• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.619-632
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• 2014

The Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) method has been widely used to evaluate the uncertainty of a best-estimate thermal hydraulic system code against a figure of merit. This uncertainty is typically evaluated based on the physical model's uncertainties determined by expert judgment. This paper introduces the application of data assimilation methodology to determine the uncertainty bands of the physical models, e.g., the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters, based upon the statistical approach rather than expert judgment. Data assimilation suggests a mathematical methodology for the best estimate bias and the uncertainties of the physical models which optimize the system response following the calibration of model parameters and responses. The mathematical approaches include deterministic and probabilistic methods of data assimilation to solve both linear and nonlinear problems with the a posteriori distribution of parameters derived based on Bayes' theorem. The inverse problem was solved analytically to obtain the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters assuming Gaussian distributions for the parameters and responses, and a sampling method was utilized to illustrate the non-Gaussian a posteriori distributions of parameters. SPACE is used to demonstrate the data assimilation method by determining the bias and the uncertainty bands of the physical models employing Bennett's heated tube test data and Becker's post critical heat flux experimental data. Based on the results of the data assimilation process, the major sources of the modeling uncertainties were identified for further model development.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.1032-1036
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• 2006

In this study, we implement the potable blood gas analyzer measuring pH, $pCO_2\;and\;pO_2$ of the arterial blood. The implemented system by this study is divided into hardware and software part and also the hardware portion is parted by mechanism and electronic circuit mit. The system program is composed of operating, washing, correcting and measuring program. And to correct the system, two-point calibration method is used, one-point calibration method is also added for more accuracy, and system program is coded. For verifying the implemented system, We examine to response property of each electrode. And evaluate accuracy of the system using standard reagent and was construed as statistical.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.1271-1271
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• 2001

Water pollutants in drainage mainly consist of organic compounds. Hence, total organic carbon (TOC), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) were generally used as the indices of pollution. However, these values are determined by special analyzer (TOC), titration method (COD), or microbe culture (BOD). Therefore, the development of simple and easy methods for the determination of water pollution is required. The authors reported the evaluation of water pollution by near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy in a model system with food components (Takamura et al. (200) Near Infrared Spectroscopy: Proceedings of 9th International Conference, pp. 503-507). In this study, the relationship between NIR spectra and drainage was investigated in order to develop a method for evaluation of drainage by NIR. Drainage was obtained in Nara Purification Center. The ranges of TOC, COD, and BOD were 0-130, 0-100 and 0-200, respectively. NIR transmittance spectra were recorded on NIR Systems Model 6250 Research Composition Analyzer in the wavelength range of 680-1235 and 1100-2500 nm with a quartz cell (light path: 0.5, 1, 2, 4 and 10mm) at 10-40. Statistical analysis was performed using NSAS program. A partial least squares (PLS) regression analysis was used for calibration. As the result, a good correlation between the raw NIR spectra and OC was obtained in the calibration. The best light path was 10 and 0.5mm in the wavelength range of 680-1235 and 110-2500nm, respectively. In the calibration, correlation coefficients(R) were 096-0.97 in the both range. In the prediction, however, a good correlation (R=0.89-0.96) was obtained only in the range of 6801235 nm, Similar results were obtained in the cases of COD and BOD. These results suggest the possibility that NIR spectroscopy can be used to evaluate drainage.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Tobacco Science
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.91-98
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• 2000

This study was carried out to evaluate the uncertainty in the analysis of menthol content from the mentholated cigarette. Menthol in the sample cigarette was extracted with methanol containing an anethole as an internal standard, and then analyzed by gas chromatography. As the sources of uncertainty associated with the analysis of menthol, were the following points tested, such as the weighing of sample, the preparation of extracting solution, the pipetting of extracting solution into the sample, the preparation of standard solution, the precision of GC injections for standard & sample solution, the GC response factor of standard solution, the reproducibility of menthol analysis, and the determination of water content in tobacco, etc. For calculating the uncertainties, type A of uncertainty was evaluated by the statistical analysis of a series of observation, and type B by the information based on supplier's catalogue and/or certificated of calibration. Sources of uncertainty were subsequently included and mathematically combined with the uncertainty arising from the assessment of accuracy to provide the overall uncertainty. It was shown that the main source of uncertainty came from the errors in the reproducibility of menthol and water determination, the purity of menthol reference material in the preparation of standard solution, and the precision of GC injections for sample solution. The errors in sample weighing and volume measurement contributed relatively little to the overall uncertainty. The expanded uncertainty in the mentholated cigarettes, Korean and American brand, at 0.95 level of statistical confidence was $\pm$0.06 and $\pm$0.07 mg/g for a menthol content of 1.89 and 2.32 mg/g, respectively.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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• 2006.06a
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• pp.83-84
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• 2006

In this paper, we examine discharge characteristics of cross-linked polyethylene (since then; XLPE) according to thickness. Voltage was applied to power frequency by step method, and calibration of discharge was set to 50[pC] (slope=8.333). After the voltage was applied, for 10 [sec] (600 [cycle]), occurring discharge and number were detected. Determine of input pattern is difficult because discharge pattern is irregular. Therefore we investigated pattern using the K-means Analysis and Weibull function. Also we investigated variation of centroid and cluster.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.649-673
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• 2020

This paper makes a theoretical contribution by providing clear and detailed derivation of economic agents' decision problems including elastic labor supply in Gertler's overlapping generation (OLG) model. We apply the model to the Korean economy by calibration based on Korean economic data. It also analyzes the impact of current social issues such as aging and extension of retirement age, on the Korean economy in a long-run equilibrium. Subsequently, we also discuss the implications of the analysis. Aging has prolonged the period of retirement; therefore, population structure changes by the increase in the proportion of retirees, the total consumption-to-GDP ratio decreases, and capital stock increases due to reduced propensity to consume out of wealth in preparation for an individual's retirement life. The implementation of retirement age extension increases the proportion of retirees relatively less and alleviates fluctuations in labor supply and the share of financial assets for both economic agents. However, the decrements in consumption-to-GDP ratio is larger than before, and this leads to a larger rise in the capital stock compared to when there is only an aging effect.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.53-72
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• 2024

The interaction of the blade of surface-piercing propellers (SPPs) with the water/air surface is a physical phenomenon that is difficult to model mathematically, so that such propellers are usually designed using empirical approaches. In this paper, a newly developed mechanism for measuring the torque of SPPs in an open water circuit is presented. The mechanism includes a single-component load cell and a deformable torque sensor to detect the forces exerted on the propeller. Deformations in the sensor elements lead to changes in the strain gauge resistance, which are converted into voltage using a Wheatstone bridge. The amplified signal is then recorded by a 16-channel data recording system. The mechanism is calibrated using a 6-DoF calibration system and a Box-Behnken design, achieving 99% accuracy through multivariate regression and ANOVA. Finally, the results of performance tests on a 4-blade propeller were presented in the form of changes in the torque coefficient as a function of feed rate. The results show that the new mechanism is 8% more accurate than conventional empirical methods.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.69-84
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• 1997

We consider a linear calibration problem, $y_i = $$\alpha + \beta (x_i - x_0) + \epsilon_i$, $i=1, 2, {\cdot}{\cdot},n$ $y_f = \alpha + \beta (x_f - x_0) + \epsilon, $ where we observe $(x_i, y_i)$'s for the controlled calibration experiments and later we make inference about $x_f$ from a new observation $y_f$. The objective of the calibration design problem is to find the optimal design $x = (x_i, \cdots, x_n$ that gives the best estimates for $x_f$. We compare Kim(1989)'s Bayesian design which minimizes the expected value of the posterior variance of $x_f$ and some optimal designs from literature. Kim suggested the Bayesian optimal design based on the analysis of the characteristics of the expected loss function and numerical must be equal to the prior mean and that the sum of squares be as large as possible. The designs to be compared are (1) Buonaccorsi(1986)'s AV optimal design that minimizes the average asymptotic variance of the classical estimators, (2) D-optimal and A-optimal design for the linear regression model that optimize some functions of $M(x) = \sum x_i x_i'$, and (3) Hunter & Lamboy (1981)'s reference design from their paper. In order to compare the designs which are optimal in some sense, we consider two criteria. First, we compare them by the expected posterior variance criterion and secondly, we perform the Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the HPD intervals and compare the lengths of them. If the prior mean of $x_f$ is at the center of the finite design interval, then the Bayesian, AV optimal, D-optimal and A-optimal designs are indentical and they are equally weighted end-point design. However if the prior mean is not at the center, then they are not expected to be identical.In this case, we demonstrate that the almost Bayesian-optimal design was slightly better than the approximate AV optimal design. We also investigate the effects of the prior variance of the parameters and solution for the case when the number of experiments is odd.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.337-352
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• 2023

In general, Rainfall-Runoff model parameter set is optimized using the entire data to calculate unique parameter set. However, Korea has a large precipitation deviation according to the season, and it is expected to even worsen due to climate change. Therefore, the need for hydrological data considering seasonal characteristics. In this study, we conducted regional sensitivity analysis(RSA) using the conceptual Rainfall-Runoff model, GR4J aimed at the Soyanggang dam basin, and clustered combining the RSA results with hydrometeorological data using Self-Organizing map(SOM). In order to consider the climate characteristics in parameter estimation, the data was divided based on clustering, and a calibration approach of the Rainfall-Runoff model was developed by comparing the objective functions of the Global Optimization method. The performance of calibration was evaluated by statistical techniques. As a result, it was confirmed that the model performance during the Cold period(November~April) with a relatively low flow rate was improved. This is expected to improve the performance and predictability of the hydrological model for areas that have a large precipitation deviation such as Monsoon climate.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.421-430
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• 2011

As a fundamental study to introduce the reliability-based design code, a statistical study is conducted for the material strength data collected from domestic construction sites. In order to develop a rational design code based on statistics and reliability theory, it is essential to obtain the statistical properties of material strength. Material strength data for concrete, reinforcing bars, and prestressing strands which are used in domestic construction sites are collected and statistically analyzed. Then, the statistical properties are compared with those used in the process of the reliability-based calibration of internationally leading design codes. The statistical properties of the domestic data are such that the bias factor is relatively uniform between 1.13 and 1.20 and the coefficient of variation is below 0.10. Reinforcing bar data show difference among different manufacturers but there is not much difference among re-bar diameters. In the case of tendons, which are high strength materials, both of the domestic and foreign data show smaller values of the bias factor and the coefficient of variation than those of concrete and re-bar. Statistical distribution of all the material strength can be properly assumed as normal, log-normal, or Gumbel distribution after analyzing the classified data by individual construction site and manufacturer rather than the mixed data obtained from different sources in order to express the individual distribution of each structure.