• Title/Summary/Keyword: Speculative

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The Effect of the Reduction in the Interest Rate Due to COVID-19 on the Transaction Prices and the Rental Prices of the House

  • KIM, Ju-Hwan;LEE, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study uses 'Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model' to predict the impact of a sharp drop in the base rate due to COVID-19 at the present time when government policies for stabilizing house prices are in progress. The purpose of this study is to predict implications for the direction of the government's house policy by predicting changes in house transaction prices and house rental prices after a sharp cut in the base rate. Research design, data, and methodology: The ARIMA intervention model can build a model without additional information with just one time series. Therefore, it is a time-series analysis method frequently used for short-term prediction. After the subprime mortgage, which had shocked since the global financial crisis in April 2007, the bank's interest rate in 2020 is set at a time point close to zero at 0.75%. After that, the model was estimated using the interest rate fluctuations for the Bank of Korea base interest rate, the house transaction price index, and the house rental price index as event variables. Results: In predicting the change in house transaction price due to interest rate intervention, the house transaction price index due to the fall in interest rates was predicted to change after 3 months. As a result, it was 102.47 in April 2020, 102.87 in May 2020, and 103.21 in June 2020. It was expected to rise in the short term. In forecasting the change in house rental price due to interest rate intervention, the house rental price index due to the drop in interest rate was predicted to change after 3 months. As a result, it was 97.76 in April 2020, 97.85 in May 2020, and 97.97 in June 2020. It was expected to rise in the short term. Conclusions: If low interest rates continue to stimulate the contracted economy caused by COVID-19, it seems that there is ample room for house transaction and rental prices to rise amid low growth. Therefore, In order to stabilize the house price due to the low interest rate situation, it is considered that additional measures are needed to suppress speculative demand.

Hydrocarbon Source Rock Potential of Eocene Forearc and Subduction Zone Strata, Southern Oregon Coast Range, U.S.A. (미국 오레곤 남부 에오세 전호상 및 섭입대 퇴적층의 탄화수소 근원암 가능성)

  • Ryu, In-Chang
    • The Korean Journal of Petroleum Geology
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    • v.11 no.1 s.12
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    • pp.27-41
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    • 2005
  • The hydrocarbon source rock potential of the Eocene units in the southern Oregon Coast Range was evaluated by using the Rock-Eval pyrolysis. Most Eocene units in southern Oregon Coast Range are thermally immature and contain lean, gas-prone Type III kerogen. However, some beds(coals) are sufficiently organic-rich to be sources of biogenic and thermogenic methane discovered in numerous seeps. The overall hydrocarbon source rock potential of the southern Oregon Coast Range is moderately low. Several requirements for commercial accumulations of hydrocarbon, however, probably exist locally within and adjacent areas. Three speculative petroleum systems are identified. The first includes the southern part of the Oregon Coast Range near the border with the Mesozoic Klamath Mountains and is related to a proposed subduction zone maturation mechanism along thrust faults. The second is centered in the northern part of the range and may be associated with basin-centered gas in an over-pressured zone. The third occurs near the eastern border of the range where maturation is related heating by sills and migration of hydrothermal fluids associated with mid-Tertiary volcanism in the Western cascade arc.

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Efficient Indirect Branch Predictor Based on Data Dependence (효율적인 데이터 종속 기반의 간접 분기 예측기)

  • Paik Kyoung-Ho;Kim Eun-Sung
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.43 no.4 s.310
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2006
  • The indirect branch instruction is a most substantial obstacle in utilizing ILP of modem high performance processors. The target address of an indirect branch has the polymorphic characteristic varied dynamically, so it is very difficult to predict the accurate target address. Therefore the performance of a processor with speculative methodology is reduced significantly due to the many execution cycle delays in occurring the misprediction. We proposed the very accurate and novel indirect branch prediction scheme so called data-dependence based prediction. The predictor results in the prediction accuracy of 98.92% using 1K entries, and. 99.95% using 8K But, all of the proposed indirect predictor including our predictor has a large hardware overhead for restoring expected target addresses as well as tags for alleviating an aliasing. Hence, we propose the scheme minimizing the hardware overhead without sacrificing the prediction accuracy. Our experiment results show that the hardware is reduced about 60% without the performance loss, and about 80% sacrificing only the performance loss of 0.1% in aspect of the tag overhead. Also, in aspect of the overhead of storing target addresses, it can save the hardware about 35% without the performance loss, and about 45% sacrificing only the performance loss of 1.11%.

Vitamin D and Depression (비타민 D와 우울증)

  • Cho, Su Kyung;Koo, Sle;Park, Kyong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.43 no.10
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    • pp.1467-1476
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    • 2014
  • Recent studies have shown that insufficient or deficient vitamin D status may be linked to increased risk of depressive conditions or depression. The aim of this study was to review all available evidence on vitamin D, depression, and any association between them. Cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies have reported contradictory results. Some have reported that low levels of vitamin D may be associated with higher risk of depression or depressive symptoms while others reported that vitamin D status may not be related to depression. Recent clinical trials examining the effects of vitamin D supplementation on depression have also showed discrepant results. However, meta-analysis study results are consistent regarding the beneficial effects of vitamin D. Several mechanisms that account for these beneficial effects of vitamin D on depression have been reported but remain largely speculative. Vitamin D deficiency is very common, and prevalence of depression is increasing in the Asian population, especially females. However, limited literature is available on this population. Considering research results of a potential inverse association between vitamin D level and prevalence of depression, it is important to advance our understanding of the role of vitamin D in depression and conduct well-designed prospective trials in the Asian population.

Language and Symbolic Reference in Whitehead′s Philosophy (화이트헤드의 언어 이해와 상징적 연관)

  • 문창옥
    • Lingua Humanitatis
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    • v.6
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    • pp.147-166
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    • 2004
  • Whitehead's discussion of language is not to be found in any one book or article. It is interwoven with his discussion of many other questions. He was, however, greatly concerned with the problem of symbolism in general and the uses of language. He regards language, spoken or written, as an instrument devised by men to aid them in their adjustment to the environment in which they live Language is used for many specific purposes in the process of this adjustment. Words are employed not only to refer to data and to express emotions. They may be used also to record experiences, and thoughts about these experiences. Worts also function as instruments in the organization of experiences as they are considered in retrospect. Thus words free us from the bondage of the immediate. And Whitehead's theory of meaning is implicit in his discussion of the functions of language. According to him, the human mind is functioning symbolically when some components of its experience elicit consciousness, beliefs, emotions, and usages, respecting other components of its experiences. The former set of components are the 'symbols', and the latter set constitute the 'meaning' of the symbols. Whitehead points out that one word may have several meanings, i.e. refer to several different data. In order to understand, thus, the meaning to which a word refers, it is sometimes very important to appreciate the system of thought within which a person is operating. Further, Whitehead's discussion of language includes a number of cogent warning the deficiencies of language, and hence the need for great care in the use of words. In fact, language developed gradually. For the most part we have created words designed to deal with practical problems. Attention focuses on the prominent features in a situation, in particular the changing aspects of things. With reference to such data our words are relatively adequate. However, this issues in an unfortunate superficiality. The enduring, the subtle, the complex and the general aspects of the universe do not have adequate verbal representation. for this reason, Whitehead's position concerning the uses of language in speculative philosophy is stated with pungent directness. The uncritical trust in the adequacy of language is one of the main errors to which philosophy is liable. Since ordinary language does not do justice to the generalities, profundities and complexities of life, it is obvious that philosophy requires new words and phrases, or at least the revision of familiar words and phrases. Proceeding to develop the theme Whitehead contends that words and phrases must be stretched towards a generality foreign to their ordinary usage. In the same vein Whitehead refers to the need to realize that language which is the tool of philosophy needs to be redesigned just as in physical science available physical apparatus needs to be redesigned. But even these words and phrases, stretched or redesigned, are never completely adequate in philosophical speculations. They are, in his opinion, merely a great improvement over ordinary language or the language science, mathematics or symbolic logic.

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Stable Carbon and Nitrogen Isotopes of Sinking Particles in the Eastern Bransfield Strait (Antarctica)

  • Khim, Boo-Keun;Kim, Dong-Seon;Shin, Hyoung-Chul;Kim, Dong-Yup
    • Ocean Science Journal
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2005
  • A time-series sediment trap was deployed at 1,034 m water depth in the eastern Bransfield Strait for a complete year from December 25, 1998 to December 24, 1999. About 99% of total mass flux was trapped during an austral summer, showing distinct seasonal variation. Biogenic particles (biogenic opal, particulate organic carbon, and calcium carbonate) account for about two thirds of annual total mass flux $(49.2\;g\;m^{-2})$, among which biogenic opal flux is the most dominant (42% of the total flux). A positive relationship (except January) between biogenic opal and total organic carbon fluxes suggests that these two variables were coupled, due to the surface-water production (mainly diatoms). The relatively low $\delta^{13}C$ values of settling particles result from effects on C-fixation processes at low temperature and the high $CO_2$ availability to phytoplankton. The correspondingly low $\delta^{l5}N$ values are due to intense and steady input of nitrates into surface waters, reflecting an unlikely nitrate isotope fractionation by degree of surface-water production. The $\delta^{l5}N$ and $\delta^{l3}C$ values of sinking particles increased from the beginning to the end of a presumed phytoplankton bloom, except for anomalous $\delta^{l5}N$ values. Krill and the zooplankton fecal pellets, the most important carriers of sinking particles, may have contributed gradually to the increasing $\delta^{l3}C$ values towards the unproductive period through the biomodification of the $\delta^{l3}C$ values in the food web, respiring preferentially and selectively $^{12}C$ atoms. Correspondingly, the increasing $\delta^{l5}N$ values in the intermediate-water trap are likely associated with a switch in source from diatom aggregates to some remains of zooplankton, because organic matter dominated by diatom may be more liable and prone to remineralization, leading to greater isotopic alteration. In particular, the tendency for abnormally high $\delta^{l5}N$ values in February seems to be enigmatic. A specific species dominancy during the production may be suggested as a possible and speculative reason.

Study on Modernized Real Estate Transaction System based on Spatial Information (공간정보기반 부동산거래선진화시스템 구축방안)

  • Cho, Chun Man;Chung, Moon Sub
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.69-80
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    • 2013
  • Our country has made every efforts to develop Real Estate Transaction culture with emphasis on Licensed Realtors by introducing Real Estate Transaction Law in 1983. Also, MOLIT(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) designated several organizations including KAR(Korea Association of Realtors) as Real Estate Transaction Information Network Licensees for data credibility enhancement and transaction transparency. Nevertheless, the level of law abiding spirit and transaction culture are still similar to those of the old 'Bokdeokbang' era. The under-developed transaction behaviors prevent the social capital of people's credibility on Licensed Realtors from advancing, and results in the outcomes of unnecessary social cost. That is, very low credibility on the data on Sales Items in the market and the fear of speculative real estate price uprise and market distortions are continuing on. In this context, the purpose of this study is to propose the model of GIS-based Modernized Real Estate Transaction System and its execution policies to support credible Real Estate Information to the general public for efficient transactions in the market. Accordingly, the study aims at contributing to the modernization of Real Estate Transactions, fostering competitiveness of Realtors in the Real Estate Market.

Interdisciplinary and philosophy of Diderot Considered through De l'interprétation de la nature ('융·복합'과 디드로의 철학 - 『자연해석론』을 중심으로 -)

  • PAEK, Chan-Wook
    • Cross-Cultural Studies
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    • v.33
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    • pp.143-169
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    • 2013
  • Recently, because of the danger and damages that following the steady development of scientific technologies, natural science is faced with many humane and ethical problems. So it is asserted the interdisciplinary with social and human science. However, it comes commonly that the ethical issues such as world view and one's view of life caused the development of sociology, especially development of the market economy. But in many cases, the interdisciplinary can be useful for widen the view of scholars. The interdisciplinary is actually connected with the problems of philosophy, and located in that domain. In this case, this is noticed as a model to the philosophers in 18th century, especially Denis Diderot. Diderot published De $l^{\prime}interpr{\acute{e}}tation$ de la nature during editing the Encyclopedia, from there he picked out the contents from piles of documents of Encyclopedia. Even though the contents or opinions of De $l^{\prime}interpr{\acute{e}}tation$ de la nature are inaccuracy or erroneous, it shows that how human-social science and natural science encountered. Diderot studied mathematics and then Diderot accepted to the natural science proposal, he approaches philosophy with translate English books to the French. Next he understood natural science by reading Buffon and Maupertuis, and during working for Encyclopedia, he possessed his knowledge that he can claim his opinion to other scholars. However in this De $l^{\prime}interpr{\acute{e}}tation$ de la nature, Diderot who sometimes rebutted other scholars' theory and demonstration, tried to build a philosophy on metaphysics in order to it was important for himself that he imposed the methods of science and importance of experience. Anyhow, this De $l^{\prime}interpr{\acute{e}}tation$ de la nature cause consider the recognition of Diderot in the field of natural science, and is suggested as a model about his Nature. This mean that it is an expression of his philosophy, and the content is found from natural philosophy and empirical philosophy. Like giving these attache the importance of method study for science and technique, these are targeted the promotion of popularization of natural-science and scientific-technology. Also it advocates fulfilling from reasonable philosophy to empirical philosophy. Therefore, the philosophy which was speculative and abstracted became his philosophy which was writing the meaning, as waiting the discovery of science. And at that time, the humanities made interdisciplinary with natural science.

A Study on the Market Efficiency in a Pari-Mutuel Betting Market in Korea (경마 베팅시장의 효율성에 관한 연구)

  • Yu, Woong;Nahm, Jun-woo
    • Review of Culture and Economy
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.149-171
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents empirical findings about the market inefficiency field in the korean horse track. We first use the place betting data instead of the win betting data inevitably depended on by past studies, and discuss the degree of the long shot anomaly and the bettor's risk attitude sequentially in the place betting market. The empirical result of betting simulations using the place winning function in this study reveals persistently higher returns than the expected payoff in korean racetrack betting market. The clear departures from perfect efficiency in horse-racing betting imply that much of the market information is insufficient and less accurate. This market asymmetry aggravates popular speculations exquisitely since people are attracted by the higher odds figures in the racetrack display although those are much uncertain in future. The findings suggest the more objective and credible information of winning possibilities such as the place winning function including the smart information of marginal odds needs to be available to the betting decision of the public, which contributes to reducing the speculative spirit in korean racetrack.

A study on the meaning of game policy through the amendment of game law (게임 법률의 제·개정을 통해 본 게임정책이 지향하는 의미 탐구)

  • Kim, Min Kyu
    • Review of Culture and Economy
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.53-88
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    • 2018
  • Among the cultural industries, the game industry is the most economically valuable industry. It has been about twenty years since the game policy has been implemented and the game laws have been enacted. If the law is a willing expression for the realization of the policy, the orientation of the game policy can be grasped through revision of the game laws. SOUND RECORDS, VIDEO PRODUCTS, AND GAME SOFTWARE ACT, established in 1999, and GAME INDUSTRY PROMOTION ACT, which was enacted in 2006, are regulated by many revisions. In this paper, I try to understand the direction and meaning of Korean game policy(classification, game dysfunction, gambling, industry growth) through the contents of the revision of the game law for 20 years. The game policy shown through the amendment of the game law is intended to protect the game by regulating the game, and to protect the game user by preventing the gambling and preventing the game dysfunction, and to increase autonomy of users and choice of producers by switching to self rating system, and based on this, an environment for continuous industrial growth is created. In the future, game policies should consider cooperation with social areas beyond game-specific areas. On the other hand, it needs to respond to new agendas such as polarization of industrial structure, fair environment, employment environment.