• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical Reasoning

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An Ensemble Method for Latent Interest Reasoning of Mobile Users (모바일 사용자의 잠재 관심 추론을 위한 앙상블 기법)

  • Choi, Yerim;Park, Jonghun;Shin, Dong Wan
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.706-712
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    • 2015
  • These days, much information is provided as a list of summaries through mobile services. In this regard, users consume information in which they are interested by observing the list and not by expressing their interest explicitly or implicitly through rating content or clicking links. Therefore, to appropriately model a user's interest, it is necessary to detect latent interest content. In this study, we propose a method for reasoning latent interest of a user by analyzing mobile content consumption logs of the user. Specifically, since erroneous reasoning will drastically degrade service quality, a unanimity ensemble method is adopted to maximize precision. In this method, an item is determined as the subject of latent interest only when multiple classifiers considering various aspects of the log unanimously agree. Accurate reasoning of latent interest will contribute to enhancing the quality of personalized services such as interest-based recommendation systems.

Statistical Studies on the Formularies of Oriental Medicine(II) -Statistical Analyses of Ginseng Prescription- (한방 처방의 통계적 연구( II ) -인삼배합 한방처방의 통계적 연구-)

  • Hong, Moon-Wha
    • Korean Journal of Pharmacognosy
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 1972
  • In spite of the fact that the system of oriental medicine still remains in the realm of 'unproven-method of treatment', no one can deny that the oriental medicine is a rich source of idea and motivation for the discovery of new drug from natural sources. However, non-scientific, mystic hypothetical system of oriental medicine refuses to be revealed scientifically. For the purpose of drawing useful parameters for inductive reasoning of the system, a new approach which comprises statistical analyses of prescription was attempted in this study. One hundred and thirty two ginseng-compounds prescription in 'Bang-Yak-Hap-Pyon', one of the most popular formularies of oriental medicine in Korea, were analysed by multivariate analysis technique. The results revealed ginseng from many points of view, e.g., therapeutic indications, dose, and compatibility, etc. Among these, the most striking coincidence with scientific achievements of modern pharmacology, is the fact that the oriental medicine has characterized ginseng already from remote ancient times as neither a specific curative nor an aphrodisiac, but a non-specific adaptogenic drug for general infirmity.

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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Study on Children's Statistical Thinking Based on Survey Activities (설문 조사 활동에서 나타난 아동의 통계적 사고에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Kyeong;Kim, Hye-Won
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.207-227
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    • 2011
  • This study developed a statistical thinking level with constructs framework from based on Jones, Thornton, Langrall, & Mooney (2000) to analyze the 6th graders' thinking level shown on their survey activities. It was modified by 5 constructs framework such as collecting, describing, organizing, representing, and analyzing and interpreting data with four thinking levels, which represent a continuum from idiosyncratic to analytic reasoning. As a result, among four levels such as idiosyncratic level (level 1), transitional level (level 2), quantitative level (level 3), and analytical level (level 4), levels of two through four are shown on statistical thinking levels in this study.

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Smart Agents and Multimedia Systems

  • Kim, Steven H.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.215-269
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    • 1997
  • Outline $\textbullet$ Introduction $\textbullet$ Multimedia - Types of Data - Motivation - Key issue - Hardware Products - Application Areas $\textbullet$ Agents - Rationale for Agents - Sedentary vs. Mobile - Functional Categories - Application Areas $\textbullet$ Data Mining - 2-D Framework for Data Mining Tools - Classification of Tool - Application Areas - Learning Methodologies * Case Based Reasoning * Neural Networks * Statistical Learning: Orthogonal Arrays * Multi-strategy Learning $\textbullet$ Case Study - Finbot $\textbullet$ Conclusion

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A Discrete Time Approximation Method using Bayesian Inference of Parameters of Weibull Distribution and Acceleration Parameters with Time-Varying Stresses (시변환 스트레스 조건에서의 와이블 분포의 모수 및 가속 모수에 대한 베이시안 추정을 사용하는 이산 시간 접근 방법)

  • Chung, In-Seung
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.1331-1336
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    • 2008
  • This paper suggests a method using Bayesian inference to estimate the parameters of Weibull distribution and acceleration parameters under the condition that the stresses are time-dependent functions. A Bayesian model based on the discrete time approximation is formulated to infer the parameters of interest from the failure data of the virtual tests and a statistical analysis is considered to decide the most probable mean values of the parameters for reasoning of the failure data.

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Buy-Sell Strategy with Mean Trend and Volatility Indexes of Normalized Stock Price (정규화된 주식가격의 평균추세-변동성 지표를 이용한 매매전략 -KOSPI200 을 중심으로-)

  • Yoo, Seong-Mo;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.277-283
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    • 2005
  • In general, stock prices do not follow normal distributions and mean trend indexes, volatility indexes, and volume indicators relating to these non-normal stock price are widely used as buy-sell strategies. These general buy-sell strategies are rather intuitive than statistical reasoning. The non-normality problem can be solved by normalizing process and statistical buy-sell strategy can be obtained by using mean trend and volatility indexes together with normalized stock prices. In this paper, buy-sell strategy based on mean trend and volatility index with normalized stock prices are proposed and applied to KOSPI200 data to see the feasibility of the proposed buy-sell strategy.

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An Investigation of Mathematically High Achieving Students' Understanding of Statistical Concepts (수학 우수아의 통계적 개념 이해도 조사)

  • Lee, Kyeong-Hwa;Yoo, Yun-Joo;Hong, Jin-Kon;Park, Min-Sun;Park, Mi-Mi
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.547-561
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    • 2010
  • Even though statistics is considered as one of the areas of mathematical science in the school curriculum, it has been well documented that statistics has distinct features compared to mathematics. However, there is little empirical educational research showing distinct features of statistics, especially research into the understanding of statistical concepts which are different from other areas in school mathematics. In addition, there is little discussion of a relationship between the ability of mathematical thinking and the ability of understanding statistical concepts. This study extracted some important concepts which consist of the fundamental statistical reasoning and investigated how mathematically high achieving students understood these concepts. As a result, there were both kinds of concepts that mathematically high achieving students developed well or not. There is a weak correlation between mathematical ability and the level of understanding statistical concepts.

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Utilization of Forecasting Accounting Earnings Using Artificial Neural Networks and Case-based Reasoning: Case Study on Manufacturing and Banking Industry (인공신경망과 사례기반추론을 이용한 기업회계이익의 예측효용성 분석 : 제조업과 은행업을 중심으로)

  • Choe, Yongseok;Han, Ingoo;Shin, Taeksoo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.81-101
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    • 2003
  • The financial statements purpose to provide useful information to decision-making process of business managers. The value-relevant information, however, embedded in the financial statement has been often overlooked in Korea. In fact, the financial statements in Korea have been utilized for nothing but account reports to Security Supervision Boards (SSB). The objective of this study is to develop earnings forecasting models through financial statement analysis using artificial intelligence (AI). AI methods are employed in forecasting earnings: artificial neural networks (ANN) for manufacturing industry and case~based reasoning (CBR) for banking industry. The experimental results using such AI methods are as follows. Using ANN for manufacturing industry records 63.2% of hit ratio for out-of-sample, which outperforms the logistic regression by around 4%. The experiment through CBR for banking industry shows 65.0% of hit ratio that beats the statistical method by 13.2% in holdout sample. Finally, the prediction results for manufacturing industry are validated through monitoring the shift in cumulative returns of portfolios based on the earning prediction. The portfolio with the firms whose earnings are predicted to increase is designated as best portfolio and the portfolio with the earnings-decreasing firms as worst portfolio. The difference between two portfolios is about 3% of cumulative abnormal return on average. Consequently, this result showed that the financial statements in Korea contain the value-relevant information that is not reflected in stock prices.

Teacher Noticing on Students' Reasoning of Statistical Variability (학생의 통계적 변이성 이해에 대한 수학 교사의 노티싱 변화 양상 사례연구)

  • Han, Chaereen;Kim, Hee-jeong;Kwon, Oh Nam
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.183-206
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    • 2018
  • It arises that teachers' professional competence should be considered not only with a cognitive perspective but also with a situative perspective. In this study, we considered mathematics teacher noticing as situational professional competencies of a mathematics teacher, and explored how mathematics teachers noticing on children's development of reasoning about variability in a video club has changed with the situative perspective. Findings illustrate that the 'interpreting' component among the three components of noticing-attending, interpreting, and deciding how to respond-was critically decisive for the change of the participant teachers' noticing. We also discussed how the video club intervention(the framework of children's development of reasoning about variability) can support the development of teacher noticing as a professional competence. This study has implications on the design of a video club to improve mathematics teacher noticing.