• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.99-112
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• 2021

This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.192-207
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• 2020

Profitability of upland crops is better than paddy crops and proportion of upland is increasing. However, there is a lack of infrastructures for upland irrigation. The object of this study were to develop water supply scenarios using individual and collective agricultural wells to evaluate economic feasibility to consider geographical analysis of upland farms and water supply facilities. Cheongyang, Dangjin, Yesan, and Goesan were selected as study areas where four different crops of red pepper, chinese cabbage, apple, and bean, respectively, were mainly produced in Chungcheong province. As a result, B/C ratio was estimated as 1.49, 1.36, 1.90, and 0.71 in using individual wells scenario, and 1.45, 1.20, 1.91, and 0.65 in using collective wells scenario for red pepper, chinese cabbage, apple, and bean. It turned out that change of price effected on economic feasibility a lot for crops with low production income. As a result of evaluating economic feasibility by number of plots for developing collective well, there was no effect of economy of scale for red pepper and chinese cabbage. In case of collectivizating more than 20 upland plots, effect of economy of scale appeared for apple and bean. In conclusion, development of water using high value crops including red pepper and apple, and effect of collective well requires additory analysis of .spatial distribution of farms.