• Title/Summary/Keyword: Soil moisture index

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The NCAM Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) Version 1: Implementation and Evaluation (국가농림기상센터 지면대기모델링패키지(NCAM-LAMP) 버전 1: 구축 및 평가)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Song, Jiae;Kim, Yu-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2016
  • A Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) for supporting agricultural and forest management was developed at the National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM). The package is comprised of two components; one is the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system (WRF) coupled with Noah-Multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) and the other is an offline one-dimensional LSM. The objective of this paper is to briefly describe the two components of the NCAM-LAMP and to evaluate their initial performance. The coupled WRF/Noah-MP system is configured with a parent domain over East Asia and three nested domains with a finest horizontal grid size of 810 m. The innermost domain covers two Gwangneung deciduous and coniferous KoFlux sites (GDK and GCK). The model is integrated for about 8 days with the initial and boundary conditions taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) data. The verification variables are 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, 2-m humidity, and surface precipitation for the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. Skill scores are calculated for each domain and two dynamic vegetation options using the difference between the observed data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the simulated data from the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. The accuracy of precipitation simulation is examined using a contingency table that is made up of the Probability of Detection (POD) and the Equitable Threat Score (ETS). The standalone LSM simulation is conducted for one year with the original settings and is compared with the KoFlux site observation for net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and soil moisture variables. According to results, the innermost domain (810 m resolution) among all domains showed the minimum root mean square error for 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, and 2-m humidity. Turning on the dynamic vegetation had a tendency of reducing 10-m wind simulation errors in all domains. The first nested domain (7,290 m resolution) showed the highest precipitation score, but showed little advantage compared with using the dynamic vegetation. On the other hand, the offline one-dimensional Noah-MP LSM simulation captured the site observed pattern and magnitude of radiative fluxes and soil moisture, and it left room for further improvement through supplementing the model input of leaf area index and finding a proper combination of model physics.

Analysis of Changes in Photosynthetic Ability, Photosystem II Activity, and Canopy Temperature Factor in Response to Drought S tress on Native Prunus maximowiczii and Prunus serrulate (자생 산개벚나무, 잔털벚나무의 건조 스트레스에 따른 광합성 및 광계II 활성, 엽온 인자 변화 분석)

  • Jin, Eon-Ju;Yoon, Jun-Hyuck;Bae, Eun-Ji
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.3
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    • pp.405-417
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to describe the photosynthetic features of Prunus maximowiczii and Prunus serrulate Lindl. var. pubescens (Makino) Nakai in response to drought stress. Specifically, we studied the effects of drought on photosynthetic ability and photosystem II activity. Drought stress (DS) was induced by cutting the water supply for 30 days. DS decreased the moisture contents in the soil, and between the 10th and 12th days of DS, both species had 10% or less of x., After the 15th day of DS, it was less than 5%, which is a condition for disease to start. We observed a remarkable decrease of maximum photosynthesis rate starting from 10th day of DS; the light compensation point was also remarkable. Dark respiration and net apparent quantum yield decreased significantly on the 15th day of DS, and then increased on the 20th day. In addition, the stomatal transpiration rate of P. maximowiczii decreased significantly on the15th day of DS, and then increased on the 20th day. Water use efficiency increased on the 15th day of DS, and then decreased on the 20th day. The stomatal transpiration rate of P. serrulate decreased significantly on the 20th day of DS, and then increased afterward, while its water use efficiency increased on the 20th day of DS, and then decreased afterward. These results indicate that the closure of stoma prevented water loss, resulting in a temporary increase of water use efficiency. Chlorophyll fluorescence analysis detected remarkable decreases in the functional index (PIABS) and energy transfer efficiency in P. maximowiczii after the 15th day of DS. Meanwhile, photosystem II activity decreased in P. serrulate after 20 days of DS. In addition, Ts-Ta, PIABS, DIO/RC, ETO/RC followed similar trends as those of the soil moisture content and photosynthetic properties, indicating that they can be used as useful variables in predicting DS in trees.

Evaluation of K-Cabbage Model for Yield Prediction of Chinese Cabbage in Highland Areas (고랭지 배추 생산 예측을 위한 K-배추 모델 평가)

  • Seong Eun Lee;Hyun Hee Han;Kyung Hwan Moon;Dae Hyun Kim;Byung-Hyuk Kim;Sang Gyu Lee;Hee Ju Lee;Suhyun Ryu;Hyerim Lee;Joon Yong Shim;Yong Soon Shin;Mun Il Ahn;Hee Ae Lee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.398-403
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    • 2023
  • Process-based K-cabbage model is based on physiological processes such as photosynthesis and phenology, making it possible to predict crop growth under different climate conditions that have never been experienced before. Current first-stage process-based models can be used to assess climate impact through yield prediction based on climate change scenarios, but no comparison has been performed between big data obtained from the main production area and model prediction so far. The aim of this study was to find out the direction of model improvement when using the current model for yield prediction. For this purpose, model performance evaluation was conducted based on data collected from farmers growing 'Chungwang' cabbage in Taebaek and Samcheok, the main producing areas of Chinese cabbage in highland region. The farms surveyed in this study had different cultivation methods in terms of planting date and soil water and nutrient management. The results showed that the potential biomass estimated using the K-cabbage model exceeded the observed values in all cases. Although predictions and observations at the time of harvest did not show a complete positive correlation due to limitations caused by the use of fresh weight in the model evaluation process (R2=0.74, RMSE=866.4), when fitting the model based on the values 2 weeks before harvest, the growth suitability index was different for each farm. These results are suggested to be due to differences in soil properties and management practices between farms. Therefore, to predict attainable yields taking into account differences in soil and management practices between farms, it is necessary to integrate dynamic soil nutrient and moisture modules into crop models, rather than using arbitrary growth suitability indices in current K-cabbage model.

Change of the Vegetation Due to Soyanggang Dam Construction (소양강댐 건설에 따른 주변 식생의 변화)

  • Choi, Ho;Park, Pil-Sun;Kim, Jae-Geun;Suh, Sim-Eun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2010
  • Most of investigations about the effects of dam construction on the surrounding environments have focused mainly on the change of climate conditions and crop production. In order to research the effect of dam construction on the surrounding vegetation, we chose the Soyanggang dam whose storage capacity is the largest in Korea, and was built 33 years ago. We surveyed and analyzed the surrounding vegetation by using quadrat method and measured the soil moisture content among floodplain (FP), 5m above the flood plain (AFP) and control group (CG) which is 3km far from the lake through ridge. The largest value of mean importance percentage of the canopy~understory layer at FP was Salix koreensis (87.9%) and those of AFP and CG was Quercus mongolica (38.9% and 40.4% respectively) and the largest important percentage of the herb layer at FP was Artemisia capillaris (34.2%) and those of AFP and CG was Oplismenus undulatifolius var. undulatifolius (9.4% and 24.6% respectively). The Shannon-Wiener diversity index of shrub~canopy layer at FP (0.26) was lower than AFP (2.34) and CG (2.23) and there was not any significant difference in the herb layer among three groups. The S${\o}$rensen similarity index between FP and AFP, FP and CG was 0, and that of AFP and CG was relatively high. The highest density of tree and subtree with the DBH level of FP was S. koreensis of 5~10cm (240/ha), and that of AFP and CG was Quercus spp. of 15~20cm (400/ha and 466/ha respectively). And the highest density of seedlings of FP was Pinus densiflora (7,040/ha), and that of AFP and CG was Quercus spp. (720/ha and 400/ha respectively). The soil water content of FP (6.28%) was relatively lower than AFP and CG (11.13% and 10.14% respectively; p<.01). These results indicated that construction of Soyanggang dam changed the vegetation of the floodplain, without showing a change in its upland areas.

Ecological Changes of Insect-damaged Pinus densiflora Stands in the Southern Temperate Forest Zone of Korea (I) (솔잎혹파리 피해적송림(被害赤松林)의 생태학적(生態学的) 연구(研究) (I))

  • Yim, Kyong Bin;Lee, Kyong Jae;Kim, Yong Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.58-71
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    • 1981
  • Thecodiplosis japonesis is sweeping the Pinus densiflora forests from south-west to north-east direction, destroying almost all the aged large trees as well as even the young ones. The front line of infestation is moving slowly but ceaselessly norhwards as a long bottle front. Estimation is that more than 40 percent of the area of P. densiflora forest has been damaged already, however some individuals could escapes from the damage and contribute to restore the site to the previous vegetation composition. When the stands were attacked by this insect, the drastic openings of the upper story of tree canopy formed by exclusively P. densiflora are usually resulted and some environmental factors such as light, temperature, litter accumulation, soil moisture and offers were naturally modified. With these changes after insect invasion, as the time passes, phytosociologic changes of the vegetation are gradually proceeding. If we select the forest according to four categories concerning the history of the insect outbreak, namely, non-attacked (healthy forest), recently damaged (the outbreak occured about 1-2 years ago), severely damaged (occured 5-6 years ago), damage prolonged (occured 10 years ago) and restored (occured about 20 years ago), any directional changes of vegetation composition could be traced these in line with four progressive stages. To elucidate these changes, three survey districts; (1) "Gongju" where the damage was severe and it was outbroken in 1977, (2) "Buyeo" where damage prolonged and (3) "Gochang" as restored, were set, (See Tab. 1). All these were located in the south temperate forest zone which was delimited mainly due to the temporature factor and generally accepted without any opposition at present. In view of temperature, the amount and distribution of precipitation and various soil factor, the overall homogeneity of environmental conditions between survey districts might be accepted. However this did not mean that small changes of edaphic and topographic conditions and microclimates can induce any alteration of vegetation patterns. Again four survey plots were set in each district and inter plot distance was 3 to 4 km. And again four subplots were set within a survey plot. The size of a subplot was $10m{\times}10m$ for woody vegetation and $5m{\times}5m$ for ground cover vegetation which was less than 2 m high. The nested quadrat method was adopted. In sampling survey plots, the followings were taken into account: (1) Natural growth having more than 80 percent of crown density of upper canopy and more than 5 hectares of area. (2) Was not affected by both natural and artificial disturbances such as fire and thinning operation for the past three decades. (3) Lower than 500 m of altitude (4) Less than 20 degrees of slope, and (5) Northerly sited aspect. An intensive vegetation survey was undertaken during the summer of 1980. The vegetation was devided into 3 categories for sampling; the upper layer (dominated mainly by the pine trees), the middle layer composed by oak species and other broad-leaved trees as well as the pine, and the ground layer or the lower layer (shrubby form of woody plants). In this study our survey was concentrated on woody species only. For the vegetation analysis, calculated were values of intensity, frequency, covers, relative importance, species diversity, dominance and similarity and dissimilasity index when importance values were calculated, different relative weights as score were arbitrarily given to each layer, i.e., 3 points for the upper layer, 2 for the middle layer and 1 for the ground layer. Then the formula becomes as follows; $$R.I.V.=\frac{3(IV\;upper\;L.)+2(IV.\;middle\;L.)+1(IV.\;ground\;L.)}{6}$$ The values of Similarity Index were calculated on the basis of the Relative Importance Value of trees (sum of relative density, frequency and cover). The formula used is; $$S.I.=\frac{2C}{S_1+S_2}{\times}100=\frac{2C}{100+100}{\times}100=C(%)$$ Where: C = The sum of the lower of the two quantitative values for species shared by the two communities. $S_1$ = The sum of all values for the first community. $S_2$ = The sum of all values for the second community. In Tab. 3, the species composition of each plot by layer and by district is presented. Without exception, the species formed the upper layer of stands was Pinus densiflora. As seen from the table, the relative cover (%), density (number of tree per $500m^2$), the range of height and diameter at brest height and cone bearing tendency were given. For the middle layer, Quercus spp. (Q. aliena, serrata, mongolica, accutissina and variabilis) and Pinus densiflora were dominating ones. Genus Rhodedendron and Lespedeza were abundant in ground vegetation, but some oaks were involved also. (1) Gongju district The total of woody species appeared in this district was 26 and relative importance value of Pinus densiflora for the upper layer was 79.1%, but in the middle layer, the R.I.V. for Quercus acctissima, Pinus densiflora, and Quercus aliena, were 22.8%, 18.7% and 10.0%, respectively, and in ground vegetation Q. mongolica 17.0%, Q. serrata 16.8% Corylus heterophylla 11.8%, and Q. dentata 11.3% in order. (2) Buyeo district. The number of species enumerated in this district was 36 and the R.I.V. of Pinus densiflora for the uppper layer was 100%. In the middle layer, the R.I.V. of Q. variabilis and Q. serrata were 8.6% and 8.5% respectively. In the ground vegetative 24 species were counted which had no more than 5% of R.I.V. The mean R.I.V. of P.densiflora ( totaling three layers ) and averaging four plots was 57.7% in contrast to 46.9% for Gongju district. (3) Gochang-district The total number of woody species was 23 and the mean R.I.V. of Pinus densiflora was 66.0% showing greater value than those for two former districts. The next high value was 6.5% for Q. serrata. As the time passes since insect outbreak, the mean R.I.V. of P. densiflora increased as the following order, 46.9%, 57.7% and 66%. This implies that P. densiflora was getting back to its original dominat state again. The pooled importance of Genus Quercus was decreasing with the increase of that for Pinus densiflora. This trend was contradict to the facts which were surveyed at Kyonggi-do area (the central temperate forest zone) reported previously (Yim et al, 1980). Among Genus Quercus, Quercus acutissina, warm-loving species, was more abundant in the southern temperature zone to which the present research is concerned than the central temperate zone. But vice-versa was true with Q. mongolica, a cold-loving one. The species which are not common between the present survey and the previous report are Corpinus cordata, Beltala davurica, Wisturia floribunda, Weigela subsessilis, Gleditsia japonica var. koraiensis, Acer pseudosieboldianum, Euonymus japonica var. macrophylla, Ribes mandshuricum, Pyrus calleryana var. faruiei, Tilia amurensis and Pyrus pyrifolia. In Figure 4 and Table 5, Maximum species diversity (maximum H'), Species diversity (H') and Eveness (J') were presented. The Similarity indices between districts were shown in Tab. 5. Seeing Fig. 6, showing two-dimensional ordination of polts on the basis of X and Y coordinates, Ai plots aggregate at the left site, Bi plots at lower site, and Ci plots at upper-right site. The increasing and decreasing patterns as to Relative Density and Relative Importance Value by genus or species were given in Fig. 7. Some of the patterns presented here are not consistent with the previously reported ones (Yim, et al, 1980). The present authors would like to attribute this fact that two distinct types of the insect attack, one is the short war type occuring in the south temperate forest zone, which means that insect attack went for a few years only, the other one is a long-drawn was type observed at the temperate forest zone in which the insect damage went on continuously for several years. These different behaviours of infestation might have resulted the different ways of vegetational change. Analysing the similarity indices between districts, the very convincing results come out that the value of dissimilarity index between A and B was 30%, 27% between B and C and 35% between A and C (Table 6). The range of similarity index was obtained from the calculation of every possible combinations of plots between two districts. Longer time isolation between communities has brought the higher value of dissimilarity index. The main components of ground vegetation, 10 to 20 years after insect outbreak, become to be consisted of mainly Genus Lespedeza and Rhododendron. Genus Quercus which relate to the top dorminant state for a while after insect attack was giving its place to Pinus densiflora. It was implied that, provided that the soil fertility, soil moisture and soil depth were good enough, Genus Quercuss had never been so easily taken ever by the resistant speeies like Pinus densiflora which forms the edaphic climax at vast areas of forest land. Usually they refer Quercus to the representative component of the undisturbed natural forest in the central part of this country.

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Comparison of Fruit Quality of Apple 'Fuji' Produced in Different Three Areas in Taegu (대구시(大邱市) 인근 3지역(地域) 사과 '후지'의 과실품질(果實品質) 비교(比較))

  • Syn, Yeong Beom;Cha, Eun Kyoung;Hitoshi, Uematsu;Sakae, Kuboi;Yasumasa, Miura;Mikio, Sato
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.15
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    • pp.33-38
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    • 1997
  • This investigation was attemped to know fruit quality of apple 'Fuji' grown at three different areas of Taegu. Fruits were gathered from hill side area : Kyungsangpookdo yongchongun chongtongmynn synwonri, flat area : Kyungsangpookdo yongchongun synyoungmyun youujeongri and river side area : Kyungsangpookdo yongchongun kewmhoyeub naenhchundong. Results were as follows: 1. In fruit sampling, we made an effort to select the same size of fruit from all areas, However, the size at river side area was about 40g lighter and minimum length was shorter than those of the other areas. On the other hand, maximum and minimum diameter of the fruit at flat and river side areas were longer than hill side area. Accordingly, shape index of the fruit in river side area was flatter than the other areas. This difference may be due to temperture, soil moisture content, etc. In squeeze rate of the fruit, no significant difference was recognized among areas. 2. Though, rate of fructose in total sugar was almost 50% in all areas, sucrose, fructose and sorbitol concentration of hill side area were higher than the other areas. however glucose was reverse amd brix was almost same as total sugar concentration. 3. Rate of malic acid in total acid was almost 98% and citric acid was only 2% in all areas. Malic acid concentration of hill side area was higher than the other areas and titratable acid concentration was almost same as total acid.

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Application of Different Packaging Methods and Materials for Comparing Freshness of Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) harvested in Summer Season (고온기 결구상추의 포장재와 포장방법 적용에 따른 선도 비교)

  • Lee, Jung-Soo;Choi, JeeWon;Kim, Jin Se;Park, Me Hea;Choi, HyunJinn;Lee, YounSuk;Kim, Dong Eok;Hong, YuunPo;Kim, Ji-Gang
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.163-171
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    • 2017
  • Effects of different packaging methods for maintaining the shelf life and postharvest quality of iceberg lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) were studied after harvesting in summer season. Lettuce heads were packaged in plastic crate with or without different films such as (A) Individual lettuce head sealed packaging with linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) film; (B) Packaging lettuce head in plastic crate and wrapped with LLDPE film; (C): Individual lettuce head sealed packaging with perforated high density polyethylene (HDPE) film; (D) Packaging lettuce head in plastic crate and wrapped with perforated HDPE; and (E) Packaging lettuce head in plastic crate without any film (control), and stored at $2^{\circ}C$ for 35 days. Several quality parameters such as fresh weight loss, SPAD (soil & plant analyzer development) meter value, respiration rate, moisture content and appearance of lettuce were investigated. The lettuce wrapped with individually-sealed LLDPE film showed the lowest weight loss and the highest SPAD value rendering the best appearance index among the treataments throughout the three-week storage period at $2^{\circ}C$. Extending the freshness of iceberg lettuce during low temperature storage will definitely increase the salability potential in the domestic market even during summer season.

The Relative Importance and Priority of the Health Evaluation Indicators of Old-growth and Giant Trees (노거수의 건강 위험도 평가 요소간 상대적 중요도 및 우선순위)

  • Xia, Tian-Tian;Zhang, Zhong-Feng;Kang, Tai-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.149-159
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    • 2017
  • There are many studies on the health and protection of Old-growth and Giant Trees, concentrating on empirical judgment and basic protection measures. The problem this study addresses is the relative importance and priority of the health evaluation indicators of Old-growth and Giant Trees. Firstly, this study exports the evaluation indicators of Old-growth and Giant Trees. The evaluation system for the degree of danger of Old-growth and Giant Trees are composed of two layers: 5 fields and 46 indicators. Secondly, using the AHP and PCA method can determine the weight of each field and each index factor. The process of AHP establishes the relative importance judgment matrix of each field and fully proves that the main cause of danger is individual aging. The PCA method suggested that trunk rot status, light conditions, tree surgeries, bacterial diseases, and soil moisture level are the most important factors in each field. These aspects should be given priority in the management and protection of Old-growth and Giant Trees. Weight values obtained in this study seemed to be useful in the evaluation of Old-growth and Giant Trees.

Phytosociological Changes of Pinus densiflora Forest Induced by Insect Damage in Kyonggi-do Area (경기도지방(京畿道地方) 적송림(赤松林)의 식물사회학적(植物社會學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Yim, Kyong Bin;Park, In Hyeop;Lee, Kyong Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.56-71
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    • 1980
  • To study the changes of vegetational composition of each plant successional stage of Pinus densiflora forest caused by pine gall midge damage, Thecodiplosis japonensis, located in Kyonggi-do area, the middle part of Korea, four districts, Anseong, Yongin, Gwangju, and Gapyeong, were selected according to the length of insect damage duration. The forest in the Anseong district was the noninfested one selected as the check. And forests in Yongin, Gwangju, and Gapyeong were the recent]y damaged, severely damaged, and damage prolonged ones in sequence. It was considered that this order could be in concord with the gradual transition of plant successional stage. In view of temperature, precipitation and soil factors, these four districts were sited within the same environment. Four survey plots were selected from each district and the distance between them was 3~4 km. Then again four subplots were set within a plot. Through needle accumulation after insect infestation, light intensity, soil moisture content, and the amount of soil organic matter were increased and these conditions could create a favorable environment enabling the new species invasion and their growth. These were naturally closely related with the increase in quantity of Pinus densiflora defoliation. After considerable time lapse, the quantities of above mentioned factors decreased with the development of the new substitute tree species. It was found that Quercus mongolica was an excellently substitute tree species come first in this studied area. Species diversity increased to a degree at the early stage of the duration of pine gall midge damage and decreased thereafter. As the same manner, similarity index value between plots in the same district decreased to a degree and increased thereafter. This was linked admittedly with the increase and decrease of tree species and evenness. Synthesizing above mentioned results, the process of plant succession studied quantitatively by changes of relative density and relative importance value, it can be concluded that Pinus densiflora forest gives way to Genus Quercus forest in which Genus Lespedeza and Genus Rhododendron species become as subdominance species after removal of the Pinus densiflora trees damaged by pine gall midge.

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Evaluation of Land Use Change Impact on Hydrology and Water Quality Health in Geum River Basin (금강유역의 토지이용 변화가 수문·수질 건전성에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • LEE, Ji-Wan;PARK, Jong-Yoon;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.82-96
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    • 2019
  • This study evaluated the status of watershed health in Geum River Basin by SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrology and water quality. The watershed healthiness from watershed hydrology and stream water quality was calculated using multivariate normal distribution from 0(poor) to 1(good). Before evaluation of watershed healthiness, the SWAT calibration for 11 years(2005~2015) of streamflow(Q) at 5 locations with 0.50~0.77 average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency and suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen(T-N), and total phosphorus(T-P) at 3 locations with 0.67~0.94, 0.59~0.79, and 0.61~0.79 determination coefficient($R^2$) respectively. For 24 years (1985~2008) the spatiotemporal change of watershed healthiness was analyzed with calibarted SWAT and 5 land use data of 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2008. The 2008 SWAT results showed that the surface runoff increased by 40.6%, soil moisture and baseflow decreased by 6.8% and 3.0% respectively compared to 1985 reference year. The stream water quality of SS, T-N, and T-P increased by 29.2%, 9.3%, and 16.7% respectively by land development and agricultural activity. Based on the 1985 year land use condition. the 2008 watershed healthiness of hydrology and stream water quality decreased from 1 to 0.94 and 0.69 respectively. The results of this study be able to detect changes in watershed environment due to human activity compared to past natural conditions.