Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.20 no.1
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- pp.35-48
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- 2014
According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.
East Coast Gut, Korean shamanism ritual on its east coastal area, is a Gut held in fishing villages alongside Korean east coastal area from Goseong area in Gangwon-Do to Busan area. East Coast Gut is performed in a series mainly by a successor shaman, Korean shaman, who hasn't received any spiritual power from a God, and the implications of this thesis lie in that we look over the learning aspects of Seokchool Kim shaman group among other East Coast Gut successor shaman groups after dividing it into 2 categories, successor shaman and learner shaman and based upon this, we reveal the meaning of the learning aspects of East Coast Gut. For successor shamans, home means the field of education. Since they are little, they chased Gut events performing dance in a series to accumulate onsite experiences. However, in the families of successor shamans that have passed their shaman work down from generation to generation, their descendents didn't inherit shaman work any longer, which changed the way of succession and learning of shaman work. Since 1980's, Gut has been officially acknowledged as a kind of general art embracing songs, dance and music and designated as a cultural asset of the state and each city and province, and at art universities, it was adopted as a required course for its related major, which caused new learner shamans who majored in shamanism to emerge. These learner shamans are taking systematical succession lessons on the performance skills of East Coast Byeolshin Gut at universities, East Coast Byeolshin Gut preservation community, any places where Guts are held and etc.. As changes along time, the successor shamans accepted the learner shamans to pass shaman work down and changes appeared in the notion of towners who accept the performer groups of Gut and Gut itself. Unlike the past, as Gut has been acknowledged as the origin of Korean traditional arts and as the product of compresensive learning on songs, dance and music and it was designated as a national intangible cultural asset, shaman's social status and personal pride and dignity has become very high. As shaman has become positioned as the traditional artist getting both national and international recognition unlike its past image of getting despised, at the site of Gut event or even in the relation with towners, their status and the treatment they get became far different. Even towners, along with shift in shaman groups' generation, take position to acknowledge and accept the addition of new learning elements unlike the past. Even in every town, rather than just insisting on the type or the event purpose of traditional Gut, they think over on the type of festival and the main direction of a variety of Guts with which all of towners can mingle with each other. They are trying to find new meanings in the trend of changing Gut and the adaptation of new generation to this. In our reality of Gut events getting minimalized along with rapid change of times, East Coast Gut is still very actively performed in a series until now compared to Guts in other regions. This is because following the successor shamans who have struggled to preserve the East Coast Gut, the learner shamans are actively inflowing and the series performance groups preserve the origin of Gut and try hard to use Gut as art contents. Besides, the learner shamans systematically organize what they learned on shamanism from the successor shamans and get prepared and try to hand it down to descendents in the closest possible way to preserve its origin. In the future, East Coast Gut will be succeeded by the learner shamans from the last successor shamans to inherit its tradition and develop it to adapt to the times.
The purpose of this paper is to review the representative Buddhist policies enforced during the reign of Gwanghaegun (光海君), the 15th king of the Joseon Dynasty, and the aspects of the Buddhist community affected by them. Through this, the influence and dynamism of Buddhism during the reign of Gwanghaegun will be revealed. Some of the findings will run contrary to what is popularly known about Joseon Buddhism and the policy of Sungyueokbul (崇儒抑佛), 'Revering Confucianism and Supressing Buddhism.' During the Joseon Dynasty, Neo-Confucianism was taken as an ideological background, and consequently, Buddhism was ostracized by the ruling class who advocated the exclusion of heretical views. This also characterized King Gwanghaegun's reign during the Mid-Joseon Dynasty. In reality though, the ruling class held mixed opinions about Buddhism, and this influenced the Buddhist community in the Gwanghaegun Period. The military might of Japan demonstrated during the Japanese Invasion of Korea in 1592, led the ruling class to recognize Buddhism, and as a result, the status of Buddhism rose to a certain extent. Based on its elevated status and the aftermath of the Japanese Invasion of Korea, the Buddhist community engaged in social welfare activities inspired by the notion of requiting favors, and the Buddhist community gained recognition for providing relief services. As a result, the number of monks increased, and the economic situation improved as land ownership was granted to temples and monks. This is the means by which the Japanese Invasion of Korea influenced the Buddhist policies of the Gwanghaegun Period and changed the religious topography of Buddhism. During the reign of King Gwanghaegun, the ruling class regarded Buddhism as heretical, but offered posthumous titles to monks who engaged in meritorious services during the Japanese invasions of 1592~1598. Favorable and/or preferential treatment was also granted to some Buddhist monks. In addition, monks began to perform labor projects that demanded organizational and physical strength, such as those which related to national defense and architecture. However, throughout the Gwanghaegun Period, the monks were paid a certain amount of compensation for their labor, and the monks' responsibility for labor increased. This can be understood as a partial reconciliation with Buddhism or an acceptance of Buddhism rather than the suppression of Buddhism often presented by historians. As for policies which affected Buddhism, the Buddhist community showed signs of cooperation with the ruling class, the creation and reconstruction of temples, and the production of Buddhist art. Through close ties with the ruling class, Buddhism during the Gwanghaegun Period saw the Buddhist community actively responded policies that impacted Buddhism, and this allowed their religious orders to be maintained. In this way, it was also confirmed that the monk, Buhyu Seonsu (浮休 善修) and his disciple Byeogam Gakseong (碧巖 覺性), took up leadership roles in their Buddhist community. The Buddhist-aimed policies of Gwanghaegun were implemented against the backdrop of the Buddhist community, wherein the ruling class held mixed opinions regarding Buddhism. As such, both improvements and set backs for Buddhism could be observed during that time period. The ruling class actively utilized the organizational power of Buddhism for national defense and civil engineering after the Japanese invasions of 1592~1598. Out of gratitude, they implemented appropriate compensation for the Buddhists involved. The Buddhist community also responded to policies that affected them through exchanges with the ruling class. They succeeded in securing funds and support to repair and produce Buddhist temples and artworks. A thoughtful inspection of the policies towards and responses to Buddhism during the Gwanghaegun Period, shows that Buddhism actually enjoyed considerable organizational power and influence. This flies in the face of the general description of Joseon Buddhism as "Sungyueokbul (revering Confucianism and supressing Buddhism)."
In MIS field, the researches on payment services are focused on adoption factors of payment service using behavior theories such as TRA(Theory of Reasoned Action), TAM(Technology Acceptance Model), and TPB (Theory of Planned Behavior). The previous researches presented various adoption factors according to types of payment service, nations, culture and so on even though adoption factors of identical payment service were presented differently by researchers. The payment service industry relatively has strong path dependency to the existing payment methods so that the research results on the identical payment service are different due to payment culture of nation. This paper aims to suggest a successful adoption factor of noble payment service regardless of nation's culture and characteristics of payment and prove it. In previous researches, common adoption factors of payment service are convenience, ease of use, security, convenience, speed etc. But real cases prove the fact that adoption factors that the previous researches present are not always critical to success to penetrate a market. For example, PayByPhone, NFC based parking payment service, successfully has penetrated to early market and grown. In contrast, Google Wallet service failed to be adopted to users despite NFC based payment method which provides convenience, security, ease of use. As shown in upper case, there remains an unexplained aspect. Therefore, the present research question emerged from the question: "What is the more essential and fundamental factor that should takes precedence over factors such as provides convenience, security, ease of use for successful penetration to market". With these cases, this paper analyzes four cases predicted on the following hypothesis and demonstrates it. "To successfully penetrate a market and sustainably grow, new payment service should find non-customer of the existing payment service and provide noble payment method so that they can use payment method". We give plausible explanations for the hypothesis using multiple case studies. Diners club, Danal, PayPal, Square were selected as a typical and successful cases in each category of payment service. The discussion on cases is primarily non-customer analysis that noble payment service targets on to find the most crucial factor in the early market, we does not attempt to consider factors for business growth. We clarified three-tier non-customer of the payment method that new payment service targets on and elaborated how new payment service satisfy them. In case of credit card, this payment service target first tier of non-customer who can't pay for because they don't have any cash temporarily but they have regular income. So credit card provides an opportunity which they can do economic activities by delaying the date of payment. In a result of wireless phone payment's case study, this service targets on second of non-customer who can't use online payment because they concern about security or have to take a complex process and learn how to use online payment method. Therefore, wireless phone payment provides very convenient payment method. Especially, it made group of young pay for a little money without a credit card. Case study result of PayPal, online payment service, shows that it targets on second tier of non-customer who reject to use online payment service because of concern about sensitive information leaks such as passwords and credit card details. Accordingly, PayPal service allows users to pay online without a provision of sensitive information. Final Square case result, Mobile POS -based payment service, also shows that it targets on second tier of non-customer who can't individually transact offline because of cash's shortness. Hence, Square provides dongle which function as POS by putting dongle in earphone terminal. As a result, four cases made non-customer their customer so that they could penetrate early market and had been extended their market share. Consequently, all cases supported the hypothesis and it is highly probable according to 'analytic generation' that case study methodology suggests. We present for judging the quality of research designs the following. Construct validity, internal validity, external validity, reliability are common to all social science methods, these have been summarized in numerous textbooks(Yin, 2014). In case study methodology, these also have served as a framework for assessing a large group of case studies (Gibbert, Ruigrok & Wicki, 2008). Construct validity is to identify correct operational measures for the concepts being studied. To satisfy construct validity, we use multiple sources of evidence such as the academic journals, magazine and articles etc. Internal validity is to seek to establish a causal relationship, whereby certain conditions are believed to lead to other conditions, as distinguished from spurious relationships. To satisfy internal validity, we do explanation building through four cases analysis. External validity is to define the domain to which a study's findings can be generalized. To satisfy this, replication logic in multiple case studies is used. Reliability is to demonstrate that the operations of a study -such as the data collection procedures- can be repeated, with the same results. To satisfy this, we use case study protocol. In Korea, the competition among stakeholders over mobile payment industry is intensifying. Not only main three Telecom Companies but also Smartphone companies and service provider like KakaoTalk announced that they would enter into mobile payment industry. Mobile payment industry is getting competitive. But it doesn't still have momentum effect notwithstanding positive presumptions that will grow very fast. Mobile payment services are categorized into various technology based payment service such as IC mobile card and Application payment service of cloud based, NFC, sound wave, BLE(Bluetooth Low Energy), Biometric recognition technology etc. Especially, mobile payment service is discontinuous innovations that users should change their behavior and noble infrastructure should be installed. These require users to learn how to use it and cause infra-installation cost to shopkeepers. Additionally, payment industry has the strong path dependency. In spite of these obstacles, mobile payment service which should provide dramatically improved value as a products and service of discontinuous innovations is focusing on convenience and security, convenience and so on. We suggest the following to success mobile payment service. First, non-customers of the existing payment service need to be identified. Second, needs of them should be taken. Then, noble payment service provides non-customer who can't pay by the previous payment method to payment method. In conclusion, mobile payment service can create new market and will result in extension of payment market.
The paintings Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Chongseokjeong Pavilion were recently donated to the National Museum of Korea and unveiled to the public for the first time at the 2019 special exhibition "Through the Eyes of Joseon Painters: Real Scenery Landscapes of Korea." These two paintings carry significant implications for understanding Joseon art history. Because the fact that they were components of a folding screen produced after a sightseeing tour of the Gwandong regions in 1557 has led to a broadening of our understanding of sixteenth-century landscape painting. This paper explores the art historical meanings of Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Chongseokjeong Pavilion by examining the contents in the two paintings, dating them, analyzing their stylistic characteristics, and comparing them with other works. The production background of Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Chongseokjeong Pavilion can be found in the colophon of Chongseokjeong Pavilion. According to this writing, Sangsanilro, who is presumed to be Park Chung-gan (?-1601) in this paper, and Hong Yeon(?~?) went sightseeing around Geumgangsan Mountain (or Pungaksan Mountain) and the Gwandong region in the spring of 1557, wrote a travelogue, and after some time produced a folding screen depicting several famous scenic spots that they visited. Hong Yeon, whose courtesy name was Deokwon, passed the special civil examination in 1551 and has a record of being active until 1584. Park Chung-gan, whose pen name was Namae, reported the treason of Jeong Yeo-rip in 1589. In recognition of this meritorious deed, he was promoted to the position of Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Punishments, rewarded with the title of first-grade pyeongnan gongsin(meritorious subject who resolved difficulties), and raised to Lord of Sangsan. Based on the colophon to Chongseokjeong Pavilion, I suggest that the two paintings Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Chongseokjeong Pavilion were painted in the late sixteenth century, more specifically after 1557 when Park Chung-gan and Hong Yeon went on their sightseeing trip and after 1571 when Park, who wrote the colophon, was in his 50s or over. The painting style used in depicting the landscapes corresponds to that of the late sixteenth century. The colophon further states that Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Chongseokjeong Pavilion were two paintings of a folding screen. Chongseokjeong Pavilion with its colophon is thought to have been the final panel of this screen. The composition of Gyeongpodae Pavilion recalls the onesided three-layered composition often used in early Joseon landscape paintings in the style of An Gyeon. However, unlike such landscape paintings in the An Gyeon style, Gyeongpodae Pavilion positions and depicts the scenery in a realistic manner. Moreover, diverse perspectives, including a diagonal bird's-eye perspective and frontal perspective, are employed in Gyeongpodae Pavilion to effectively depict the relations among several natural features and the characteristics of the real scenery around Gyeongpodae Pavilion. The shapes of the mountains and the use of moss dots can be also found in Welcoming an Imperial Edict from China and Chinese Envoys at Uisungwan Lodge painted in 1557 and currently housed in the Kyujanggak Institute for Korean Studies at Seoul National University. Furthermore, the application of "cloud-head" texture strokes as well as the texture strokes with short lines and dots used in paintings in the An Gyeon style are transformed into a sense of realism. Compared to the composition of Gyeongpodae Pavilion, which recalls that of traditional Joseon early landscape painting, the composition of Chongseokjeong Pavilion is remarkably unconventional. Stone pillars lined up in layers with the tallest in the center form a triangle. A sense of space is created by dividing the painting into three planes(foreground, middle-ground, and background) and placing the stone pillars in the foreground, Saseonbong Peaks in the middle-ground, and Saseonjeong Pavilion on the cliff in the background. The Saseonbong Peaks in the center occupy an overwhelming proportion of the picture plane. However, the vertical stone pillars fail to form an organic relation and are segmented and flat. The painter of Chongseokjeong Pavilion had not yet developed a three-dimensional or natural spatial perception. The white lower and dark upper portions of the stone pillars emphasize their loftiness. The textures and cracks of the dense stone pillars were rendered by first applying light ink to the surfaces and then adding fine lines in dark ink. Here, the tip of the brush is pressed at an oblique angle and pulled down vertically, which shows an early stage of the development of axe-cut texture strokes. The contrast of black and white and use of vertical texture strokes signal the forthcoming trend toward the Zhe School painting style. Each and every contour and crack on the stone pillars is unique, which indicates an effort to accentuate their actual characteristics. The birds sitting above the stone pillars, waves, and the foam of breaking waves are all vividly described, not simply in repeated brushstrokes. The configuration of natural features shown in the above-mentioned Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Chongseokjeong Pavilion changes in other later paintings of the two scenic spots. In the Gyeongpodae Pavilion, Jukdo Island is depicted in the foreground, Gyeongpoho Lake in the middle-ground, and Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Odaesan Mountain in the background. This composition differs from the typical configuration of other Gyeongpodae Pavilion paintings from the eighteenth century that place Gyeongpodae Pavilion in the foreground and the sea in the upper section. In Chongseokjeong Pavilion, stone pillars are illustrated using a perspective viewing them from the sea, while other paintings depict them while facing upward toward the sea. These changes resulted from the established patterns of compositions used in Jeong Seon(1676~1759) and Kim Hong-do(1745~ after 1806)'s paintings of Gwandong regions. However, the configuration of the sixteenth-century Gyeongpodae Pavilion, which seemed to have no longer been used, was employed again in late Joseon folk paintings such as Gyeongpodae Pavilion in Gangneung. Famous scenic spots in the Gwandong region were painted from early on. According to historical records, they were created by several painters, including Kim Saeng(711~?) from the Goryeo Dynasty and An Gyeon(act. 15th C.) from the early Joseon period, either on a single scroll or over several panels of a folding screen or several leaves of an album. Although many records mention the production of paintings depicting sites around the Gwandong region, there are no other extant examples from this era beyond the paintings of Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Chongseokjeong Pavilion discussed in this paper. These two paintings are thought to be the earliest works depicting the Gwandong regions thus far. Moreover, they hold art historical significance in that they present information on the tradition of producing folding screens on the Gwandong region. In particular, based on the contents of the colophon written for Chongseokjeong Pavilion, the original folding screen is presumed to have consisted of eight panels. This proves that the convention of painting eight views of Gwangdong had been established by the late sixteenth century. All of the existing works mentioned as examples of sixteenth-century real scenery landscape painting show only partial elements of real scenery landscape painting since they were created as depictions of notable social gatherings or as a documentary painting for practical and/or official purposes. However, a primary objective of the paintings of Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Chongseokjeong Pavilion was to portray the ever-changing and striking nature of this real scenery. Moreover, Park Chung-gan wrote a colophon and added a poem on his admiration of the scenery he witnessed during his trip and ruminated over the true character of nature. Thus, unlike other previously known real-scenery landscape paintings, these two are of great significance as examples of real-scenery landscape paintings produced for the simple appreciation of nature. Gyeongpodae Pavilion and Chongseokjeong Pavilion are noteworthy in that they are the earliest remaining examples of the historical tradition of reflecting a sightseeing trip in painting accompanied by poetry. Furthermore, and most importantly, they broaden the understanding of Korean real-scenery landscape painting by presenting varied forms, compositions, and perspectives from sixteenth-century real-scenery landscape paintings that had formerly been unfound.