• 제목/요약/키워드: Social Scenario

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Analysis of Evacuation Time According to Variation of Evacuation Stairs' Width in Large-Scale Goshiwons (대규모 고시원의 피난계단 폭의 변화에 따른 피난소요시간 분석)

  • Oh, Su-cheol;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.641-651
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    • 2022
  • This research compares and analyzes evacuation time depending on the change in stair width in case of fire at Goshiwons. For this, a simulation has been conducted based on possible evacuation time according to the calculation method for the number of people admittable to a specific target for fire fighting equipped with accommodation. Currently, Gosiwon, which is classified as an accommodation facility (a total floor area of 500 m2 or more), uses blind spots prescribed by the Fire Services Act, Building Act, and Parking Act to build a high-rise building on a small area of land, and most Gosiwon is transformed into a modified accommodation. This is in line with the owner's operating profit, so it is expected to show a continuous increase. Securing the golden time of Gosiwon evacuation time is the last bastion of Gosiwon residents who belong to the economically disadvantaged in our society, and we hope this study will serve as a starting point for discussions on revising related laws and regulations to establish a social safety net As a result of the evacuation simulation analysis, the evacuation time was the least when the width of the group and the evacuation stairs were expanded to 200cm, and the evacuation time of the existing building was reduced by up to 166.3 seconds by comparing 648.4 seconds and scenario 6. This analysis can be meaningful, in that the width of the evacuation stairs revision of related laws and regulations for the safety of multiplex available premises.

A Study on the Mid- to Long-term Public Library Expansion Plan in Daegu City (대구시 중장기 공공도서관 확충방안 연구)

  • Hee-Yoon Yoon;Seon-Kyung Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.97-117
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest a mid- to long-term expansion plan to resolve the blind spot and alleviate the imbalance of public library services in Daegu City. The research methods for this purpose included literature review, related laws and statistical data analysis, case study, and opinion survey. As a result, the first service area was set as a total of 14 areas based on administrative districts(Jung-gu, Seo-gu, Nam-gu, and Dalseong-gun each have one, Dong-gu and Buk-gu each have two, and Suseong-gu and Dalseo-gu have three each). Second, the expansion scenario for public libraries in Daegu City was proposed to add 26 libraries by the final target year (2032) based on the trend of national library growth over the past 13 years (2008-2020) and the forecast for the next 10 years (2023-2032). Third, the construction scenarios for each basic local government, excluding the Daegu representative library, are as follows: One library each in Jung-gu, Seo-gu, and Nam-gu; two libraries in Suseong-gu; three libraries in Dalseong-gun; four libraries in Dong-gu; and seven libraries each in Buk-gu and Dalseo-gu. In terms of floor area, it is proposed to add a total of 17 branch libraries with a minimum legal standard of 330-2,499㎡, four central libraries with 2,500-4,999㎡ each, and four central libraries with 5,000-9,999㎡ each. On the premise of these conditions, Daegu City and public libraries should focus on creating an inclusive and open community space, creating a digital platform, strengthening the library operation and cooperation system centered on Daegu representative library, developing collections and specializing services for local hub libraries, enhancing various knowledge information and program services, managing key library indicators and improving social contribution.

Assessing habitat suitability for timber species in South Korea under SSP scenarios (SSP 시나리오에 따른 국내 용재수종의 서식지 적합도 평가)

  • Hyeon-Gwan Ahn;Chul-Hee Lim
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.567-578
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    • 2022
  • Various social and environmental problems have recently emerged due to global climate change. In South Korea, coniferous forests in the highlands are decreasing due to climate change whereas the distribution of subtropical species is gradually increasing. This study aims to respond to changes in the distribution of forest species in South Korea due to climate change. This study predicts changes in future suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obtusa cultivated as timber species based on climate, topography, and environment. Appearance coordinates were collected only for natural forests in consideration of climate suitability in the National Forest Inventory. Future climate data used the SSP scenario by KMA. Species distribution models were ensembled to predict future suitable habitat areas for the base year(2000-2019), near future(2041-2060), and distant future(2081-2100). In the baseline period, the highly suitable habitat for Pinus koraiensis accounted for approximately 13.87% of the country. However, in the distant future(2081-2100), it decreased to approximately 0.11% under SSP5-8.5. For Cryptomeria japonica, the habitat for the base year was approximately 7.08%. It increased to approximately 18.21% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. In the case of Chamaecyparis obtusa, the habitat for the base year was approximately 19.32%. It increased to approximately 90.93% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. Pinus koraiensis, which had been planted nationwide, gradually moved north due to climate change with suitable habitats in South Korea decreased significantly. After the near future, Pinus koraiensis was not suitable for the afforestation as timber species in South Korea. Chamaecyparis obtusa can be replaced in most areas. In the case of Cryptomeria japonica, it was assessed that it could replace part of the south and central region.

Economic Feasibility of REDD Project for Preventing Deforestation in North Korea (북한 산림전용 방지수단으로서의 REDD 사업의 경제적 타당성 분석)

  • Jo, Jang Hwan;KOO, Ja Choon;Youn, Yeo Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.4
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    • pp.630-638
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    • 2011
  • This study aims to verify the economic validity of the REDD project in North Korea by estimating the potential carbon credits and the cost of REDD project. The REDD potential credits of North Korea are estimated based on the international statistics of forest area and population from 1990 to 2010, and the cost of REDD project is estimated indirectly by annual land opportunity cost of agriculture assuming that South Korea will aid the food production per area in North Korea. When the 25% reduction scenario was applied to the annual deforestation rate in North Korea, the potential REDD credits were estimated to be $4,232million{\sim}5,290milliontCO_2eq.$ for 20 years. It would account for 28~35% of South Korea's national medium-term greenhouse gas reduction target. On the other hand, the break-even price of REDD project was calculated as the profit of agriculture in the land available by forest conversion in North Korea. It was estimated to be 19.19$/$tCO_2eq.$ when the non-permanence risk of forest conserved through a REDD contract is assumed to be 20%. This price is higher than the price of REDD carbon credit 5$/$tCO_2eq.$ dealt in the 2010 voluntary carbon market, leading to no economic feasibility. However, REDD project provides co-benefits besides climate mitigation. As previous studies indicate, the break-even price is lower than 20$/$tCO_2eq.$, which is the social marginal cost of greenhouse gas emissions by loss of forest. Therefore REDD in North Korea can be justified against the social benefits. The economic feasibility of REDD project in North Korea can be largely influenced by the risk percentage. Thus, North Korean REDD project needs a strong guarantee and involvement by the government and people of North Korea to assure the project's economic feasibility.

Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario (백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정)

  • Lee, Yun-Jung;Kim, Su-Do;Chun, Joonseok;Woo, Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.515-523
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    • 2013
  • The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

The Effects of Psychological Contract Violation on OS User's Betrayal Behaviors: Window XP Technical Support Ending Case (심리적 계약 위반이 OS이용자의 배신 행동에 미치는 영향: 윈도우 XP 기술적 지원서비스 중단 사례)

  • Lee, Un-Kon
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.325-344
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    • 2014
  • Technical support of Window XP ended in March, 8, 2014, and it makes OS(Operating System) users fall in a state of confusion. Sudden decision making of OS upgrade and replacement is not a simple problem. Firms need to change the long term capacity plan in enterprise IS management, but they are pressed for time and cost to complete it. Individuals can not help selecting the second best plan, because the following OSs of Window XP are below expectations in performances, new PC sales as the opportunities of OS upgrade decrease, and the potential risk of OS technical support ending had not announced to OS users at the point of purchase. Microsoft as the OS vendors had not presented precaution or remedy for this confusion. Rather, Microsoft announced that the technical support of the other following OSs of Wndow XP such as Window 7 would ended in two years. This conflict between OS vendor and OS users could not happen in one time, but could recur in recent future. Although studies on the ways of OS user protection policy would be needed to escape from this conflict, few prior studies had conducted this issue. This study had challenge to cautiously investigate in such OS user's reactions as the confirmation with OS user's expectation in the point of purchase, three types of justice perception on the treatment of OS vendor, psychological contract violation, satisfaction and the other betrayal behavioral intention in the case of Window XP technical support ending. By adopting the justice perception on this research, and by empirically validating the impact on OS user's reactions, I could suggest the direction of establishing OS user protection policy of OS vendor. Based on the expectation-confirmation theory, the theory of justice, literatures about psychological contract violation, and studies about consumer betrayal behaviors in the perspective of Herzberg(1968)'s dual factor theory, I developed the research model and hypothesis. Expectation-confirmation theory explain that consumers had expectation on the performance of product in the point of sale, and they could satisfied with their purchase behaviors, when the expectation could have confirmed in the point of consumption. The theory of justice in social exchange argues that treatee could be willing to accept the treatment by treater when the three types of justice as distributive, procedural, and interactional justice could be established in treatment. Literatures about psychological contract violation in human behaviors explains that contracter in a side could have the implied contract (also called 'psychological contract') which the contracter in the other side would sincerely execute the contract, and that they are willing to do vengeance behaviors when their contract had unfairly been broken. When the psychological contract of consumers had been broken, consumers feel distrust with the vendors and are willing to decrease such beneficial attitude and behavior as satisfaction, loyalty and repurchase intention. At the same time, consumers feel betrayal and are willing to increase such retributive attitude and behavior as negative word-of-mouth, complain to the vendors, complain to the third parties for consumer protection. We conducted a scenario survey in order to validate our research model at March, 2013, when is the point of news released firstly and when is the point of one year before the acture Window XP technical support ending. We collected the valid data from 238 voluntary participants who are the OS users but had not yet exposed the news of Window OSs technical support ending schedule. The subject had been allocated into two groups and one of two groups had been exposed this news. The data had been analyzed by the MANOVA and PLS. MANOVA results indicate that the OSs technical support ending could significantly decrease all three types of justice perception. PLS results indicated that it could significantly increase psychological contract violation and that this increased psychological contract violation could significantly reduce the trust and increase the perceived betrayal. Then, it could significantly reduce satisfaction, loyalty, and repurchase intention, and it also could significantly increase negative word-of-month intention, complain to the vendor intention, and complain to the third party intention. All hypothesis had been significantly approved. Consequently, OS users feel that the OSs technical support ending is not natural value added service ending, but the violation of the core OS purchase contract, that it could be the posteriori prohibition of OS user's OS usage right, and that it could induce the psychological contract violation of OS users. This study would contributions to introduce the psychological contract violation of the OS users from the OSs technical support ending in IS field, to introduce three types of justice as the antecedents of psychological contract violation, and to empirically validate the impact of psychological contract violation both on the beneficial and retributive behavioral intentions of OS users. For practice, the results of this study could contribute to make more comprehensive OS user protection policy and consumer relationship management practices of OS vendor.

Spatio-Temporal Incidence Modeling and Prediction of the Vector-Borne Disease Using an Ecological Model and Deep Neural Network for Climate Change Adaption (기후 변화 적응을 위한 벡터매개질병의 생태 모델 및 심층 인공 신경망 기반 공간-시간적 발병 모델링 및 예측)

  • Kim, SangYoun;Nam, KiJeon;Heo, SungKu;Lee, SunJung;Choi, JiHun;Park, JunKyu;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.197-208
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    • 2020
  • This study was carried out to analyze spatial and temporal incidence characteristics of scrub typhus and predict the future incidence of scrub typhus since the incidences of scrub typhus have been rapidly increased among vector-borne diseases. A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ecological model was implemented to predict spatial distribution and incidence rate of scrub typhus using spatial data sets on environmental and social variables. Additionally, relationships between the incidence of scrub typhus and critical spatial data were analyzed. Elevation and temperature were analyzed as dominant spatial factors which influenced the growth environment of Leptotrombidium scutellare (L. scutellare) which is the primary vector of scrub typhus. A temporal number of diseases by scrub typhus was predicted by a deep neural network (DNN). The model considered the time-lagged effect of scrub typhus. The DNN-based prediction model showed that temperature, precipitation, and humidity in summer had significant influence factors on the activity of L. scutellare and the number of diseases at fall. Moreover, the DNN-based prediction model had superior performance compared to a conventional statistical prediction model. Finally, the spatial and temporal models were used under climate change scenario. The future characteristics of scrub typhus showed that the maximum incidence rate would increase by 8%, areas of the high potential of incidence rate would increase by 9%, and disease occurrence duration would expand by 2 months. The results would contribute to the disease management and prediction for the health of residents in terms of public health.

Analysis of Climate Change Researches Related to Water Resources in the Korean Peninsula (한반도 수자원분야 기후변화 연구동향 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Oh;Kang, Noel
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2012
  • The global warming is probably the most significant issue of concern all over the world and according to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average temperature and extent of global warming around the globe have been on the rise and so have the uncertainty for the future. Such effects of global warming have adverse effects on basic foundation of the mankind in numerous ways and water resource is no exception. The researches on water resources assessment for climate change are significant enough to be used as the preliminary data for researches in other fields. In this research, a total of 124 peer-reviewed publications and 57 reports on the subject of research on climate change related to water resources, that has been carried out so far in Korea has been reviewed. The research on climate change in Korea (inclusive of the peer-reviewed articles and reports) has mainly focused on the future projection and assessment. In the fields of hydrometeorology tendency and projection, the analysis has been carried out with focus on surface water, flood, etc. for hydrological variables and precipitation, temperature, etc. for meteorological variables. This can be attributed to the large, seasonal deviation in the amount of rainfall and the difficulty of water resources management, which is why, the analysis and research have been carried out with focus on those variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, flood, etc. which are directly related to water resources. The future projection of water resources in Korea may differ from region to region; however, variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, etc. have shown a tendency for increase; especially, it has been shown that whereas the number of casualties due to flood or drought decreases, property damage has been shown to increase. Despite the fact that the intensity of rainfall, temperature, and discharge amount are anticipated to rise, appropriate measures to address such vulnerabilities in water resources or management of drainage area of future water resources have not been implemented as yet. Moreover, it has been found that the research results on climate change that have been carried out by different bodies in Korea diverge significantly, which goes to show that many inherent uncertainties exist in the various stage of researches. Regarding the strategy in response to climate change, the voluntary response by an individual or a corporate entity has been found to be inadequate owing to the low level of awareness by the citizens and the weak social infrastructure for responding to climate change. Further, legal or systematic measures such as the governmental campaign on the awareness of climate change or the policy to offer incentives for voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions have been found to be insufficient. Lastly, there has been no case of any research whatsoever on the anticipated effects on the economy brought about by climate change, however, there are a few cases of on-going researches. In order to establish the strategy to prepare for and respond to the anticipated lack of water resources resulting from climate change, there is no doubt that a standardized analysis on the effects on the economy should be carried out first and foremost.

A Study on the Utilization of Naval Personnel According to Characteristics of New Generations: Discussion from the Perspective of Generation Z, a Newly Emerging Generation (신세대의 특성에 따른 해군 인력 활용의 과제 - 또 다른 신세대, Z세대 관점에서의 고찰)

  • Min, Seung-Un;Kim, Seong-Yeol
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.57-82
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    • 2022
  • The objective of this treatise is to explore the limitations of the current navy manpower utilization system and the ways to improve it from the perspective of Generation Z. As Generation Z, following Millennials, has finally come of age, this new group is constituting a gradually greater proportion of military personnel. Due to the typical characteristics of naval operations, the harmony between Millennials and Generation Z, which is differentiated from Generation X in view of dispositions and traits, is one of the essential issues to be discussed. Generally, in a naval vessel, there are numerous pieces of equipment necessary to carry out a wide range of missions and a large number of crew members who operate them with consistent levels of fighting power. This is all while members are living together within the narrow space throughout the 24 hours of each day. Under such particular circumstances, any inter-generational conflicts may have a disruptive effect on the successful accomplishment of naval missions. Currently, new generations of military personnel are facing social difficulties in different aspects compared with the previous generations, and also have different viewpoints on the military. In this regard, in order to foster true harmony between generations, it is considered necessary to take a closer look at the inter-generational differences from their respective standpoints and to examine whether the military organization has taken adequate steps to respond to such changes. Accordingly, Chapters 1 and 2 cover the environments in which Millennials and Generation Z were raised during their childhood to young adulthood, which are distinct from those of older generations, their viewpoints formed based on such backgrounds, and the need to resolve various conflicts between generations. In Chapter 3, the current actions taken by overseas military powers to enhance the coexistence with Generation MZ are analyzed to find the significant implications they had. Chapter 4 examines the operation environments specific to the navy; identifies the potential barriers to achieving harmony between generations by assessing the current status of personnel utilization in the Korean navy in terms of the seaman, petty officer, and the officer, as well as policy; and outlines the solutions to drive harmony. Finally, Chapter 5 emphasizes the need to establish a genuine empathy between generations based on the understanding of unique inter-generational characteristics. This section also discusses the importance of addressing difficulties in utilizing technology-centered naval manpower, and forecasts a scenario of a naval organization that resolves the problem of utilizing naval personnel and the inter-generational conflicts in the future.

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Influence of identifiable victim effect on third-party's punishment and compensation judgments (인식 가능한 피해자 효과가 제3자의 처벌 및 보상 판단에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, InBeom;Kim, ShinWoo;Li, Hyung-Chul O.
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.135-153
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    • 2020
  • Identifiable victim effect refers to the tendency of greater sympathy and helping behavior to identifiable victims than to abstract, unidentifiable ones. This research tested whether this tendency also affects third-party's punishment and compensation judgments in jury context for public's legal judgments. In addition, through the Identifiable victim effect in such legal judgment, we intended to explain the effect of 'the bill named for victim', putting the victim's real name and identity at the forefront, which is aimed at strengthening the punishment of related crimes by gaining public attention and support. To do so, we conducted experiments with hypothetical traffic accident scenarios that controlled legal components while manipulating victim's identifying information. In experiment 1, each participant read a scenario of an anonymous victim (unidentifiable condition) or a nonanonymous victim that included personal information such as name and age (identifiable condition) and made judgments on the degree of punishment and compensation. The results showed no effect of identifiability on third-party's punishment and compensation judgments, but moderation effect of BJW was obtained in the identifiable condition. That is, those with higher BJW showed greater tendency of punishment and compensation for identifiable victims. In Experiment 2, we compared an anonymous victim (unidentifiable condition) against a well-conducted victim (positive condition) and ill-conducted victim (negative condition) to test the effects of victim's characteristics on punishment for offender and compensation for victims. The results showed lower compensation for an ill-conducted victim than for an anonymous one. In addition, across all conditions except for negative condition, participants made punishment and compensation judgments higher than the average judicial precedents of 10-point presented in the rating scale. This research showed that victim's characteristics other than legal components affects third-party's legal decision making. Furthermore, we interpreted third-party's tendency to impose higher punishment and compensation with effect of 'the bill named for victim' and proposed social and legal discussion for and future research.

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