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Modeling for Egg Price Prediction by Using Machine Learning (기계학습을 활용한 계란가격 예측 모델링)

  • Cho, Hohyun;Lee, Daekyeom;Chae, Yeonghun;Chang, Dongil
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.15-17
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    • 2022
  • In the aftermath of the avian influenza that occurred from the second half of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, 17.8 million laying hens were slaughtered. Although the government invested more than 100 billion won for egg imports as a measure to stabilize prices, the effort was not that easy. The sharp volatility of egg prices negatively affected both consumers and poultry farmers, so measures were needed to stabilize egg prices. To this end, the egg prices were successfully predicted in this study by using the analysis algorithm of a machine learning regression. For price prediction, a total of 8 independent variables, including monthly broiler chicken production statistics for 2012-2021 of the Korean Poultry Association and the slaughter performance of the national statistics portal (kosis), have been selected to be used. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which indicates the difference between the predicted price and the actual price, is at the level of 103 (won), which can be interpreted as explaining the egg prices relatively well predicted. Accurate prediction of egg prices lead to flexible adjustment of egg production weeks for laying hens, which can help decision-making about stocking of laying hens. This result is expected to help secure egg price stability.

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Computer vision-based remote displacement monitoring system for in-situ bridge bearings robust to large displacement induced by temperature change

  • Kim, Byunghyun;Lee, Junhwa;Sim, Sung-Han;Cho, Soojin;Park, Byung Ho
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.521-535
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    • 2022
  • Efficient management of deteriorating civil infrastructure is one of the most important research topics in many developed countries. In particular, the remote displacement measurement of bridges using linear variable differential transformers, global positioning systems, laser Doppler vibrometers, and computer vision technologies has been attempted extensively. This paper proposes a remote displacement measurement system using closed-circuit televisions (CCTVs) and a computer-vision-based method for in-situ bridge bearings having relatively large displacement due to temperature change in long term. The hardware of the system is composed of a reference target for displacement measurement, a CCTV to capture target images, a gateway to transmit images via a mobile network, and a central server to store and process transmitted images. The usage of CCTV capable of night vision capture and wireless data communication enable long-term 24-hour monitoring on wide range of bridge area. The computer vision algorithm to estimate displacement from the images involves image preprocessing for enhancing the circular features of the target, circular Hough transformation for detecting circles on the target in the whole field-of-view (FOV), and homography transformation for converting the movement of the target in the images into an actual expansion displacement. The simple target design and robust circle detection algorithm help to measure displacement using target images where the targets are far apart from each other. The proposed system is installed at the Tancheon Overpass located in Seoul, and field experiments are performed to evaluate the accuracy of circle detection and displacement measurements. The circle detection accuracy is evaluated using 28,542 images captured from 71 CCTVs installed at the testbed, and only 48 images (0.168%) fail to detect the circles on the target because of subpar imaging conditions. The accuracy of displacement measurement is evaluated using images captured for 17 days from three CCTVs; the average and root-mean-square errors are 0.10 and 0.131 mm, respectively, compared with a similar displacement measurement. The long-term operation of the system, as evaluated using 8-month data, shows high accuracy and stability of the proposed system.

Production of Digital Climate Maps with 1km resolution over Korean Peninsula using Statistical Downscaling Model (통계적 상세화 모형을 활용한 한반도 1km 농업용 전자기후도 제작)

  • Jina Hur;Jae-Pil Cho;Kyo-Moon Shim;Sera Jo;Yong-Seok Kim;Min-Gu Kang;Chan-Sung Oh;Seung-Beom Seo;Eung-Sup Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.404-414
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    • 2023
  • In this study, digital climate maps with high-resolution (1km, daily) for the period of 1981 to 2020 were produced for the use as reference data within the procedures for statistical downscaling of climate change scenarios. Grid data for the six climate variables including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation was created over Korean Peninsula using statistical downscaling model, so-called IGISRM (Improved GIS-based Regression Model), using global reanalysis data and in-situ observation. The digital climate data reflects topographical effects well in terms of representing general behaviors of observation. In terms of Correlation Coefficient, Slope of scatter plot, and Normalized Root Mean Square Error, temperature-related variables showed satisfactory performance while the other variables showed relatively lower reproducibility performance. These digital climate maps based on observation will be used to downscale future climate change scenario data as well as to get the information of gridded agricultural weather data over the whole Korean Peninsula including North Korea.

Validation of Satellite Altimeter-Observed Sea Surface Height Using Measurements from the Ieodo Ocean Research Station (이어도 해양과학기지 관측 자료를 활용한 인공위성 고도계 해수면고도 검증)

  • Hye-Jin Woo;Kyung-Ae Park;Kwang-Young Jeong;Seok Jae Gwon;Hyun-Ju Oh
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_1
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    • pp.467-479
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    • 2023
  • Satellite altimeters have continuously observed sea surface height (SSH) in the global ocean for the past 30 years, providing clear evidence of the rise in global mean sea level based on observational data. Accurate altimeter-observed SSH is essential to study the spatial and temporal variability of SSH in regional seas. In this study, we used measurements from the Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS) and validate SSHs observed by satellite altimeters (Envisat, Jason-1, Jason-2, SARAL, Jason-3, and Sentinel-3A/B). Bias and root mean square error of SSH for each satellite ranged from 1.58 to 4.69 cm and 6.33 to 9.67 cm, respectively. As the matchup distance between satellite ground tracks and the IORS increased, the error of satellite SSHs significantly amplified. In order to validate the correction of the tide and atmospheric effect of the satellite data, the tide was estimated using harmonic analysis, and inverse barometer effect was calculated using atmospheric pressure data at the IORS. To achieve accurate tidal corrections for satellite SSH data in the seas around the Korean Peninsula, it was confirmed that improving the accuracy of tide data used in satellites is necessary.

Estimation of the Spring and Summer Net Community Production in the Ulleung Basin using Machine Learning Methods (기계학습법을 이용한 동해 울릉분지의 봄과 여름 순군집생산 추정)

  • DOSHIK HAHM;INHEE LEE;MINKI CHOO
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2024
  • The southwestern part of the East Sea is known to have a high primary productivity compared to those in the northern and eastern parts, which is attributed to nutrients supplies either by Tsushima Warm Current or by coastal upwelling. However, research on the biological pump in this area is limited. We developed machine learning models to estimate net community production (NCP), a measure of biological pump, with high spatial and time scales of 4 km and 8 days, respectively. The models were fed with the input parameters of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a, mixed layer depths, and photosynthetically active radiation and trained with observed NCP derived from high resolution measurements of surface O2/Ar. The root mean square error between the predicted values by the best performing machine model and the observed NCP was 6 mmol O2 m-2 d-1, corresponding to 15% of the average of observed NCP. The NCP in the central part of the Ulleung Basin was highest in March at 49 mmol O2 m-2 d-1 and lowest in June and July at 18 mmol O2 m-2 d-1. These seasonal variations were similar to the vertical nitrate flux based on the 3He gas exchange rate and to the particulate organic carbon flux estimated by the 234Th disequilibrium method. To expand this method, which produces NCP estimate for spring and summer, to autumn and winter, it is necessary to devise a way to correct bias in NCP by the entrainment of subsurface waters during the seasons.

Bone Age Assessment Using Artificial Intelligence in Korean Pediatric Population: A Comparison of Deep-Learning Models Trained With Healthy Chronological and Greulich-Pyle Ages as Labels

  • Pyeong Hwa Kim;Hee Mang Yoon;Jeong Rye Kim;Jae-Yeon Hwang;Jin-Ho Choi;Jisun Hwang;Jaewon Lee;Jinkyeong Sung;Kyu-Hwan Jung;Byeonguk Bae;Ah Young Jung;Young Ah Cho;Woo Hyun Shim;Boram Bak;Jin Seong Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.11
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    • pp.1151-1163
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    • 2023
  • Objective: To develop a deep-learning-based bone age prediction model optimized for Korean children and adolescents and evaluate its feasibility by comparing it with a Greulich-Pyle-based deep-learning model. Materials and Methods: A convolutional neural network was trained to predict age according to the bone development shown on a hand radiograph (bone age) using 21036 hand radiographs of Korean children and adolescents without known bone development-affecting diseases/conditions obtained between 1998 and 2019 (median age [interquartile range {IQR}], 9 [7-12] years; male:female, 11794:9242) and their chronological ages as labels (Korean model). We constructed 2 separate external datasets consisting of Korean children and adolescents with healthy bone development (Institution 1: n = 343; median age [IQR], 10 [4-15] years; male: female, 183:160; Institution 2: n = 321; median age [IQR], 9 [5-14] years; male: female, 164:157) to test the model performance. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and proportions of bone age predictions within 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of the reference age (chronological age) were compared between the Korean model and a commercial model (VUNO Med-BoneAge version 1.1; VUNO) trained with Greulich-Pyle-based age as the label (GP-based model). Results: Compared with the GP-based model, the Korean model showed a lower RMSE (11.2 vs. 13.8 months; P = 0.004) and MAE (8.2 vs. 10.5 months; P = 0.002), a higher proportion of bone age predictions within 18 months of chronological age (88.3% vs. 82.2%; P = 0.031) for Institution 1, and a lower MAE (9.5 vs. 11.0 months; P = 0.022) and higher proportion of bone age predictions within 6 months (44.5% vs. 36.4%; P = 0.044) for Institution 2. Conclusion: The Korean model trained using the chronological ages of Korean children and adolescents without known bone development-affecting diseases/conditions as labels performed better in bone age assessment than the GP-based model in the Korean pediatric population. Further validation is required to confirm its accuracy.

Prediction of Pulmonary Function in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Correlation with Quantitative CT Parameters

  • Hyun Jung Koo;Sang Min Lee;Joon Beom Seo;Sang Min Lee;Namkug Kim;Sang Young Oh;Jae Seung Lee;Yeon-Mok Oh
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.683-692
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    • 2019
  • Objective: We aimed to evaluate correlations between computed tomography (CT) parameters and pulmonary function test (PFT) parameters according to disease severity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and to determine whether CT parameters can be used to predict PFT indices. Materials and Methods: A total of 370 patients with COPD were grouped based on disease severity according to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) I-IV criteria. Emphysema index (EI), air-trapping index, and airway parameters such as the square root of wall area of a hypothetical airway with an internal perimeter of 10 mm (Pi10) were measured using automatic segmentation software. Clinical characteristics including PFT results and quantitative CT parameters according to GOLD criteria were compared using ANOVA. The correlations between CT parameters and PFT indices, including the ratio of forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) and FEV1, were assessed. To evaluate whether CT parameters can be used to predict PFT indices, multiple linear regression analyses were performed for all patients, Group 1 (GOLD I and II), and Group 2 (GOLD III and IV). Results: Pulmonary function deteriorated with increase in disease severity according to the GOLD criteria (p < 0.001). Parenchymal attenuation parameters were significantly worse in patients with higher GOLD stages (P < 0.001), and Pi10 was highest for patients with GOLD III (4.41 ± 0.94 mm). Airway parameters were nonlinearly correlated with PFT results, and Pi10 demonstrated mild correlation with FEV1/FVC in patients with GOLD II and III (r = 0.16, p = 0.06 and r = 0.21, p = 0.04, respectively). Parenchymal attenuation parameters, airway parameters, EI, and Pi10 were identified as predictors of FEV1/FVC for the entire study sample and for Group 1 (R2 = 0.38 and 0.22, respectively; p < 0.001). However, only parenchymal attenuation parameter, EI, was identified as a predictor of FEV1/FVC for Group 2 (R2 = 0.37, p < 0.001). Similar results were obtained for FEV1. Conclusion: Airway and parenchymal attenuation parameters are independent predictors of pulmonary function in patients with mild COPD, whereas parenchymal attenuation parameters are dominant independent predictors of pulmonary function in patients with severe COPD.

Development and application of cellular automata-based urban inundation and water cycle model CAW (셀룰러 오토마타 기반 도시침수 및 물순환 해석 모형 CAW의 개발 및 적용)

  • Lee, Songhee;Choi, Hyeonjin;Woo, Hyuna;Kim, Minyoung;Lee, Eunhyung;Kim, Sanghyun;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.165-179
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    • 2024
  • It is crucial to have a comprehensive understanding of inundation and water cycle in urban areas for mitigating flood risks and sustainable water resources management. In this study, we developed a Cellular Automata-based integrated Water cycle model (CAW). A comparative analysis with physics-based and conventional cellular automata-based models was performed in an urban watershed in Portland, USA, to evaluate the adequacy of spatiotemporal inundation simulation in the context of a high-resolution setup. A high similarity was found in the maximum inundation maps by CAW and Weighted Cellular Automata 2 Dimension (WCA2D) model presumably due to the same diffuse wave assumption, showing an average Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) value of 1.3 cm and high scores of binary pattern indices (HR 0.91, FAR 0.02, CSI 0.90). Furthermore, through multiple simulation experiments estimating the effects of land cover and soil conditions on inundation and infiltration, as the impermeability rate increased by 41%, the infiltration decreased by 54% (4.16 mm/m2) while the maximum inundation depth increased by 10% (2.19 mm/m2). It was expected that high-resolution integrated inundation and water cycle analysis considering various land cover and soil conditions in urban areas would be feasible using CAW.

A Study on the Quality of Healthcare Services for Four Critical Illnesses and the Maintenance of Right to Protection and Dignity in a Senior General Hospital (상급종합병원의 4대 중증질환 의료 서비스 품질과 보호받을 권리 및 존엄성 유지에 관한 연구)

  • Woojin Lee;Minsuk Shin
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.531-550
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The unique nature of life-and-death healthcare services sets them apart from other service industries. While many studies exist on the relationship between healthcare services and customer satisfaction, most of them focus on mildly ill patients, ignoring the differences between critically ill and non-seriously ill patients. This study discusses the actual quality of healthcare services for patients who are facing life-threatening illnesses and are on life support, as well as their right to protection and dignity. Methods: The survey conducted to 149 patients with the four major illnesses: cancer, heart disease, brain disease and rare and incurable disease, those who have experiences with senior general hospitals. Results: The basic statistics of this study are adequate to represent the four major critical illnesses, and the reliability and validity of this study's hypotheses, which were measured by multiple items, were analyzed, and the internal consistency was judged to be high. In addition, it was found that the convergent validity was good and the discriminant validity was also secured. When examining the goodness of fit of the hypotheses, the SRMR, which is the standardized root mean square of residuals that measures the difference between the covariance matrix of the data variables and the theoretical covariance matrix structure of the model, met the optimal criteria. Conclusion: The academic implications of this study are differentiated from other studies by moving away from evaluating the quality of healthcare services for mildly ill patients and focusing on the rights and dignity of patients with life-threatening illnesses in four senior general hospitals. In terms of academic implications, this study enriches the depth of related studies by demonstrating the right to protection and dignity as a factor of patient-centeredness based on physical environment quality, interaction quality, and outcome quality, which are presented as sub-factors of healthcare quality. We found that the three quality factors classified by Brady and Cronin (2001) are optimized for healthcare quality assessment and management, and that the results of patients' interaction quality assessment can be used to provide a comprehensive quality rating for hospitals. Health and human rights are inextricably linked, so assessing the degree to which rights and dignity are protected can be a superior and more comprehensive measurement tool than traditional health level measures for healthcare organizations. Practical implications: Improving the quality of the physical environment and the quality of outcomes is an important challenge for hospital managers who attract patients with life and death conditions, but given the scale and economics of time, money, and human inputs, improving the quality of interactions and defining them as performance indicators in hospital quality management is an efficient way to create maximum value in the short term.

Allometric equation for estimating aboveground biomass of Acacia-Commiphora forest, southern Ethiopia

  • Wondimagegn Amanuel;Chala Tadesse;Moges Molla;Desalegn Getinet;Zenebe Mekonnen
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.196-206
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    • 2024
  • Background: Most of the biomass equations were developed using sample trees collected mainly from pan-tropical and tropical regions that may over- or underestimate biomass. Site-specific models would improve the accuracy of the biomass estimates and enhance the country's measurement, reporting, and verification activities. The aim of the study is to develop site-specific biomass estimation models and validate and evaluate the existing generic models developed for pan-tropical forest and newly developed allometric models. Total of 140 trees was harvested from each diameter class biomass model development. Data was analyzed using SAS procedures. All relevant statistical tests (normality, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity) were performed. Data was transformed to logarithmic functions and multiple linear regression techniques were used to develop model to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB). The root mean square error (RMSE) was used for measuring model bias, precision, and accuracy. The coefficient of determination (R2 and adjusted [adj]-R2), the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz Bayesian information Criterion was employed to select most appropriate models. Results: For the general total AGB models, adj-R2 ranged from 0.71 to 0.85, and model 9 with diameter at stump height at 10 cm (DSH10), ρ and crown width (CW) as predictor variables, performed best according to RMSE and AIC. For the merchantable stem models, adj-R2 varied from 0.73 to 0.82, and model 8) with combination of ρ, diameter at breast height and height (H), CW and DSH10 as predictor variables, was best in terms of RMSE and AIC. The results showed that a best-fit model for above-ground biomass of tree components was developed. AGBStem = exp {-1.8296 + 0.4814 natural logarithm (Ln) (ρD2H) + 0.1751 Ln (CW) + 0.4059 Ln (DSH30)} AGBBranch = exp {-131.6 + 15.0013 Ln (ρD2H) + 13.176 Ln (CW) + 21.8506 Ln (DSH30)} AGBFoliage = exp {-0.9496 + 0.5282 Ln (DSH30) + 2.3492 Ln (ρ) + 0.4286 Ln (CW)} AGBTotal = exp {-1.8245 + 1.4358 Ln (DSH30) + 1.9921 Ln (ρ) + 0.6154 Ln (CW)} Conclusions: The results demonstrated that the development of local models derived from an appropriate sample of representative species can greatly improve the estimation of total AGB.