• Title/Summary/Keyword: Species distribution modeling

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Prediction of Distribution Changes of Carpinus laxiflora and C. tschonoskii Based on Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모델링을 이용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 서어나무 (Carpinus laxiflora)와 개서어나무 (C. tschonoskii)의 분포변화 예측)

  • Lee, Min-Ki;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lee, Chang-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2021
  • Hornbeams (Carpinus spp.), which are widely distributed in South Korea, are recognized as one of the most abundant species at climax stage in the temperate forests. Although the distribution and vegetation structure of the C. laxiflora community have been reported, little ecological information of C. tschonoskii is available. Little effort was made to examine the distribution shift of these species under the future climate conditions. This study was conducted to predict potential shifts in the distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii in 2050s and 2090s under the two sets of climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the spatial distribution of two species using the occurrence data derived from the 6th National Forest Inventory data as well as climate and topography data. It was found that the main factors for the distribution of C. laxiflora were elevation, temperature seasonality, and mean annual precipitation. The distribution of C. tschonoskii, was influenced by temperature seasonality, mean annual precipitation, and mean diurnal rang. It was projected that the total habitat area of the C. laxiflora could increase by 1.05% and 1.11% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was also predicted that the distributional area of C. tschonoskii could expand under the future climate conditions. These results highlighted that the climate change would have considerable impact on the spatial distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii. These also suggested that ecological information derived from climate change impact assessment study can be used to develop proper forest management practices in response to climate change.

Wild Boar (Sus scrofa corranus Heude ) Habitat Modeling Using GIS and Logistic Regression (GIS와 로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 멧돼지 서식지 모형 개발)

  • 서창완;박종화
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 2000
  • Accurate information on habitat distribution of protected fauna is essential for the habitat management of Korea, a country with very high development pressure. The objectives of this study were to develop a habitat suitability model of wild boar based on GIS and logistic regression, and to create habitat distribution map, and to prepare the basis for habitat management of our country s endangered and protected species. The modeling process of this restudyarch had following three steps. First, GIS database of environmental factors related to use and availability of wild boar habitat were built. Wild boar locations were collected by Radio-Telemetry and GPS. Second, environmental factors affecting the habitat use and availability of wild boars were identified through chi-square test. Third, habitat suitability model based on logistic regression were developed, and the validity of the model was tested. Finally , habitat assessment map was created by utilizing a rule-based approach. The results of the study were as folos. First , distinct difference in wild boar habitat use by season and habitat types were found, however, no difference in wild boar habiat use by season and habitat types were found , however, ho difference by sex and activity types were found. Second, it was found, through habitat availability analysis, that elevation , aspect , forest type, and forest age were significant natural environmental factors affecting wild boar hatibate selection, but the effects of slope, ridge/valley, water, and solar radiation could not be identified, Finally, the habitat at cutoff value of 0.5. The model validation showed that inside validation site had the classification accuracy of 73.07% for total habitat and 80.00% for cover habitat , and outside validation site had the classification accuracy of 75.00% for total habitat.

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Weibull Diameter Distribution Yield Prediction System for Loblolly Pine Plantations (테다소나무 조림지(造林地)에 대한 Weibull 직경분포(直經分布) 수확예측(收穫豫測) 시스템에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Young-Jin;Hong, Sung-Cheon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.2
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    • pp.176-183
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    • 2001
  • Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) is the most economically important timber producing species in the southern United States. Much attention has been given to predicting diameter distributions for the solution of multiple-product yield estimates. The three-parameter Weibull diameter distribution yield prediction systems were developed for loblolly pine plantations. A parameter recovery procedure for the Weibull distribution function based on four percentile equations was applied to develop diameter distribution yield prediction models. Four percentiles (0th, 25th, 50th, 95th) of the cumulative diameter distribution were predicted as a function of quadratic mean diameter. Individual tree height prediction equations were developed for the calculation of yields by diameter class. By using individual tree content prediction equations, expected yield by diameter class can be computed. To reduce rounding-off errors, the Weibull cumulative upper bound limit difference procedure applied in this study shows slightly better results compared with upper and lower bound procedure applied in the past studies. To evaluate this system, the predicted diameter distributions were tested against the observed diameter distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two sample test at the ${\alpha}$=0.05 level to check if any significant differences existed. Statistically, no significant differences were detected based on the data from 516 evaluation data sets. This diameter distribution yield prediction system will be useful in loblolly pine stand structure modeling, in updating forest inventories, and in evaluating investment opportunities.

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Comparative Study on the Effect of Turbulence Models for the Numerical Analysis on Exhaust Plume of Oxidizer-Rich Preburner (산화제과잉 예연소기 배기플룸 수치해석에서의 난류모델에 따른 효과 비교연구)

  • Ha, Seong-Up;Moon, Il-Yoon;Moon, Insang;Lee, Soo-Yong
    • Aerospace Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 2014
  • The oxidizer-rich preburner's combustion tests were fulfilled in the development process of staged combustion cycle rocket engines. The exhaust plume from an oxidizer-rich preburner is relatively transparent because combustion takes place in oxidizer rich state. During hot fire tests a still and infrared images were captured to visualize the plume structure, temperature distribution and so on. In addition, the exhaust plume was numerically investigated to figure out the detailed characteristics. The combustion was not considered for the numerical modeling, but the mixing of exhaust plume with circumstantial air was modeled by species transport model with several turbulence models. The inner structure of plume was configured out by the comparison of numerical results with experimental results, and the validity of applied numerical models was verified.

Using High Resolution Ecological Niche Models to Assess the Conservation Status of Dipterocarpus lamellatus and Dipterocarpus ochraceus in Sabah, Malaysia

  • Maycock, Colin R.;Khoo, Eyen;Kettle, Chris J.;Pereira, Joan T.;Sugau, John B.;Nilus, Reuben;Jumian, Jeisin;Burslem, David F.R.P.
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.158-169
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    • 2012
  • Sabah has experienced a rapid decline in the extent of forest cover. The precise impact of habitat loss on the conservation status of the plants of Sabah is uncertain. In this study we use the niche modelling algorithm MAXENT to construct preliminary, revised and final ecological niche models for Dipterocarpus lamellatus and Dipterocarpus ochraceus and combined these models with data on current land-use to derive conservation assessments for each species. Preliminary models were based on herbarium data alone. Ground surveys were conducted to evaluate the performance of these preliminary models, and a revised niche model was generated from the combined herbarium and ground survey data. The final model was obtained by constraining the predictions of the revised models by filters. The range overlap between the preliminary and revised models was 0.47 for D. lamellatus and 0.39 for D. ochraceus, suggesting poor agreement between them. There was substantial variation in estimates of habitat loss for D. ochraceus, among the preliminary, revised and constrained models, and this has the potential to lead to incorrect threat assessments. From these estimates of habitat loss, the historic distribution and estimates of population size we determine that both species should be classified as Critically Endangered under IUCN Red List guidelines. Our results suggest that ground-truthing of ecological niche models is essential, especially if the models are being used for conservation decision making.

Biodynamic understanding of mercury accumulation in marine and freshwater fish

  • Wang, Wen-Xiong
    • Advances in environmental research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.15-35
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    • 2012
  • Mercury (Hg) is a global environmental pollutant that has been the cause of many public concerns. One particular concern about Hg in aquatic systems is its trophic transfer and biomagnification in food chains. For example, the Hg concentration increases with the increase of food chain level. Fish at the top of food chain can accumulate high concentrations of Hg (especially the toxic form, methylmercury, MeHg), which is then transferred to humans through seafood consumption. Various biological and physiochemical conditions can significantly affect the bioaccumulation of Hg-including both its inorganic (Hg(II)) and organic (MeHg) forms-in fish. There have been numerous measurements of Hg concentrations in marine and freshwater fish worldwide. Many of these studies have attempted to identify the processes leading to variations of Hg concentrations in fish species from different habitats. The development of a biokinetic model over the past decade has helped improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the bioaccumulation processes of Hg in aquatic animals. In this review, I will discuss how the biokinetic modeling approach can be used to reveal the interesting biodynamics of Hg in fish, such as the trophic transfer and exposure route of Hg(II) and MeHg, as well as growth enrichment (the increases in Hg concentration with fish size) and biomass dilution (the decreases in Hg concentration with increasing phytoplankton biomass). I will also discuss the relevance of studying the subcellular fates of Hg to predict the Hg bioaccessibility and detoxification in fish. Future challenges will be to understand the inter- and intra-species differences in Hg accumulation and the management/mitigation of Hg pollution in both marine and freshwater fish based on our knowledge of Hg biodynamics.

Estimation of Hydrocarbon Oxidation by Measuring He Concentrations in an SI Engine Exhaust Port (프로판 엔진의 배기 포트에서 탄화수소 산화율 추정)

  • Yi, Hyung-Seung;Park, Jong-Bum;Min, Kyoung-Doug;Kim, Eung-Seo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.660-667
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    • 2000
  • In order to investigate the exhaust structure and secondary oxidation of unburned hydrocarbon (HC) in the exhaust port, concentrations of individual HC species were measured in exhaust process, the degree of oxidation were obtained. Using a solenoid-driven fast sampling system on single-cylinder research engine fueled with 94% propane, the profiles of unburned hydrocarbons (HCs) and non-fuel HCs with a propane fueled engine were obtained from several locations in the exhaust port during the exhaust process. The sampled gases were analyzed using a gas chromatography of HC species with 4 or lesser carbon atoms. The change of total HC concentration and HC fractions of major components through the exhaust port were discussed. The results showed that non-uniform distribution of HC concentration existed around the exhaust valve and changed with time, and that the exhaust gas exhibited nearly uniform concentration profile at port exit, which was due to mixing and oxidation. Also it could be known that bulk gas with relatively high HC concentration came out through the bottom of the exhaust valve. To estimate the mass-based degree of HC oxidation in the exhaust port from measured HC concentrations, a 3-zone diagnostic cycle simulation and plug flow modeling were used. The degree of oxidation ranged between 26 % and 36 % corresponding to the engine operation conditions.

Habitat Distribution Change Prediction of Asiatic Black Bears (Ursus thibetanus) Using Maxent Modeling Approach (Maxent 모델을 이용한 반달가슴곰의 서식지 분포변화 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Geun;Yang, DooHa;Cho, YoungHo;Song, Kyo-Hong;Oh, Jang-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2016
  • This study aims at providing basic data to objectively evaluate the areas suitable for reintroduction of the species of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in order to effectively preserve the Asiatic black bears in the Korean protection areas including national parks, and for the species restoration success. To this end, this study predicted the potential habitats in East Asia, Southeast Asia and India, where there are the records of Asiatic black bears' appearances using the Maxent model and environmental variables related with climate, topography, road and land use. In addition, this study evaluated the effects of the relevant climate and environmental variables. This study also analyzed inhabitation range area suitable for Asiatic black and geographic change according to future climate change. As for the judgment accuracy of the Maxent model widely utilized for habitat distribution research of wildlife for preservation, AUC value was calculated as 0.893 (sd=0.121). This was useful in predicting Asiatic black bears' potential habitat and evaluate the habitat change characteristics according to future climate change. Compare to the distribution map of Asiatic black bears evaluated by IUCN, Habitat suitability by the Maxent model were regionally diverse in extant areas and low in the extinct areas from IUCN map. This can be the result reflecting the regional difference in the environmental conditions where Asiatic black bears inhabit. As for the environment affecting the potential habitat distribution of Asiatic black bears, inhabitation rate was the highest, according to land coverage type, compared to climate, topography and artificial factors like distance from road. Especially, the area of deciduous broadleaf forest was predicted to be preferred, in comparison with other land coverage types. Annual mean precipitation and the precipitation during the driest period were projected to affect more than temperature's annual range, and the inhabitation possibility was higher, as distance was farther from road. The reason is that Asiatic black bears are conjectured to prefer more stable area without human's intervention, as well as prey resource. The inhabitation range was predicted to be expanded gradually to the southern part of India, China's southeast coast and adjacent inland area, and Vietnam, Laos and Malaysia in the eastern coastal areas of Southeast Asia. The following areas are forecast to be the core areas, where Asiatic black bears can inhabit in the Asian region: Jeonnam, Jeonbuk and Gangwon areas in South Korea, Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Chubu, Kanto and Tohoku's border area in Japan, and Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian border area in China. This study is expected to be used as basic data for the preservation and efficient management of Asiatic black bear's habitat, artificially introduced individual bear's release area selection, and the management of collision zones with humans.

Distribution and Prediction Modeling of Snake Roadkills in the National Parks of South Korea: Odaesan National Park (오대산국립공원 내 뱀류 로드킬 분포현황 및 발생예측 모델링)

  • Kim, Seok-Bum;Park, Il-Kook;Park, Daesik
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.460-467
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we collected snake roadkill data from 2006 to 2017 and developed a species distribution model to identify the pattern of snake roadkill and predict the potential hotspot of snake roadkill in the Odaesan National Park of South Korea. During the study period, snake roadkills occurred most frequently on the road, which passes through between forest and stream at an altitude of about 600 m. The modeling result showed that the occurrence probability of snake roadkill was high on a road with a gentle slope at a distance of 25 m from the stream and an altitude of 600 m. The most susceptible regions for snake roadkill in the Odaesan National Park were located on National Route 6, about 2.2 km and 11.7 km away from the southern border of the park, and on Local Road 446, 3.44 km away from the southern border of the park. The results of this study suggest that providing alternative basking places and eco-corridors and installing protection fences that block the inflow of snakes into roads, preferentially around roads and streams at an altitude lower than 700 m would be an effective way of reducing snake roadkill in the Odaesan National Park.

A Management Plan According to the Estimation of Nutria (Myocastorcoypus) Distribution Density and Potential Suitable Habitat (뉴트리아(Myocastor coypus) 분포밀도 및 잠재적 서식가능지역 예측에 따른 관리방향)

  • Kim, Areum;Kim, Young-Chae;Lee, Do-Hun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.203-214
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the concentrated distribution area of nutria (Myocastor coypus) and potential suitable habitat and to provide useful data for the effective management direction setting. Based on the nationwide distribution data of nutria, the cross-validation value was applied to analyze the distribution density. As a result, the concentrated distribution areas thatrequired preferential elimination is found in 14 administrative areas including Busan Metropolitan City, Daegu Metropolitan City, 11 cities and counties in Gyeongsangnam-do and 1 county in Gyeongsangbuk-do. In the potential suitable habitat estimation using a MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model, the possibility of emergency was found in the Nakdong River middle and lower stream area and the Seomjin riverlower stream area and Gahwacheon River area. As for the contribution by variables of a model, it showed DEM, precipitation of driest month, min temperature of coldest month and distance from river had contribution from the highest order. In terms of the relation with the probability of appearance, the probability of emergence was higher than the threshold value in areas with less than 34m of altitude, with $-5.7^{\circ}C{\sim}-0.6^{\circ}C$ of min temperature of the coldest month, with 15-30mm of precipitation of the driest month and with less than 1,373m away from the river. Variables that Altitude, existence of water and wintertemperature affected settlement and expansion of nutria, considering the research results and the physiological and ecological characteristics of nutria. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect them as important variables in the future habitable area detection and expansion estimation modeling. It must be essential to distinguish the concentrated distribution area and the management area of invasive alien species such as nutria and to establish and apply a suitable management strategy to the management site for the permanent control. The results in this study can be used as useful data for a strategic management such as rapid management on the preferential management area and preemptive and preventive management on the possible spreading area.