• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.26 no.10
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• pp.1167-1180
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• 2017

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are essential for forecasting one-day-ahead solar irradiance. In order to evaluate the performance of the WRF in forecasting solar irradiance over the Korean Peninsula, we compared WRF prediction data from 2008 to 2010 corresponding to weather observation data (OBS) from the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The WRF model showed poor performance at polluted regions such as Seoul and Suwon where the relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) is over 30%. Predictions by the WRF model alone had a large amount of potential error because of the lack of actual aerosol radiative feedbacks. For the purpose of reducing this error induced by atmospheric particles, i.e., aerosols, the WRF model was coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The coupled system makes it possible to estimate the radiative feedbacks of aerosols on the solar irradiance. As a result, the solar irradiance estimated by the coupled system showed a strong dependence on both the aerosol spatial distributions and the associated optical properties. In the NF (No Feedback) case, which refers to the WRF-only stimulated system without aerosol feedbacks, the GHI was overestimated by $50-200W\;m^{-2}$ compared with OBS derived values at each site. In the YF (Yes Feedback) case, in contrast, which refers to the WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled system, the rRMSE was significantly improved by 3.1-3.7% at Suwon and Seoul where the Particulate Matter (PM) concentrations, specifically, those related to the $PM_{10}$ size fraction, were over $100{\mu}g\;m^{-3}$. Thus, the coupled system showed promise for acquiring more accurate solar irradiance forecasts.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2018

In this work, we propose weather prediction models to estimate hourly outdoor temperatures and solar irradiance in the next day using forecasting information. Hourly weather data predicted by the proposed models are useful for setting system operating strategies for the next day. The outside temperature prediction model considers 3-hourly temperatures forecasted by Korea Meteorological Administration. Hourly data are obtained by a simple interpolation scheme. The solar irradiance prediction is achieved by constructing a dataset with the observed cloudiness and correspondent solar irradiance during the last two weeks and then by matching the forecasted cloud factor for the next day with the solar irradiance values in the dataset. To verify the usefulness of the weather prediction models in predicting a short-term building load, the predicted data are inputted to a TRNSYS building model, and results are compared with a reference case. Results show that the test case can meet the acceptance error level defined by the ASHRAE guideline showing 8.8% in CVRMSE in spite of some inaccurate predictions for hourly weather data.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.1005-1013
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• 2017

In this paper, we investigate the performances of time series models to forecast irradiance that consider weather variables such as temperature, humidity, cloud cover and Global Horizontal Irradiance. We first introduce the time series models and show that regression ARIMAX has the best performance with other models such as ARIMA and multiple regression models.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.9-17
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• 2005

Images taken by geostationary satellite may be used to estimate solar irradiance fluxes at earth's surface. It is based on the empirical correlation between a satellite derived cloud index and the irradiance at the ground. For the validation, estimated solar radiation fluxes are compared with observed solar radiation fluxes at 16 sites over the Korean peninsular from January 1982 to December 2004. Estimated solar radiation fluxes show reliable results for estimating the global radiation with average deviation of -7.8 to +7.0% from the measured values and the yearly averaged horizontal global insolation of Korean peninsula was turned out to be $3.56kW/m^{2}/day$.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers B
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.188-194
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• 2005

There are many factors that affect on the system output of Photovoltaic(PV) power generation; the variation of solar radiation, temperature, energy conversion efficiency of solar cell etc. This paper suggests a methodology for calculation of PV generation output using the probability distribution function of irradiance, PV array efficiency and revision factors of solar cell conversion efficiency. Long-term irradiance data recorded every hour of the day for 11 years were used. For goodness-fit test, several distribution (unctions are tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) method. The calculated generation output with or without revision factors of conversion efficiency is compared with that of CMS (Centered Monitoring System), which can monitor PV generation output of each PV generation site.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.463-472
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• 2015

Solar radiation data are important data that can be used as basic research data in diverse areas. In particular, solar radiation data are essential for diverse studies that have been recently conducted in South Korea including those for new and renewable energy resource map making and crop yield forecasting. So purpose of this study is modification of Heliosat-II method to estimate solar irradiance in Korea by using COMS-MI imagery. For this purpose, in this study, errors appearing in ground albedo images were corrected through linear transformation. And method of producing background albedo map which is used in Heliosat-II method is modified to get more finely tuned one. Through the study, ground albedo correction could be successfully performed and background albedo maps could be successfully derived. Lastly, In this study, solar irradiance was estimated by using modified Heliostat-II method. And it was compared with actually measured values to verify the accuracy of the methods. Accuracy of estimated solar irradiance was 30.8% RMSE(%). And this accuracy level means that solar irradiance was estimated on 10% higher level than previous Heliosat-II method.

• Journal of Institute of Convergence Technology
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.31-36
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• 2019

After 30 years of KKP model analysis and extended 30 years of accuracy analysis, the unique correlation and various problems between measured horizontal surface insolation and measured weather data are found in this paper. The KKP model's 10yrs daily total horizontal surface insolation forecasting was averaged about 97.7% on average, and the forecasting accuracy at peak times per day was about 92.1%, which is highly applicable regardless of location and weather conditions nationwide. The daily total solar radiation forecasting accuracy of the modified KKP cloud model was 98.9%, similar to the KKP model, and 93.0% of the forecasting accuracy at the peak time per day. And the results of evaluating the accuracy of calculation for 30 years of KKP model were cloud model 107.6% and cloud model 95.1%. During the accuracy analysis evaluation, this study found that inaccuracies in measurement data of cloud cover should be clearly assessed by the Meteorological Administration.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.41-54
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• 2019

The proportion of solar photovoltaic power generation has steadily increased in the power trade market. Solar energy forecast is highly important for the stable trade of volatile solar energy in the existing power trade market, and it is necessary to identify accurately any forecast error according to the forecast lead time. This paper analyzes the latest study trend in solar energy forecast overseas and presents a consistent comparative assessment by adopting a single statistical variable (nRMSE) for forecast errors according to lead time and forecast technology.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.98-107
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• 2023

A study was conducted to analyze data from 1981 to 2020 for understanding the impact of climate on solar energy generation. A significant increase of 104.6 kWhm^-2 was observed in the annual cumulative solar radiation over this period. Notably, the distribution of solar radiation shifted, with the solar radiation in Busan rising from the seventh place in 1981 to the second place in 2020 in South Korea. This study also examined the correlation between long-term temperature trends and solar radiation. Areas with the highest solar radiation in 2020, such as Busan, Gwangju, Daegu, and Jinju, exhibited strong positive correlations, suggesting that increased solar radiation contributed to higher temperatures. Conversely, regions like Seosan and Mokpo showed lower temperature increases due to factors such as reduced cloud cover. To evaluate the impact on solar energy production, simulations were conducted using climate data from both years. The results revealed that relying solely on historical data for solar energy predictions could lead to overestimations in some areas, including Seosan or Jinju, and underestimations in others such as Busan. Hence, considering long-term climate variability is vital for accurate solar energy forecasting and ensuring the economic feasibility of solar projects.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.11
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• pp.29-42
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• 2023

In this paper, we propose a method to enhance the prediction accuracy of solar irradiance for three major South Korean cities: Seoul, Busan, and Incheon. Our method entails the development of five generative models-vanilla GAN, CTGAN, Copula GAN, WGANGP, and TVAE-to generate independent variables that mimic the patterns of existing training data. To mitigate the bias in model training, we derive values for the dependent variables using random forests and deep neural networks, enriching the training datasets. These datasets are integrated with existing data to form comprehensive solar irradiance prediction models. The experimentation revealed that the augmented datasets led to significantly improved model performance compared to those trained solely on the original data. Specifically, CTGAN showed outstanding results due to its sophisticated mechanism for handling the intricacies of multivariate data relationships, ensuring that the generated data are diverse and closely aligned with the real-world variability of solar irradiance. The proposed method is expected to address the issue of data scarcity by augmenting the training data with high-quality synthetic data, thereby contributing to the operation of solar power systems for sustainable development.