• Title/Summary/Keyword: Spread regime

Search Result 23, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Predicting Recessions Using Yield Spread in Emerging Economies: Regime Switch vs. Probit Analysis (금리스프레드를 이용한 신흥경제 국가의 불황 예측: 국면 전환 모형 vs. 프로빗 모형)

  • Park, Kihyun;Mohsin, Mohammed
    • International Area Studies Review
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.53-73
    • /
    • 2012
  • In this study we investigate the ability of the yield spread to predict economic recessions in two Asian economies. For our purpose we use the data from two emerging economies (South Korea and Thailand) that are also known for their openness in terms of exports and imports. We employ both two-regime Markov-Switching model (MS) and three-regime MS model to estimate the probability of recessions during Asian crisis. We found that the yield spread is confirmed to be a reliable recession predictor for Thailand but not for South Korea. The three-regime MS model is better for capturing the Asian financial crisis than two-regime MS model. We also tried to find the duration of economic expansions and recessions. We tested the hypothesis of asymmetric movements of business cycles. The MS results are also compared with that of the standard probit model for comparison. The MS model does not significantly improve the forecasting ability of the yield spread in forecasting business cycles.

Preliminary Investigation on Spread-Rebound Regime of an Electrically Charged Droplet (전기적으로 대전된 액적의 스프레드-리바운드 거동 영역에 대한 기초 연구)

  • Ryu, Sung-Uk;Lee, Sang-Yong
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
    • /
    • 2007.05b
    • /
    • pp.2067-2072
    • /
    • 2007
  • Understanding of the impinging behavior of an electrically charged spray is essential in determining appropriate operating conditions for electro-spraying of paints, surface coating materials and insecticides. In the present work, as an initial step, the wall impact of an electrically charged droplet has been experimentally investigated. The charged drops were directed on the surface of a paraffin wax, and the impinging behavior was visualized and recorded using a CCD camera to identify the impingement regime. The spread-rebound boundary for the charged drop turned out to be smaller compared to that for an electrically neutral droplet under the same surface condition. The shift of the transition criterion is considered to be due to the discrepancy between the maximum spread ratio of the electrically charged droplet and that of the neutral droplet.

  • PDF

Surface Wetting Effect on Spread-Splash Transition Criterion (표면 젖음성이 스프레드-스플래시 영역 간 천이 조건에 미치는 효과)

  • Ryu, S.U.;Lee, S.Y.
    • Journal of ILASS-Korea
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.198-203
    • /
    • 2007
  • In the present work, surface wetting effect on spread-splash regime and transition criterion of the water and ethanol droplets impacting an unheated dry wall has been experimentally investigated. The droplet was directed on a polished STS plate and a glass slide, and the impinging behavior was visualized and recorded using a CCD camera. Droplet diameter and velocity approaching the wall were measured as well. The critical Sommerfeld number representing the spread-splash boundary for the ethanol droplet impinging on the substrates turned out to be smaller compared to that for the water droplet impinging on the substrates with the surface roughness condition remained unchanged. The shift of the transition boundary is considered to be due to the effect of the surface wettability represented by static contact angle and surface tension of droplet.

  • PDF

A Study on the Change of Clothing Culture of North Korea under the Regime of Jong Un Kim (김정은 체제에서의 북한 의생활 변화 연구)

  • Choy, Hyon sook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
    • /
    • v.66 no.6
    • /
    • pp.122-134
    • /
    • 2016
  • With the advent of the new political regime of Jong Un Kim, North Korea is undergoing many changes, with its main motivation being economic growth. This study aims to identify the changes in clothing in North Korea under the new political climate. The research conducted a review on literature and empirical study. For literature review, books and papers from studies related to North Korea have been reviewed. For the empirical part, interviews with diverse class of North Korean refugees including Hanawon, videos on TV, 1,100 pictures and related articles from newspapers and Internet have been collected. Through this analysis, the study found that subtle changes in North Korean fashion started prior to the Jong Un Kim's regime, but has become full-blown since Kim's assumption of power. This proves that the country is not yet independent from its political situation. The results are as follows: First, the appearance of Ri Sol-ju has liberalized the fashion concept of North Korean women, and the popularity of her trademark style has actually contributed to a more amicable image for Kim. Second, the "Hallyu" style has spread to North Korea through various channels, and has started new trends. Third, the diversification of fashion styles has been greatly accelerated in accordance with the expansion of market, resulting from the economic revitalization policy. Last of all, Jong Un Kim's direct orders concerning fashion have resulted in some significant changes. The sophisticated uniforms of flight attendants and the development of luxury cosmetics being prime examples. As studies on this subject are extremely rare, this research is significant to identify the changes on the clothing culture under Jong Un Kim's regime, and to present an expanded view, as the two countries work towards an united Korea.

North Korea's sudden change scenario 2 : Focusing on the cases of Jasmine revolution countries (북한의 급변사태 시나리오 2 : 재스민혁명 국가들의 사례분석을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Dae Sung
    • Convergence Security Journal
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.47-52
    • /
    • 2017
  • The wave of democratization that started in southern Europe spread to South America and Asia, dismantling the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries and appeared as a Jasmine revolution in countries of North Africa and the Middle East. As a result, many scholars have actively carried out researches related to the sudden change of North Korea, while taking a cautious view that the Jasmine Revolution might occur in North Korea. The focuses of the studies were on the cause and timing of the sudden change and the main forces of the revolution in North Korea. There weren't enough discussions on how the process will be developed and whether there will be a system change. In this study, based on the results of analyzing the systematic changes of the Jasmine revolution nations, it suggested five scenarios that can be developed after the sudden change of North Korea. Scenario type I: Relatively peaceful and the possibility of regime change, Scenario type II: Reunification and then civil war, Scenario type III: Regime changed but one of Kim Il Sung family grabbing the power, Scenario type IV: Successful regime change but civil war happening, Scenario type V: Regime change failed and civil war continuing.

Effect of Diameter on Spreading Flame over Electrical Wire with Applied AC Electric Fields (교류전기장이 인가된 상태에서 전선을 통해 전파하는 화염에 대한 전선직경의 영향)

  • Park, S.H.;Lim, S.J.;Kwon, O.B.;Park, J.;Chung, S.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Combustion
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-7
    • /
    • 2017
  • An experimental study on spreading flame over electrical wire, which was insulated by Polyethylene(PE) and had different diameters, was conducted with applied AC electric field. The result showed that the flame spread rate decreased in increase of the diameter of insulator at a fixed electric field. The flame spread rate exhibited increase or decrease tendency with applied AC electric field, having three distinct regimes depending on applied voltage and frequency. In each regime, the flame spread rate was characterized by physical parameters of applied electric fields and wire dimensions, and the behaviors could be explained by a thermal balance mechanism.

The Effects of Financial Market Uncertainty: Does Regime Change Occur During Financial Market Crises? (금융시장 불확실성의 효과: 금융시장 위기 기간 중 국면전환이 발생하였는가?)

  • Kim, Seewon
    • Economic Analysis
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.70-99
    • /
    • 2019
  • Using a stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR model consisting of the KOSPI index, the foreign exchange rate, the government bond rate, and the credit spread, this study investigates the effects of financial market uncertainty on financial markets. We find that higher uncertainty has recessionary effects on financial markets. The effects are especially stronger in equity markets and in won-dollar exchange markets. We also find that the effects of uncertainty become stronger during times of financial market stress compared to normal times. Finally, the results imply that financial market uncertainty may potentially affect the real sector, too.

Evaluating the role of vaccine to combat peste des petits ruminants outbreaks in endemic disease situation

  • Abubakar, Muhammad;Manzoor, Shumaila;Ali, Qurban
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.57 no.1
    • /
    • pp.2.1-2.5
    • /
    • 2015
  • Among the main intimidation to the sheep and goat population, PPR outbreaks are causing huge losses especially in endemic areas. During recent times, six outbreaks of PPR were confirmed at semi-organized goat farms/herds in various regions of Punjab province and Islamabad capital territory (ICT), Pakistan. The disease started after introduction of new animals at these farms with no history of previous PPR vaccination. The clinical signs appeared affecting respiratory and enteric systems and spread quickly. Disease caused mortality of 10-20% and morbidity of 20-40% within a time period of four weeks. Morbidity and mortality rates were 30.38% (86/283) and 15.55% (44/283), respectively. Three treatment regimes were executed to demonstrate the role of vaccination during outbreak at these farms. First was to use only the broad spectrum antibiotics (Penicillin & Streptomycin and/or Trimethoprim and Sulfadiazine) at two farms (Texilla and Attock). Second treatment regime was to use the same broad spectrum antibiotic along with extensive fluid therapy (Farms at ICT-1 and ICT-2). The third regime was to use of broad spectrum antibiotic plus fluid therapy along with vaccinating the herd against PPR during first week of outbreak (ICT-3 and ICT-4). The third scheme of treatment gave the better results as there was no mortality in third week post-outbreak. Therefore, it is suggested to give proper importance to PPR vaccination along with conventional symptomatic treatment when dealing the PPR outbreaks in endemic disease conditions.

A Study on the Behavior and Heat Transfer Characteristics of Impinging Sprays

  • Yang, Hei-Cheon;Park, Sang-Kyoo
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.374-383
    • /
    • 2001
  • The spray/wall interaction is considered as an important phenomenon influencing air-fuel mixing in the internal combustion engines. In order to adequately represent the spray/wall interaction process, impingement regimes and post-impingement behavior have been modeled using experimental data and conservation constraints. The modeled regimes were stick, rebound, spread and splash. The tangential velocities of splashing droplets were obtained using a theoretical relationship. The continuous phase was modeled using the Eulerian conservation equations, and the dispersed phase was calculated using a discrete droplet model. The numerical simulations were compared to experimental results for spray impingement normal to the wall. The predictions for the secondary droplet velocities and droplet sizes were in good agreement with the experimental data.

  • PDF

An Analysis of Constraints on Pyroprocessing Technology Development in ROK Under the US Nonproliferation Policy

  • Jae Soo Ryu
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.383-395
    • /
    • 2023
  • Since 1997, the Republic of Korea (ROK) has been developing pyro-processing (Pyro) technology to reduce the disposal burden of high-level radioactive waste by recycling spent nuclear fuel (SNF). Compared to plutonium and uranium extraction process, Korean Pyro technology has relatively excellent proliferation resistance that cannot separate pure plutonium owing to its intrinsic characteristics. Regarding Pyro technology development of ROK, the Bush administration considered that Pyro is not reprocessing under the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership, whereas the Obama administration considered that Pyro is subject to reprocessing. However, the Bush and Obama administrations did not allow ROK to conduct full Pyro activities using SNF, even though ROK had faithfully complied with international nonproliferation obligations. This is because the US nuclear nonproliferation policy to prevent the spread of sensitive technologies, such as enrichment and reprocessing, has a strong effect on ROK, unlike Japan, on a bilateral level beyond the NPT regime for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.