coarse wind speed discretization lead to an underestimation of the stress range experienced by the cable. In addition, parametric studies illustrate the computational efficiency of the algorithm at estimating new scenarios with new probabilistic models, running 3000 times faster than the base case.