• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.21-30
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• 2011

The contractor management for the effective defense project is essential factor in the modern defense acquisition project. The occurrence of Improper Businessman causes the reason in which defense acquisition project is unable to be reasonably fulfilled and setback to the deployment of defense weapon system. In this paper, we develop a prediction model for the effective defense project by using the Discriminant Analysis, the Logistic Regression & Artificial Neural Network and analyse the core variables that determine the Improper Businessman in many variables. It is expected that our model can be used to improve the project management capability of defense acquisition and contribute to the establishment of efficient procurement procedure through entry of the reliable domestic manufacturer.

• IE interfaces
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.209-217
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• 2002

Quality of Service(QoS) in the telecommunications can be evaluated by analyzing the opinion data which result from the surveyed opinions of respondents and quantify subjective satisfaction on the QoS from the customers' viewpoints. For analyzing the opinion data, MOS(mean opinion score) method and Cumulative Probability Curve method are often used. The methods are based on the scoring method, and therefore, have the intrinsic deficiency due to the assignment of arbitrary scores. In this paper, we propose an analysis method of the opinion data using logit models which can be used to analyze the ordinal categorical data without assigning arbitrary scores to customers' opinion, and develop an analysis procedure considering the usage of procedures provided by SAS(Statistical Analysis System) statistical package. By the proposed method, we can estimate the relationship between customer satisfaction and network performance parameters, and provide guidelines for network planning. In addition, the proposed method is compared with Cumulative Probability Curve method with respect to prediction errors.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.475-486
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• 2006

Space time series data can be viewed either as a set of time series collected simultaneously at a number of spatial locations or as sets of spatial data collected at a number of time points. The major purpose of this article is to formulate a class of space time autoregressive moving average (STARMA) model, to discuss some of the their statistical properties such as model identification approaches, some procedure for estimation and the predictions. For illustration, we apply this STARMA model to the mumps data. The data set of mumps cases consists of the number of cases of mumps reported from twelve states monthly over the years 1969-1988.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.297-319
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• 2016

Football match predictions are of great interest to fans and sports press. In the last few years it has been the focus of several studies. In this paper, we propose the Poisson regression model in order to football match outcomes. We applied the proposed methodology to two national competitions: the 2012-2013 English Premier League and the 2015 Brazilian Football League. The number of goals scored by each team in a match is assumed to follow Poisson distribution, whose average reflects the strength of the attack, defense and the home team advantage. Inferences about all unknown quantities involved are made using a Bayesian approach. We calculate the probabilities of win, draw and loss for each match using a simulation procedure. Besides, also using simulation, the probability of a team qualifying for continental tournaments, being crowned champion or relegated to the second division is obtained.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.41-46
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• 2010

This paper deals with the problem of developing a new decision procedure for the freeboard of a coastal chemical tanker going on the coast. The decision procedure is mainly constructed with the algorithm of estimating statistically the time period that deck wetness will last on the deck of the ship. Deck wetness is one of the most important safety factors for sailing of a coaster. It generally means the situation in which the amplitude of the relative motion between the deck and the surface of the wave exceeds the freeboard. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed that the time during which the amplitude remains above the level of the freeboard should be appraised on the basis of statistical theory. A series of numerical calculations were executed for four different coastal chemical tankers (199G/T Type II, III & 499G/T Type II, III). It was demonstrated that the present decision procedure of freeboard is practical for planning the type of coaster sailing in the sea.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.783-793
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• 2019

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to apply the machine and deep learning methodology on error terms which are continuously auto-generated on the sensors with specific time period and prove the improvement effects of power generator prediction diagnosis system by comparing detection ability. Methods: The SVM(Support Vector Machine) and MLP(Multi Layer Perception) learning procedures were applied for predicting the target values and sequentially producing the error terms for confirming the detection improvement effects of suggested application. For checking the effectiveness of suggested procedures, several detection methodologies such as Cusum and EWMA were used for the comparison. Results: The statistical analysis result shows that without noticing the sequential trivial changes on current diagnosis system, suggested approach based on the error term diagnosis is sensing the changes in the very early stages. Conclusion: Using pattern of error terms as a diagnosis tool for the safety control process with SVM and MLP learning procedure, unusual symptoms could be detected earlier than current prediction system. By combining the suggested error term management methodology with current process seems to be meaningful for sustainable safety condition by early detecting the symptoms.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.68-74
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• 1995

The statistical analysis system is necessary to predict the resistance and powering performance quickly and precisely at the initial design stage. The authors propose the several functions of the performance prediction program and the structures of data bank. The program includes several series charts, regression coefficients and adapted regression analysis method based on the data bank to predict the resistance and propulsive coefficients. The calculation procedure to find out the principal dimensions and open-water efficiency of the optimum propeller is also included. The evaluation for the program and data bank is conducted by the arbitrarily selected 14 ship models. The results show good agreement with experiments within 5% mean prediction error.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.321-327
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• 2014

A wide scope of numerical simulations was performed to predict model-ship resistances by using STAR-CCM+ and OpenFOAM. The numerical results were compared with experimental measurements in towing tank to analyze statistical reliability of the present simulations. Based on the normal distribution of resistance errors in 113 cases of container carriers, tankers and very large crude-oil carriers, the confidence intervals of numerical error were estimated as [-2.64%,+2.32%] and [-1.82%, +1.87%] with 95% confidence in STAR-CCM+ and OpenFOAM, respectively. The resistance errors of liquefied natural gas carriers with single- and twin-skeg were confident in the ranges of [-2.51%,+2.64%] and [-2.29%, +1.46%], respectively. The grid uncertainty of resistance coefficients for KCS was also quantitatively analyzed by using a grid verification procedure. The grid uncertainty of OpenFOAM (5.1%) was larger than 4.4% uncertainty of STAR-CCM+ although OpenFOAM provided statistically more confident results than those of STAR-CCM+. It means that a grid system verified under a specific condition does not automatically lead to statistical reliability in general cases.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Bioinformatics Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.107-116
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• 2004

The advent of microarray technologies gives an opportunity to moni tor the expression of ten thousands of genes, simultaneously. Such microarray data can be deteriorated by experimental errors and image artifacts, which generate non-negligible outliers that are estimated by 15% of typical microarray data. Thus, it is an important issue to detect and correct the se faulty probes prior to high-level data analysis such as classification or clustering. In this paper, we propose a systematic procedure for the detection of faulty probes and its proper correction in Genechip array based on multivariate statistical approaches. Principal component analysis (PCA), one of the most widely used multivariate statistical approaches, has been applied to construct a statistical correlation model with 20 pairs of probes for each gene. And, the faulty probes are identified by inspecting the squared prediction error (SPE) of each probe from the PCA model. Then, the outlying probes are reconstructed by the iterative optimization approach minimizing SPE. We used the public data presented from the gene chip project of human fibroblast cell. Through the application study, the proposed approach showed good performance for probe correction without removing faulty probes, which may be desirable in the viewpoint of the maximum use of data information.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.247-259
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• 2003

In Korea, quota sampling is mainly adopted in telephone surveys, instead of random sampling which requires call-back procedure and random selection of respondent within households. The contact mode based on the se $x^{*}$age quotas is economically more advantageous and less time-consuming. However, it lacks theoretical ground for valid statistical inference, so that it is hardly accepted in academic circles despite of widely spread practice. Subsequently, survey theoreticians argued that random sampling-based telephone surveys should be tried. In response, Research & Research (R&R), a private research company in Seoul, executed atelephone survey by random sampling mode for the prediction of 2002 Ulsan City Mayor Election. The aim of this case study is to find out various effects of the call-back rule with random selection of respondents by statistically re-analyzing R&R’s Ulsan Survey Data.s by statistically re-analyzing R&R’s Ulsan Survey Data.