• 한국측량학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.113-122
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• 2017

Natural disasters caused by climate change are increasing globally. There are few studies on the quantitative analysis methods for predicting damages in the island area due to sea level rise. Therefore, it is necessary to study the damage prediction analysis method using the GIS which can quantitatively analyze. In this paper, we analyze the cause and status of sea level rise, quantify the vulnerability index, establish an integrated terrestrial modeling method of the ocean and land, and establish a method of analyzing the damage area and damage scale due to sea level rise using GIS and the method of making the damage prediction figure was studied. In order to extract the other affected areas to sea level rise are apart of the terrain model is generated by one requires a terrain modeling of target areas are offshore and vertical reference system differences in land, found the need for correction by a tidal observations and geoid model there was. Grading of terrain, coastline erosion rate, coastal slope, sea level rise rate, and even average by vulnerable factors due to sea level rise indicates that quantitative damage prediction is possible due to sea level rise in the island area. In the case of vulnerable areas extracted by GIS, residential areas and living areas are concentrated on the coastal area due to the nature of the book area, and field survey shows that coastal changes and erosion are caused by sea level rise or tsunami.

• 대기
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.317-329
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• 2017

Ocean mixed layer (OML) depth affects diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) induced by change of solar radiation absorption and heat budget in ocean. The diurnal SST variation can lead to convection over the ocean, which can impact on localized precipitation both over coastal and inland. In this study, we investigate the OML characteristics affecting the diurnal cycle of SST for the Korean Peninsula and surrounding areas. To analyze OML characteristics, HYCOM oceanic mixed layer depth (MLD) and wind field at 10 m from ERA-interim during 2008~2016 are used. In the winter, MLD is deeply formed when the strong wind field is located on perpendicular to continental slope over deep seafloor areas. Besides, cooling SST-induced vertical mixing in OML is reinforced by dry cold air originated from Siberia. The OML in summer is shallowly distributed about 20 m. In order to estimate the impact of OML model in high resolution NWP model, four experimental simulations are performed. At this time, the prognostic scheme of skin SST is applied in NWP to simulate diurnal SST. The simulation results show that CNTL (off-OML) overestimates diurnal cycle of SST, while EXPs (on-OML) indicate similar results to observations. The prediction performance for precipitation of EXPs shows improvement compared with CNTL over coastal as well as inland. This results suggest that the application of the OML model in summer season can contribute to improving the prediction for performance of SST and precipitation over coastal area and inland.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.439-447
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 산사태 축소 모형 장치에 레이저 센서와 진동 센서를 설치하여 강우에 의한 사면 붕괴 시 토사의 미세 변위를 조기에 감지하여 붕괴 위험이 높은 사면에 대한 적절한 대책 마련과 사면 붕괴로 인한 피해를 최소화하기 위한 산사태 발생 시점을 예측하고자 실험을 실시하였다. 또한, 산사태 축소모형 실험을 통해 강우에 의한 토층의 거동 특성 및 간극수압과 수분과 같은 함수비 변화 특성을 분석하였다. 화강암의 풍화토로 인공사면을 조성한 다음 강우 조건을 200mm/hr와 400mm/hr로 달리하여 이에 따른 함수비(수압, 수분) 변화를 측정하고 지표 변위를 분석하기 위해 레이저 센서와 진동 센서를 적용하였으며, 영상분석을 위해 비디오 촬영을 하여 변위 발생시간을 상호 비교 분석하였다. 실험 결과 수분함량은 강우강도가 클수록 한계값 도달시간이 짧게 소요되는 것으로 나타났으며, 간극수압은 강우강도가 클수록 간극수압의 증가 시간이 짧은 것으로 나타났다. 산사태 모형실험은 현장 조건을 충분히 반영하지는 못하지만 진동 센서를 이용한 변위 발생 인지 시간을 측정한 결과 붕괴시점이 레이저 센서를 이용한 방법보다 보다 빠른 것으로 나타났다. 산사태 발생 시 센서를 이용한 지반변위 측정은 지속적인 연구를 수행할 경우 사면붕괴 예측 및 피해 저감 그리고 계측산업 활성화의 기초 자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.261-272
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• 2012

In this study, climate variability was predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under two different scenarios (current trends scenario; SC1 and managed scenario; SC2) for future urban growth over the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA). We used the urban growth model, SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-Shade) to predict the future urban growth in SMA. As a result, the difference of urban ratio between two scenarios was the maximum up to 2.2% during 50 years (2000~2050). Also, the results of SLEUTH like this were adjusted in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to analysis the difference of the future climate for the future urbanization effect. By scenarios of urban growth, we knew that the significant differences of surface temperature with a maximum of about 4 K and PBL height with a maximum of about 200 m appeared locally in newly urbanized area. However, wind speeds are not sensitive for the future urban growth in SMA. These results show that we need to consider the future land-use changes or future urban extension in the study for the prediction of future climate changes.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.145-150
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• 2005

사면 붕괴를 예측하기 위해서 적당한 수학적 모델을 선택하는 것은 매우 유용하다. 시간열로 실시간 계측된 자료를 통하여 합리적인 사면붕괴 예측용 수학모델을 선정할수 있다. 3차 방정식을 이용한2가지 형태의 이론적 모델이 이 연구에서 사용되었다(Polynomial 및 Growth형). 사면의 변위각 및 침하를 계측할 수 있는 계측기가 느릅재 및 북실 현장에 적용되어 모델의 적용가능성을 점검하였다. 그 결과 계측 자료와 두 가지 수학모델과 아주 높은 일치성을 보였다.

• 농촌계획
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.171-179
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• 2015

The objectives of this research have been focussed on 1) developing prediction techniques for the flash flood and landslide based on rainfall prediction data in agricultural area and 2) developing an integrated forecasting system for the abrupt disasters using USN based real-time disaster sensing techniques. This study contains following steps to achieve the objective; 1) selecting rainfall prediction data, 2) constructing prediction techniques for flash flood and landslide, 3) developing USN and communication network protocol for detecting the abrupt disaster suitable for rural area, & 4) developing mobile application and SMS based early warning service system for local resident and tourist. Local prediction model (LDAPS, UM1.5km) supported by Korean meteorological administration was used for the rainfall prediction by considering spatial and temporal resolution. NRCS TR-20 and infinite slope stability analysis model were used to predict flash flood and landslide. There are limitations in terms of communication distance and cost using Zigbee and CDMA which have been used for existing disaster sensors. Rural suitable sensor-network module for water level and tilting gauge and gateway based on proprietary RF network were developed by consideration of low-cost, low-power, and long-distance for communication suitable for rural condition. SMS & mobile application forecasting & alarming system for local resident and tourist was set up for minimizing damage on the critical regions for abrupt disaster. The developed H/W & S/W for integrated abrupt disaster forecasting & alarming system was verified by field application.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2004년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2004
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• pp.264-267
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• 2004

In identifying flood vulnerable areas, three methods are generally deployed: the geomorphology method which is based on topographic features; the past evidence method based on observed data of past actual floods; and, prediction of flood areas through hydrologic models. This study aims to improve the prediction model of the geomorphology method through the application of fuzzy method in GIS modeling. The generally used GIS method of superimposing thematic map layers assumes crisp boundaries of the layers, which results in either risk-averse solutions or risk-taking solutions. The introduction of fuzzy concepts to processing of evaluation criteria (DEM, slope, aspect) solves this problem. As the result of applying the fuzzy method to a test site in the west Nak-Dong river, similar flood vulnerable areas were predicted as when using the conventional Boolean criteria. The resulting map, however, showed varying degree of uncertainty of flooding in these areas. This extra information is deemed to be valuable in taking phased actions during flood response, leading to a more effective and timely decision-making.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.75-91
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• 2022

This paper aims to show how to use several Machine Learning (ML) methods to estimate the TBM penetration rate systematically (TBM-PR). To this end, 1125 datasets including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), punch slope index (PSI), distance between the planes of weakness (DPW), orientation of discontinuities (alpha angle-α), rock fracture class (RFC), and actual/measured TBM-PRs were established. To evaluate the ML methods' ability to perform, the 5-fold cross-validation was taken into consideration. Eventually, comparing the ML outcomes and the TBM monitoring data indicated that the ML methods have a very good potential ability in the prediction of TBM-PR. However, the long short-term memory model with a correlation coefficient of 0.9932 and a route mean square error of 2.68E-6 outperformed the remaining six ML algorithms. The backward selection method showed that PSI and RFC were more and less significant parameters on the TBM-PR compared to the others.

• 한국해안해양공학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.176-185
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• 2003

해저관로가 사용 기간동안 안정적으로 그 기능을 다하도록 하기 위해서는 설계 시 국부세굴의 가능성을 주의 깊게 살펴보아야 한다. 관로가 침식성 해저바닥 위에 놓여지면 세굴이 일어나고 관로가 밑으로 쳐져서 팽팽하게 된다. 이로 인해 해저관로의 부분 흑은 전체가 파괴된다면 막대한 복구비용이 소요될 뿐만 아니라 해양오염을 초래할 수도 있다 본 논문에서는 실험을 통해서 해저관로 주변의 세굴특성을 알아보았다. 일정경사면 을 갖는 모형해빈상에 모형관로를 설치하고 파형경사를 달리해 가면서 실험을 수행하였다. 그리고 실험결과로부터 얻은 데이터를 이용하여 분석에 필요한 매개변수 값들을 산정 하였다. 상대세굴심과 KC수, 수정 Ursell수와의 상관관계를 분석하여, 국부세굴심에 대한 경험식을 제시하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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• pp.202-202
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• 2016

Despite the potentially major influence of rainstorm patterns on the prediction of shallow landslides, this relationship has not yet received significant attention. In this study, five typical temporal rainstorm patterns with the same cumulative amount and intensity components comprising Advanced (A1 and A2), Centralized (C), and Delayed (D1 and D2) were designed based on a historical rainstorm event occurred in 2006 in Mt. Jinbu area. The patterns were incorporated as the hydrological conditions into the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability Model (TRIGRS), in order to assess their influences on pore pressure variation and changes in the stability of the covering soil layer in the study area. The results revealed that not only the cumulative rainfall thresholds necessary to initiate landslides, but also the rate at which the factor of safety (FS) decreases and the time required to reach the critical state, are governed by rainstorm pattern. The sooner the peak rainfall intensity occurs, the smaller the cumulative rainfall threshold, and the shorter the time until landslide occurrence. Left-skewed rainfall patterns were found to have a greater effect on landslide initiation. More specifically, among the five different patterns, the Advanced storm pattern (A1) produced the most critical state, as it resulted in the highest pore pressure across the entire area for the shortest duration; the severity of response was then followed by patterns A2, C, D1, and D2. Thus, it can be concluded that rainfall patterns have a significant effect on the cumulative rainfall threshold, the build-up of pore pressure, and the occurrence of shallow landslides, both in space and time.