• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.10
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• pp.723-736
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• 2022

In this study, monthly precipitation forecasting models that can predict up to 12 months in advance were constructed for the Geum River basin, and two statistical techniques, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), were applied to the model construction. As predictor candidates, a total of 47 climate indices were used, including 39 global climate patterns provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 8 meteorological factors for the basin. Forecast models were constructed by using climate indices with high correlation by analyzing the teleconnection between the monthly precipitation and each climate index for the past 40 years based on the forecast month. In the goodness-of-fit test results for the average value of forecasts of each month for 1991 to 2021, the MLR models showed -3.3 to -0.1% for the percent bias (PBIAS), 0.45 to 0.50 for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and 0.69 to 0.70 for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), whereas, the ANN models showed PBIAS -5.0~+0.5%, NSE 0.35~0.47, and r 0.64~0.70. The mean values predicted by the MLR models were found to be closer to the observation than the ANN models. The probability of including observations within the forecast range for each month was 57.5 to 83.6% (average 72.9%) for the MLR models, and 71.5 to 88.7% (average 81.1%) for the ANN models, indicating that the ANN models showed better results. The tercile probability by month was 25.9 to 41.9% (average 34.6%) for the MLR models, and 30.3 to 39.1% (average 34.7%) for the ANN models. Both models showed long-term predictability of monthly precipitation with an average of 33.3% or more in tercile probability. In conclusion, the difference in predictability between the two models was found to be relatively small. However, when judging from the hit rate for the prediction range or the tercile probability, the monthly deviation for predictability was found to be relatively small for the ANN models.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.446-461
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• 2020

Numerical simulations of CIEMAT column test in Spain are performed to investigate the coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) behavior of MX80 bentonite pellets using TOUGH2-FLAC3D. The heater power and injection pressure of water in the numerical simulations are identical to those in the laboratory test. To investigate the applicability of the thermo-hydraulic (TH) model used in TOUGH2 code to prediction of the coupled TH behavior, the simulation results are compared with the observations of temperature and relative humidity with time. The tendencies of the coupled behavior observed in the test are well represented by the numerical models and the simulator in terms of temperature and relative humidity evolutions. Moreover, the performance of the models for the reproduction and prediction of the coupled TH behavior is globally satisfactory compared with the observations. However, the calculated stress change is relatively small and slow due to the limitations of the simple elastic and swelling pressure model used in numerical simulations. It seems that the two models are insufficient to realistically reproduce the complex coupled THM behavior in the bentonite pellets.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.12
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• pp.1077-1087
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• 2015

The levee protect lifes, houses, and properties by blocking overflow of river. The revetment is forced to be covered on the slope of levee in order to prevent erosion. The stability of revetment is very important enough to directly connected to the stability of levee. In this study, the weak points of revetment on meandering channel were found by movable revetment experiment and the velocity and the water surface elevation (WSE) were measured at main points. The 3-D numerical simulations were performed under same conditions with experiment. And unclear flow characteristics by the limit of measuring instruments were analyzed through numerical simulation. Consequently, the section of large wall shear stress and the failure section are almost the same. Despite of small wall shear stress, the revetments located at right bank were carried away because of circulation zone due to secondary flow by meandering. With existing riprap design formula, the sizes of riprap determined using maximum local velocity were 1.5~4.7 times greater than them using mean velocity. As a result of this study, it is necessary to calculate the size of riprap in other ways for meandering and straight channel. At a later study, if the weighted value considered the radius of curvature and shape of hydraulic structure is applied to riprap design formula, it is expected that the size of revetment was evaluated rationally and accurately.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.65-76
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• 2015

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the multi-lateral 'cap and trade' system endorsed by the Kyoto Protocol. CDM allows developed (Annex I) countries to buy CER credits from New and Renewable (NE) projects of non-Annex countries, to meet their carbon reduction requirements. This in effect subsidizes and promotes NE projects in developing countries, ultimately reducing global greenhouse gases (GHG). To be registered as a CDM project, the project must prove 'additionality,' which depends on numerous factors including the adopted technology, baseline methodology, emission reductions, and the project's internal rate of return. This makes it difficult to determine ex ante a project's acceptance as a CDM approved project, and entails sunk costs and even project cancellation to its project stakeholders. Focusing on hydro power projects and employing UNFCCC public data, this research developed a prediction model using logistic regression and CART to determine the likelihood of approval as a CDM project. The AUC for the logistic regression and CART model was 0.7674 and 0.7231 respectively, which proves the model's prediction accuracy. More importantly, results indicate that the emission reduction amount, MW per hour, investment/Emission as crucial variables, whereas the baseline methodology and technology types were insignificant. This demonstrates that at least for hydro power projects, the specific technology is not as important as the amount of emission reductions and relatively small scale projects and investment to carbon reduction ratios.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.12
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• pp.1285-1294
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• 2021

In recent years, as rainfall is concentrated and rainfall intensity increases worldwide due to climate change, the scale of flood damage is increasing. Rainfall of a previously unobserved magnitude falls, and the rainy season lasts for a long time on record. In particular, these damages are concentrated in ASEAN countries, and at least 20 million people among ASEAN countries are affected by frequent flooding due to recent sea level rise, typhoons and torrential rain. Korea supports the domestic flood warning system to ASEAN countries through various ODA projects, but the communication network is unstable, so there is a limit to the central control method alone. Therefore, in this study, an artificial intelligence-based flood prediction model was developed to develop an observation station that can observe water level and rainfall, and even predict and warn floods at once at one observation station. Training, validation and testing were carried out for 0.5, 1, 2, 3, and 6 hours of lead time using the rainfall and water level observation data in 10-minute units from 2009 to 2020 at Junjukbi-bridge station of Seolma stream. LSTM was applied to artificial intelligence algorithm. As a result of the study, it showed excellent results in model fit and error for all lead time. In the case of a short arrival time due to a small watershed and a large watershed slope such as Seolma stream, a lead time of 1 hour will show very good prediction results. In addition, it is expected that a longer lead time is possible depending on the size and slope of the watershed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.119-132
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• 2012

The unmanaged abandoned concrete roads are vulnerable toward the issues on soil and water pollution, which requires flexible managing method such as eco-corridor after the process of ecological restoration. Among various alternations of abandoned concrete-paved roads, ecological restoration technique may be the most suitable method in sites including high quality of natural environment. Therefore, as in Young dong province, GyungBu express highway (227.24~229.04km), which is near to Hwang-gan IC, the survey to measure its effect of soil under the paving and water pollution by abandoned concrete roads was discussed. Then, the restoration method of plantings of landscape trees and hydro-seeding methods of artificial soil media was appraised through consecutive monitoring. The soil adequacy analysis shows lower percentage of heavy metal substance in each depth level compared to standard limit stated by the Ministry of Environment, along with low concerns raised after the analysis on heavy metal content of the spilled water on the concrete roads. Meanwhile, Korean Weigela (Weigela subsessilis L.H. Baily) was found to be withered in small-scale landscape trees planting sites. Among the seeding plants. the family of leguminosae, Silene armeria, Dendranthema boreale, Caryopteris incana and Aster yomena show good establishment results. Overall studies on planting of small and large landscape trees, planting method of container plants, planting method of ground cover plants, and germination and development trend of seeding plants of the experimental restoration site on abandoned concrete roads are revealing specific trends in the way landscape woody plants establishment and growth. Finally, this study suggests further studies and survey on varied plant restoration methods on abandoned concrete-roads for developed design guidelines of their methods.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.116-124
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• 2023

As the flood damage on small streams increase due to the increase in frequency of extreme climate events, the need to measure hydraulic data of them has increased for disaster risk management. National Disaster Management Institute, Ministry of Interior and Safety develops CADMT, a CCTV-based automatic discharge measurement technology, and operates pilot small streams to verify its performance and develop disaster risk management technology. The research selects two small streams such as the Neungmac and the Jungsunpil streams to develop the Nomograph by using the 4-Parameter Logistic method using only the observed rainfall data from the Automatic Weather System operated by the Korea Meteorological Agency closest to the small streams and discharge data collected by using the CADMT. To evaluate developed Nomograph, the research forecasts floods discharges in each small stream and compares the result with the observed discharges. As a result of the evaluations, the forecasted value is found to represent the observed value well, so if more accurate observed data are collected and the Nomograph based on it is developed in the future, the high-accuracy flood prediction and warning will be possible.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.11
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• pp.923-929
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• 2022

The Chuncheon Mullori area is an underprivileged area of water welfare where local water supply is not supplied, and it is supplying water to the villages with small water supply facilities using lateral flow and groundwater as water sources. This is an area with poor water supply conditions, such as relying on water trucks due to water shortages during the recent severe drought. Therefore, in order to solve the problem of water shortage during drought and to prepare for the increasing water demand, a sand dam was installed along the valley, and this facility has been operating since May 2022. In this study, repeated simulations were performed according to the hydraulic conductivity of the filler material and the storage coefficient value for the inflow condition for about two years from mid-March 2020 to mid-March 2022. For each case, the amount of discharge through the perforated drain pipe was calculated. Overall, as the hydraulic conductivity increased, the amount of discharge and its ratio increased. However, when the hydraulic conductivity of the second floor was relatively low, the amount of discharge increased and then decreased as the hydraulic conductivity of the third floor increased. This is considered to be due to the fact that the water level was kept low due to the rapid drainage compared to the net inflow into the third floor because the water permeability of the third floor and the drainage coefficient of the drain pipe were large. As a result of simulating the flow of the open channel in the upper part of the sand dam as a hypothetical groundwater layer with very high hydraulic conductivity, the decrease in discharge rate was slower than the increase in the hydraulic conductivity of the hypothetical layer, but it was clearly shown that the discharge volume decreased relatively as the hydraulic conductivity of the virtual layer increased.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.43-51
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• 2006

New renewable energy information becomes one of the greatest issues all over the world because of serious environment problems and limited fossil resources. The new renewable energy source information system is treated seriously for efficient management and distribution as dealing with these energy problems. However, it is difficult to manage and utilize new renewable energy information because gathering and surveying information is progressed individually in each research field. Therefore this paper will establish ISP(Information Strategy Planning) and propose the basic management system based-on GIS to analyze new renewable energy such as solar energy, wind power, small hydro, biomass, geothermal etc. and build the integration management system. The proposed integration management system can provide spatial analysis using thematic map, data search, data import/export and interpolation about users' queries.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.1-8
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• 2019

In this study, the effects of the characteristics of droplets of water spray on suppression of fire were analyzed numerically using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) 6.5.2. Additionally, the fire suppression characteristics by the water spray nozzle, including the extinguishing coefficient (EC), droplet size distribution function (SDF), median volumetric diameter (MVD), and droplets per second (DPS), were evaluated in terms of the decreasing normalized heat release rate (HRR) curve and cooling time. It was observed that with increase in the EC, the normalized HRR curve decreased rapidly, and the changing MVD affected the suppression of fire. In case of mono-disperse, the normalized HRR curve decreased slowly with the increase in DPS. On the contrary, in case of multi-disperse, the normalized HRR curve decreased rapidly even with a small increase in DPS.