• 천문학회보
• /
• 제42권1호
• /
• pp.41.1-41.1
• /
• 2017

It is well known that there are good relations of coronal hole (CH) parameters such as the size, location, and magnetic field strength to the solar wind conditions and the geomagnetic storms. Especially in the minimum phase of solar cycle, CHs in mid- or low-latitude are one of major drivers for geomagnetic storms, since they form corotating interaction regions (CIRs). By adopting the method of Vrsnak et al. (2007), the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) in Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) has done daily forecast of solar wind speed and Dst index from 2010. Through years of experience, we realize that the geomagnetic storms caused by CHs have different characteristics from those by CMEs. Thus, we statistically analyze the characteristics and causality of the geomagnetic storms by the CHs rather than the CMEs with dataset obtained during the solar activity was very low. For this, we examine the CH properties, solar wind parameters as well as geomagnetic storm indices. As the first result, we show the different trends of the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices depending on the degree of solar activity represented by CH (quiet) or sunspot number (SSN) in the active region (active) and then we evaluate our forecasts using CH information and suggest several ideas to improve forecasting capability.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
• /
• 제6권1호
• /
• pp.71-76
• /
• 2005

The KOMPSAT-1 satellite, launched into a circular sun synchronous orbit on Dec. 21, 1999, entered its$6^{th}$year of successful operation this year. The purposes of the mission are to collect earth images (6.6 m resolution), multi-spectral images of the ocean, and to collect information on the particle environment of the low earth orbit. For normal operation, KOMPSAT-1 orbits are determined using GPS navigation solutions. However, at the start of the life of KOMPSAT-1, the 11-year solar activity cycle was at a maximum. Solar flux was maintained at this level until 2002, and thereafter reduced to a moderate level by 2004. Thus, the OD (Orbit Determination) accuracy has varied according to the solar activity. This paper presents the degree to which the OD accuracy could be degraded during a high solar activity period compared with that of a (relatively) low solar activity period. We investigated the effect of the use of solve-for parameters such as a drag coefficient ($C_D$), solar radiation coefficient ($C_R$), and the general accelerations ($G_A$) on OD accuracy with solar activity. For the evaluation of orbit determination accuracy, orbit overlap comparison is used since no independent orbits of comparable accuracy are available for comparison. The effect of the use of a box-wing model instead of a constant cross-sectional area is also investigated.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
• /
• 한국우주과학회 2008년도 한국우주과학회보 제17권2호
• /
• pp.25.1-25.1
• /
• 2008

The Weddell Sea Anomaly (WSA) in the ionosphere is characterized by higher plasma density at night than during the day in the region near the Weddell Sea. According to previous studies on the WSA, it is known to occur mostly in southern summer and has not been reported in other seasons. We have utilized more than 13-year TOPEX TEC measurements in order to study how the WSA varies with seasons and how it changes with solar activity. The TOPEX TEC data have been extensively utilized for the climatological study of the ionosphere due to its excellent spatial and temporal coverage. We investigate the seasonal and solar activity variations of the WSA using four seasonal cases (Mar. equinox, Jun. solstice, Sep, equinox, and Dec. solstice) and two solar activity conditions (F10.7<120 for solar minimum and F10.7>120 for solar maximum conditions) for geomagnetically quiet periods. Our analysis shows that the WSA occurs only in the southern summer hemisphere for low F10.7, as in previous studies, but the WSA occurs all of seasons except for winter when F10.7 is high: it is most prominent during the December solstice (southern summer) and still strong during both equinoxes. The WSA appears to be an extreme case of global longitudinal variations at mid- and high-latitudes.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제41권2호
• /
• pp.67.2-67.2
• /
• 2016

The Sun has diverse variations in solar atmosphere's layers due to solar activity. This solar variations can be recognized easily by sunspots which appear on the solar photosphere. Thus the sunspot on the photosphere is utilized by direct index of the solar activity. The other variation of the photosphere is center-to-limb variation (CLV). In this study, we analyze the relative intensity observed by SOHO, SDO. The data of photospheric intensity are from full disk images of SOHO/MDI intensity ($6768{\AA}$, from May 1994 to March 2011) and of SDO/HMI intensity ($6173-6174{\AA}$, from May 2010 to June 2016). As the result, we found the latitudinal variation of the intensity. The daily photospheric intensity showed the solar cyclic variation with sunspot number. It has a little difference of phase with sunspot number.

• 한국위성정보통신학회논문지
• /
• 제6권2호
• /
• pp.107-111
• /
• 2011

세계2차대전을 통해 태양폭발은 레이더시스템에 큰 영향을 주는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 1942년 2월 28일의 전파교란 현상은 태양활동의 극대기에 증가한 우주 광선(cosmic ray)에 의한 것이었다. 이러한 사실들이 밝혀지면서 태양폭발 및 태양 입자 활동에 관한 연구가 활발히 이루어졌다. 태양폭발이 우주선에 미치는 영향, 극 운행 비행기에 미치는 영향, 레이더 시스템에 미치는 영향, 무선통신시스템에 미치는 영향 등에 대한 연구가 다양하게 이루어 지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 지난 40여년 간의 태양전파 관측자료를 분석하여 태양폭발에 의해 무선통신에 미치는 영향과 태양활동주기간의 상관관계를 분석하였다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제38권1호
• /
• pp.23-29
• /
• 2021

Utilizing a new version of the sunspot number and group sunspot number dataset available since 2015, we have statistically studied the relationship between solar activity parameters describing solar cycles and the slope of the linear relationship between the monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days in percentage (AD). As an effort of evaluating possibilities in use of the number of active days to predict solar activity, it is worthwhile to revisit and extend the analysis performed earlier. In calculating the Pearson's linear correlation coefficient r, the Spearman's rank-order correlation coefficient rs, and the Kendall's τ coefficient with the rejection probability, we have calculated the slope for a given solar cycle in three different ways, namely, by counting the spotless day that occurred during the ascending phase and the descending phase of the solar cycle separately, and during the period corresponding to solar minimum ± 2 years as well. We have found that the maximum solar sunspot number of a given solar cycle and the duration of the ascending phase are hardly correlated with the slope of a linear function of the monthly sunspot numbers and AD. On the other hand, the duration of a solar cycle is found to be marginally correlated with the slope with the rejection probabilities less than a couple of percent. We have also attempted to compare the relation of the monthly sunspot numbers with AD for the even and odd solar cycles. It is inconclusive, however, that the slopes of the linear relationship between the monthly group numbers and AD are subject to the even and odd solar cycles.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제36권2호
• /
• pp.99-99
• /
• 2011

A statistical study of coronal hole merging and splitting has been performed through Solar Cycle 23. The NOAA/SESC solar synoptic maps are examined to identify inarguably clear events of coronal hole merging and splitting. The numbers of merging events and splitting events are more or less comparable regardless of the phase in the solar cycle. The number of both events, however, definitely shows the phase dependence in the solar cycle. It apparently has a minimum at the solar minimum whereas its maximum is located in the declining phase of the sunspot activity, about a year after the second peak in Solar Cycle 23. There are more events of merging and splitting in the descending phase than in the ascending phase. Interestingly, no event is found at the local minimum between the two peaks of the sunspot activity. This trend can be compared with the variation of the average magnetic field strength and the radial field component in the solar wind through the solar cycle. In Ulysses observations, both of these quantities have a minimum at the solar minimum while their maximum is located in the descending phase, a while after the second peak of the sunspot activity. At the local minimum between the two peaks in the solar cycle, the field strength and the radial component both have a shallow local minimum or an inflection point. At the moment, the physical reason for these resembling tendencies is difficult to understand with existing theories. Seeing that merging and splitting of coronal holes are possible by passage of opposite polarity magnetic structures, we may suggest that the energizing activities in the solar surface such as motions of flux tubes are not exactly in phase with sunspot generation, but are more active some time after the sunspot maximum.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
• /
• 한국우주과학회 2009년도 한국우주과학회보 제18권2호
• /
• pp.26.1-26.1
• /
• 2009

Many solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic activity parameters have 11-year cycle on the average in sync with solar sunspot number. The galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity measured by ground Neutron Monitor (NM) is one of those parameters showing the unprecedented activity levels in the current solar minimum (2008-2009) of solar cycles 23/24. We defined abnormality as the ratio of deviation from long term mean over mean amplitude of solar cycle change. The abnormality distribution map was drawn using all the data of NM stations available online. The implications of those unprecedented levels of GCR intensities of different cutoff rigidities will be discussed.

• 천문학회지
• /
• 제50권2호
• /
• pp.21-27
• /
• 2017

The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
• /
• 제5권2호
• /
• pp.87-96
• /
• 2016

The ionospheric error, which is one of many error elements considered during the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning, is hard to be predicted due to the influence of geomagnetic activity and irregular solar activities. Thus, the present study analyzed a change pattern in the ionosphere through Global Ionosphere Map (GIM) data for 12 years from 2003 to 2014 and a variation in the Slant Total Electron Content (STEC) between Sinuiju and Busan which was the longest range in the southeastern direction of the Korean Peninsula. The variation in the STEC verified the diurnal, annual, and solar cycle variations due to the influence of solar activity. The diurnal variation was characterized that the variation in the STEC started to increase from 6-7 am and reached the maximum at 13-14 pm followed by being decreased. The seasonal variation was characterized that the variation in the STEC was high in spring and autumn whereas it was low in summer and winter. The solar cycle variation revealed that the variation in the STEC increased during solar maximum and decreased during solar minimum. The variation in the STEC was up to 20 Total Electron Content Unit (TECU) during the solar minimum and up to 60 TECU during solar maximum.