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Development of Market Growth Pattern Map Based on Growth Model and Self-organizing Map Algorithm: Focusing on ICT products (자기조직화 지도를 활용한 성장모형 기반의 시장 성장패턴 지도 구축: ICT제품을 중심으로)

  • Park, Do-Hyung;Chung, Jaekwon;Chung, Yeo Jin;Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2014
  • Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

Numerical Analysis of the Grand Circulation Process of Mang-Bang Beach-Centered on the Shoreline Change from 2017. 4. 26 to 2018. 4. 20 (맹방해빈의 일 년에 걸친 대순환과정 수치해석 - 2017.4.26부터 2018.4.20까지의 해안선 변화를 중심으로)

  • Cho, Young Jin;Kim, In Ho;Cho, Yong Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we carry out the numerical simulation to trace the yearly shoreline change of Mang-Bang beach, which is suffering from erosion problem. We obtain the basic equation (One Line Model for shoreline) for the numerical simulation by assuming that the amount of shoreline retreat or advance is balanced by the net influx of longshore and cross-shore sediment into the unit discretized shoreline segment. In doing so, the energy flux model for the longshore sediment transport rate is also evoked. For the case of cross sediment transport, the modified Bailard's model (1981) by Cho and Kim (2019) is utilized. At each time step of the numerical simulation, we adjust a closure depth according to pertinent wave conditions based on the Hallermeier's analytical model (1978) having its roots on the Shield's parameter. Numerical results show that from 2017.4.26 to 2017.10.15 during which swells are prevailing, a shoreline advances due to the sustained supply of cross-shore sediment. It is also shown that a shoreline temporarily retreats due to the erosion by the yearly highest waves sequentially occurring from mid-October to the end of October, and is followed by gradual recovery of shoreline as high waves subdue and swells prevail. It is worth mentioning that great yearly circulation of shoreline completes when a shoreline retreats due to the erosion by the higher waves occurring from mid-March to the end of March. The great yearly circulation of shoreline mentioned above can also be found in the measured locations of shoreline on 2017.4.5, 2017.9.7, 2017.11.7, 2018.3.14. However, numerically simulated amount of shoreline retreat or advance is more significant than the physically measured one, and it should be noted that these discrepancies become more substantial for the case of RUN II where a closure depth is sustained to be as in the most morphology models like the Genesis (Hanson and Kraus, 1989).

Comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis of ensemble-based hydrologic data assimilation using airGRdatassim (airGRdatassim을 이용한 앙상블 기반 수문자료동화 기법의 비교 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Garim;Lee, Songhee;Kim, Bomi;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.761-774
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    • 2022
  • Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

Potential of River Bottom and Bank Erosion for River Restoration after Dam Slit in the Mountain Stream

  • Kang, Ji-Hyun;So, Kazama
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.46-46
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    • 2011
  • Severe sediment erosion during floods occur disaster and economic losses, but general sediment erosion is basic mechanism to move sediment from upstream to downstream river. In addition, it is important process to change river form. Check dam, which is constructed in mountain stream, play a vital role such as control of sudden debris flow, but it has negative aspects to river ecosystem. Now a day, check dam of open type is an alternative plan to recover river biological diversity and ecosystem through sediment transport while maintaining the function of disaster control. The purpose of this paper is to verify sediment erosion progress of river bottom and bank as first step for river restoration after dam slit by cross-sectional shear stress and critical shear stress. Study area is upstream reach of slit check dam in mountain stream, named Wasada, in Japan. The check dam was slit with two passages in August, 2010. The transects were surveyed for four upstream cross-sections, 7.4 m, 34 m, 86 m, and 150 m distance from dam in October 2010. Sediment size was surveyed at river bottom and bank. Sediment of cobble size was found at the wetted bottom, and small size particles of sand to medium gravel composed river bank. Discharge was $2.5\;m^3/s$ and bottom slope was 0.027 m/m. Excess shear stress (${\tau}_{ex}$) was calculated for hydraulic erosion by subtracting the values of critical shear stress (${\tau}_{c}$) from the value of shear stress (${\tau}$) at river bottom and bank (${\tau}_{ex}=\tau-{\tau}_c$). Shear stress of river bottom (${\tau}_{bottom}$) was calculated using the cross-sectional shear stress, and bank shear stress (${\tau}_{bank}$) was calculated from the method of Flintham and Carling (1988). $${\tau}_{bank}={\tau}^*SF_{bank}((B+P_{bed})/(2^*P_{bank}))$$ where $SF_{bank}=1.77(P_{bed}/p_{bank}+1.5)^{-1.4}$, B is the water surface width, $P_{bed}$ and $P_{bank}$ are wetted parameter of the bed and bank. Estimated values for ${\tau}_{bottom}$ for a flow of $2.5\;m^3/s$ were lower as 25.0 (7.5 m cross-section), 25.7 (34 m), 21.3 (86 m) and 19.8 (150 m), in N/$m^2$, than critical shear stress (${\tau}_c=62.1\;N/m^2$) with cobble of 64 mm. The values were insufficient to erode cobble sediment. In contrast, even if the values of ${\tau}_{bank}$ were lower than the values for ${\tau}_{bottom}$ as 18.7 (7.5 m), 19.3 (34 m), 16.1 (86 m) and 14.7 (150 m), in N/$m^2$, excess shear stresses were calculated at the three cross-sections of 7.5 m, 34 m, and 86 m distances compare with ${\tau}_c$ is 15.5 N/$m^2$ of 16mm gravel. Bank shear stresses were sufficient for erosion of the medium gravel to sand. Therefore there is potential to erode lateral bank than downward erosion in a flow of $2.5\;m^3/s$. Undercutting of the wetted bank can causes bank scour or collapse, therefore this channel has potential to become wider at the same time. This research is about a potential of sediment erosion, and the result could not verify with real data. Therefore it need next step for verification. In addition an erosion mechanism for river restoration is not simple because discharge distribution is variable by snow-melting or rainy season, and a function for disaster control will recover by big precipitation event. Therefore it needs to consider the relationship between continuous discharge change and sediment erosion.

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The Assessment of Photochemical Index of Nursery Seedlings of Cucumber and Tomato under Drought Stress (건조스트레스에 의한 오이와 토마토 공정육묘의 광화학적 지표 해석)

  • Ham, Hyun Don;Kim, Tae Seong;Lee, Mi Hyun;Park, Ki Bae;An, Jae-Ho;Kang, Dong Hyeon;Kim, Tae Wan
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.479-487
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze photochemical activity of nursery seedlings under drought stress, using chlorophyll fluorescence reaction analysis. Young nursery seedlings of tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) and cucumber (Cucumis sativa L.), were grown under drought stress for 8 days. Analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence reaction (OJIP) and parameters, were performed to evaluate photochemical fluctuation in nursery seedlings under drought stress. Chlorophyll fluorescence reaction analysis showed maximal recorded fluorescence (P) decreased from the 5 day after treatment in tomato seedlings, while an amount of chlorophyll fluorescence increased at the J-I step. Thus, physiological activity was reduced. In cucumber seedlings, maximal recorded fluorescence (P) and maximal variable fluorescence ($F_V$) lowered from the 4 day after treatment, and chlorophyll fluorescence intensity of J-I step increased. Chlorophyll fluorescence parameter analysis showed electron transfer efficiency of PSII and PSI were significantly inhibited with decreasing $ET2_O/RC$ and $RE1_O/RC$ from the 5 day after treatment, in tomato seedlings and from the 4 day after treatment, in cucumber seedlings. $ET2_O/RC$ and $PI_{ABS}$ significantly changed. In conclusion, 6 indices such as $F_V/F_M$, $DI_O/RC$, $ET2_O/RC$, $RE1_O/RC$, $PI_{ABS}$ and $PI_{TOTAL}ABS$ were selected for determining drought stress in nursery seedlings. Drought stress factor index (DFI) was used to evaluate whether the crop was healthy or not, under drought stress. Cucumber seedlings were less resistant to drought stress than tomato seedlings, in the process of drought stress.

Pleural Fluid to Serum Cholinesterase Ratio for the Differential Diagnosis of Transudates and Exsudates (여출액과 삼출액의 감별진단을 위한 흉막액과 혈청에서의 Cholinesterase 비율의 진단적 의의)

  • Cho, Ho;Kim, Hyun-Il;Eum, Min-Sup;Kwon, Han-Jin;Oh, Yong-Leul;Kim, Kwang-Suk;Kim, Hui-Jung
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.781-787
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    • 2000
  • Background : The established by Light et al in 1972 have been used widely for the differential diagnosis of the pleural effusions in transudates and exsudates. However, in recent years, several reports have agreed that these criteria misclassified an important number of effusions. For this reason, different parameters have been proposed for differentiating the transudates from exudates. Nevertheless, all these alternative parameters have not been better than the past criteria of Light et al. In response the usefulness of two parameters for differentiating pleural transudate from exudates were evaluated : pleural fluid cholinesterase level and pleural fluid to serum cholinesterase ratio. Methods : A total of forty-three patients with known causes of the pleural of the pleural effusion by diagnostic thoracentesis were studied. The following criteria for differentiating the pleural effusions in transudates and exsudates were analyzed : Ligt's criteria, the pleural fluid cholesterol level, the pleural fluid to serum cholesterol ratio, the pleural fluid cholinesterase level, and the pleural fluid to serum cholinesterase ratio. Results : The conditions of forty-three patients were diagnosed. Ten were classified as having transudates and thirty-three as exudates. The percentage of effusions misclassified by each parameter was as follows : Light's criteria, 9.3% ; pleural fluid cholesterol 2.3% ; pleural fluid to serum cholesterol, ratio, 2.3% ; pleural fluid cholinesterase, 4.7% ; and pleural fluid to serum chlinesterase ratio, 2.3%. Conclusions : The pleural fluid to serum cholinesterase ratio is one of the accurate criteria for differentiating pleural transudates from exudates. If fur1her studies confirm the results, the cholinesterase ratio could be used as the first step in the evaluation of pleural effusion and, if evaluated together with the other criteria, the differentiation of pleural transudate from exsudates will become more accurate.

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A Knowledge-based Approach for the Estimation of Effective Sampling Station Frequencies in Benthic Ecological Assessments (지식기반적 방법을 활용한 저서생태계 평가의 유효 조사정점 개수 산정)

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Kim, Chang-Soo;Jung, Hoe-In;Lee, Yong-Woo;Lee, Man-Woo;Lee, Chang-Gun;Jin, Sung-Ju;Maeng, Jun-Ho;Hong, Jae-Sang
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.147-154
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    • 2011
  • Decision making in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Consultation on the Coastal Area Utilization (CCAU) is footing on the survey reports, thus requires concrete and accurate information on the natural habitats. In spite of the importance of reporting the ecological quality and status of habitats, the accumulated knowledge and recent techniques in ecology such as the use of investigated cases and indicators/indices have not been utilized in evaluation processes. Even the EIA report does not contain sufficient information required in a decision making process for conservation and development. In addition, for CCAU, sampling efforts were so limited that only two or a few stations were set in most study cases. This hampers transferring key ecological information to both specialist review and decision making processes. Hence, setting the effective number of sampling stations can be said as a prior step for better assessment. We introduced a few statistical techniques to determine the number of sampling stations in macrobenthos surveys. However, the application of the techniques requires a preliminary study that cannot be performed under the current assessment frame. An analysis of the spatial configuration of sampling stations from 19 previous studies was carried out as an alternative approach, based on the assumption that those configurations reported in scientific journal contribute to successful understanding of the ecological phenomena. The distance between stations and number of sampling stations in a $4{\times}4$ km unit area were calculated, and the medians of each parameter were 2.3 km, and 3, respectively. For each study, approximated survey area (ASA, $km^2$) was obtained by using the number of sampling stations in a unit area (NSSU) and total number of sampling stations (TNSS). To predict either appropriate ASA or NSSU/TNSS, we found and suggested statistically significant functional relationship among ASA, survey purpose and NSSU. This empirical approach will contribute to increasing sampling effort in a field survey and communicating with reasonable data and information in EIA and CCAU.

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge by Considering Runoff Process and Groundwater Level Variation in Watershed (유역 유출과정과 지하수위 변동을 고려한 분포형 지하수 함양량 산정방안)

  • Chung, Il-Moon;Kim, Nam-Won;Lee, Jeong-Woo
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2007
  • In Korea, there have been various methods of estimating groundwater recharge which generally can be subdivided into three types: baseflow separation method by means of groundwater recession curve, water budget analysis based on lumped conceptual model in watershed, and water table fluctuation method (WTF) by using the data from groundwater monitoring wells. However, groundwater recharge rate shows the spatial-temporal variability due to climatic condition, land use and hydrogeological heterogeneity, so these methods have various limits to deal with these characteristics. To overcome these limitations, we present a new method of estimating recharge based on water balance components from the SWAT-MODFLOW which is an integrated surface-ground water model. Groundwater levels in the interest area close to the stream have dynamics similar to stream flow, whereas levels further upslope respond to precipitation with a delay. As these behaviours are related to the physical process of recharge, it is needed to account for the time delay in aquifer recharge once the water exits the soil profile to represent these features. In SWAT, a single linear reservoir storage module with an exponential decay weighting function is used to compute the recharge from soil to aquifer on a given day. However, this module has some limitations expressing recharge variation when the delay time is too long and transient recharge trend does not match to the groundwater table time series, the multi-reservoir storage routing module which represents more realistic time delay through vadose zone is newly suggested in this study. In this module, the parameter related to the delay time should be optimized by checking the correlation between simulated recharge and observed groundwater levels. The final step of this procedure is to compare simulated groundwater table with observed one as well as to compare simulated watershed runoff with observed one. This method is applied to Mihocheon watershed in Korea for the purpose of testing the procedure of proper estimation of spatio-temporal groundwater recharge distribution. As the newly suggested method of estimating recharge has the advantages of effectiveness of watershed model as well as the accuracy of WTF method, the estimated daily recharge rate would be an advanced quantity reflecting the heterogeneity of hydrogeology, climatic condition, land use as well as physical behaviour of water in soil layers and aquifers.

Analysis of Image Processing Characteristics in Computed Radiography System by Virtual Digital Test Pattern Method (Virtual Digital Test Pattern Method를 이용한 CR 시스템의 영상처리 특성 분석)

  • Choi, In-Seok;Kim, Jung-Min;Oh, Hye-Kyong;Kim, You-Hyun;Lee, Ki-Sung;Jeong, Hoi-Woun;Choi, Seok-Yoon
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2010
  • The objectives of this study is to figure out the unknown image processing methods of commercial CR system. We have implemented the processing curve of each Look up table(LUT) in REGIUS 150 CR system by using virtual digital test pattern method. The characteristic of Dry Imager was measured also. First of all, we have generated the virtual digital test pattern file with binary file editor. This file was used as an input data of CR system (REGIUS 150 CR system, KONICA MINOLTA). The DICOM files which were automatically generated output files by the CR system, were used to figure out the processing curves of each LUT modes (THX, ST, STM, LUM, BONE, LIN). The gradation curves of Dry Imager were also measured to figure out the characteristics of hard copy image. According to the results of each parameters, we identified the characteristics of image processing parameter in CR system. The processing curves which were measured by this proposed method showed the characteristics of CR system. And we found the linearity of Dry Imager in the middle area of processing curves. With these results, we found that the relationships between the curves and each parameters. The G value is related to the slope and the S value is related to the shift in x-axis of processing curves. In conclusion, the image processing method of the each commercial CR systems are different, and they are concealed. This proposed method which uses virtual digital test pattern can measure the characteristics of parameters for the image processing patterns in the CR system. We expect that the proposed method is useful to analogize the image processing means not only for this CR system, but also for the other commercial CR systems.

Evaluation of Setup Uncertainty on the CTV Dose and Setup Margin Using Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테칼로 전산모사를 이용한 셋업오차가 임상표적체적에 전달되는 선량과 셋업마진에 대하여 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Cho, Il-Sung;Kwark, Jung-Won;Cho, Byung-Chul;Kim, Jong-Hoon;Ahn, Seung-Do;Park, Sung-Ho
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2012
  • The effect of setup uncertainties on CTV dose and the correlation between setup uncertainties and setup margin were evaluated by Monte Carlo based numerical simulation. Patient specific information of IMRT treatment plan for rectal cancer designed on the VARIAN Eclipse planning system was utilized for the Monte Carlo simulation program including the planned dose distribution and tumor volume information of a rectal cancer patient. The simulation program was developed for the purpose of the study on Linux environment using open source packages, GNU C++ and ROOT data analysis framework. All misalignments of patient setup were assumed to follow the central limit theorem. Thus systematic and random errors were generated according to the gaussian statistics with a given standard deviation as simulation input parameter. After the setup error simulations, the change of dose in CTV volume was analyzed with the simulation result. In order to verify the conventional margin recipe, the correlation between setup error and setup margin was compared with the margin formula developed on three dimensional conformal radiation therapy. The simulation was performed total 2,000 times for each simulation input of systematic and random errors independently. The size of standard deviation for generating patient setup errors was changed from 1 mm to 10 mm with 1 mm step. In case for the systematic error the minimum dose on CTV $D_{min}^{stat{\cdot}}$ was decreased from 100.4 to 72.50% and the mean dose $\bar{D}_{syst{\cdot}}$ was decreased from 100.45% to 97.88%. However the standard deviation of dose distribution in CTV volume was increased from 0.02% to 3.33%. The effect of random error gave the same result of a reduction of mean and minimum dose to CTV volume. It was found that the minimum dose on CTV volume $D_{min}^{rand{\cdot}}$ was reduced from 100.45% to 94.80% and the mean dose to CTV $\bar{D}_{rand{\cdot}}$ was decreased from 100.46% to 97.87%. Like systematic error, the standard deviation of CTV dose ${\Delta}D_{rand}$ was increased from 0.01% to 0.63%. After calculating a size of margin for each systematic and random error the "population ratio" was introduced and applied to verify margin recipe. It was found that the conventional margin formula satisfy margin object on IMRT treatment for rectal cancer. It is considered that the developed Monte-carlo based simulation program might be useful to study for patient setup error and dose coverage in CTV volume due to variations of margin size and setup error.