• Title/Summary/Keyword: Slope prediction model

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Extracting the Distribution Potential Area of Debris Landform Using a Fuzzy Set Model (퍼지집합 모델을 이용한 암설지형 분포 가능지 추출 연구)

  • Wi, Nun-Sol;JANG, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.77-91
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    • 2017
  • Many debris landforms in the mountains of Korea have formed in the periglacial environment during the last glacial stage when the generation of sediments was active. Because these landforms are generally located on steep slopes and mostly covered by vegetation, however, it is difficult to observe and access them through field investigation. A scientific method is required to reduce the survey range before performing field investigation and to save time and cost. For this purpose, the use of remote sensing and GIS technologies is essential. This study has extracted the potential area of debris landform formation using a fuzzy set model as a mathematical data integration method. The first step was to obtain information about the location of debris landforms and their related factors. This information was verified through field observation and then used to build a database. In the second step, we conducted the fuzzy set modeling to generate a map, which classified the study area based on the possibility of debris formation. We then applied a cross-validation technique in order to evaluate the map. For a quantitative analysis, the calculated potential rate of debris formation was evaluated by plotting SRC(Success Rate Curve) and calculating AUC(Area Under the Curve). The prediction accuracy of the model was found to be 83.1%. We posit that the model is accurate and reliable enough to contribute to efficient field investigation and debris landform management.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Li-Ion Battery Based on Charge Voltage Characteristics (충전 전압 특성을 이용한 리튬 이온 배터리의 잔존 수명 예측)

  • Sim, Seong Heum;Gang, Jin Hyuk;An, Dawn;Kim, Sun Il;Kim, Jin Young;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.313-322
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    • 2013
  • Batteries, which are being used as energy sources in various applications, tend to degrade, and their capacity declines with repeated charging and discharging cycles. A battery is considered to fail when it reaches 80% of its initial capacity. To predict this, prognosis techniques are attracting attention in recent years in the battery community. In this study, a method is proposed for estimating the battery health and predicting its remaining useful life (RUL) based on the slope of the charge voltage curve. During this process, a Bayesian framework is employed to manage various uncertainties, and a Particle Filter (PF) algorithm is applied to estimate the degradation of the model parameters and to predict the RUL in the form of a probability distribution. Two sets of test data-one from the NASA Ames Research Center and another from our own experiment-for an Li-ion battery are used for illustrating this technique. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the slope can be a good indicator of the battery health and PF is a useful tool for the reliable prediction of RUL.

RAPID PREDICTION OF ENERGY CONTENT IN CEREAL FOOD PRODUCTS WITH NIRS.

  • Kays, Sandra E.;Barton, Franklin E.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1511-1511
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    • 2001
  • Energy content, expressed as calories per gram, is an important part of the evaluation and marketing of foods in developed countries. Currently accepted methods of measurement of energy by U.S. food labeling legislation include measurement of gross calories by bomb calorimetry with an adjustment for undigested protein and by calculation using specific factors for the energy values of protein, carbohydrate less the amount of insoluble dietary fiber, and total fat. The ability of NIRS to predict the energy value of diverse, processed and unprocessed cereal food products was investigated. NIR spectra of cereal products were obtained with an NIR Systems monochromator and the wavelength range used for analysis was 1104-2494 nm. Gross energy of the foods was measured by oxygen bomb calorimetry (Parr Manual No. 120) and expressed as calories per gram (CPGI, range 4.05-5.49 cal/g). Energy value was adjusted for undigested protein (CPG2, range 3.99-5.38 cal/g) and undigested protein and insoluble dietary fiber (CPG3, range 2.42-5.35 cal/g). Using a multivariate analysis software package (ISI International, Inc.) partial least squares models were developed for the prediction of energy content. The standard error of cross validation and multiple coefficient of determination for CPGI using modified partial least squares regression (n=127) was 0.060 cal/g and 0.95, respectively, and the standard error of performance, coefficient of determination, bias and slope using an independent validation set (n=59) were 0.057 cal/g, 0.98, -0.027 cal/g and 1.05 respectively. The PLS loading for factor 1 (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.92) had significant absorption peaks correlated to C-H stretch groups in lipid at 1722/1764 nm and 2304/2346 nm and O-H groups in carbohydrate at 1434 and 2076 nm. Thus the model appeared to be predominantly influenced by lipid and carbohydrate. Models for CPG2 and CPG3 showed similar trends with standard errors of performance, using the independent validation set, of 0.058 and 0.088 cal/g, respectively, and coefficients of determination of 0.96. Thus NIRS provides a rapid and efficient method of predicting energy content of diverse cereal foods.

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Ensembles of neural network with stochastic optimization algorithms in predicting concrete tensile strength

  • Hu, Juan;Dong, Fenghui;Qiu, Yiqi;Xi, Lei;Majdi, Ali;Ali, H. Elhosiny
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.205-218
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    • 2022
  • Proper calculation of splitting tensile strength (STS) of concrete has been a crucial task, due to the wide use of concrete in the construction sector. Following many recent studies that have proposed various predictive models for this aim, this study suggests and tests the functionality of three hybrid models in predicting the STS from the characteristics of the mixture components including cement compressive strength, cement tensile strength, curing age, the maximum size of the crushed stone, stone powder content, sand fine modulus, water to binder ratio, and the ratio of sand. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network incorporates invasive weed optimization (IWO), cuttlefish optimization algorithm (CFOA), and electrostatic discharge algorithm (ESDA) which are among the newest optimization techniques. A dataset from the earlier literature is used for exploring and extrapolating the STS behavior. The results acquired from several accuracy criteria demonstrated a nice learning capability for all three hybrid models viz. IWO-MLP, CFOA-MLP, and ESDA-MLP. Also in the prediction phase, the prediction products were in a promising agreement (above 88%) with experimental results. However, a comparative look revealed the ESDA-MLP as the most accurate predictor. Considering mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) index, the error of ESDA-MLP was 9.05%, while the corresponding value for IWO-MLP and CFOA-MLP was 9.17 and 13.97%, respectively. Since the combination of MLP and ESDA can be an effective tool for optimizing the concrete mixture toward a desirable STS, the last part of this study is dedicated to extracting a predictive formula from this model.

Mapping Landslide Susceptibility Based on Spatial Prediction Modeling Approach and Quality Assessment (공간예측모형에 기반한 산사태 취약성 지도 작성과 품질 평가)

  • Al, Mamun;Park, Hyun-Su;JANG, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.53-67
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the quality of landslide susceptibility in a landslide-prone area (Jinbu-myeon, Gangwon-do, South Korea) by spatial prediction modeling approach and compare the results obtained. For this goal, a landslide inventory map was prepared mainly based on past historical information and aerial photographs analysis (Daum Map, 2008), as well as some field observation. Altogether, 550 landslides were counted at the whole study area. Among them, 182 landslides are debris flow and each group of landslides was constructed in the inventory map separately. Then, the landslide inventory was randomly selected through Excel; 50% landslide was used for model analysis and the remaining 50% was used for validation purpose. Total 12 contributing factors, such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), elevation, forest type, forest timber diameter, forest crown density, geology, landuse, soil depth, and soil drainage were used in the analysis. Moreover, to find out the co-relation between landslide causative factors and incidents landslide, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio for individual class was extracted. Eventually, six landslide susceptibility maps were constructed using the Bayesian Predictive Discriminant (BPD), Empirical Likelihood Ratio (ELR), and Linear Regression Method (LRM) models based on different category dada. Finally, in the cross validation process, landslide susceptibility map was plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and tried to extract success rate curve. The result showed that Bayesian, likelihood and linear models were of 85.52%, 85.23%, and 83.49% accuracy respectively for total data. Subsequently, in the category of debris flow landslide, results are little better compare with total data and its contained 86.33%, 85.53% and 84.17% accuracy. It means all three models were reasonable methods for landslide susceptibility analysis. The models have proved to produce reliable predictions for regional spatial planning or land-use planning.

Search for Ultra-faint Dwarfs in the Halo of M60, Giant Elliptical Galaxy in Virgo

  • LEE, JEONG HWAN;LEE, MYUNG GYOON;JANG, IN SUNG
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.63.2-63.2
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    • 2016
  • One of the well-known problems in the lambda cold dark matter (${\Lambda}CDM$) models is a missing satellite problem. The slope of the mass function of low mass galaxies predicted by ${\Lambda}CDM$ models is much steeper than that based on the luminosity function of dwarf galaxies in the local universe. This implies that the model prediction is an overestimate of low mass galaxies, or that the current census of dwarf galaxies in the local universe may be an underestimate of dwarf galaxies. Previous studies of galaxy luminosity functions to address this problem are based mostly on the sample of galaxies brighter than Mv ~ -10 in the nearby galaxies. In this study we try to search for ultra-faint galaxies (UFDs), which are much fainter than those in the previous studies. We use multi-field HST ACS images of M60 in the archive. M60 is a giant elliptical galaxy located in the east part of the Virgo cluster, and hosts a large population of globular clusters and UCDs. Little is known about the dwarf galaxies in this galaxy. UFDs are much fainter, much smaller, and have lower surface brightness than normal dwarf galaxies so HST images of massive galaxies are an ideal resource. We present preliminary results of this search.

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Time-varient Slope Stability Model for Prediction of Landslide Occurrence (산사태 발생 예측을 위한 시변 사면안정해석 모형)

  • An, Hyunuk
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.33-33
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    • 2016
  • 산사태 발생 예측은 재해를 예방하고 대처하기 위한 가장 근본적이며 효과적인 방법이나, 과학기술의 발전과 많은 노력에도 불구하고 아직 산사태의 발생 장소와 시기를 예측하는 것은 매우 어려운 일이다. 산사태 발생 예측 기법은 크게 경험론적 지수기법, 통계적 해석기법, 물리적 해석 기법으로 나뉠 수 있다. 이 세 방법은 각기 장단점이 있으나 일반적으로 후자로 갈수록 많은 데이터가 요구되고, 해석에 시간이 필요하며, 보다 신뢰할만한 결과를 도출할 수 있다. 경험론적 지수 기법은 국내에서 실무적으로 널리 활용되고 있으며, 통계적 해석기법에 관한 연구도 수행된 바 있다. 하지만 이 두 방법론은 일정량 또는 일정강도 이상의 강우 발생 시 산사태의 발생 위험도를 공간적으로 예측할 수 있으나, 산사태의 발생 시점과 연속적인 강우량 또는 강우강도의 관계를 정량적으로 분석하기 힘든 한계가 있어 최근에는 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위해 최근 무한사면안정 모형과 토양수분침투 모형을 결합한 시변 사면안정모형들이 활용되기 시작하고 있다. 대표적으로는 TRIGRS가 있으며, 이 모형에서는 선형화한 1차원 Richards 방정식의 해석해를 활용하여 토양수분량을 계산한 후 이 정보를 무한사면안정모형에 반영하여 시변적인 사면안정도를 구하고 있다. 하지만 Richards 방정식을 선형화하기 위해서 제한된 토양수분-압력 관계식이 사용되며, GUI가 제공되지 않아 전처리 및 후처리가 번거로운 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 한계를 개선하기 위해 3차원 Richards방정식을 수치적으로 계산하여 보다 다양한 토양수분-압력 모형과 초기조건을 반영할 수 있게 하였다. 또한 GUI를 지원하여 사용자가 보다 손쉽게 해석모형을 사용할 수 있도록 하였다.

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Field measurement and numerical simulation of snow deposition on an embankment in snowdrift

  • Ma, Wenyong;Li, Feiqiang;Sun, Yuanchun;Li, Jianglong;Zhou, Xuanyi
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.453-469
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    • 2021
  • Snow accumulation on the road frequently induces a big traffic problem in the cold snowy region. Accurate prediction on snow distribution is fundamental for solving drifting snow disasters on roads. The present study adopts the transient method to simulate the wind-induced snow distribution on embankment based on the mixture multiphase model and dynamic mesh technique. The simulation and field measurement are compared to confirm the applicability of the simulation. Furthermore, the process of snow accumulation is revealed. The effects of friction velocity and snow concentration on snow accumulation are analyzed to clarify its mechanism. The results show that the simulation agrees well with the field measurement in trends. Moreover, the snow accumulation on the embankment can be approximately divided into three stages with time, the snow firstly deposited on the windward side, then, accumulation occurs on the leeward side which induced by the wake vortex, finally, the snow distribution reaches an equilibrium state with the slope of approximately 7°. The friction velocity and duration have a significant influence on the snow accumulation, and the vortex scale directly affected the snow deposition range on the embankment leeward side.

Synthetic storm sewer network for complex drainage system as used for urban flood simulation

  • Dasallas, Lea;An, Hyunuk;Lee, Seungsoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.142-142
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    • 2021
  • An arbitrary representation of an urban drainage sewer system was devised using a geographic information system (GIS) tool in order to calculate the surface and subsurface flow interaction for simulating urban flood. The proposed methodology is a mean to supplement the unavailability of systematized drainage system using high-resolution digital elevation(DEM) data in under-developed countries. A modified DEM was also developed to represent the flood propagation through buildings and road system from digital surface models (DSM) and barely visible streams in digital terrain models (DTM). The manhole, sewer pipe and storm drain parameters are obtained through field validation and followed the guidelines from the Plumbing law of the Philippines. The flow discharge from surface to the devised sewer pipes through the storm drains are calculated. The resulting flood simulation using the modified DEM was validated using the observed flood inundation during a rainfall event. The proposed methodology for constructing a hypothetical drainage system allows parameter adjustments such as size, elevation, location, slope, etc. which permits the flood depth prediction for variable factors the Plumbing law. The research can therefore be employed to simulate urban flood forecasts that can be utilized from traffic advisories to early warning procedures during extreme rainfall events.

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Change Prediction of Future Forestland Area by Transition of Land Use Types in South Korea (로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적의 공간변화 예측에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn;PARK, So-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 2021
  • This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.