• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.291-305
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• 2022

In this study, the volume of Pohang Port was predicted. All cargo of Pohang port, iron ore, steel, and bituminous coals were selected as prediction targets. SARIMA, Prophet, and Neural Prophet were used as analysis methods. The predictive power of each model was verified, and a predictive model with high performance was used to predict the volume of goods in Pohang port. As a result of the analysis, it was found that Neural Prophet showed the highest performance in all predictive power. As a result of predicting the future volume of goods until August 2027 using Neural Prophet, it was found that the volume of all items in Pohang port was decreasing. In particular, it was analyzed that the decline in steel cargo was steep. In order to increase the volume of cargo at Pohang port, it is necessary to diversify the cargo handled at Pohang port and check the policy of increasing the volume of cargo.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.75-93
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• 2012

The steel cargoes as the core raw materials for the manufacturing industry have important roles for increasing the handling volume of the port. In particular, steel cargoes are fundamental to vitalize Port of Incheon because they have recognized as the primary key cargo items among the bulk cargoes. In this respect, the IPA(Incheon Port Authority) ambitiously developed the port complex facilities including dedicated terminals and its hinterland in northern part of Incheon. However, these complex area has suffered from low cargo handling records and has faced operational difficulties due to decreased net profits. In general, the import and export steel cargo volumes are sensitively fluctuated followed by internal and external economy index. There is a scant of research for forecasting the steel cargo volume in Incheon port which used in various economy index. To fill the research gap, the aim of this research is to predict the steel cargoes of Port of Incheon using the well established methodology i.e. System Dynamics. As a result, steel cargoes volume dealt with in Incheon port is forecasted from about 8 million tons to about 10 million tons during simulation duration (2011-2020). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is measured as 0.0013 which verifies the model's accuracy.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.133-154
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• 2022

The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), which is used as an indicator for marine transportation of steel raw materials, is one of the key economic indexes for managing the risk of loss due to rapid market fluctuations when steel companies establish business strategies and procuring plans for raw materials. Still, the conditions of supply and demand of steel raw materials has been extremely affected by volatility shocks from drastic events like the financial crisis such as the Lehman Brothers incident and changes in the external environment such as COVID-19. And, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, endeavors to predict the market conditions of the steel raw material is becoming more and more arduous for the deepening uncertainty and increased volatility of BCI, which has been used as a leading indicator of the real economy. This study investigates the correlation between the steel raw material market and the marine transportation market by estimating the spillover effect of information between markets. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to analyze information transfer based on the correlation between the BCI and crude steel production, capesize fleet supply, raw material price, and cargo volume.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.1-10
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• 2022

Looking at the cargo trend of Gwangyang port (GWP) during past decade, petrochemical items grew by 26% and steel item grew by 12%, but container cargo just grew by 4%. Thus, Yeosu-Gwangyang Port Authority (YGPA) sets the port development initiative targeting at industrial core port considering GWP's strength as multi function port and industrial port and GWP's weakness as lower container cargo growth trend. The purpose of this study is proposing the projects about the GWP's industrial core port development. The results of the study is as follows. As a prerequisite for development as an industrial core port, it was suggested to form a consensus on the modification or change of the port performance index of univariate port cargo volume. The following three tasks were presented for GWP to develop as an industrial core port. It can be said that it is most necessary to derive, manage, and monitor GWP industrial core performance indicators. Next, it is necessary to conduct a survey on the satisfaction of industrial support in ports. Finally, it is necessary to measure the added value of the port area of GWP hinterland.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.31-55
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• 1986

Generally, the development of shipping is characterized by the amount of traffic flow (traffic volume) and seaborne cargo in the sea. Movement of ships is an essential element of constructing the traffic flow which is represented the dynamic movement of ships in the sea, but on the other band the numbers of arriving and departing the port is the basic factor consisting of the static movement of ships. The amount of cargoes by coastal vessels and ocean trade vessels have increased tremendously with the great growth of the Korean economy these days. This increase of the seaborne cargoes has made the Korean coastal traffic flow so congested that this can be a cause of large pollution as well as great marine casualities such as a loss of human lives and properties . And also the future coastal traffic is expected to increase considerably according to our economic development and high dependence upon foreign trade. Under the circumstance, to devise the safety of coastal traffic flow and to take a proper step of a efficient navigation, there is a necessity for analyzing and surveying the coastal traffic trend and the characteristics of cargo movement. In order to grasp the dynamic movement of ships in the Korean coast, O/D analysis is executed. This paper aims to secure the basic data necessary for a comprehensive plan and estimation of vessel traffic management system for the enhancement of safety, order and efficiency of vessel traffic in the Korean coast. The analyzed results of the traffic flow and seaborne cargoes of the Korean coast are summarized as follows : 1) The congestion by the vessels occurred around the ports such as-in proportion of ship's number (proportion of tonnage) -Incheon 18.5%(14.8%), Pohang 5.9% (9.9%), Samil 5.2%(8.3%), Mokpo 8.6%(0.8%), Pusan 13.5%(36.4%), Ulsan 9.1%(16.2%). 2) It is found that the area adjacent to Incheon, Pusan, Ulsan, Channel of Hanryu and South-western area are heavily congested. 3) It is confirmed thatthe area adjacent to Incheon, Pusan, Ulsan, Channel of Hanryu and South-western area are heavily congested. 3) It is confirmed that the coastal vessels are main elements constituting the coastal traffic and that there are much traffic flow among five ports as following through the precise O/D analysis of ship's coastal movement. Incheon-Samil, Ulsan, Pusan, Jeju Pusan -Samil, Ulsan, Incheon, Jeju Pohang -Samil, Inchoen, Jeju Pohang -Samil, Incheon, Jeju Ulsan -Samil, Incheon, Jeju Samil -Ulsan, Pusan, Incheon 4) The amount of cargoes to abroad are in proportion about 81% of total and the amount of coastal cargoes are about 19%. Of those, cargoes in and out to Japan are about 26% and to South-east Asia are about 27%. 5) The chief items of foreign cargoes are oil(38.33%), iron ore(13.98%), bituminoous coal(12.74%), grain(8.02%), lumber(6.45%) in the import cargoes and steel material(21.96%), cement(17.16%), oil(6.81%), fertilizer(3.80%) in the export cargoes. 6) The 80.5% of total export cargoes and 92.4% of total import cargoes are flowed in five main ports. 7) The chief items of coastal cargoes are oil (42.45%), cement(16.86%), steel material (6.49%), anthracite(6.31%), mineral product(4.3%), grain, and fertilizer. Almost 92.24% of total import and export oil cargoes in Korea is loaded and unloaded at the port of Samil & Ulsan.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.73-89
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• 2021

The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.